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Markets Live transcript 10 Sep 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:18 on 10 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
Hola
NH
It’s Friday
NH
and 11.03am
NH
which means it’s time to fire up the ML machine
NH
Bryce is here
BE
Hello. Sorry. Very slow machine this morning.
NH
Okay
NH
I am considering making this something of a People’s Friday session
NH
where we open ML up to questions from the floor
NH
or in the case ROTR
BE
Within reason.
BE
I guess that’s in a reaction to the very, very, very quiet start.
NH
indeed
BE
Still feels like August out there.
NH
almost nothing doing
NH
although this just popped up from the FSA
NH
A 64-year-old man was arrested yesterday by the City of London Police Economic Crime Directorate on suspicion of money laundering and providing false information in connection with suspected insider dealing. The arrest was related to an ongoing investigation by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Following questioning under caution by FSA staff, he was released on police bail pending further enquiries.

Following the arrest a premises in Potters Bar was also searched as part of the investigation.

No further details can be confirmed at this time and the investigation continues.

BE
Hang on.
BE
providing false information in connection with suspected insider dealing.
BE
That’s a bit of an oxymoron surely.
BE
If it’s false, how’s it insider?
NH
good question
NH
actually which case does this relate to?
BE
Because the actual law is involved, rather than the FSA’s kangaroo court, I suspect we can’t get the usual level of detail.
BE
By the way, I was chatting with someone about how the FSA works these things.
BE
Apparently you get a letter saying “you have been fined £xxx,xxx”
BE
“You cannot tell anyone other than your solicitor.”
BE
“And you must pay before x date to get a 20% discount.”
NH
i see
NH
right the above relates to this
NH
27 May 2009

Five men and one woman, aged between 27 and 34, were today arrested in connection with an ongoing investigation by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) into suspected organised insider dealing. Search warrants were also executed at eight addresses in London and Essex as part of the investigation.

Today’s operation was jointly carried out by the FSA and the City of London Police Economic Crime Directorate (ECD). The operation and investigation are part of the FSA’s work to tackle market abuse.

NH
shall we move on?
BE
We shall. As noted, this is a criminal investigation so it’s best not to speculate too much.
11:11AM
NH
sorry just signing up to follow BrokermanDan on Twitter
NH
a source of good market moving news
NH
right
NH
to the market
NH
and
BE
We are down 9 at 5484
BE
So, basically holding at the four-month high because there’s nothing else to do.
BE
No catalysts either direction.
NH
none that I can see
NH
in fact
NH
today’s standout feature
NH
at the moment
NH
is Rightmove
Rightmove Plc (RMV:LSE): Last: 765.00, up 57.5 (+8.13%), High: 796.50, Low: 714.50, Volume: 619.12k
BE
Right. This is on the bid for a French rival, I assume.
BE
Sorry – not rival, peer.
NH
yep
NH
Axel Springer, Europe’s biggest newspaper group
NH
have made a rather punchy offer
NH
and that has left people asking if Rightmove is cheap
NH
or whether it could be acquired by a UK newspaper group
BE
(@WShak: do try to keep up, please.)
NH
Murdoch likes a little dabble in dot.com stuff
BE
Usually with no success.
NH
(WShak – you clearly don’t do irony. yellow card. in fact I might ban you for stupidity)
BE
Myspace is now worth zero. Z-E-R-O.
BE
Daily Mail also mentioned repeatedly as the kind of company that would bid for Rightmove.
NH
indeed
BE
And, as LE said, it’s very cashy so there’s a PE story that comes around habitually.
NH
Ah
NH
I was coming to that
NH
Rightmove does generate a lot of cash
NH
and it is the market leader
NH
a very strong market leader
NH
so it could definately be a target for someone
NH
I have a good note on this
NH
from WH Ireland
NH
the analyst is Eric Burns
NH
Axel Springer’s offer for SeLoger.com this morning looks like traditional print media
throwing in the towel and accepting it can no longer compete with online in the
property marketing game. This has obvious read across for RMV whose position in
the UK property portal market is unassailable. Whilst RMV’s valuation on
fundamental grounds is up with events, short term bid speculation is likely to be
enough to drive the price north of 800p a share.
NH
We note last night’s news that Axel Springer has made a €34 per share offer for
French property website SeLoger.com, RMV’s closest peer in Europe. The offer puts
a prospective P/E valuation of 22x on SeLoger or 13x on an EV/EBITDA basis. Given
the paltry 13% bid premium to last night’s close, we wonder if the bid might have to be
sweetened in order for Axel to get to 100%.
NH
Bid speculation in recent weeks has surrounded another online business,
Moneysupermarket.com (MONY, Underperform), although we had long regarded a
more likely takeover candidate to be RMV due to its superior returns and nearmonopolistic
market position. For comparison, after this morning’s spike, RMV sits on
23.3x and 13.6x respectively, levels in line with the valuation being put on SeLoger.
NH
With all four of the founding shareholders having sold out of RMV, there would be little
to stand in the way of a serious offer for the business. Any move is, in our opinion,
likely to be from a financially-motivated buyer (RMV has excellent free cash
generation) rather than a media player with none of the main UK players having a
strong enough balance sheet to fund such a move.
NH
Given the strong EPS growth expected in FY11 and FY12 (+16% and +12%), RMV’s
P/E falls quickly from 22.8x to 17.6x in FY12. This leads us to expect that a bidder
would likely pay up for such growth and a FY10 multiple of 25x to 30x would not seem
unreasonable. That would point to an exit price of up to 1000p.
· Corporate activity in the sector is likely to buoy the RMV share price for some time to
come and we have therefore raised our recommendation from Market Perform to
Outperform.
BE
Very good note that.
BE
(@Wshark: accepted.)
NH
it is
NH
but noye
NH
following this morning’s move
NH
Rightmove no valued in line with Sologer.com
NH
sorry
NH
typing is so bad today
NH
my computer keeps freezing
NH
very odd
NH
where now?
NH
Nokia have a new CEO
11:20AM
BE
So who’s in the Nokia ejector seat this time?
NH
Right
NH
these Scandi spellings are a bit tricky
NH
so I will cut and paste
NH
Nokia’s board this morning announced that it was replacing current CEO Kallasvuo with Stephen Elop, head of Microsoft’s Business Division. Mr. Elop is due to start on September 21st.
NH
(Dinker this one is terminal)
BE
(@Monevator: small point of pedantry, Google only launched its UK property site in mid June and RMV didn’t budge that day. It was the rumour that sent it lower at the start of the year.)
BE
And what’s Microsoft’s Business Division?
NH
it looks like the bit in charge of MS Office
NH
which doesn’t suggest
NH
that he is going to be the man to develop an iPhone killer
NH
that said
NH
he was on the shortlist for the CEO vacancy at HP
BE
Well, that’s something I guess.
NH
so he can obviously run a big complex organisation
NH
but….
NH
this rather sums things up from me
BE
And he’s not from the Entertainment and Devices Division, which is also a positive.
NH
comes from a Nomura note
NH
very understated
NH

