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Markets Live transcript 13 Oct 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:18 on 13 Oct 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Joseph Cotterill

NH
hola
NH
it’s 11.03am
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
60 minutes of news, view and sophisticated analysis of the market
NH
hopefully
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right
NH
the line-up has changed again
NH
Tassel has been rotated back to the main news desk
NH
for a rest
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and replaced by
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some fresh legs
JC
Morning.
NH
hello Joseph
JC
Hi. And — yikes — look at the fabulous FTSE go
JC
up 71 points to 5,733
NH
I know
NH
it’s all a bit ridiculous really
NH
FOMC statement talks about QE
NH
dollar falls
NH
and when London wakes up
JC
(Outlaw, don’t worry – we’ll do some macro)
NH
everyone piles back into commodity stocks
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and whoosh
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
NH
up the market goes
NH
conversely
NH
if the dollar rallies, everyone sells mining stocks and we fall
NH
there’s not much more behind it than that
JC
So where is the mighty dollar trading this morning?
NH
hang on
NH
against the eurothingy
NH
trading at $1.3985
NH
and against the humble GBK
NH
it is $1.5853
NH
and thoughts on the FOMC Joseph?
JC
Well
JC
Let’s start with a wee bit of scepticism
JC
This, via Marc Ostwald at Monument
JC
In principle, the minutes add only very modest additional insights to those already provided by the Fed member speeches since the statement. Nevertheless a hefty debate is still likely at the November 3 meeting, given that the key passage on the possibility of more QE was rather more balanced than that which is currently discounted by current levels of Treasury yields, “Members generally thought that the statement should note that the Committee was prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate. Such an indication accorded with the members’ sense that such accommodation may be appropriate before long, but also made clear that any decisions would depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook.” Whether the assembled mass of financial market QE junkies perceive it in this fashion is an all together different issue. But if the FOMC is not to create havoc in financial markets, then Mr Bernanke had better offer some more substantive ‘guidance’ when he speaks later this week, particularly as there are clearly a number of FOMC members that will back whatever he decides (and as Mr Evans suggested last week, Mr Bernanke is currently “in the middle” in terms of the debate), even if they individually have some doubts.
NH
(Alphahunter – yes lots of comment. Wait for small cap corner)
NH
BB
NH
has got a big speech on Friday no?
NH
will we not here more then?
JC
(The 10yr Treasury thingy is yielding at 2.49 per cent atm, I think)
JC
Ah yeah, something in the Journal about this
JC
Ooh, it;s a Jon Hilsenrath, let’s have a look
JC
As a Princeton professor in the 1990s, Ben Bernanke lectured Japanese officials for mishandling their economy.

Today, Tokyo’s economic problems are more than academic for the Federal Reserve chairman. They are a window into his own situation as he stares at what could be a long period of slow growth, high unemployment and declining inflation in the U.S.

NH
Hilsenrath
NH
is FEDWIRE
NH
a central bank version of
NH
Pestowire
Top News from Top Sources. The BBC’s Business Editor, Robert Peston, has played in important role keeping the British public fully informed during these difficult times.
JC
Mr. Bernanke is preparing for a potentially important policy speech Friday, when he could detail his thinking on the Fed’s next steps… Buried in Mr. Bernanke’s earlier writings on Japan are hints of how he is shaping the Fed’s responses to today’s slow recovery.
NH
hmm.
NH
so that means given Jon’s previous
NH
BB will deffo be outlining his thinking
NH
any clues in the article?
JC
Not really, as I read it
JC
More that BB really, really doesn’t want to see another Japan
NH
OK
JC
Before becoming Fed chairman, Mr. Bernanke led a band of U.S. academics who argued that Japanese officials weren’t doing enough to jolt their economy out of its torpor. In a 1999 paper, Mr. Bernanke lashed out at Japanese officials, saying their country’s woes were the result of their own “self-induced” paralysis. Japan’s responses to deflation, he charged in atypically blunt terms, were confused, inconsistent and too cautious.
JC
Mr. Bernanke urged Japan to commit to keeping interest rates low until it got more inflation, and he defended novel ideas like buying government bonds with the understanding that fiscal policy makers would use the money thus raised to finance tax cuts to boost consumer demand.
NH
any more comment on FOMC?
JC
Turning to something more bullish on Treasuries, something from SocGen
JC
So the Fed wants to lower real interest rates by boosting short-term inflation expectations, as already argued by Bill Dudley et al. So any UST purchases will be accompanied by new economic targets of some kind. The least controversial would be a formal inflation target of 2%. However, that’d be a weak signal (with the Fed already implicitly aiming for a core PCE of 2%). Price level or GDP targeting would deliver far stronger messages, and appear more UST-friendly to us, and indeed more likely just now.

The Fed is delighted at the rally so far in USTs. The breakeven on the 5-year TIPS, the 1.63% Jan 2015, is close to its highest level since end June, at 1.30% (from a low of 85bp in August), while the real yield is under 0.4%. The Fed has gotten all this mileage without

