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Markets Live transcript 7 Sep 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:20 on 7 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Joseph Cotterill

NH
Hola
NH
It’s 11.03 am
NH
and time for another session of Markets Live
NH
FT Alpha’s daily stock market discussion forum
NH
with me
NH
and er, me.
NH
Bryce hasn’t made it in yet because of the Tube strike
NH
Izy didn’t bother
NH
although Joseph bravely battled through the clogged streets
NH
so a big thanks to Bob Crow for making all our lives a bit more difficult
NH
cheers
11:04AM
NH
Right
NH
I might have to draft Joseph in for today’s session because I have heard nothing from Bryce
NH
but we might have to wait a moment or two
NH
he’s just finishing a post on Barclays
NH
actually he’s updating
NH
i was wondering why the price was down
NH
on the appointment of Diamond Bob as CEO
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 311.85, down 11 (-3.41%), High: 320.00, Low: 310.80, Volume: 19.22m
NH
after all
NH
we all know DB runs the bank anyway
NH
and Barclays
NH
is an investment bank
NH
but then it struck me
NH
the reason barclays is down
NH
was this story in the WSJ
NH
about the way the banks have been fudging the recent stress test
NH
and Barclays featured pretty prominately in the story
NH
which I will just get
NH
urgh
NH
WSJ doesn’t link in its stories
NH
got it
NH
here’s the top of the story
NH
LONDON—Europe’s recent “stress tests” of the strength of major banks understated some lenders’ holdings of potentially risky government debt, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.

As part of the tests, 91 of Europe’s largest banks were required to reveal how much government debt from European countries they held on their balance sheets. Regulators said the figures showed banks’ total holdings of that debt as of March 31.

At the time, worries about banks’ government-debt holdings were fanning fears about the health of Europe’s banking system as a whole. Release of the bank data was considered the main benefit of the stress tests, which were widely criticized as being lenient overall.

NH
and the bits on barclays
NH
But some banks’ figures didn’t represent their total holdings. Barclays, for example, excluded some government bonds it was holding for trading purposes. The rationale, according to Barclays officials, was that the bonds were directly related to transactions the big U.K. bank was performing for corporate or government clients, and that the holdings vary widely from day to day. Barclays didn’t disclose that it wasn’t listing its full holdings.

Excluding the bonds reduced Barclays’ portfolio of Italian sovereign debt—which the bank said was £787 million ($1.22 billion)—by about £4.7 billion, Barclays officials said. The bank’s holdings of Spanish government bonds, listed at £4.4 billion, shrank by about £1.6 billion.

Barclays said it excluded the holdings based on guidance from CEBS, which was communicated to the bank via the U.K.’s Financial Services Authority. “We’ve done exactly what CEBS told us,” a Barclays spokesman said.

NH
Right
NH
Joseph is joining us
NH
as Bryce is now officially MIA
NH
again thanks Bob Crow
NH
hang on
NH
we have made contact with Bryce
NH
Bryce here. In a cab with Miles, passing Baker St. Can you start without me?
NH
he might have sent it a bit earlier than 11.01
JC
I’m here in any case…
NH
morning
NH
thanks for stepping in
JC
No probs. Any more on Diamond Bank?
NH
not really
NH
I wonder whether the timing of the appointment
NH
is a signal to the govt
NH
that if their indepedent committee does recommend
NH
the split of IB’s and retail banks
NH
Bob will relist Barclays elsewhere
NH
New York or Singapore
JC
Although I reckon he doesn’t want to – needs retail revenue
JC
But if pushed, Bob will fight back
JC
There’s an interesting bit from Evo on this btw
NH
(soundby there is nothing wrong with two colleagues sharing a cab. nothing at all(
JC
Will just put up note (Evo have been bearish on Barc btw)
JC
As we said in our note yesterday, we calculate that by 2012 Barclays would be allocating 76% of its capital to CIB, and that was a concern for us – as we only forecast a 12% sust. RoE for its CIB division.

We also mentioned the fact that BARC’s retail expansion was far from having been a success: although very profitable, Retail and ABSA should consume only 24% of capital by 2012E. Within Retail, countries like Spain and Italy, in which BARC has been present many years, should only generate 2% of Group profits by 2012, in our forecasts.

All in, we feel that the management changes at BARC are likely to make even more pronounced what we consider to be its main weakness: too much CIB, too little Retail.

Given the low returns that we expect from CIB (and the £2bn Head Office losses and minorities) we expect BARC to generate RoE below its CoE for at least the next 3 years (sust. RoE 2012E: 9.5%).

