Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:22 on 15 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
The next supermajor, potentially sitting on 60bn barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Loved by muppets across the globe.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 140.00, up 9.25 (+7.07%), High: 142.75, Low: 128.25, Volume: 5.31m
An internet food retailer that many believe is the second coming of Webvan. Loss making yet valued at close to £1bn on flotation.
A term of endearment used to describe BB share promoters on FT Alphaville.
FT Alpha’s fantasy investment portfolio. We employ a modifed version of cartoonist Scott Adams’s bet on the bad guys for stock selection. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575285000265955016.html
Former FT Alphaville editor and founder of the site. Now in charge of something called FT Tilt.
BE
So you got it to work then?
NH
I’ve had hours of fun with it
NH
some of them need tweaking
NH
and the WSJ linkl doesn’t really work
NH
anyway, we had better get on with the show
NH
welcome to Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily markets chat
BE
And I hope the zapper is in good working order
BE
I think we may need it today
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
BE
Fatdaz. He won’t mind.
BE
Right. Just before we start the flame-war again …..
BE
If anyone has any issues, please don’t clog up the usual service with your single stock rantage.
BE
Email us: bryce.elder@ft.com
BE
And we’ll be happy to talk about whatever you want. You can even, if you wish, take the responses back to whichever bulletin board you lurk in and use them as trophies.
BE
But, from hereon in, no trolling, fishing or conspiracy theories please. Ta.
NH
to the widely exciting wider market
NH
FTSE 100 off 17 points at 5,550
BE
FIRST DOWN DAY IN … oh, I did that yesterday.
BE
So we’re still lacking much in the way of conviction either way, it seems.
NH
this lack of conviction
NH
the head of Lex at the weekend
NH
will just get a link to the piece
NH
The lower bound has been set by governments. With official interest rates still phenomenally low in most of the developed world, and with strong regulatory incentives for banks and fund managers to buy bonds, governments are in effect forcing return-hungry investors to take a risk. Beyond equities and commodities, this also shows up in a new boom for junk bonds. When rates on safe fixed-income investments are so unattractive, there is really no other choice, and US Treasury yields – remarkably – have fallen significantly this year.
The upper bound is set by the economy. Consumers and companies alike are still deleveraging, or paying down debts rather than investing or spending, after the pre-crisis debt binge. US economic growth is so anaemic, with payrolls actually beginning to fall once more, that no one has any true confidence that sustainable economic growth has returned. Without this, risky assets cannot prosper.
NH
the point John makes is we are trapped
NH
and perhaps it will the FX market
NH
that jolts us out of complacency
NH
we finally had the Yen intervention overnight
BE
Was this expected so soon after Kan’s victory?
NH
that was a real curveball
NH
where will the USD monies
NH
from this intervention end up?
BE
Good question. The sense of futility in this market is rather draining.
NH
from what I have been hearing
NH
purchased around $11bn this morning
NH
I have a quick take on the intervention
NH
The BoJ intervened overnight to stop the JPY appreciating for the first time since 2004. It acted alone as we expected. This time around a break of 83/USD was seen as the line in the sand. The intervention had little impact on EUR/USD, with EUR/JPY rising in sympathy. The BoJ action is about stabilising the JPY, so don’t look for another immediate lurch higher in USD/JPY. The intervention has come at a good time because USD/JPY was looking like a one way bet after PM Kan retained the leadership of the DPJ. We never bought the ‘can’t because of China’ argument for not expecting intervention as it’s easily justified by macro/deflation trends in Japan (as outlined in the September FX Monthly). So there’s little incentive to take on the BoJ at this stage.
NH
The USD monies from the BoJ intervention are likely to eventually end up in the short end of UST curve. The intervention has only been in USD/JPY as expected. This makes sense given that the USD is the anchor for Asia, but it is worth keeping an open mind to the idea that the intervention could be broadened if the BOJ uses up credit lines with banks (e.g. SNB) and any such flows in EUR FX would be parked in Germany, or perhaps also France.
NH
The BoJ parking money in short end bonds is potentially a red herring. The key here is that Japanese investors have been aggressively buying foreign bonds in recent weeks. Intervention on USD/JPY combined with the half year end for Japanese accounting (end Sep) means the risk of profit taking. Correlations between 10y rates and JPY FX have been high (and justified given the Japanese private sector flows) and suggest that if the MOF/JPY do manage to bring USD/JPY higher then bear risk for the market increases. That is, the sum total of BoJ buying and private sector selling (profit-taking) in bonds is likely to be a net duration supply to the market. None of this changes our strategic bullish rates views premised on, amongst other things, the global economic slowdown, the potential for QE and the enormous problems in the periphery. Nevertheless, it is an important short-term development to be aware of
NH
another one bites the dust
NH
Time for something stock specific
NH
one of the ROTR mentioned this company earlier
@UK Plc (ATUK:LSE): Last: 4.50, up 3.45 (+328.57%), High: 8.25, Low: 1.05, Volume: 766.50k
NH
the stock has screamed higher
NH
all down to a deal with Google
NH
Richard Benyon MP, Minister for Natural Environment and Fisheries, will launch the new @UK PLC market place, currently available at http://www.beta.uk-plc.net, on 7 October 2010. The Directors believe that @UK PLC is one of the largest e-Procurement marketplaces in the world with over 1 million users to date, and the new market place will also show users the environmental impact of any purchase along with the ability to offset the environmental impact.