JC
We opt for a bullish bias, still, as we think investors are going to say that, whatever the Fed does, it is too little too late. It will provide additional cash buying – so more ammunition to help duration longs. But any impact on inflation expectations is still too far away to want to price it just now.
NH
thanks for that
NH
a bit of macro to kicks things off this morning
NH
OKAY
NH
let’s cut now
NH
to some stock action
NH
and the banks
11:14AM
NH
the big news of the morning
NH
is the cash call from Standard Chartered
NH
£3.25bn
NH
deeply discounted
NH
and full underwritten
NH
which means money for old rope for the underwriters
JC
So much for the JPMorgan bid rumour then.
NH
indeed
NH
JP Morgan were in talks with StanChart
JC
Indeed. Just not on a cash offer. More a cash *call*.
JC
actually there won’t be too many burnt fingers in this one
NH
yes
NH
slight error
JC
the shares are holding up remarkably well
Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LSE): Last: 1,870, down 38.5 (-2.02%), High: 1,900, Low: 1,821, Volume: 10.56m
NH
well
NH
there’s a good reason for that
NH
every other Standard cash call
NH
has gone well
NH
in fact it has been a buy signal
NH
on top of that
NH
they looked to have moved quickly and got to the front of Basel III cash call queue
JC
fair point
JC
Amusing to see that Bank of Bob has been hit harder on this
NH
very
NH
they will need some more cash given some of the risk weighted assets they have
NH
of course
NH
Bank of Bob are terribly clever and won’t use a plain vanilla rights issue
NH
they will use some flashy mandatory convertible note flogged to investors on Mars
JC
Emoticon
Barclays Public Limited Company (BARC:LSE): Last: 289.44, down 5.31 (-1.80%), High: 292.00, Low: 280.00, Volume: 74.47m
NH
hang on
NH
what’s that
NH
Barclays Public Limited Company
NH
weird
JC
I’m waiting for the “Bank of Bob” name change, to be honest.
JC
It will happen
JC
Anyway, going back to Big Stan
JC
is the money really for Basel III?
NH
sort of
NH
my reading of the statement is that they wouldn’t be able to buy any more banks without a cash call
NH
so they raised the money
NH
and now they can
JC
smart, that.
JC
Any notes on this?
NH
hang on
NH
I have quite a bit of research on this one
NH
Right this is from Olivetree
NH
sums up the feeling in the City toward Standard
NH
Very simply – it has always been right to buy Standards on any capital raise as liquidity opporunity so compelling for UK PM’ particularly . The stock has consistently bounced off the 50 day moving average and we would anticipate this taking place again(1834). We will follow this trading idea with a more robust piece but strongly recommend buying here on this weakness.
NH
Having raised capital in Nov 2008 to ensure they could be stronger than peers, STAN has continued that theme with this capital raising to ensure they remain at the stong end relative to peers. It also flags that the ratios amd timetable demanded by the FSA are likely to be far stricter than the minimums required by Basel III. We see the European Banks sector continuing to underperform on the back of this as investors begin to ask who needs to be next to raise capital to ensure their ratios are not materially lower than peers. We would continue to avoid the Southern Europeans on this basis and the French Banks are likely to be looking nervously over their shareholders. DBK, even though it has raised capital, is likely to still have one of the lowest ratios in Europe at 8% and we would continue to avoid the name. We continue to believe that STAN is one of only a few genuine growth banks in Europe and if the shares weaken too much on the back of the rights has traditionally been the time to buy them.
NH
and I also have something from Jonathan Pierce
NH
the sector’s top rated analyst
NH
We can see the sense in raising capital – the core tier 1 ratio at June 2010 was only 9% on Basel 2 which looks low versus local banks in many of the countries in which Standard operates (e.g. private sector banks in Hong Kong, India and Singapore are nearer 11-12%). Furthermore, the RWA growth of the bank in H1 2010 was 18% annualised and while we view this as abnormally high, the ROTE of 20% and payout ratio of 35-40% can support at most low-teen growth in RWA moving forwards.
NH
Standard also highlights the considerable uncertainty that still surrounds Basel 3. It is not so much the impact of CRD3 and CRD4 on the group’s capital ratio – Standard puts this at 1% which is actually slightly lower than the impact we had calculated at 1.5% largely arising through additional RWA on market and counterparty risk. Rather, Standard points to the potential for sizeable procyclical buffers (particularly relevant to a bank operating in high growth markets) and the ability of national regulators like the the FSA to impose systemic capital surcharges and to accelerate the implementation timetable. We agree with both of these points and it is something we are more broadly concerned about in relation to the UK banks.
NH
That said, the announcement is still somewhat surprising. Standard will have at least 3 years to meet new BIS requirements and it could have limited the dividend or modestly slower the RWA growth in preference to boosting the equity tier 1 capital base. That it has chosen to raise external capital leaves shareholders exposed to similar action further down the line. Indeed, if Standard is to run with a permanently higher capital base, this will depress ROTE reducing the supported RWA growth, all else equal. It seems to be partly offsetting this by implying a cut in the payout ratio (see below) but the overall point is the same.
NH
Overall, we believe this would leave the group’s capital position looking robust and allow for double-digit RWA growth in the next few years, but we suspect this will surprise the market and the earnings accretion will leave the shares trading at or slightly above other non-Japan Asia financials based on 2011E PE. The trading statement itself doesn’t tell us much, although it seems that wholesale banking revenues might be a little ahead of our forecast with client driven income remaining in the high teens and own account income up in Q3. Consumer revenues look broadly consistent with our estimates. Unfortunately there is very little comment on expenses, a focus for the market following the 8% negative revenue cost gap in H1
NH
seems to me they must have a deal in mind
NH
but going back to Barclays for a moment
NH
the rumour in the market today
NH
is that they need to raise around £8bn
NH
which will be Bob’s big test
NH
well
NH
his first test as CEO
JC
As an aside on BARC – I wonder how that Protium thingy’s doing, what with all this grim US economic news
NH
good point
JC
Something to watch. Anyway, let’s move on
11:22AM
NH
Joseph
NH
ever got on the wrong bus?
JC
All the time
JC
why do you ask?
NH
because of this headline in the Daily Telegraph today
NH
ENRC billionaire was on ‘sex yacht’ seized by Turkey
NH
Now
NH
ENRC are under a bit of pressure at the moment over that mine
NH
they acquired in the Congo
NH
so the last thing they needed was this
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 935.00, up 21 (+2.30%), High: 936.50, Low: 922.50, Volume: 740.97k
NH
but it all looks innocent enough
NH
he just got on the wrong boat
NH
apparently
NH
A spokesman for Alexander Mashkevich, who co-founded the FTSE 100 miner and still owns 14.6pc of the company, confirmed to The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the businessman was present on the boat but not one of those arrested.

“He was on board,” said Roman Spektor, the Kazakhstani billionaire’s spokesman.