What Mr Elop may have to work on in his new role includes a better understanding of the consumer electronics and mobile phone industries. In addition, the fundamental redesign of Nokia’s R&D organisation may also represent a new challenge
BE
Ha. That’s brilliant. “The fundamental redesign of Nokia’s R&D organisation may also represent a new challenge”
BE
Yes. Quite.
NH
something to get his teeth into this weekend
BE
And what’s the price reaction?
NH
the market likes it
NH
up 4.8% to 8.115 whatever kronas they are quoted in
NH
(Stats – most trackers can do it when they want)
NH
here’s some more comment from the Nomura note
NH

Probably not indicative of current trading trends as Nokia has been looking for at least 2 months

· No mass resignations of existing management expected

· Incoming CEO boasts software industry expertise and leadership of a major tech organisation (division)

· Incoming CEO lacks experience in consumer electronics and mobile phone markets

· Disruption to new platform launches possible – internal management changes likely

NH
hang on
NH
my copy paste function is broke
NH
is this new awful version of notes I have been given
NH
time to switch to Google Mail
NH
I can’t take mo more
NH
Multiple reasons for Mr Kallasvuo’s departure

We suspect that the headline reason for change is Nokia’s share price decline of 54% since Mr Kallasvuo’s appointment in June 2006 (EUR 16 – 7.5). Other issues include a slow reaction to the launch of the iPhone, the time taken to rebuild Nokia’s software platforms, the poorly handled launch of ovi and accompanying services, the excessive price paid for Navteq, an apparent mismatch in R&D spending and R&D output, and poor organisational decisions that have seen changes made early in Mr Kallasvuo’s tenure reversed by the end.

NH
Nokia’s chairman said in a press release “The time is right to accelerate the company’s renewal; to bring in new executive leadership with different skills and strengths in order to drive company success. The Nokia Board believes that Stephen has the right industry experience and leadership skills to realize the full potential of Nokia. His strong software background and proven record in change management will be valuable assets as we press harder to complete the transformation of the company. We believe that Stephen will be able to drive both innovation and efficient execution of the company strategy in order to deliver increased value to our shareholders.”

NH

Positive investor reaction expected – we remain neutral

We expect investors to react positively to the changes announced today. In our discussions with investors management was seen as a key barrier to investing in Nokia. The stock is currently a “hope” stock. There is clearly a material turnaround opportunity at Nokia. However, the drivers of this turnaround (new Symbian, MeeGo, Qt, etc) are yet to launch. There is thus no tangible evidence that a turnaround is about to happen. In terms of timing, we expect positive EPS momentum to take until Q2 2011 or beyond to emerge. A lack of confidence in management during this period is clearly a barrier to investing in the stock. Today’s changes may make it easier for investors to believe in a turnaround story at Nokia. Until Mr Elop announces a new strategy and executes on it the turnaround in management is also a bit of a ‘hope’ factor though.