Google are supporting the launch with a promotion to @UK PLC’s customers (with a total in-kind value of £10m), to encourage those customers to increase their Google-based advertising and traffic through the platform.
NH
but look at this statement from yesterday
NH
it seems a director switched his holding of @UK shares
NH
The Company announces that it was informed on 13 September 2010 that Ronald Duncan , Director of the Company, purchased via his SIPP 3,214,285 Ordinary Shares on 10 September 2010 at a price of 1p per Ordinary Share, and sold 3,214,285 Ordinary Shares on 10 September 2010 at a price of 1 p per Ordinary Share from his personal account . Prior to this purchase and sale, Ronald and Lyn Duncan and associated family’s holding in the Company amounted to 20,204,118 Ordinary Shares, representing 32.3 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company. Following the purchase and sale, there is no change in the joint position.
NH
it will attrack a lower tax rate
BE
That was a stroke of luck for Ronald Duncan.
NH
he won’t look to sell any
BE
Meanwhile, I’m still a little confused as to what this sentence actually means.
BE
Google are supporting the launch with a promotion to @UK PLC’s customers (with a total in-kind value of £10m), to encourage those customers to increase their Google-based advertising and traffic through the platform.
BE
Praxis: you read more of this Bullshxx 2.0 than us. Any ideas?
BE
So anyway, I’ve just had a look at the website of this thing.
BE
Seems an odd beast. Sets up nameplate companies, hosts off-the-shelf websites.
BE
And has this “eProcurement” division.
BE
Yes. A bit like alphatwats. Though we lack “eProcurement”.
BE
Basically, it’s eBay for the NHS.
NH
this sounds like Izodia
BE
Yes. Exactly. Or Infobox, or whatever it was called before that.
NH
shall we move on to weighty matters
BE
I guess we shall. Enough of the curious world of small-cap.
NH
Before we look at Next
NH
and have a look at a few gold retailers
NH
most acting well in the wake of the gold price spike
Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LSE): Last: 1,246, up 48 (+4.01%), High: 1,246, Low: 1,192, Volume: 687.85k
Randgold Resources Ltd (RRS:LSE): Last: 6,290, no change, High: 6,360, Low: 6,270, Volume: 93.63k
Centamin Egypt Ltd (CEY:LSE): Last: 173.00, up 7 (+4.22%), High: 177.90, Low: 160.00, Volume: 4.77m
NH
Now Centamin interests me
NH
just gone into the FTSE 250
NH
with a market cap of £1.6bn
BE
Hang on. Didn’t it cut production guidance last week?
NH
have problem getting the ore
NH
through its filters and such like
NH
a few days after that disaster we get this
NH
Centamin, the gold mining group with operations in Egypt, is pleased to announce an increase in the Sukari proven and probable reserves to 9.1 million ounces Au, an increase of 28%. This follows the re-optimisation of the measured and indicated component of the resource base at a $900/oz gold price. A summary is as follows:
NH
does that not strike you as a bit quick?
NH
so soon after a bad statement?
NH
Commenting on the revision, Josef El-Raghy, Chairman of Centamin, said:
“Since February 2010, Centamin has added a further two million ounces of gold reserves to the Sukari project. The additional grade control and the ongoing pit optimisation work continues to demonstrate the robust nature of the Sukari orebody. We believe that the orebody remains open to the north and at depth, and we will continue to drive additional growth to Sukari’s reserves and resources as the drilling campaign continues.”
NH
that’s all I will say there
NH
let’s hope there’s no CEY Liberation Front
BE
The timing does seem odd, I’ll grant you.
BE
As, coincidentally, does the gold price.
NH
record high remains in sight though
BE
And is there any comment on this Anglogold cash call?
BE
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) — AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa’s largest gold producer, expects to raise about $1.37 billion through the sale of shares and convertible bonds to fund an end to its gold hedges.
NH
but an interesting move
NH
throwing in the towel on the hedge book
NH
and raising cash to pay it off
NH
although given Anglo’s past calls on the gold market
NH
this could be something of a contra indicator
NH
here’s a quick take from Merrill
NH
which say the Anglo gold book was negative $2.41bn on a MTM basis
NH
Equity offering and convertible bonds offering
AngloGold Ashanti announced the launch of a global offering of 15,773,914 new
ordinary shares (and up to an additional 2,366,086 new ordinary shares pursuant
to an over-allotment). According to Bloomberg the equity issue will be priced at
ZAR308.37/sh for total proceeds of up to ZAR5.6bn or $790 million.