NH
“From our perspective he wasn’t involved in any immoral or criminal actions. It’s a real provocation. It’s a real dirty lie in order to discredit him, because he’s a well-known member of the worldwide Jewish community.”
NH
There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Mr Mashkevich, but the revelation is likely to be a further headache for ENRC, as the £12bn mining giant battles concerns over its corporate governance. Institutional investors last month questioned its judgement in buying mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo that had earlier been seized from a rival.
NH
anyway
JC
Those sex yachts are well-concealed compared to normal yachts I guess
NH
all very strange
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 934.00, up 20 (+2.19%), High: 936.50, Low: 922.50, Volume: 745.03k
JC
What are the miners doing this morning, in any case?
NH
up up up and away
NH
the hint of dollar devaluation sends them higher
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 2,843, up 106.5 (+3.89%), High: 2,843, Low: 2,766, Volume: 1.97m
Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,293, up 47.5 (+3.82%), High: 1,297, Low: 1,258, Volume: 4.49m
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO:LSE): Last: 3,994, up 132 (+3.42%), High: 4,000, Low: 3,910, Volume: 2.43m
Vedanta Resources PLC (VED:LSE): Last: 2,294, up 78 (+3.52%), High: 2,305, Low: 2,236, Volume: 664.20k
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO:LSE): Last: 1,284, up 35 (+2.80%), High: 1,294, Low: 1,264, Volume: 732.54k
JC
Taking a ride on Ben’s helicopter
NH
yep
NH
and one more thing on the miners
NH
a bit of RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
JC
Go on
Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LSE): Last: 1,042, up 43 (+4.30%), High: 1,044, Low: 1,011, Volume: 1.38m
NH
not sure what to make of this
NH
but after its recent troubles
NH
there’s a feeling that it could be vulnerable
NH
and as it happens
NH
there’s a rival next door
NH
Polymetal is a Russian gold and silver miner with operations and development projects in Russia and Kazakhstan. The Company produced 0.6 million of gold equivalent ounces in 2009 and is targeting to double its total production by 2012 mostly as a result of commissioning of the new projects, all of which are now under construction. A key element of Polymetal’s strategy is creation of processing hubs with the goal to ensure the most efficient and responsible utilization of financial and human capital by treating ores and concentrates from various sources at centralized locations.
NH
this lot
JC
Rather more pronounceable name too, I’d note.
NH
they are
NH
not a mouthful at all
NH
and talking of gold
NH
Goldman Scahs
JC
Goldfinger Sachs, you mean
JC
Having jacked up their gold price target to…
JC
$1,650/oz if I’m not mistaken
NH
indeed
NH
and as a result of that
NH
they have reworked their numbers and gone positive
NH
on a load of small cap metals companies
NH
here we go
NH
Initiating on Centamin and Euro Goldfields as Buys
We initiate on Centamin (CEY) and Euro Goldfields (EGU), two emerging
gold producers with significant resources (both target c.500koz Au (equiv)
production by 2014/15). A combination of permitting, financing and
production milestones are the catalysts for valuation. We have Buys on
both CEY and EGU, and respective 12-month price targets of 270p and
1,100p. Additionally, we initiate on African Barrick (ABG) with a 12-month
price target of 775p and a Neutral rating.
NH
Strong rand a headwind for South African stocks
The gold price rally has been accompanied by strengthening emerging
market currencies (vs. the US dollar). Consequently, we expect the rand
gold price to remain flat through 2010-2011, having a limited impact on the
earnings of South African stocks. We upgrade Anglo Gold to Neutral to
reflect its international exposure and the removal of its hedge positions.
NH
Stronger US recovery, ramp-up and permit issues risks to our view
A strengthening US recovery is likely to see the US dollar strengthen and
the gold price weaken. As our revised earnings expectations for our
coverage reflect in part the gold price, this scenario would be negative for
our coverage. Both CEY and EGU have significant build, commissioning
and ramp-up risks, in common with all major mining projects.
Centamin Egypt Ltd (CEY:LSE): Last: 182.00, up 10.2 (+5.94%), High: 183.00, Low: 176.30, Volume: 4.95m
NH
funny isn’t it
NH
the might Goldfinger following European Goldfields
European Goldfields Ltd (EGU:LSE): Last: 767.00, up 33 (+4.50%), High: 766.00, Low: 745.00, Volume: 34.04k
JC
On the other hand
JC
I’d note SocGen are less keen on gold equities
JC
Upgrade of gold price. Gold continues to perform strongly reaching a record high of $1,350/oz. Given that we believe the key factors contributing to the strength of gold are likely to remain in force in the medium term, such as the relative weakness of the US dollar, volatile economic recovery in the US and Europe, and concerns over the sustainability of China’s growth, we are increasing our medium-term gold price forecast.
JC
but…
JC
Structural changes in the demand for gold. China remains the only region where the physical consumption of gold in jewellery has been increasing; the growth of gold consumption elsewhere has become more heavily dependent on private investment. Further upside for gold consumption may come from state reserves, which so far have been rebalanced in favour of gold only modestly.

Rising value of gold is priced into gold equities. In the past five years, gold equities have tended to underperform physical gold, mainly owing to country-specific factors (unfavourable movements in exchange rate, cost inflation) or company-specific ones (failures to deliver on production, cost or capex targets). Compared with established medium- and large-size gold miners, we think gold ETFs often offer a better investment opportunity.

Stock preferences: Polyus Gold – top pick. In our gold universe, we consider Polyus
Gold as the only stock with attractive upside potential and valuation. We increase our PT
to $34.9 per GDR from $30.4. The company is looking to increase its gold output by 28%
in 2011 and offers the strongest medium-term growth potential at 18% CAGR for 2010-
15E including the Natalka project, and 10% CAGR if Natalka is excluded. We expect the
start of Natalka development will be announced in 4Q and that a listing on the LSE will
be achieved, which should serve as a strong positive catalyst.

JC
SocGen says invest in ETFs
JC
Fancy that
NH
ah
NH
funny they should say that
NH
it’s LME week
NH
and the big talking point there
NH
is how ETF’s could be distorting the commodity market
NH
this just in from RBS
NH

The annual London Metal Exchange Week is underway and optimism abounds. Thousands of metal producers, consumers, analysts and fund managers have converged upon London for the annual “mating season” festival. The mood is overtly bullish. Whilst financial markets continue to fret about upcoming QE2, currency or trade wars or the woes of Europe, metal markets are gung-ho about the prospects for prices.

At the root of the enthusiasm is that the massive bull market in metal prices in 2009 had little to do with macro events. It was driven by extraordinarily high Chinese commodity stockpiling, huge producer supply cutbacks and innovative stimulus schemes such as the cash-for-clunkers automobile subsidies. This time around the buzz on the metal markets has been driven by the likelihood of a new family of physically backed base metal Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in metals such as aluminium, copper and nickel.