BE
And, just to wrap up on Nokia, RBS like the cut of this chap’s jib.
NH
(Wshak have you met emptyend. you may get on)
BE
And they agree with new poster @savage says about giving up on Symbian and switching to Android.
BE
We upgrade Nokia from Hold to Buy and upgrade our TP from EUR 6.70 to EUR 10.00. The
appointment of a new CEO is the key catalyst that we had been waiting for. Although
competition remains fierce, we believe margins can improve through cost cutting and the
adoption of a third party OS like Android.
BE
Nokia appointed a new CEO, Stephen Elop, this morning. We believe the new CEO has got
the right background (Microsoft, Adobe, Juniper, Macromedia) in software and hardware to
drive change at Nokia. Beyond the necessary portfolio refresh that is unlikely to kick in before
2H11F, we believe that Mr Elop has substantial room to cut costs, particularly in R&D (EUR
2.9bn in 2010) as it has not delivered any differentiation for Nokia. Should Nokia adopt a third
party OS like Android or Windows Mobile, we believe it could drive down its R&D-to-sales to
5-7% of sales vs 10% currently. This alone could help Nokia improve its Device EBIT
margins from 8-9% to 13-15%. Beyond cost cutting, a new portfolio could also revive the topline
growth to 5-10% vs our current expectation of 0%, which could drive EBIT margins to the
mid-teens on a sustained basis.
BE
Favourable risk/reward warrants a Buy rating
Assuming limited/no top-line recovery but successful cost cutting, we believe the shares could
rally to EUR 10.0 (assuming 10.5% group EBIT margin/13.5% EBIT margin in Devices), which is
our new base case and target price (29% upside). A full recovery (14% group EBIT margin with
7% top line growth and 16.5% EBIT margin in Devices) would drive our fair value of the shares to
EUR 14 (81% upside). The downside risk is that Mr Elop fails to not only revive the top line but
also cut costs and remains faithful to Symbian for smartphones. In this case, we would expect the
stock to fall to EUR 6.0 (7.5% group EBIT margins, -5% top line growth and 8.5% EBIT margin in
Devices), implying 22% downside.
Upgrade to Buy with a new TP of EUR 10.0; EPS estimates raised
Given the positive risk/reward (22% downside risk to our bear case and 81% upside risk to our
bull case), we upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy and raise our TP from EUR 6.70 to EUR 10.
We have upped our FY11/12F EPS from EUR 0.55/EUR 0.56 to EUR 0.64/EUR 0.75 based on
lowered opex in D&S. At our TP, the stock would trade on FY12F P/E of 13.3x (11.7x P/E ex
cash).
BE
Right. That’s more than enough Nokia. Let’s move on.
11:30AM
NH
Where now?
NH
to the pub
BE
Certainly. Toxic or Mullet?
NH
Mullet
NH
today
JD Wetherspoon PLC (JDW:LSE): Last: 423.80, down 19.7 (-4.44%), High: 443.50, Low: 423.80, Volume: 309.15k
BE
Why’s that?
NH
well the prelims are out
NH
and well
NH
it seems the market doesn’t like something
NH
it could be that sales have been boosted by breakfasts
NH
so Wetherspoon is more a Greasyspoon
NH
than a pub
NH
JD Greasyspoon
NH
ever tried one?
BE
Lordy no. I’m liquid only before midday.
BE
So what’s the upshot of the statement? Trading duff?
NH
dunno
NH
let me get some comment
NH
clearly a tough market at the moment
NH
here’s Numis
NH
they are cutting forecasts by 6%
NH
Full year PBT rose 7% to £71m (our consensus-in-line forecast was £72.0m) with
LFL sales up 0.1% and margins down 20bps to 10.0%. Current trading is slightly
better than expected with LFL sales up 1.5%, largely due to earlier opening times.
We expect minimal growth in 2011E, for which we are cutting forecasts by 6% to
reflect higher interest, repair and labour costs
NH
We are cutting our 2011E PBT forecast from £76.8m to £72.0m (consensus £76.1m).
We assume that LFL sales fall by 0.3%, margins slip by 20bps and 50 new sites open.
In 2011E, utility and food costs are expected to rise in line with inflation, but the
downgrade reflects expectations of higher interest, repair and labour costs. The other
key issue in 2011E is whether the next VAT increase proves difficult to pass on given
that it should be too expensive to absorb.