NH
(City we don’t think he does. Bob needs retail deposits. BarCap can’t stand on its own and expand aggressively)
NH
thanks for that
NH
here’s a few thoughts from Merrill
NH
Barclays has just announced that Bob Diamond will succeed John Varley as
Group CEO from 31 March 2011. From 1 October 2010 Bob Diamond will be the
President and Deputy Group CEO. Mr Varley will become a senior advisor on
regulatory matters until 30 September 2011.

Bob Diamond has long been considered a contender for the Chief Executive role
and the topic has been the source of investor debate for a long time, with concern
that Bob Diamond would leave Barclays if he didn’t get the top job. News of
promotion to Group CEO does not, therefore, come as a surprise, though the
timing of Varley’s departure potentially may surprise some

NH
Having steered Barclays through the crisis it is understandable that Mr Varley
might want to do something different and concentrate on Charity work and nonexecutive directorships. We also note that he is approaching 55, which for many
is a logical retirement date. Importantly with his departure not until September
2011, he will still be around to represent Barclays’ interests in the UK Banking
Commission’s inquiry into the Universal Banking model and ensure a smooth
transition.

Short term there may be question marks over Bob Diamond’s commitment to the
global Retail and Commercial Banking businesses and his ability, given his
investment baking focus, to steward this business effectively. We would be less
concerned about this given that Bob has sat on the Group’s Operating Committee
for the last 14 years and he will be well aware of the benefits of having Retail
deposits in part supporting the investment banking business.

NH
Overall, while we are sure there will be question marks over Bob Diamond’s
Retail commitment, today’s news removes an element of speculation around
Barclays and ensures continuity within the top management team. We wouldn’t
expect there to be a big share price reaction in either direction. We maintain the
positive view on Barclays. It continues to be the cheapest of the global universal
banks, which for the franchise and RoE capability looks wrong in our view.
Separately the BBC is reporting this morning that Stephen Green, Chairman of
HSBC, will become the new UK Trade Minister. Mr Green had announced his
intention to leave HSBC a long time ago so this news does not come as a
surprise.
NH
Now
NH
while we are on the banks
NH
I have something from Die Welt
JC
Not more of that ever-popular Basel III stuff?
NH
yes
NH
they claim to have a copy
NH
apparently it’s all supposed to be agreed today
NH
anyway
NH
here’s a take from a broker
NH
and it looks pretty negative I would say
NH
Reuters today make reference to Die Zeit newspaper (see below), which claims that they have a copy of the Basel III proposals. We presume this is the final form of the proposals since it talks of minimum capital ratios, which are set to be agreed today by the Basel Committee. The minimum ratios are at the more onerous end of what the market has been expecting, particularly if we also accept the claim that there will be an anti-cyclical buffer during boom times, to be added on top of the minimum capital ratio and conservation buffer. This, we believe, is incrementally negative and is one of the reasons why the market is weak today.

NH
By our interpretation of the article, the key points are as follows:

i) Minimum Tier 1 ratio of 9.0%, including a “conservation buffer” of 3.0%. This means to us that there will be an absolute minimum Tier 1 ratio of 6.0%, with a capital “conservation buffer” of 3.0% added on top of this. If the bank is within the conservation buffer, then it will be restricted from paying dividends and bonuses in order to organically build capital until the Tier 1 ratio (including buffer) is above 9.0%.

NH
ii) Of incrementally negative concern is the possibility that banks will be forced to build up an “anti-cyclical buffer” of 3.0%, (on top of the conservation buffer), so that the minimum Tier 1 capital ratio rises to 12.0% in boom times. In our view this is particularly onerous and has not been anticipated by the market at all. It would, of course, put further pressure on banks to retain earnings, even when they are strongly positive. Only the Nordic banks (DNB NOR, Handelsbanken and Nordea), by our analysis, stand any chance of meeting this very high ratio in the near term.