NH
The precedent is already there. The family of physically backed gold, silver, platinum and palladium ETFs now have AUM of close to US$100bn. Investors worried about the debasing of fiat money and more pump priming leading down the road to inflation (it’s already in Asia where food price inflation is roaring away) are seeking avenues to get exposure to real assets. The enthusiasm trickle down from soaring precious metal prices to normally staid industrial metals is about to occur. Watch out, commodity prices across the board are about to get mainlined a shot of adrenalin.
NH
These ETFs which look to be progressively launched in 2011 have many issues, not least is the cost of storage. Precious metals are high value, low volume commodities where warehousing costs are a fraction of the unit cost. Industrial metals are very different. The costs of storing 1-2 million tonnes of aluminium let alone thousands of tonnes of copper, nickel and zinc would imply immediate costs. Rental costs for aluminium imply a hit of 4-6% per tonne. But aluminium companies such as Alcoa and Russian producer Rusal have said they will be happy to contribute metal from production to feed investor demand. I think that short term the launch of these ETFs will be price positive. It sterilises and quarantines metal off the market and brings in a new group of financial pin-stripe investors breathing life and liquidity into the metal contracts. Trouble is that the increase in metal prices will likely be met by salivating producers who will merely turn on the production taps. For example, Xstrata have this week announced that they are to reactivate 50% of their idled high cost Falcondo nickel operation in the Dominican Republic. I estimate that 0.200mtpa of nickel capacity or 13% of world supply is waiting in the wings to follow suit, let alone that of zinc and aluminium.
NH
anyway
NH
bored of mining
JC
Oh, what a shame Izzi isn’t in the office
NH
shall we do some more RAW?
11:36AM
JC
See her on commodity ETF distortion in posts passim
JC
But yep, more RAW please
NH
Reed again
NH
stock moving higher
Reed Elsevier PLC (REL:LSE): Last: 559.00, up 9.5 (+1.73%), High: 566.00, Low: 551.50, Volume: 4.53m
NH
and the bid rumours just won’t go away
JC
But not exactly euphoric.
NH
Wolters Kluwer mentioned again
NH
even though they are $4bn smaller
NH
also some chat doing the rounds
NH
about a board meeting today
NH
although
NH
everyone seems to be keeping stum
JC
(Lemmy – whole host of ‘em here – http://twitter.com/#!/chilean_miner )
NH
RTRS-WOLTERS KLUWER SPOKESWOMAN DECLINES COMMENT ON MARKET TALK OF REED ELSEVIER BID
NH
in fact
NH
that’s the same response from any Wolters board member at the moment
NH
some FT hacks have posed the question to others
NH
and the shutters just go up
NH
(tuna I think Reed have done their cash call but never say never)
JC
OK any more RAW though?
NH
just one more
Kesa Electricals plc (KESA:LSE): Last: 154.80, up 3.9 (+2.58%), High: 155.80, Low: 151.00, Volume: 10.64m
NH
punchy volume today
NH
the usual break-up bid rumours doing the rounds
NH
and talk that it could be a target for Best Buy
NH
as they embark on their grand European expansion plan
11:40AM
JC
Anyway
JC
Back to the wider market
JC
Still up, up, up by 69
JC
And yet…
Autonomy Corp Plc (AU.:LSE): Last: 1,431, down 13 (-0.90%), High: 1,454, Low: 1,426, Volume: 791.13k
NH
yes
NH
this is a very stick stock
JC
What’s going on?
NH
it won’t/can’t rally
NH
well I think today’s weakness
NH
is down to JPMorgan
NH
they have stuck a £10 target price on the stock
NH
Estimate downgrade cycle. While the company suggests that next
year’s estimates will only be marginally impacted, we believe we are
entering a negative downgrade cycle for estimates. This cycle in fact
started in FY 09 and has continued into FY10. With the absence of a
material acquisition, we believe this cycle is likely to continue into
FY11. Our estimate for FY11 remains unchanged at $1.08 with
consensus (Bloomberg) settling around $1.20-1.25.
NH
Delayed M&A. The prospect of an M&A transaction has, in our view,
limited the fall in the share price. We believe the Q4 warning indicates
that a deal is more likely to come next year. We estimate accretion of c.
15c on the acquisition which in our view will not be sufficient to offset
the underlying slowdown in the core business. We believe investors
should be concerned by management commentary that Autonomy may
acquire in a new area given the growing concerns about the core
business.
NH
Guidance lowered. Having given assurances at Q2 that H2 estimates
were achievable and that FY11 would be better than expected, we
believe the situation is far worse than investors expected. With little
predictability from one quarter to the next, it is hard to give much credit
to any FY11 forecasts at this stage.
• Lowering price target to £10. We lower our price target from £13 to
£10 which is based on a sector forward earnings multiple of 15x. Given
the negative earnings momentum, we find it hard to continue to justify a
premium rating. We recognize that our estimates remain well below
consensus and that a sector rating on consensus would imply a price of
£11.80
NH
but I also reckon
NH
this Deutsche Bank downgrade has really shaken people
NH
I have never seen someone so senior at a company
NH
go back into research
NH
and publish as quickly as the guy at Deutsche
JC
What role did he have at Autonomy again?
NH
his name is marc Geall and he was the head of IR and corporate strategy
NH
so he must have been at the company
NH
when they announced this big bond issue
NH
so his comments about the company
NH
have under invested
NH
and relied on the regulatory market too much
NH
(see today’s deal with the FSA)
NH
have real resonnance
NH
in my option
NH
(Blueskye he joined in June I think)
JC
Deal with the FSA? Are they making Margaret Cole fembots or something?
NH
the statement didn’t see a great deal
NH
AUTONOMY ENTERS INTO SEVEN FIGURE AGREEMENT WITH U.K. REGULATORY AUTHORITY

Cambridge, UK – 13 October 2010 – Autonomy Corporation plc (LSE: AU. or AU.L), a global leader in infrastructure software for the enterprise, today announced that it has entered into a multi-million dollar agreement with a UK regulatory authority responsible for financial industry oversight.