In 2011E, we expect JDW to generate minimal earnings growth, pay dividends
(yielding 2.7%) and pay down just 6% of its debt. The rating (2011E PE 12.1x
EV/EBITDA 6.4x) is not strenuous versus historical precedent, but it is difficult to
envisage a positive cataylst.
NH
so margin fears it is
BE
Righty ho. Who’d have thought the £1.50 pint and the £2.99 burger would lead to weaker margins?
BE
Bit of Deutsche Bank to round up. From Geof Collyer, who I think is top rated in the sector.
NH
go ahead
BE
Headlines: Everything in line, but with cautious outlook statement as expected.
The company indicated “resilient’ peformance ahead, which in our
view usually means little if any progress expected.
BE
Trading: Lfls in past 6 weeks are +1.5%, but this is against a flat comp, so
JDW still lurking at the lower end of the sector lfl performance with Punch
Tavern’s (H; 85p) managed estate. This compares with Greene King’s (B;
430p) latest quarter which was +4.4% against a comp of +4.4%. No final
dividend as the whole year’s reinstated amount plus bonus was paid out
back in April before taxes went up. We estimate that the lfl top line growth,
such as it was, has been generated by the new breakfast strategic initiative,
which is going to take some time to generate incremental profit and is likely
to drag on margins for the next year or so, and margins have drifted back a
touch in the year.
BE
Property: There is no step-up in the rate of openings that
had been forecast by some of the bulls. This could also be seen as a bit
disappointing, following the chairman’s comments back in late April regarding
the potential for acquiring a large tranche of freehold pubs (widely
understood to be a thinly veiled reference to some of the Mitchells & Butlers
(H; 3098p) sites that have recently been sold to another company – see
Reuters article of 20 April, our report of 21 April).
BE
Conclusion: JDW is doing all the good housekeeping things (focusing on
the minutiae of the business, etc), but like some of its peers, is struggling
in a tough UK consumer market where the outlook is not improving. We
would be surprised if anyone raised forecasts today, and expect consensus
to drift backwards if anything. Our forecasts are broadly consensual, but we
see modest downside risk from (i) margin erosion, (ii) higher refurbishment
spend, and (iii) higher than expected financing costs.
11:37AM
BE
So, it’s Friday.
BE
do we have a little something for the weekend?
NH
I thought you’d never ask
BE
Raw. Rumourtrage. Goss. Anything.
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
interesting story this
NH
De La Rue
De La Rue Plc (DLAR:LSE): Last: 668.50, down 1.5 (-0.22%), High: 671.00, Low: 666.00, Volume: 92.19k
NH
obviously have some issues at the moment
NH
but I am told
NH
that Melrose, this consolidation thingy
NH
is running the slide rule over them
NH
Now, I wouldn’t get too excited
NH
because we still don’t the extent of the dodgy banknote problem at De La Rue
NH
but interesting
BE
Hang on – Melrose?
BE
The thing that bought FKI?
BE
I guess they haven’t done a deal for ages.
NH
Nope
NH
they have been very quiet
NH
and I would imagine all that FKI stuff
NH
has been bedded down or sold now
BE
The timeline on their website is rather uneventful.
BE
Listed. Bought one thing. Bought another thing. Sold one thing. That’s it.
BE
Are they really a credible bidder for the likes of De La Rue? Or are we just suggesting that it’s on the radar for all sorts of bottom fishers now?
NH
(Mone – it was a dead cat)
NH
bottom fishing
NH
taking a look I expect
BE
So. Any more?
NH
one more
NH
for small cap oil fans
Sterling Energy PLC (SEY:LSE): Last: 125.75, up 6 (+5.01%), High: 130.00, Low: 119.50, Volume: 1.08m
NH
apparently a drilling update on the way
NH
from thw oiliest region on earth
NH
Kurdistan
NH
they had a delay a while back
NH
urther to the announcement dated 6 August 2010, the repairs to the Sakson drilling rig have now been completed and the rig has resumed operations. Sterling’s plan is to continue testing the prospectivity of the Sangaw North #1 exploration well previously identified from the wire-line log data and drilling shows over the open-hole interval of 1,450m to 2,395m.