NH
Of more relevance to equity investors is the assertion that there will be a minimum Core Tier 1 ratio of 5.0%, on top of which will be a 2.5% conservation buffer and then a 2.5% anti-cyclical buffer. It seems strange to us that the conservation buffer and anti-cyclical buffer are different to those applied to the Tier 1 ratio. In any case, these ratios are again quite onerous. By our analysis, BBVA, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, Lloyds, Santander, Unicredit and Barclays (i.e. majority of banks that we cover) are at risk of being in the conservation buffer (between 5.0% and 7.5%). This is using ratios as of year-end 2009 though. By 2013, substantial organic capital (and perhaps some reduction of RWA) will have been achieved. However, our analysis shows that BBVA, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit and Barclays would still be at risk of being in the conservation buffer (i.e. having a Core Tier 1 ratio below 7.5%) even by year-end 2013. We are re-working our numbers for the latest draft that the Basel Committee has issued, but we do not expect it to be substantially different to our original workings given the fact that the adjustments made were not substantial.
NH
Again, we would also add that the addition of a 2.5% anti-cyclical buffer on top of the conservation buffer and minimum Core Tier 1 ratio of 5% (bringing the total Core Tier 1 ratio to 10.0%) makes this a particular onerous hurdle for banks. Only the Nordic banks (DNB NOR, Handelsbanken and Nordea), and perhaps Standard Chartered, stand any chance of meeting it.

v) The conservation buffer will be staggered between 2014 and 2018, so there is some leeway here for the banks at risk to retain more earnings to improve capital ratios further. There is no comment on when the anti-cyclical buffer will be implemented.

vi) There is confirmation that the proposals will come into force in 2013 (i.e. no change in time table).

NH
We need to do a bit more work on this
JC
Death by a thousand capital ratio additions, then.
NH
because if it is right
NH
that does look a bit harsher than we were all expecting
NH
that comment was from Andrew Lim
NH
at Matrix
JC
It’s as if analysts have been counting up each individual bit of Basel
JC
But no one’s thought to add them altogether before now.
JC
Anyway – bored with banks
NH
me too
11:18AM
NH
The rally is over
NH
for now
NH
FTSE 100 off 50 points at 5,388
NH
and this WSJ report
NH
has certainly rattled the market
NH
for example
NH
PORTUGAL: Wires report Portuguese banks borrowing at the ECB rises to
fresh record €49.1bn in August.
- Previous thread below. We have to remember this also comes AFTER the so-
called “stress-tests”…which suggests liquidity conditions HAVEN’T
improved. I wouldn’t mind betting a jug of sangria that lending to Spanish
banks from the lender of last resort hasn’t eased in August either.
NH
and
NH
- Greece 10-yr spread widens to 939bps, widest level since May 7 {97 }
- REMINDER from yesterday: According to PIMCO’s Bosomworth, there is still a
substantial risk that Greece could default.
- Believes Greece is insolvent and could face problems if its borrowing costs
remain high.
- Says in the most optimistic scenario, Greece’s debt would rise to more than
140% of GDP.
NH
oh
NH
and this
NH
Seperately, outflow troubles continue for Greece. The central bank has just
reported that in July household and business deposits declined from €216.5
billion to €212.3 billion: so much for the ECB’s presence inspiring
confidence. So €4 billion a month in deposits taken out, and applying a
fractional reserve multiplier, means Greek banks lost another €40 billion in
monetary supply in July alone. Deflation + Austerity = tick, tick, tick….
- GREECE 5Y CDS quoted 860-890 +10bp wider this morning:
JC
The PIGS are coming back to the market then
JC
Some widening spreads from earlier as well
JC
RTRS-IRISH/GERMAN 10-YR GOVT BOND YIELD SPREAD HITS EURO LIFETIME HIGH OF 374 BPS, 21 BPS WIDER ON DAY

RTRS-PORTUGUESE/GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SPREAD HITS 353 BPS, WIDEST SINCE MAY 10, 17 BPS WIDER ON DAY