NH
more RNS spam
NH
company does what it is supposed to do
NH
and sell product
NH
requires a statement to the stock exchange
NH
anyway
NH
the pressure is clearly on the company to do a deal
11:46AM
NH
Anything you have been looking at Joseph
JC
Well, speaking of RNS spam
Man Group Plc (EMG:LSE): Last: 264.70, up 7.9 (+3.08%), High: 265.80, Low: 259.00, Volume: 4.21m
NH
spam
NH
why spam?
NH
great AHL reading overnight
JC
Good spam, true
NH
this fund is flying at the moment
NH
up 4.5% last week
NH
the quants are back!
NH
analysts reckon it’s back at the high water marks
JC
…And about to be crushed by Ben n’ QE, perhaps.
NH
well
NH
that’s the bear case
NH
although the market seems to have a trend for this flurry of QE
NH
unlike the first one
NH
(The Real TT would appear in Red not black. he’s an imposter)
NH
hang on
JC
Good point
NH
let me dig out some comment
NH
(lorcan it comes out the same time each week)
NH
this from Execution
NH
The strong performance of AHL since the end of September has reduced the distance to high water mark to around 2%. We estimate that around $8.9bn of FuM now qualifies for earning performance fees compared to only $0.2bn at the end of Apr’10. A further +5% performance from here would lead to around $100m in performance fees from AHL. Moreover, in view continued performance of AHL holds the key for a revival to private investor sales. While we have some reservations on the outlook given the potential negative impact from a further round of quantitative easing, the current share price of 257p does not in our view factor in any performance fees earned from AHL. Overall we believe the positives outweigh the risks and we reiterate our Buy recommendation
NH
and this
NH
from Oriel
NH
The strong run in the shares recently has been driven by a combination of the improving outlook for earnings for next year on the back of better investment returns at AHL and bid speculation.

The latest weekly NAV for one fund, which is not the biggest but is indicative, AHL
Diversified Futures is +4.5%. That should been set against the minimal 1% return for
the last 12 months but is still impressive. This performance is attributable among other things to their short dollar, long AUD and commodities positions.

NH
The main AHL fund tracked by the market is AHL Diversified which according to the
company will have done even better (not yet announced this week) as the Futures fund has a higher fee load. AHL overall is around 6% below its high water marks before this week and so this confirms the prospect of material performance fees for FY12.

Before then we still have to negotiate any QE2 stimulus which might hamper AHL as
QE1 is believed to have done already.

NH
The consensus for FY12E March is 38c which puts the PE at 10x already, yield 5.7%.
the shares have historically raded on much higher multiples but the last 2 years have
resulted in a de-rating.

Bid speculation: this may well remain a driver of the shares especially as Man’s
acquisition of GLG reduces the quant “black box” element but BNY Mellon has publicly denied that it is interested and any acquirer would in our view have to be a large asset manager.

NH
and Lemmy is right
NH
there is now a daily AHL tracker on the Man website
NH
so you can see how it has done everyday
NH
better than watching England anyway
11:50AM
NH
What’s the time?
JC
It is… just past 1150
NH
right
NH
what time are the JP Morgan numbers out?
NH
midday?
JC
Thereabouts
NH
just trying to fund the consensus number
NH
(Taxloss stop logging on as me)
NH
here it is
NH
US$ 0.89
NH
I have some further thoughts on this
NH
if you want to see them
JC
Let’s
NH
OK
NH
here we go
NH
Results kick off today with J.P. Morgan. This is a bell weather for the sector and will move the sector either way in my view. Investors recently have become more upbeat about US banks into numbers as a trading call. We estimate that the company will print reported EPS of US$ 0.96 for Q3 versus consensus of US$ 0.89. The key question is whether the numbers at the GOP level stabilise. The core PTPP is expected at around US$10.8bn which would essentially be flat on Q2. The broader industry trends to look out for will be volumes which despite a continued contraction in average volume growth, it is likely to be at a lower pace. Given the markets reaction to weak NII in Q2 clearly banks will have been looking to protect margins by reinvesting excess liquidity. We also continue to expect positive credit metrics with loan loss provisions helped by sizeable albeit reducing reserve releases. Aside from that the market will also be closely monitoring trends in the investment bank.

NH
The read across is often difficult to make as it is often not directly comparable, but that doesn’t stop the market in taking a view. Continued positive asset quality metrics in the US no doubt will be seen as a positive read across for RBS and HSBC to some extent. However, the main read across will be on investment banking revenue trends for the Europeans. Firstly on equities, any derivative led recovery will be viewed as a positive read across for the French banks, whilst any surprise uptick in credit will be seen as positive for DBK and BARC. Worth noting that the level of interest in DBK has materially increased whilst views on BARC remain somewhat more polarised. That said a good debt number from JPM and flat core sequential revenues would lift BARC near term, although the market will continue to fret about costs. Elsewhere, we have seen some tentative buying in CSGN. I think expectations are ultra low here and they need to tick 3 boxes; build book value, not disappoint in the private bank and a solid IB performance. If JPM disappoint at the GOP level I think the sector will struggle to catch a bid and it will certainly dampen enthusiasm to chase the European names into numbers.
NH
that was from a sector watcher
NH
and here’s a bit more
NH
from another sector watcher
NH
actually
NH
it’s dull I will miss it
11:54AM
JC
It is pretty dull
JC
So let’s put the telly on
NH
good idea
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (BSY:LSE): Last: 707.00, up 1 (+0.14%), High: 708.00, Low: 706.50, Volume: 4.26m
JC
Oh good, let’s look at the Times TV guide
NH
yes
NH
very good this
NH
sadly hidden behind the paywall
NH
Self-Service Broadcasting

Mark Thompson’s campaign against News Corp’s Sky offer is a serious error

NH
BBC One, BBC Two, BBC Three, BBC Four, BBC HD, BBC News Channel, BBC Parliament, CBBC, CBeebies, BBC America, BBC Canada, BBC Kids, BBC Prime, BBC Knowledge.

BBC Radio 1, BBC Radio 2, BBC Radio 3, BBC Radio 4, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio Switch, BBC 1Xtra, BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra, BBC 6 Music, BBC Radio 7, BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio nan Gàidheal, BBC Radio Wales, BBC Radio Cymru, BBC Radio Ulster, BBC Radio Foyle, BBC Essex, BBC Radio Northampton, BBC Radio Suffolk, BBC Three Counties Radio, BBC Radio Derby, BBC Radio Leicester, BBC Radio Nottingham, BBC London 94.9, BBC Tees.