It is estimated that the testing will take approximately 10 days to complete, after which the plan is to drill ahead through the remaining Cretaceous section and then to the deeper potential reservoirs in the Jurassic. Due to the delays incurred whilst the rig was undergoing repairs, the well is now expected to reach its planned depth of 3,660m during the 4th quarter of 2010.

NH
but there could be news soon
NH
(dinker – Morgan Sindall)
BE
Hang on. Neil on the phone.
BE
What’s that all about?
NH
hang on
NH
ASOS
NH
more bid rumours
Asos PLC (ASC:LSE): Last: 1,075, up 42 (+4.07%), High: 1,076, Low: 1,004, Volume: 164.63k
NH
sceptical on this one
NH
by if Rightmove is up
NH
and they are digital
NH
why not ASOS
NH
anything from you Bryce?
BE
Interesting story this morning from our colleagues at DealReporter on the Rightard favourite Regal Petroleum.
Regal Petroleum Plc (RPT:LSE): Last: 30.75, up 0.5 (+1.65%), High: 31.50, Low: 30.25, Volume: 1.24m
NH
go on
BE
Shareholders disillusioned with Regal Petroleum’s [RPT LN] share price performance backed a proposal last month to replace the company’s chief executive David Greer with Atul Gupta, the former head of Burren Energy, this news service can reveal.
NH
I love the way they end that
NH
this news service can reveal
NH
Pestoesque
BE
Hey – you know paywall economics as well as I do. Want a bit more?
NH
yes pls
BE
Confirmation of the plan is contained in a 6 August letter sent to the company’s non-executive chairman Keith Henry from Mirabaud Securities, Regal’s broker. The letter referred to concerns of a “significant investor” who has proposed Greer be replaced by Gupta. Several other shareholders are understood to have expressed support for the plan. People close to Mirabaud and Regal said they were aware of the existence of the letter.
NH
Of course
NH
there is only MAN
NH
who can really turn round the fortunes of Regal
NH
Frank, get me a vodka, Timis
NH
unfortunately
NH
he seems to be otherwise engaged in Sierra Leone
NH
in fact
NH
has Timis signed that deal with the Chinese for African Minerals
NH
I thought that was supposed to be done and dusted by now
BE
Not that I’ve seen. Delayed by inclemency?
NH
oh yes
NH
delayed by bad weather
NH
I think Frank was quoted yesterday saying that he would personally close the deal
NH
and who would doubt that
NH
shares down 5.25p at 397.5p at the moment
BE
Well, with a reassurance that Fran’s personally on the case, all my concerns evaporate
BE
I assume Google’s still banned in China, right?
NH
I believe so
11:49AM
NH
Remaining in the resources space for a moment
NH
some news out today from the company who’se name we can’t spell or even say
Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LSE): Last: 1,161, up 6 (+0.52%), High: 1,189, Low: 1,150, Volume: 1.01m
BE
So have they announced the iron ore spinoff?
NH
yes
NH
a nice bit of IPO tourism this
NH
so
NH
the iron biz was spun off a couple of years ago for some cash
NH
called Aricom and was listed over here
NH
POG bought it back
NH
because it needed to the company’s cash
NH
that’s now been stripped out
NH
and the company is going to be relisted in Hong Kong
NH
how nifty is that?
BE
A neat bit of corporate engineering.
NH
but who would buy it?
NH
a mean seriously how do you IPO that
BE
Well, Rusal got away.
BE
Somehow.
NH
true
NH
I have some comment
NH
lots of analysts like POG
NH
even though there are lots of other gold plays in the UK market now
NH
here’s Evo Securities
NH
Petropavlovsk has moved much closer to realising its goal of a Hong Kong
listing for its iron ore operations. This is now expected to be completed in
October, subject to final approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
and that the company raises the required amount of money at the right
price. Given the sale of a stake in the division for US$60m in June we
believe that pricing will be relatively straightforward and that the scope
for considerable future growth in production and earnings will enhance
demand. We view this as good news for Petropavlovsk. Buy.
NH
We think the listing is important for three reasons. First, it raises cash for the
separate development of the iron ore operations which will not now be dependent
on the parent company for funding. Second, the Hong Kong listing will raise the
company’s profile in Asia – where its key customers are located. And finally, it
leaves Petropavlovsk as a pure-play gold producer with scope for a rerating.
NH
Indeed, our 1410p valuation of Petropavlovsk as a stand-alone gold producer is
considerably higher than the current share price. On top of this, we expect that it
will retain a stake in the iron ore operations which will be much easier to value
from its daily share price quotation. We believe that it provides considerable
scope for a rerating and strongly reiterate our Buy recommendation.
NH
and yes
NH
Jay Hambro will be the executive chairman of the new vehicle
NH
Petropavlovsk has announced that it has decided to proceed with an IPO of its iron ore assets on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The new entity is to be called IRC Ltd and will be headquartered in Hong Kong. IRC is expected to become a listed entity in October 2010. This has been widely spoken about so shouldn’t come as a surprise. The timing is a bit sooner than expected but it was anticipated before year end.

This should be positive for POG today as they move to become a pure gold play again, thereby opening up the stock to gold funds, and hopefully getting the woeful 0.4x to NAV re-rated.

Jay Hambro will be Executive Chairman and Yury Makarov will be CEO.