NH
hmm
NH
thanks for that
JC
In short – the two-tiered euro market is here to stay
NH
well
JC
Not that we didn’t predict it weeks ago, mind.
NH
you say that
NH
but look at this
NH
GERMAN JULY MANUFACTURING ORDERS -2.2 PCT M/M vs +0.5% consensus!
JC
Ah, that’s interesting
JC
Not even die Deutschen are safe
NH
another fecking eco indicator to look at
NH
shall we move on
JC
Yep
11:23AM
JC
Now the ROTR are asking about ISYS
NH
ah yes
NH
bid rumours
Invensys PLC (ISYS:LSE): Last: 260.40, up 9.8 (+3.91%), High: 265.70, Low: 252.00, Volume: 5.56m
NH
and this is all getting somewhat predicable
NH
the idea is it could be a takeover target for ABB
NH
because ABB has a) lots of cash
NH
b) wants to expand
NH
c) recently lost out in the battle for Chloride
NH
so 2 + 2 = bid for Invensys
NH
or Aggreko
NH
or anything else industrial
JC
..and every broker in the City has tipped ABB for, ooh, just about everything at some point, it seems
NH
indeed
NH
doesn’t it mean it won’t happen
NH
and today’s spike
NH
is somewhat lucky
NH
in as much as a lot of people were short of Invensys
NH
betting it would go out of the FTSE 100 at tonight’s review
NH
but it looks increasingly as if the share price move today
NH
might have saved it
JC
(TFT1 – good point to remember, thanks)
JC
Lucky indeed
JC
And Weir Group is still going in, right?
NH
I need to find my PDF
NH
hang on
JC
Can’t remember who else is getting shifted around
NH
got it
NH
Invensys could not be bigger than Segro
NH
so it might be safe
NH
looks as if Resolution, Tomkins and Weir go in
NH
Home Retail
NH
and Cable & Wireless Worldwide
NH
out
NH
and note
NH
CW&W was also the subject of a bid rumour recently
JC
Coincidence, no doubt
NH
of course
11:29AM
NH
ROTR asking about Connaught
NH
and who gets burned
NH
I think most institutional shareholders were wise enough to get out
NH
that just leaves the moppets
NH
who have been well and truly stuffed again
JC
Richard Breeden? Did he bail out?
NH
yep
NH
he bailed
NH
with some dignity left
JC
Poor old CNT, in any case
JC
Interesting that this was a Pesto exclusive
NH
(Soundbuy I was sent some Moppets via Ocado last week.Thick and super absorbent)
NH
it was
NH
Connaught, the property services group that specialises in social housing, is on the brink of going into administration, according to bankers close to the company.

An announcement is expected tomorrow, I have learned.

Connaught, which employs 10,000 people, has £220m of debt, provided by half a dozen banks and a quartet of other creditors.

The lead bank is Royal Bank of Scotland, which recently provided Connaught with a further £15m in an attempt to keep the group going.

Connaught ran into serious difficulties over the past couple of months, after it emerged that a series of contracts would be lossmaking.

The management, under a new chairman, Sir Roy Gardner, the chairmen of Compass, the catering giant, has tried to put together a rescue plan.

However its bank creditors have decided instead to put the business in administration, under UK insolvency procedures.

In spite of the severity of the economic crisis that engulfed the UK in 2008, few listed businesses have collapsed. In that sense, Connaught, a FTSE 250 company which at one stage had a market value of well over £500m, is unusual.