BBC Radio Cumbria, BBC Newcastle, BBC Radio Manchester, BBC Radio Lancashire, BBC Radio Merseyside, BBC Radio Berkshire, BBC Oxford, BBC Radio Solent, BBC Radio Kent, BBC Surrey, BBC Sussex, BBC Radio Cornwall, BBC Radio Devon, BBC Guernsey, BBC Jersey, BBC Radio Bristol, BBC Radio Gloucestershire, BBC Wiltshire, BBC Somerset, BBC Radio Leeds, BBC Radio Sheffield, BBC Radio York, BBC Radio Humberside, BBC Lincolnshire, BBC WM, BBC Hereford and Worcester, BBC Radio Shropshire, BBC Radio Stoke and BBC.co.uk.

The man in overall charge of all these media outlets, their Director-General, has finally spoken out about his concern that too much media power might reside in one organisation. Extraordinarily, however, Mark Thompson was not expressing his fears about the growth of the BBC. He was instead talking about News Corporation, the parent company of The Times. The crushing weight of Mr Thompson’s responsibilities has clearly suffocated his sense of irony.

By lending his name to the campaign to prevent News Corp from purchasing those Sky shares that it does not already own, Mr Thompson has made a serious and surprising error.

NH
very good that I thought
NH
and this is turning a bit ugly
JC
So is Rupert rattled by the BBC’s letter to Vince?
NH
lots of mud being chucked around
NH
Is Mr Murdoch
NH
the slightest bit worried
NH
the BSKyB bid is going to be burried
NH
in the regulatory system for years?
JC
Vince needs something to please LibDem activists around about now, actually
NH
yeah
NH
hand this deal over to Ofcom and the CC
NH
wash his hands of it
NH
and then blame them when it gets approved
NH
a couple of years down the line
11:58AM
NH
Some breaking news
NH
Reuters) – The International Cricket Council
(ICC) has not found any “compelling evidence” of corruption against any player or support staff in the Sept. 17 one-day match between England and Pakistan at The Oval.

The ICC said on Wednesday the investigation was complete for now but if new and corroborating evidence came to light, its Anti-Corruption and Security Unit (ACSU) would re-open the case.

NH
looks to have been a comprehensive review
11:58AM
JC
JPM is out
JC
$1.01
JC
surprise, surprise, a beat
JC
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN�CHASE REPORTS THIRD-QUARTER 2010 NET INCOME OF $4.4 BILLION, OR $1.01 PER SHARE, ON REVENUE1 OF $24.3 BILLION
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-AUTO ALERT – JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO Q3 SHR $1.01
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-AUTO ALERT – JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO Q3 SHR VIEW $0.90 — THOMSON REUTERS I/B/E/S
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO SAYS ON TRACK TO HIRE OVER 10,000 PEOPLE IN THE U.S. IN 2010
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Q3 INVESTMENT BANK NET REVENUE WAS $5.4 BILLION
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO SAYS TIER 1 CAPITAL RATIOS WERE 11.9% AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2010
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO SAYS NONPERFORMING ASSETS TOTALED $17.7 BILLION AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2010
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO SAYS TIER 1 COMMON RATIOS WERE 9.5% AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2010
JC
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO QTRLY PROVISION FOR CREDIT LOSSES $3,223 MLN
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Q3 RETAIL FINANCIAL SERVICES NET REVENUE WAS $7.6 BILLION
11:58 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Q3 CARD SERVICES NET REVENUE WAS $4.3 BILLION
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPM SAYS TOTAL FIRMWIDE CREDIT RESERVES DECLINED TO $35.0 BLN, RESULTING IN A FIRMWIDE COVERAGE RATIO OF 5.1% OF TOTAL LOANS
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPM’S DIMON SAYS EXPECT MORTGAGE CREDIT LOSSES TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL QUARTERS
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPM’S DIMON SAYS IF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WORSEN, MORTGAGE CREDIT LOSSES COULD TREND HIGHER
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO SAYS QTRLY MORTGAGE REPURCHASE RESERVES INCREASED $1.0 BILLION PRETAX
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPM’S DIMON SAYS “WE EXPECT CREDIT CARD NET CHARGE-OFFS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE NEXT QUARTER”
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO Q3 TOTAL NET REV $23.82 BLN
11:59 13Oct10 RTRS-JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO Q3 SHR VIEW $0.90, REV VIEW $24.64 BLN — THOMSON REUTERS I/B/E/S
NH
looks like a beat
NH
market not really moving on it
NH
up 73 points at 5,735
NH
all is good with the world
NH
more QE
NH
good bank results
NH
what more could we ask for
JC
It can’t possibly fail.
12:02PM
JC
Moving on
JC
It’s that time again
JC
small cap corner
NH
yes
NH
sorry about this
NH
look away now
NH
if you don’t like small cap oil companies
NH
because we have had a bit of spill in the Falkland Islands today
Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH:LSE): Last: 400.25, down 59.75 (-12.99%), High: 418.50, Low: 343.00, Volume: 11.51m
NH
that’s right
JC
(Full JPM release here btw – http://bit.ly/b3Loqw )
NH
small cap oil stocks can go down as well as up
JC
Really? I’m astonished
NH
yep
NH
you see
NH
this is what happens when you auditors disgree with you
NH
on reserves
NH
quite embarassing
NH
(SOS copyright infringement. lawyer told me to take it down and I have)
NH
but the stock has bounced back
NH
because
NH
everyone
NH
and I mean everyone reckons
NH
it’s not as bad as it looks
NH
here for example is the take of Merrill Lynch
NH
which are lining up to do the big cash call the company needs
NH
Auditors lower SeaLion ests on limited technical data…
RKH announced that based on limited new technical data (amplitude/offset and
preliminary impedance correlation) reserve auditors RPS indicate potential 30%
cuts to SeaLion field contingent resource (2C) estimates to 170mmboe (from
242mmboe). RPS appear to interpret that as sands thin away from the well the
distribution of the reservoir could be different from the original estimates.
Importantly, we believe that even at this lower level of contingent resources
SeaLion is still economically viable as a stand alone development.
NH
…but management remain confident around further upside
In contrast, management interpret the data differently and remain confident that
SeaLion still offers significant upside – potentially considerably bigger than the
auditors’ estimates as new sand bodies were identified in the lower fan. Given
that the data set is work in progress and was meant to evaluate drilling locations
and not offer a definite answer on sand thickness, the final answer to the puzzle
will only be known after the company drills new holes next year.
NH
Financing additional seismic and drilling
As widely expected, RKH confirmed that it is looking for additional funding for an
extensive 3D seismic programme and to secure a rig to drill 3 firm wells (+ 5
optional) in early 2011. We estimate the total cost of the plan at US$100-150m.
Cut NAV by 115p to 585p; risk/reward still positive – Buy
Reflecting lower contingent resources for SeaLion’s base case (-136p) partially
offset by newly identified exploration upside (+21p), we cut our NAV/PO by 115p
(-15%) to 585p. Whilst the news are clearly disappointing near term, we continue
to believe that SeaLion could ultimately become larger and more valuable than
the market appears to price in. As such we still see the medium term risk/reward
skewed to the upside and maintain our Buy rating.