NH
A concurrent
global offering of convertible bonds (same number of shares) takes combined
proceeds to ZAR11.2bn or $1.6bn.
Proceeds planned to eliminate hedge book
AngloGold Ashanti intends to use the net proceeds from the Equity Offering and
the Mandatory Convertible Bonds Offering, together with funds drawn from its
existing credit facilities and cash on hand, to effectively eliminate its gold hedging
position.
NH
Hedge book 3.22Moz; negative MTM $2.41bn
As at 30 June 2010, AngloGold Ashanti had total outstanding commitments
against future production of 3.22Moz or 100t, dated to 2015. The total net delta
was 3.06Moz (95t). The marked-to-market value of all hedge transactions
making up the hedge positions was a negative $2.41bn (negative ZAR18.40bn)
as at 30 June 2010.
Minimal NPV impact, maintain neutral recommendation
Based on estimated proceeds outlined above and the hedge buy back we
estimate a positive impact on 2011/2012 earnings of around 20%, and a modest
downgrade to our CY2011NPV. Our gold price forecast (real) currently stands at
2011 $1,320/oz, 2012 $1,330/oz, and 2013 $1,200/oz. We have a neutral rating
on the stock with price target ZAR370/sh.
NH
good question on Betfair
NH
and I haven’t seen any financials
NH
so what it’s worth I don’t know
NH
but if loss-making internet grocers are worth nearly £1bn
NH
a profitable genuinely disrputive business
NH
could be worth a whole lot more
BE
But are they actually floating this time? The “Betfair’s putting the finishing touches to ths float plans” story has been written once a quarter for the last three years at least.
NH
this is a bit of a filler story
NH
Betfair considers float
NH
might or might not list
NH
depends on market conditions
NH
a story that can’t be denied
BE
Indeed. A story that says very little. The safest kind.
BE
And, speaking of disruptive internet businesses …..
Next Plc (NXT:LSE): Last: 2,140, up 100 (+4.90%), High: 2,160, Low: 2,042, Volume: 1.42m
NH
(RHM – you read the Mail?)
NH
I never know what to make of their statement
NH
Lord Wolfson always bearish
NH
and today is no exception
NH
talking of rising costs
NH
I suppose EPS beat expectations – due to buyback
NH
and guidance is unchanged
NH
and there are always people short of Next
BE
Yes. But Lord Wolfson’s the yin to Martin Sorrel’s yang.
BE
The cautious message shouldn’t really surprise anyone.
BE
And the shares are, by most people’s measure, cheap.
NH
(yes pls Fitz, Americano. splash of milk)
NH
Directory business continues to grow well though
BE
Just got Shore Capital through doing a line by line analysis of Lord Wolfson’s comments for the sector, if you’re interested.
NH
and then I have some stuff on the numbers
BE
‘For 2011 we are experiencing significant product cost price pressure from around the world.
The price of cotton has increased by 45% since this time last year, which is pushing up fabric
prices. In addition we are beginning to experience wage cost inflation in some overseas
territories. Manufacturing capacity is also an issue in the territories where factories were
closed at the height of the credit crunch. Input costs combined with the impending rise in VAT
will make price rises inevitable in the Spring of next year.
BE
We will be able to mitigate some pricing pressure through alternative sourcing, robust
negotiation and some product engineering. We believe that selling prices of like for like
product will rise in the region of 5% to 8%. Price rises are likely to moderate demand to some
extent, but we think the effect is unlikely to be dramatic.
BE
Hang on – I’ll cut to the analysis.
BE
So, Lord Wolfson is expecting:
1. Material apparel cost inflation reflecting input prices, wage inflation and,
surprisingly perhaps, given the reduced global demand, capacity constraints. Onto
this we can add higher freight costs and, as Next also mentions, the impact of the
imposition of the increase UK VAT rate (note: this does not apply to most foodstuffs).
BE
2. A capability to manage elements of the cost inflation as a result of the amalgam
of sourcing management, ‘negotiation’ and ‘product engineering’, common features of
most retail sub-sectors, but even with such steps Next is signalling like-for-like (LFL)
price inflation of 5-8%; inflation that is expected by the company to moderate demand
but not in a dramatic manner. That latter view can clearly be subject to debate and we
wonder if the value based players such as Asda (Wal-Mart, WMT, No
Recommendation), Primark (Associated British Foods, ABF^, Buy at 1065p),
Sainsbury (SBRY^, Hold at 378p) and Tesco UK (TSCO#, Buy at 427p) amongst others share Next’s views on the magnitude of price recovery and volume
implications?