NH
that’s from a sector watcher
NH
opening the stock up to gold funds
NH
that might explain it
BE
0.4x to NAV?
BE
That’s pricing in a lot of Russia risk.
BE
Hm. That kind of price always suggests someone’s got it wrong here. The market, or the management.
BE
We’ll see I guess.
11:56AM
NH
Right
NH
is our Sainsbury fan around today?
NH
Come on
NH
you know who you are
J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY:LSE): Last: 378.60, down 0.9 (-0.24%), High: 381.60, Low: 377.60, Volume: 1.42m
NH
I have a little treat
NH
an upgrade
NH
Better trading momentum and we hope, profit to match
Recent market share data puts Sainsbury’s Q2 in-store growth at around 5.5-6%
compared to our previous estimate of 4.5-5%. Higher inflation has seemingly
helped, but with that growth pointing to LFLs of near 3%, we expect profit has
been resilient to match. Given the shares’ recent good performance, they may be
due a pause, but for us, we still see longer term potential. Moving our price target
to 2011/12E, we raise our PO to 430p (from 380p) and reiterate our Buy rating
NH
Sainsbury’s good fundamentals will be increasingly visible
Across the next year, we believe that the payback of years of investment in nonfood
and the group’s property pipeline will become increasingly visible to
consumers and investors alike. There’s still plenty to do, range improvements and
better inventory management in non-food two areas of focus for us. But we see
the glass as half-full and buy into management’s plans to improve the offer.
NH
Share’s upside our focus but the downside is protected too
For the shares, our estimates increasingly diverge with consensus the further you
move out (3% in 2010/11E, >10% in 2012/13E) and we’re confident enough in
them to say it’s consensus that needs to catch up with the payback from
Sainsbury’s investment. On the downside, we see the shares as very well
protected by both bid speculation and property backing.
NH
oh
BE
Second in two days, if I’m not mistaken. Citi yesterday.
NH
bid speculation
BE
Of course. Bid spec, property backing, non food margin expansion.
BE
It’s the SBRY.L tick list.
NH
Emoticon
11:59AM
NH
Okay it is almost midday
NH
anything to round up on?
NH
a few downgrades around
G4S Plc (GFS:LSE): Last: 252.60, down 3.7 (-1.44%), High: 256.40, Low: 251.50, Volume: 1.61m
NH
been cut by Credit Suisse
NH
but that’s none too interesting
BE
Ah yes – that was knocking around yesterday afternoon, but was ignored post lunch.
BE
Talking about low interest rates meaning customers don’t have to use its cash transportation business so much.
BE
Which is a clever bit of lateral thinking.
NH
they will if Bernanke launches the helicopters
BE
Good point. Buy the company that once lost the QE2 on the possible launch of QE2.
BE
Nice circularity to that.
BE
Anyway, can we have a look at the note?
NH
If we must
NH
Downgrade rating to Neutral: Following the H1 results we downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) with a price target of 280p. Our 2011E EPS estimates fall 5% to reflect ongoing weakness in the cash solutions division, tough trading conditions in Europe and further delays in the signing of the NASA contract in the US.
NH
Investment Case: GFS continues to shift its focus away from the commoditised manned guarding businesses in the US and western Europe towards new markets, integrated security solutions and longer term government contracts. While this will, we believe, generate revenue growth above the industry average the business faces near term challenges. Its cash solutions business is being held back by low interest rates, which lower both the propensity to outsource services and the required frequency of existing services. Security markets in Europe are challenging, particularly in Eastern Europe, and increasingly competitive as providers adapt to a low growth environment. Compounding the low volumes is lower inflation in most end markets, which is limiting organic growth rates. We expect organic revenues growth to remain below 5% for the next 18 months and with no imminent catalysts see limited near term upside to the share price.
NH
Catalysts: GFS will report Q3 IMS on 8th November

Valuation: Our DCF derived price target falls to 280p. At the current price GFS trades at 11.2x 2011E P/E (an 17% premium to the market) with a 7.5% FCF yield to EV and EV/EBIT of 11.2x. This compares to a median P/E of 12.5x, and median market relative premium of 11%