NH
I have loads more notes like that
NH
including one from the sector watcher
NH
Disappointing news from RKH, with a likely 30% reserves downgrade on its Sea Lion discovery in the North Falkland Basin. Although bad, it certainly doesn’t look terminal, indeed following further work on the enormous amount of data the group already has and is planning to collect, there may well be a reversal of today’s downgrade. Nevertheless this will hit sentiment negatively in the short term. The reason for the downgrade from 242m barrels recoverable to around 170m barrels? Quite simply that the independent Competent Person currently compiling a CPR for the group believes it does not currently have sufficient info on the multiple stacked fans that make up the Sea Lion overall structure to agree with RKH’s estimates. Some of these stacked fans have yet to be penetrated by a well, hence the uncertainty. Perhaps RKH was being overly optimistic on reserves, perhaps the Competent Person is being overly cautious – reserves determination on limited data is highly subjective. RKH also says that as a result its CPR has been delayed into H2-2011 until further 3D seismic has been acquired and further drilling has taken place. The group is currently in discussions with the Ocean Guardian rig owner about a continuation of the drilling programme next year. However the planned 3+5 well programme will be subject to a large cash deposit being made into an escrow account, hence the group has said it is evaluating its funding options which may include an equity issue. Today’s news highlights the risks inherent in the E&P sector, although we wouldn’t be too dis-heartened. We remain of the opinion that the Falklands remains a highly prospective region with material upside. We’d be buying into weakness today.
JC
Elsewhere in small cap oil land
JC
Evo has something on another big risk to the sector
JC
Could a resolution between Iraq/Kurdistan be on the horizon
JC
Not our usual reading (and nor do we profess to be experts in Iraqi politics) but we note an interesting article in the Tehran Times which suggested that Nouri al-Maliki was edging closer to gaining enough support to form an Iraqi government. Al-Maliki has apparently been successful in winning support from the Shia faction and is now looking to the Kurds to give him a majority in parliament. With this leverage then in al-Maliki’s future we would expect some hard bargaining from the Kurds with regards to the current payment dispute which overhangs company’s operating in Kurdistan. At present the Iraqis/Kurds are at odds with each other as to which party pays the profit oil element of the PSCs
NH
The Tehran Times. Is that behind a paywall?
NH
hmm
JC
Don’t think Rupert owns this one
NH
so we have better check what it has been doing
The next supermajor, potentially sitting on 60bn barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Loved by muppets across the globe.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 145.75, down 0.25 (-0.17%), High: 147.00, Low: 144.25, Volume: 1.32m
NH
oh dear
NH
down
JC
More Mahmoud Ahmad-Nejad
NH
right
NH
and to finish up in small cap corner
NH
someone was asking about Walker Greenbank
NH
which makes posh wallpaper
NH
I think it made the stuff that went on Lord Levinve’s walls
NH
and of course
NH
the chancellor comes from a wallpaper dynasty
NH
so it’s clearly a very important industry
Walker Greenbank PLC (WGB:LSE): Last: 40.00, up 1.75 (+4.58%), High: 42.50, Low: 38.50, Volume: 697.52k
NH
and here’s is what happening in wallpaper land
NH
via Oriel Securities
NH
We knew that trading had been good following the IMS at the end of July. PBT adj
came in at £2.1m, a little ahead of our forecast. The news today is that the
momentum in the first half (sales +15.6%) has continued into the first ten weeks of
this second half, despite second half comparatives getting harder by 10%. As such
we upgrade our second half sales growth assumption from 3% to 8.5% driving a 12%
upgrade. Importantly the bounce back in sales shows characteristics of both a
fundamental change in demand for luxury interior furnishings in the UK (as opposed
to a one off recovery) and a growing appetite coming from abroad. Going forward
demand in the medium term will be helped by the 150th anniversary of Morris and Co
as well as investment in new product launches. In the long term, there are real
opportunities to develop the brands abroad. On a forward PE of 6.4x, Walker
Greenbank is one of the cheapest stocks we follow in the general retail sector and
has very strong positive earnings momentum. BUY.
NH
Mid market brands continue to excel across all key markets: Harlequin, (43% of
brand sales) showed particularly strong growth in its contract and export markets
such that revenues in the second quarter are running ahead of pre-recession levels
two years ago. Meanwhile Sanderson (37% of brand sales) clearly benefited from
new collections celebrating the brand’s 150th anniversary which has helped to raise
its profile too. Next year Morris & Co will also launch its 150th anniversary and we
expect this to have a similar beneficial impact for the brand. It is also encouraging to
see that the higher priced Zoffany brand has now firmly staged a come back too.
Going forward the company believes that continued investment in marketing and new
product launches will propel brand sales further.
NH
Manufacturing businesses lead the industry: Wallpaper sales were up 29% at
Anstey helped largely by improving demand and customers rebuilding stock levels.
Following investment in the factory, Anstey now offers an ever wider range of market
leading printing techniques; the recent installation of a new scatter machine is an
example of this and we understand that the machine will be commissioned for a new
collection for Harlequin next year. Meanwhile, Standfast saw sales up 26% following
a recent revival in printed fabrics and digital printing. Going forward the company
expects some slowing in sales growth across its manufacturing businesses as
customers no longer need to rebuild stock levels.
Valuation: Walker Greenbank is a highly cash generative business helped further by
brought forward corporation tax losses of £20m. To this extent the company is
susceptible to private equity interest. While there are short term catalysts (Morris &
Co’s 150th anniversary) we believe that the company’s ambition to extend its
presence overseas, which is very much under represented relative peers, provides
an exciting growth element to the story. On forward PE of 6.4x the valuation speaks
for itself. BUY.
NH
there you go
12:10PM
NH
Right
JC
Anything else before we head off?
NH
it’s past midday
NH
just looking around
NH
Burberry has been hit by profit taking post results
Burberry Group PLC (BRBY:LSE): Last: 1,017, down 22 (-2.12%), High: 1,031, Low: 996.00, Volume: 1.90m
NH
Smith & Nephew down post some results from a US peer
Smith & Nephew PLC (SN.:LSE): Last: 557.00, down 12 (-2.11%), High: 565.00, Low: 554.50, Volume: 1.94m
NH
and Petrofac has had a good move on a Morgan Stanley note
Petrofac Ltd (PFC:LSE): Last: 1,474, up 60 (+4.24%), High: 1,492, Low: 1,433, Volume: 809.35k
NH
other than that
NH
nothing
NH
other than to say
NH
I am off to the new Savoy tonight
JC
Woops – just realised that ‘SocGen’ note I quoted on gold equities was actually from Nomura
JC
Sorry about that, in case you’re confused
JC
Blimey, the Savoy? Social call?
NH
for something called the October Club dinner
NH
never been before
NH
sounds slightly masonic
NH
apparently a very big city thing
NH
and there look to be some nice auction prizes
NH
Luncheon or dinner for eight people in the River Restaurant’s Private Room – your meal will be designed by The Savoy’s Executive Chef, Bernhard Mayer, and will be accompanied by a selection of wines carefully chosen by our Head Sommelier.
Kindly donated by The Savoy
NH
A private box at Ascot Racecourse for up to 14 people with spectacular views of the racing and in a premium position on the finishing line. Full catering and bar also to be included. Date in 2010/2011 to be mutually agreed, subject to availability, but excluding the week of the Royal meeting.
Kindly donated by Paul Roy
NH
One week in Val d’Isere for the week commencing Saturday 19th March 2011. Luxurious chalet, Les Carats enclave overlooking Val d’Isere/Le Face run. Recently built combining modern living with traditional “Savoyarde” design. Comfortably sleeps eight adults and four children within five bedrooms; all have flat TV and audio. Spacious sitting room, open fire, east/south facing sun terraces, interior lift serving all floors, home cinema and ski room. Breakfast included.
Kindly donated by Toscafund
JC
Ah, it’s for a good cause
NH
this sounds nice
NH
One week at Toucan Hill in Mustique for up to eight adults (seven days/six nights). Toucan Hill sparkles as one of the most spacious residences on Mustique, with trade wind breezes and stunning architecture. Enjoy spectacular 360° panoramic views of the Caribbean and the Atlantic from this incredible Moroccan villa on a seven-acre hilltop. Mosaic tiled fountains, domed octagon dining pavilion, two infinity pools, colonnades and jewelled lanterns all add to the fantasy theme of this stunning palace. Four luxurious air-conditioned guest suites with private baths (Toucan, Sultan, Pasha and Palm Suites) feature private terraces and balconies, spacious dressing rooms and tiled bathrooms. Toucan Hill provides guests with every comfort and pleasure. Meticulously appointed and fully staffed, Toucan Hill offers guests unsurpassed privacy and tranquillity encircled by magical beauty. As you walk up the impressive steps to this island paradise, the smiling faces of the staff welcome you. Pamper yourself and get away in style to this majestic island paradise. Use of two vehicles for easy island transportation. Available May–November 2011, excluding major holidays and based on availability. Flights, food, wine, tips and extras are not included.
Kindly donated by Tatiana & Gerard Copeland
NH
Host an exclusive lunch party for up to eight people at Lancaster London with the expertise of two of the finest chefs in the land: Giles Thompson (ex Head Executive Chef at the Ritz and owner of the Earl of March) and the Executive Head Chef at Lancaster London. Start with an early morning champagne breakfast, visit the famous Borough Market with Giles to select the ingredients for your lunch, and then return to Lancaster London to prepare, cook and eat your purchases!
Kindly donated by Giles Thompson
JC
‘visit the famous Borough Market with Giles to select the ingredients for your lunch’
JC
Hmm, ostrich steak or rip-off chorizo
NH
gawd
NH
there’s betting too
NH
The order of the night’s races is chosen at random from sealed tapes, so the results of the races are not known.