BE
3. No double-dip recession, rather slow or sluggish growth. We share this view at this
stage albeit it is a finely balanced situation. Next is right, to our minds, to point out
that employment is likely to remain at high levels, even with the impact of public
sector cuts, and to us going through the process of cuts may progressively lead to an
improvement in confidence as increasing numbers of households realise that they are
‘ok’; a sense of relief. We also concur with Next’s comments on improving household
balance sheets, albeit we note a possible flattening of the saving’s ratio; we suggest
that one should never underestimate the propensity of the British consumer to spend.
The company does, however, highlight the restrictions on credit availability, a factor
that will impact the strength of any increase in consumer expenditure. On balance,
therefore, sluggish consumer behaviour is a sensible prognosis to hold.
BE
Food retailer’s an ice berg for the general trade
The comments from Lord Wolfson are thought provoking and helpful for investors to our
minds, noting his elevated position now as a new government peer. We broadly agree with
his comments but his analysis, as is the case with our own, is subject to potential review if the
public sector cuts are too much too soon for the economy; that remains a risk. We would add
another constraint to the general retail trade, albeit Next is better positioned than most to
cope with it, and that is the inexorable expansion in store and on-line of the Big Three food
retailers’ into the ‘General’s’ space. Such competition is needed like a ‘hole in the head’ for
the general trade, but the competitive pressure is only likely to intensify.
BE
That’s all from Clive Black at Shore.
BE
So, as for Next itself, what are we putting this down to? Rally? Bit of short covering?
NH
I think the statement was a little less gloomy than the one in August
NH
and it seems to have got the rest of the sector going
NH
although what the readacross to Kingfisher is
Kingfisher PLC (KGF:LSE): Last: 217.10, up 5.4 (+2.55%), High: 217.20, Low: 211.20, Volume: 2.53m
Marks and Spencer Group PLC (MKS:LSE): Last: 373.90, up 6.9 (+1.88%), High: 375.80, Low: 365.40, Volume: 3.53m
Home Retail Group plc (HOME:LSE): Last: 213.70, up 1.3 (+0.61%), High: 215.00, Low: 211.70, Volume: 1.06m
NH
here’s some comment from Merrill
NH
HY results a mixed bag, online story intact
Next has reported H1 PBT of £213mn vs our £216mn estimate with basic EPS of
84.5p vs our 83.6p forecast and DPS +32% to 25p compared to our estimate of
21p. Net debt was £494mn broadly in line with our £500mn estimate. In its trading
statement on August 4, Next guided to EBIT +c.15% with the actual result
£226mn (+13%). For the full year Next expects EPS growth of 13% to 18% (BofA
ML +17%) and we expect small consensus earnings upgrades.
NH
Very strong performance by Directory
Directory EBIT was +22% to £101mn vs our £95mn forecast, driven by strong
growth in online sales, which account for 70% of the total. Active customers
increased by +11% with most new customers recruited online and a 61% increase
in cash only customers who don’t have a Next credit facility. We think that Next
should achieve sales growth in H2 at the top end of its 4-8% guidance range as it
now appears to be driving customer recruitment harder and has also increased its
Autumn/Winter page count by 4% and broadened its ranges online.
NH
Retail EBIT lower than forecast
Retail EBIT was £123mn vs our £126mn estimate. Operating margin was +80bp
compared to our +100bp estimate with bought in gross margin contributing +70bp,
markdown -30bp, central overheads -50bp and branch occupancy costs -10bp.
Next achieved LFL sales (excluding direct) of -1.5% in H1 and expects -1.5% to -
4.5% in H2 (BofA -3.9% excl. Direct). Next’s standalone homewares stores are
performing well which are dovetailing very well with its online expansion.
NH
Valuation undemanding given strong online growth
While we can understand Next’s c.8.5x cal. 11 P/E for its Retail business, given
its relative maturity in the UK, we think the other c.35% of the business, Next
Directory, deserves a higher multiple on account of its high margins and double
digit profit growth. Next should offer amongst the highest earnings visibility in the
sector, has a strong online growth story and remains very cash generative.
NH
and while on the retailers
Asos PLC (ASC:LSE): Last: 1,167, down 33 (-2.75%), High: 1,210, Low: 1,165, Volume: 139.70k
NH
although the stock is down
NH
the takeover rumour won’t die
NH
Idea now seems to be Amazon
NH
which makes much more sense than Marks
BE
Right. So Merv’s gone into the bearpit.
BE
To we have any flashes yet?
NH
and he is attempting to blind them with science
NH
using terms like automatical stabilisers
NH
not sure what Bob Crow will make of that
NH
RTRS-BOE’S KING-MONETARY POLICY,AUTOMATIC STABILISERS CAN REACT IF ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
11:30 15Sep10 RTRS-BOE’S KING-BUSINESS AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN UK HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY
11:30 15Sep10 RTRS-BOE’S KING-SEEING ENCOURAGING SIGNS IN UK MANUFACTURING AND EXPORTS
11:30 15Sep10 RTRS-BOE’S KING-CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR THE US AND EURO ZONE ECONOMIES
11:30 15Sep10 RTRS-BOE’S KING-BIG PICTURE IN LABOUR MARKET IS JOBLESS HIGHER THAN BEFORE CRISIS BUT LOWER THAN FEARED
11:30 15Sep10 RTRS-BOE’S KING-MONETARY POLICY IS THE BEST TOOL FOR MANAGING ECONOMY IN THE SHORT RUN
BE
Meanwhile, rumour of further BOJ intervention
BE
“BOJ just came in again,” according to a forex bod.