12:02PM
NH
Other movers today
NH
include BTG
NH
which is up on some readacross from J&J in the US
BTG Plc (BGC:LSE): Last: 210.80, up 9 (+4.46%), High: 213.80, Low: 199.00, Volume: 1.48m
NH
10% upgrade to target price on good news
The positive news from BTG’s commercial partner J&J
leads us to reconsider our conservative valuation
assumption for Abiraterone. Clear success leads us to
think it could be a $1bn pa drug for prostate cancer (from
$300m) and we upgrade the chance of success from 32% to
70%. Target price up to 260p.
NH
tis is from KBC Peel Hunt
NH
Each of BTG’s drugs continues to surprise us on the upside. We
clearly had overly bearish views on Abiraterone, did not think CytoFab would
make it into later-stage trials, and was not expecting a large Campath deal
between Genzyme and Bayer. BTG has taken the correct strategy to develop
drugs in out-licensing and stands to benefit from leveraging a solid revenuegenerating
IP portfolio and US speciality business. Changes to our Abiraterone
model lead us to upgrade our target price by 10%. BTG is a quality platform
company with strength in depth; Buy.
BE
Ok – ta.
BE
Meanwhile, some interesting comments from ABB on Bloomberg this morning.
NH
oh no
BE
Post the speculation that they’re buying everyone.
NH
not the Invensys bid story again
BE
Or the Agrekko bid story.
Invensys PLC (ISYS:LSE): Last: 272.20, up 2.2 (+0.81%), High: 273.20, Low: 269.20, Volume: 1.32m
Aggreko PLC (AGK:LSE): Last: 1,545, up 14 (+0.91%), High: 1,547, Low: 1,529, Volume: 163.26k
NH
can we have a look at these comments?
BE
This is from CFO Michel Demare
BE
Demare says the group expects to at “at least” maintain its dividend next year and prefers to use its cash for acquisitions rather than share buybacks.
BE
“At this stage we are still more excited by the M&A opportunities that we see in front of us,”
BE
“It obviously requires that we can make a transaction at the right price. But we want to keep this firepower to do so.”
BE
Meanwhile, the CEO Joseph “Hulk” Hogan says ABB continues to look for acquisitions, but has no plans to expand into a new business area.
NH
I suspect this one is not going to go away
BE
Nope. It’s not.
12:06PM
NH
OK
NH
Lorcan was asking about the Deutsche Bank cash call
NH
which I actually think is a rather smart move
NH
a lot of people didn’t want to invest
NH
until this was out of the way
NH
this is from Merrill
NH
Underweight-30% Deutsche Bank senior CDS at 108bps. The Financial Times this
morning leads with an article that Deutsche Bank is planning a €9bn equity offering.
Our Underweight recommendations on Deutsche Bank historically have at least partly
reflected concerns with respect to its capital levels (Tier 1 of 11.3% compared to
Credit Suisse’s 16.3%). Deutsche Bank’s investment case has effectively been frozen,
in our view, pending its recapitalization. If the news that there will be a capital raise of up to €9bn is confirmed, it will – in our opinion – move the rationale for investing in Deutsche forward. Such a move would not be especially surprising, however, as it
would come after the CEBS stress test where Deutsche performed relatively strongly,
with a stressed T1 ratio of 9.7%.
NH
It appears from the press reports that the rationale
for the capital raise could be raising its stake in Deutsche Postbank (DPB) and also
the new capital regulations likely to come from Basel this weekend.

We believe that capital raises by European banks would be a very strong support to
our generally constructive thesis on the sector. Following the stress tests, which we
thought provided a decent backdrop to the autumn primary issuance season, we had
hoped that the sector would receive another positive leg up from capital increases,
though we had thought this would be the ‘grey’ area banks (banks with stressed T1
ratios of between 6-8%). We show these banks in the tables below. In our view, it is
less the major banks like Deutsche who have pressing capital needs, than the smaller
banks. However, these smaller banks may be precisely the ones that would have
greatest difficulty with a credible capital increase – which itself points to a potential
wave of consolidation amongst these banks. Note that of the banks in the tables
below, National Bank of Greece has also announced a capital increase this week.
That said, major systemic banks like Deustche may well be penalised (because of
their importance) as a result of the new Basel rules, so their capital needs are
correspondingly more significance.

NH
interesting to note
NH
that if Deutsche raises the mooted amount
NH
and buys more of Deutsche Postbank
BE
(@Lady E: have a good break. Do send us a postcard.)
NH
it’s Tier 1 core equity will only be around 7.8%
NH
just above the likely new requirement from the Basel III
NH
a bit more from Merrill on this
NH
In the past, DB has only said that it will raise equity for acquisitions. If the reports
are correct, it would appear that the bank needs to move to increase its stake in
Deutsche Postbank where it already owns 29% sooner rather than later to limit
the cost of the acquisition. However, the cost of DPB would only be around €4.5-
5bn. DPB would probably also need some recapitalisation itself – recall that in the
CEBS stress tests, DPB was definitely one of the weaker banks. Its stressed T1
New Basel regulations, due this weekend, will also provide a convenient cloak for
the capital raise. It will be recalled that the German Bankers Association this week
said that the new rules would lead to capital needs from the German banks of
€100bn+. When we look at the hybrid component of Deutsche Bank’s capital, we
see that Deutsche has issued some €11.6bn of hybrid capital instruments, at least
some of which over time will have to be replaced. Basel of course also has a big
impact on banks with large trading books.
Thus, though the reported size of the equity offering may initially seem surprising, it is
also relatively easy to see the rationale for why it could be so.
12:08PM
NH
and we should also mention
NH
Morgan Sindall
BE
Ah yes – vulturing over the corpse of CNT.
NH
which look to have picked up bargain from the Connaught administrators
Connaught Plc (CNT:LSE): Last: 16.65, no change, Volume: 0.00
NH
we must keep using that ticker
NH
before its gone
Morgan Sindall PLC (MGNS:LSE): Last: 707.00, up 45.5 (+6.88%), High: 784.00, Low: 655.00, Volume: 180.25k
NH
here’s a bit of analysis on the deal
NH
The Connaught deal makes Morgan Sindall a market leader in Social Housing. The process was inevitably rushed. And plenty of risks. But price paid should result in value creation for shareholders. Market initially over-reacted. Estimate 9% EPS enhancement for FY 2012. Adj. CY 2011 EV/EBIT of 3.1x, P/E of 8.6x and dividend yield of 5.9% are too cheap. Target price from 700p to 750p. BUY.

