At this point, we may as well throw our hands in the air and give up trying to figure out in which direction US employment is trending.
Weekly unemployment insurance claims posted a big decline for the second time in the last three weeks on Thursday, falling 27,000 to 451,000.
Given the volatility and normal revisions to the number, the more crucial indicator is the four-week moving average, which also fell by 9,250, to 477,750. Previously the average had been at its highest point since last December.
Here’s the chart from the St Louis Fed:
So although weekly claims are still high, they would seem to again be moving in a hopeful direction.
But today’s numbers follow Wednesday’s Beige Book from the Fed, which offered mixed employment news while noting “widespread signs of a deceleration” in the economy.
And on Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its monthly employment trends index for August had declined, the second fall in four months.
Meanwhile, job vacancies are climbing, though they’re not getting filled very quickly.
Finally, last week’s payroll numbers came out better than expected, but these expectations were quite low and not everybody was convinced they were any good.
In addition to the other problems with looking at too many economic indicators, we’re also getting dizzy.
Related links:
Unemployment insurance weekly claims report – Department of Labor
So much for “better than expected” – FT Alphaville
A revisionist history of the week begining Aug 30, 2010 – FT Alphaville