NH
talking of banker hatred
NH
Banks and bankers are now potential targets for the Real IRA, leaders of the dissident republican terror group have warned in an exclusive interview with the Guardian. Despite having only 100 activists they also said that targets in England remained a high priority.
In an attempt to tap into the intense hostility towards the banks on both sides of the Irish border they branded bankers as “criminals” and said: “We have a track record of attacking high-profile economic targets and financial institutions such as the City of London. The role of bankers and the institutions they serve in financing Britain’s colonial and capitalist system has not gone unnoticed.
“Let’s not forget that the bankers are the next-door neighbours of the politicians. Most people can see the picture: the bankers grease the politicians’ palms, the politicians bail out the bankers with public funds, the bankers pay themselves fat bonuses and loan the money back to the public with interest. It’s essentially a crime spree that benefits a social elite at the expense of many millions of victims.”
NH
RTRS-DOLLAR/YEN RISES FROM 85.00 YEN, TRADERS CITE TALK OF JAPAN INTERVENTION
BE
So, IRA terrorism and BOJ intervention. Wasn’t it nice when we were able to fill an hour talking about M&A?
NH
Let’s pause for a moment
NH
we have received a rather nice tweet
NH
who’se site we have been banned from accessing at the FT
BE
Have we? That’s a bit off.
NH
BrokermanDaniel
Rply 2 9 direct messages. FTAlphavll’ Superb source 4 research Well respected website Financial Times A must subscription for city brokers.
NH
I am waiting for the BUT
BE
I’m sure an endorsement from BMD carries an implicit “but ….”
NH
what about a bit of mining
BE
Base rather than gold? Certainly. What’s caught your eye?
NH
First Quantum have started legal proceedings against ENRC
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC:LSE): Last: 870.00, down 14.5 (-1.64%), High: 888.50, Low: 869.50, Volume: 618.74k
NH
in the British Virgin Islands
NH
not quite sure how that is going to work
NH
few brokers think they have any chance of success
NH
and if the govt in Congo are backing this deal
NH
it’s difficult to see what they can do
NH
but I guess thye have to try
NH
First Quantum have announced the commencement of legal proceedings against
ENRC in relation to the Kolwezi tailings project in the DRC. First Quantum believes
that the expropriation of Kolwezi by the government is illegal and has been
orchestrated by government and third parties at First Quantum’s expense.
Whilst we sympathise with First Quantum over this issue, we are of the view that
these legal proceedings have very little chance of success.
NH
DRC mining license
review embarked on in 2007, have shown that the original transfer of Kolwezi (prior to
First Quantum obtaining the asset) license was not undertaken properly and was
essentially illegal. ENRC have subsequently purchased the asset that was already
expropriated from First Quantum by the DRC government. Whilst ENRC’s actions
may be questionable on moral grounds, we are of the view that their due diligence
process was thorough enough to give them to be covered on legal basis.
NH
The loss of DRC assets has already been factored in First Quantum’s share price and
we expect these legal proceedings to little impact on the stock. More news of this
legal action is likely to further undermine attractiveness of DRC as a mining
investment destination.
NH
and here’s what Citi make of it
NH
First Quantum Minerals has announced the beginning of legal action against
ENRC’s subsidiaries this morning. A subsidiary of FQM – Congo Minerals
Developments Ltd has filed a claim in the British Virgin Islands against Highwinds
Group – the Dan Gertler vehicle in which ENRC recently acquired a controlling
stake.
NH
FQM states that although ENRC is relying on a legalistic explanation of its
acquisition, this only takes into account the DRC court ruling and does not
address the ongoing international arbitration and governance issues. Our view is
that while this step was expected from FQM, it does reinforce the company’s
seriousness about being fairly compensated for Kolwezi and Frontier.
NH
We would expect ENRC to respond to this legal action with their prior stance –
that the Kolwezi deal has been done under the auspices of DRC law. We think
events like the outcome of the Kolwezi arbitration (expected in 1H11) and any
overtures by the IMF to tighten the purse strings on DRC debt relief should be
closely watched as matters of relevance to both companies.
NH
Right more on the Yen intervention
NH
now rumours the Chinese are selling
NH
Hearing UNCONFIRMED talk that China has been a seller of yen over the last 10
min from 85.34 to 85.10.