NH
Bulking up Affordable Housing – MGNS has announced the acquisition of c. 70% of CNT’s newly estimated sales in Social Housing. The £200m of additional sales divides evenly between planned maintenance, where MGNS already has £200m of sales, and reactive maintenance, where MGNS only has c. £25m of sales.

NH
An entrepreneurial deal – MGNS has paid £28m to the administrators. They believe that this is a premium to the ‘hard’ assets in the business, e.g. stock and WIP less than one month old. The business is debt free, but there is a short-term working capital commitment of c. £10m. It fits the strategy well.
NH
No time for hanging about – Given the high publicity around CNT, and the nervousness of customers we believe that this was a rapid process. There were originally ten parties interested. There was no exclusive access. And detailed due diligence only took 36 hours.
NH
Plenty of risks – We are still not sure what actually happened at CNT. MGNS primarily attributes the problems to poor contract pricing and poor contract performance. The risk is that there are other issues, which are not yet properly understood, such as recognition of unagreed income, and issues with accounting and reporting. MGNS’s management say that they have paid greater attention to the cash than the profits, which we think is just as well.
BE
Very good move, that .Three quarters of the contracts by revenue.
BE
Saved a few jobs, I’d imagine.
NH
and saved a load of jobs
NH
and Lorcan
NH
the Deutsche Bank cash call
NH
will be followed by lots of others
NH
and the banks in Europe that can’t get a cash call
NH
will be forced to merge
NH
will be a busy autumn in that space I think
BE
So we can all enjoy when headlines like today’s Daily Mail go pan-European.
NH
what did they do?
BE
“ROBBED BY THE BANKS WE OWN”
BE
“WE” is underlined.
NH
nice
NH
Robbed by the banks WE own: As interest rates are held at 0.5% for the 18th month in a row, overdraft rates soar to 19% at taxpayer-funded RBS and NatWest
NH
Banks are ‘fleecing’ their most cash-strapped customers by charging record overdraft rates.

These hit a new high last month, averaging 19.1 per cent, despite the Bank of England keeping interest rates at a 300-year low.

The worst offenders were NatWest and Royal Bank of Scotland, part of the RBS group in which the taxpayer holds an 84 per cent stake.

NH
Both charged overdraft rates on a range of current accounts of well over 19 per cent.

The August average is 38 times higher than the base rate of 0.5 per cent, which means the banks are cashing in every time one of their customers falls into the red.

If account holders exceed their overdraft limit they face further penalties in the form of fees and even higher rates.

BE
And, as ever with a Daily Mail story, the most entertainment is found by skipping to the reader comments.
BE
These banks should have their hands chopped off…..crooks in suit’s.

- MKMONE, LONDON, 9/9/2010 22:20

NH
lovely
NH
that should solve the issue
NH
any more?
NH
(endgame – it was Merrill)
BE
Hang on. That one was #2 in terms of positive ratings. But there are 88 to work through.
BE
GREEDY OVERPAID ROBBERS, PEOPLE ARE STRUGGLING TO KEEP THEIR HOMES AND TO KEEP THEIR HEADS ABOVE WATER WHEN THESE CRETINS PILE ON THE AGONY.
WHERE ARE THE WATCHDOGS AND THE LAWS TO PROTECT THE CUSTOMERS.

- Terry Norman, Canvey Island, 9/9/2010 21:02

NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
hours of amusement guranteed
BE
Indeed. You can easily lose a day on the Daily Mail site if you’re not careful.
BE
So anyway, are we done for the week?
NH
we are. thanks for logging on everyone.
NH
FTSE 100 now down 4 points at 5,489
NH
looks like it will be a quiet end to the week
NH
and just how quite things are
NH
is shown by the profit warning from Arden Partners today
Arden Partners Plc (ARDN:LSE): Last: 43.50, down 14 (-24.35%), High: 45.00, Low: 42.50, Volume: 57.70k
BE
Did they? Oh dear.
NH
Since our interim announcement on 22 June 2010, the equity trading environment has been challenging. The corporate finance pipeline remains satisfactory although, as always, the timing of transactions is uncertain. In addition, in recent months the Company has taken action to reduce headcount and overhead expenses and this has resulted in exceptional termination costs.

In view of the above, it is now unlikely that the Company will meet market expectations for the year ending 31st October 2010.

NH
and that’s it
NH
goodbye
NH
and have a enjoyable weekend
NH
cya
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