After the showing of a short introduction to each of the runners, a Ladbroke hostess visits each table to take bets.

As soon as the bets are in, the horses are off. At the end of the race, the MC announces the dividends as calculated by the Ladbroke’s backroom team during the race; and the hostesses return to the tables to pay out the winners.

The final race is a Tricast, which uses scratch-card type tickets, each of which contains three racehorse numbers, covering all the 336 possible combinations of the eight runners. The holder of the ticket which matches the exact order of the first three horses to finish in the third race wins a guaranteed £1,000.

NH
could be expensive
NH
and its black tie
NH
still it will be nice to see what the new Savoy is like
NH
I may be a little bit later tomorrow morning
NH
only because
NH
the Savoy is a long way from home
NH
OK
NH
we are donw
JC
Yes, but do look out for any inadvertent ingress into sex yachts, taxis, buses or trains, though.
NH
FTSE 100 up 65 points at 5,727
JC
You can’t be too careful.
NH
and we don’t have time to look at Punch Taverns
Punch Taverns PLC (PUB:LSE): Last: 75.85, down 4.2 (-5.25%), High: 80.95, Low: 75.05, Volume: 2.03m
NH
where it seems a debt for equity swap could be under consideration
NH
(Monkey – like i could afford that. suppose I could see if there’s a Travel Inn nearby)
NH
thanks everyone
NH
for logging in
JC
(£10,000 a night for one of the better rooms Neil)
NH
and thanks Jospeh
JC
(Not that I’ve stayed there of course)
NH
and thanks
NH
rabble
NH
cya tomorrow
JC
Bye all
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