- Back on 9/9 Japan’s Vice Fin Min Minezaki said the government was very
interested in China buying JGB debt; Looking to have close communication with
China on JGB buys. Does not know the true intention behind China buying JGBs
NH
According to Nikkei China bought a net of ¥583B in Japanese financial assets
in July. (China bought a net ¥508B ($5.9B) in short-term Japanese bills in
June v net buys of a record ¥694.8B in May)
BE
Ok. Nearly midday and we haven’t even set off the Raw autotext.
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
Anything worth repeating this morning, Neil?
NH
RAW a rare commodity these days
NH
I blame Lady GaGa and the meat suit
NH
today’s very meagre offering
NH
is talk of positive roadshow from
Vatukoula Gold Mines Plc (VGM:LSE): Last: 2.67, up 0.2 (+8.10%), High: 2.68, Low: 2.50, Volume: 22.20m
NH
and some decent buying of Tower Resources
NH
and that’s it I afriad
BE
No. Though is there any advance on the Tate & Lyle story post Harbinger closing its position yesterday?
NH
I think they have sold
NH
a couple of brokers pushing the stock today
NH
because of the latest HFCS pricing round
BE
“HFCS” = high fructose corn syrup.
BE
The sweetener for Coke and Pepsi.
BE
Cheaper than real sugar, with only ADHD side-effects to worry about.
BE
So who’s doing the pushing?
NH
Apparently RBS and Redburn have notes out on Tate.
Both talking it up post meeting competitor ADM who are talking about a positive HFCS pricing round.
Have picked up that ADM have been saying that 1.4m tonnes of HFCS going into Mexico vs Tates last comment of 1m tonnes
..a 40% uplift is very material as it helps tighten capacity utilisation as we go into the business end of the year with the annual sweetener negotiations
Tate H1 IMS confirmed for the 30th…
Stock bounced 15% since we revisited it a few weeks ago
BE
Anything to wrap up with? How about our favourite Spanish bank?
NH
the incredible acquisition machine
NH
looks like it might be about to dispose of something
NH
front page of Expansion today
NH
is a story saying that post a recent £4.5bn capital injection
NH
Santander’s UK business is worth £20bn
NH
and it could be floated before the end of the year
NH
here’s the take of a sector watcher
NH
The leading story in Spanish newspaper Expansion is that SAN is valuing its UK business at GBP20bn post a recent 4.5bn capital injection from the parent that was announced simultaneously with the RBS branches deal in August. This capital injection, as clarified by a short ratings update by S&P yesterday, is to support future business growth and assist in the group reorganisation of UK assets under SAN UK (e.g. shifting certain asset management and credit card activities).
NH
On our estimates, pre any IPO discount, this valuation equates to p/TCE FY10F of 1.8x and a P/E of 11x – Lloyds currently trades at 1.3x p/TCE but is a recovery story and long-term historical p/TCE valuations for UK banks are between 2x to 2.5x p/TCE. SAN group impact: Assuming a 20% IPO with a 10% discount, this could realise c.EUR4.3bn for the group, and improve core tier 1 capital by c. 40bps (from capital gains and minority add back benefits) – this would help to restore capital post Poland deal, taking FY11F core capital back to c.9%. EUR4.3bn of IPO proceeds would equate to c.5% of group market cap.
NH
we could be getting another UK listed bank after all
BE
And not Metrobank. That’s something, at least.
BE
Though whether Santander’s better than Metro is a question for another day.
BE
Speaking of banks, interesting note out of Merrill on HBSC this morning.
NH
oh yes. a doubled dividend coming.
NH
it is a convincing argument?
BE
It rather works on the assumption that HSBC won’t excrete its money up the wall on another Household-type acquisition.
NH
(taxloss – which list?)
BE
Exactly. Like Northern Trust.
BE
So here’s the gist of the argument.
BE
More than just a rate play – headwinds to growth abating
Investor perception of HSBC is dominated by the outlook for interest rates. While
we agree that a rising rate environment should materially improve its top line and
bottom line growth, we are positive on HSBC’s underlying growth given recovering
risk appetite, comparable PBT growth to StanChart in Asia, and improving growth
prospects in the core US and UK franchises. Combined with expectations for a
sharp fall in bad debt, PBT should rebound back to peak levels by 2011 & beyond.
BE
Raising 2011-12E EPS by 7% – 8% – Top end of consensus
We have our upgraded our 2011-12E EPS forecasts by 7-8% on the back of (i)
faster Asian growth reflecting better other income performance and a renewed
appetite for lending, and (ii) improving US performance, at the top line and better
credit costs. After allowing for the upgrades, we are more 20% above consensus
EPS estimates for 2011-12E. In light of these changes, we have tweaked up our
SOTP derived price objective by +1% to HK$109/share.
BE
Double the dividend – US$15bn of surplus capital by 2012
HSBC has maintained its crisis dividend policy since its rights issue in Mar-09. We
think the rebound in profitability and confirmation of Basel capital requirements will
allow the bank to step up its dividend materially. Avg pre-crisis payout was 58%;
we assume a return to 50% in 2011. In a low interest rate world, we think the
stock’s 5-6% yield is compelling. After factoring in a higher DPS, we still arrive at
$15bn of surplus capital by 2012, using 8% as a target common equity tier 1 ratio.
