Well, this is no fun. Four US housing indices have released updates since Friday, with three of them showing worrying declines in the months they tracked.
The lone dissenting index belongs to the FHFA, which reported:
U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.5 percent decline in July was revised to a 0.7 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in August, U.S. prices fell 2.4 percent. The U.S. index is 13.6 percent below its April 2007 peak.
This index, calculated monthly, covers houses with mortgages backed by the GSEs, and according to our favorite housing-watcher is considered less reliable than the others.
Too bad, as the others are posting less hopeful numbers. First, the S&P/Case-Shiller:
Data through August 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in August compared to what was reported for July 2010. The 10-City Composite was up 2.6% and the 20-City Composite was up 1.7% from their levels in August 2009. Home prices decreased in 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites in August from their July levels.
“A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figures, as compared to July, indicating that the housing market continues to bounce along the recent lows,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Over the last four months both the 10- and 20-City Composites show slowing growth, after sustaining consistent gains since their April 2009 troughs.
Next, the CoreLogic:
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the first time this year. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined 1.5 percent in August 2010 compared to August 2009 and increased by 0.6 percent* in July 2010 compared to July 2009. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined 0.4 percent in August 2010.
Finally, and most ominously, from Clear Capital, which tracks prices all the way through October 11. It’s not as widely followed as the Case-Shiller or the CoreLogic indices, but it is the closest to real-time and its movements seem to anticipate the Case-Shiller fairly well:
This special Clear Capital Home Data Index (HDI) alert shows that national home prices have declined 5.9% in just two months and are now at the same level as in mid April 2010, two weeks prior to the expiration of the recent federal homebuyer tax credit. This significant drop in prices, in advance of the typical winter housing market slowdowns, paints an ominous picture that will likely show up in other home data indices in the coming months.
At least the rest of the world’s housing markets are doing better. For now, anyway.
Related links:
Underwater mortgages and US housing – FT Alphaville
US housing update – FT Alphaville
Housing lessons unlearned – FT Alphaville