BE
Reiterate Buy. Attractive risk/reward profile & div yield
We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating premised on (i) expectations for sustained period of
upward EPS revisions; (ii) balance sheet, capital & liquidity strength, and (iii) its
attractive risk/reward profile supported by solid cash dividend yield (5-6%).
BE
Remarkable, really, that banks have gone from hugely undercapitalised to hugely overcapitalised within 18 months.
NH
just taken a call in Drax
Drax Group Plc (DRX:LSE): Last: 399.50, down 14.4 (-3.48%), High: 409.00, Low: 398.50, Volume: 1.22m
NH
I reckon it is down to some negative comment from JP Morgan
NH
Risks increasingly to the downside; downgrading to
Underweight ▲
Over the last 3 months Drax’s share price has risen 9.9% outperforming
the European utilities index by 6.1% despite winter 2011/12 UK power
prices having fallen by 9.9% over that time.
In our view, the risk to UK gas and hence power prices heading into the
winter is skewed to the downside for the following reasons:
o UK gas inventories have rebounded from their March lows
and are now close to their 3 year average level;
o UK LNG imports in August rose 55% from July as
liquefaction capacity returned to service in Qatar; and
o 12 month forward UK gas prices are now trading at a 60%
premium to US prices, which is the highest level since mid
2008 (see figure 2).
BE

is not on the Cazenove mailing list then.
NH
(praxis go here http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/15/343876/bond-and-bill-auctions-bashed-all-round/)
NH
and we need to round things up
NH
first a bit of small cap corner
Regal Petroleum Plc (RPT:LSE): Last: 30.00, down 1 (-3.23%), High: 31.00, Low: 28.50, Volume: 1.87m
BE
Small down. What’s the news?
NH
15 September 2010
Termination of Broking Agreement with Mirabaud Securities
The Board of Directors of Regal announces that it has terminated its agreement with Mirabaud Securities, who with immediate effect, will no longer act as broker to the Company.
NH
but you don’t usually see it
BE
They did have three brokers though.
BE
Which may be considered excessive.
NH
(Taxloss read Harry Investor’s story. heart warming)
BE
They’ve still got RBS Hoare and Merrill working the contract.
NH
I have some comment on Bowleven
NH
from the sector watcher
BowLeven PLC (BLVN:LSE): Last: 164.75, up 3.25 (+2.01%), High: 165.00, Low: 162.00, Volume: 429.39k
NH
BLVN has spudded the Sapele-1 prospect on licence MLHP-5 offshore Cameroon, around 50 kilometres southeast of the IE/IF gas/condensate discoveries. BLVN currently has a 75% working interest in the licence although it is likely that Vitol will exercise an option to increase its stake from 25% to 50% by the end of this month. This would provide BLVN with a further $100m of carry as well as a $25m cash payment. The prospect itself is targeting multiple hydrocarbon zones, primarily gas at the Tertiary level and gas/oil from the deeper Cretaceous, with chances of success varying from 15-30%. With P50 estimates of reserves of 111m boe we believe this could be worth in the region of 70-80p/share (assuming a Vitol farm-in). The Sapele well presents another opportunity for BLVN to continue the remarkable turnaround in its share price, having already recovered from 25p in late 2008 to the current level of 162p. With IE/IF looking increasingly likely to be commercial, there is still material upside scope for the share price and we remain buyers.
NH
and a load of stuff on diamonds
NH
and why that’s a hot market at the moment
BE
@Sir Incompetent: well remembered – forgot about that story.
NH
However, there is a commodity out there that is also seeing a very strong market environment with a supply to demand imbalance coming soon and company share prices that have not moved. I am of course referring to Diamonds and coloured gemstones
NH
Yesterday we had the news that Rio Tinto Plc was to go ahead with its $803mn investment in the Argyle Diamond mine in Western Australia. Today we have the news that Gem Diamonds have agreed a 25% price increase for its high grade “yellow” diamonds from Ellendale with Tiffany’s. Tiffany have an off take agreement at just over $2,500/carat last year and the arrangement was due an update but this is a positive figure nonetheless.
NH
On Monday the big beast in the space reports FY10 financials. Petra Diamonds have had a transformational year and will report record profits, but the share price is no different to where we raised money in December 2009.
Of course, everyone will point out the SAAD holding that clearly overhangs the stock. How and when this comes out, no one knows, but clearly Canaccord Genuity will be the first to let you know.
NH
have a look for Gem Diamonds
NH
On the results front we expect Petra to report total income of US$163.3 million, EBITDA of US$60.3 million and attributable net income of US$36.5 million. The accounting for this period could cause confusion as the US$35.3 million 507 carat diamond sold earlier in the year was partly the source for an “exceptional” H1 write up, which we expect will be partly reversed in the full year numbers.
NH
Behind all this is an insatiable demand for supply. Increased bank lending and low interest rates allow the cutters and polishers to buy supply and increase risk on their longer term assumptions. Rough Diamond prices have recovered beyond their 2008 peak and remain well supported, the demand out of India and China is beating all expectations a view backed up when I visited Gemfields last week.
The SAAD stake is an overhang, but don’t expect this to get placed at a discount. Its removal is a clear and present catalyst for a major re-rating. I would be buying ahead of this and not waiting for it.
BE
Yes – we are. Though for the record, let’s just grab that Regal story again.
BE
Shareholders disillusioned with Regal Petroleum’s [RPT LN] share price performance backed a proposal last month to replace the company’s chief executive David Greer with Atul Gupta, the former head of Burren Energy, this news service can reveal.
Confirmation of the plan is contained in a 6 August letter sent to the company’s non-executive chairman Keith Henry from Mirabaud Securities, Regal’s broker.
BE
“This news service” being Mergermarket.
BE
So they were organising a rebellion and have been sacked.
NH
So the former broker saying the guy at Burren should come in
NH
let’s hope it isn’t the FD of Burren
NH
who was photographed riding a kids scooter to work
NH
during the recent tube strike
BE
Ah yes – saw that. Brilliant photo.
NH
A man who became the face of defiant Londoners who struggled to work during last week’s Tube strike today said he would have smiled if he had realised he was going to be front page news.
Andrew Rose, finance director of Gulfsands Petroleum, was pictured on page one of the Evening Standard riding a scooter to get to his office.
Transport for London had urged commuters to find alternative forms of transport to avoid the disruption caused by the walkout.
NH
Mr Rose first heard that his picture was in the paper after his daughter spotted it and called him.
He said: “I think anybody in that position would be surprised to see themselves in the paper. If I’d known, I would’ve smiled. My daughter saw it first and then when my colleagues saw it they convulsed with laughter. I’m thankfully back on the Tube now.” Mr Rose, whose business has a market value of £350 million, said he had learned valuable lessons on his journey last Tuesday to Gulfsands Headquarters off Regent Street.
“Normally I take the Tube and walk to my office like any sane human being,” he said.
“On a scooter you realise how many hills there are in London that you never knew about, how weak your legs are and that traffic holds no prisoners.”
NH
So he could be the next Regal CEO?
BE
I think it shows a certain level of thrift that should be laudible in a finance director.
BE
The fact that he looks like a prannet is beside the point.
NH
nicking his kids scooter
BE
Maybe he didn’t have sufficient liquidity for a Boris bike. Perhaps he had no clips for that sharp suit. We can merely speculate.
BE
However, I have rather a lot of GKP shareholder emails to answer, so let’s wrap this up.
NH
how many have you got?
BE
A dozen. Maybe more. Haven’t really been keeping count.
BE
Varying ratios of sense to playground insults.
NH
that will keep you busy
NH
I have a lunch at the Wharf
NH
FTSE 100 down 15 points at 5,552
NH
is up almost 600 per cent now
@UK Plc (ATUK:LSE): Last: 6.55, up 5.5 (+523.81%), High: 8.25, Low: 1.05, Volume: 2.68m
NH
can’t say I understand why
BE
Wow. 600% up after getting one of those “Google adwords” spam fliers through the door. Very impressive.
NH
and thanks for logging on
NH
(Interesting thought AB)
NH
and a quick sum up of the King speech
NH
Mervyn King’s speech to the TUC is obviously pitched very much to his audience. But it is evident that he remains fully supportive of the government’s current plans to bring down the budget deficit. Indeed, he emphasized the costs to the economy of failing to establish a clear and credible plan to restore the public finances to a sustainable state. In particular, Mr. King has highlighted that if market credibility is lost, resultant higher interest rates will raise the costs of both investment and mortgages.
Mr. King also indicated that if the recovery does falter markedly, the Bank of England can take further action to stimulate the economy, helped by credible monetary policy. He made no reference to inflation, preferring to focus on what the Bank of England can do to help the economy going forward.
NH
While allowing for the fact that the tone of Mr. King’s speech was clearly influenced by the audience he was addressing, the impression remains that he is no hurry at all to raise interest rates despite persistently sticky inflation and is prepared to compete interest rates very low over the long-term to counter the extended fiscal squeeze
As such, Mr. King’s speech reinforces our view that Bank of England is most likely to keep interest rates down at 0.50% during the rest of 2010 and much of 2011. We forecast the first interest rate hike to 0.75% to come in the fourth quarter of 2011 and see interest rates still only at 1.00% at the end of next year. Indeed, we would not rule out interest rates staying down at 0.50% until 2012.
Indeed, if the Bank of England does act at all in the near term, we believe it will most likely be to revive Quantitative Easing in the face of faltering economic activity and persistently tight credit conditions.