NH
Sir Roy Gardner
NH
dear oh dear
NH
he really should have done some more DD
NH
before taking this on as a Noddy
JC
Not a lot of love for Pesto from the rabble, I note
JC
Not a lot of love from Kleinmanwire either, incidentally
NH
I saw that
NH
Twitter fight
JC
This popped up on my Twitter feed this morning
NH
oh dear
NH
play nicely boys
JC
Probably in response to this
JC
Dear oh dear
JC
Only the PR feeders win in a fight like that
NH
just back to CNT for a moment
Connaught Plc (CNT:LSE): Last: 16.65, no change, Volume: 0.00
NH
the share register shows
NH
that Scottish Widows were the biggst Moppet
NH
with a 5.1% holding
NH
also being thick and super absorbent of losses was Capital
NH
they had almost 5%
NH
F&C also taking some pain with 4%
NH
Now, I can’t think of a good reason why
NH
they didn’t bail out
NH
unless they couldn’t find buyers
JC
At this rate, I might have to mock up another tombstone pic
JC
A lot of burnt fingers there
11:37AM
NH
back to the FTSE review for a moment
NH
I have an updated results
NH
(Pakora – the ever excellent Tim Steer)
NH
so four companies looking like the are out
NH
Segro
SEGRO Plc (SGRO:LSE): Last: 270.10, down 4.9 (-1.78%), High: 274.80, Low: 268.10, Volume: 996.18k
Invensys PLC (ISYS:LSE): Last: 260.70, up 10.1 (+4.03%), High: 265.70, Low: 252.00, Volume: 5.72m
Cable & Wireless Worldwide PLC (CW.:LSE): Last: 70.80, down 1.95 (-2.68%), High: 73.80, Low: 70.50, Volume: 6.04m
Home Retail Group plc (HOME:LSE): Last: 222.50, down 4.6 (-2.03%), High: 226.80, Low: 221.80, Volume: 1.33m
NH
and in come
Resolution Ltd (RSL:LSE): Last: 253.00, down 0.3 (-0.12%), High: 254.00, Low: 252.00, Volume: 790.28k
Tomkins PLC (TOMK:LSE): Last: 323.50, up 0.2 (+0.06%), High: 323.90, Low: 322.10, Volume: 1.77m
Weir Group PLC (WEIR:LSE): Last: 1,289, up 6 (+0.47%), High: 1,296, Low: 1,266, Volume: 155.40k
SSL International PLC (SSL:LSE): Last: 1,158, up 2 (+0.17%), High: 1,159, Low: 1,157, Volume: 888.83k
NH
Now
NH
SSL and Tomkins will soon come out
NH
when they are taken over
NH
so that means Informa
We don’t know what’s going on. The original source that detailed the Providence approach for Informa will not talk to us at present. If you own the shares and are worried that the bid will fail, sell the shares and stop worrying.
Informa PLC (INF:LSE): Last: 402.20, up 0.9 (+0.22%), High: 407.00, Low: 400.20, Volume: 724.70k
NH
and IMI:LSE
IMI PLC (IMI:LSE): Last: 744.00, up 2 (+0.27%), High: 747.00, Low: 735.00, Volume: 167.40k
NH
could be promoted later this month
JC
Thanks for that
11:39AM
NH
Jospeh
NH
anything you want to look at?
JC
Oh, I’ll just note a very smug public debt manager in passing.
NH
go on
JC
RTRS-DMO’S STHEEMAN – ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE THAT “VERY STRONG” OVERSEAS BUYING OF GILTS UP TO 10 YEARS
JC
RTRS-UK DMO’S STHEEMAN – LOW GILT YIELDS HAVE NOT PROVED A CHALLENGE TO DEMAND AT DMO AUCTIONS
NH
hmm.
NH
was there an auction this morning?
JC
I note a suggestion on the right for a UK anschluss with Ireland on bond issuance. Maybe not a crazy idea…
JC
Yep – long-range linker I think
NH
Where was Stheeman speaking?
JC
RTRS-UK DEMO GETS 2.04 TIMES COVER AT SALE OF 800 MLN STG 0.75 PCT INDEX-LINKED GILTS DUE 2047
NH
hang on
NH
the man has had a paid rise
NH
The U.K.’s Debt Management Office, charged with selling bonds to help finance the government’s record budget deficit, increased Chief Executive Officer Robert Stheeman’s compensation by about 10 percent.
Stheeman earned between 155,000 pounds ($241,000) and 160,000 pounds in fiscal 2010, up from a range of 140,000 pounds and 145,000 pounds a year earlier, the London-based debt
NH
Not quite in the Diamond Bob bracket
NH
but still
JC
..but showing that the UK’s Fiscal Crisis (TM) is all right for some.
JC
Anyway, I can see Bryce has made it to the office
NH
He hasn’t been beaten by the Crow
11:44AM
NH
Ok before we move on
NH
and look at De La Rue
NH
which all looks incredibly messy now
JC
Ah yes. It’s all gone a bit James Bond.
NH
I little bit of Albert Edwards
NH
for your delictation
NH
Market still deluding itself that it can escape the inevitable dénouement
NH
The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads
into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in
August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global
economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market
is in a similar deluded state of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now
locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious.
NH
nice line that
NH
Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now
locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious.
JC
This is Albert’s moment, still
JC
Any more gems?
NH
there is
NH
Albert lays into stock marke investors for being, well
NH
dumb
NH
The notion that the equity market predicts anything has always struck me as ludicrous. In
the 25 years I have been following the markets it seems clear to me that the equity market
reacts to events rather than pre-empting them. We know from the Japanese Ice Age and
indeed from the US 1930’s experience, that in a post-bubble world the equity market merely
follows the economic cycle. So to steal a march on the market, one should follow the
leading indicators closely. These are variously pointing either to a hard landing or, at best, a
decisive slowdown. In my view we are poised to slide back into another global recession:
the data is slowing sharply but, just like Japan in its Ice Age, most still touchingly believe we
are soft-landing. But before driving off a cliff to a hard (crash?) landing we might feel
reassured when we pass a sign that reads Soft Landing and we can kid ourselves all is well
NH
read an interesting article recently noting the equity market typically does not begin to
slump until just AFTER analysts begin to cut their 12m forward EPS estimates (for the life of
me I can’t remember where I read this, otherwise I would reference it). We have not quite
reached this point. But with margins so high, any cyclical slowdown will crush productivity
growth. Already in Q2, US productivity growth fell 1.8% – the steepest fall since Q3 2006.
Hence, inevitably, unit labour costs have begun to rise QoQ. This trend will be exacerbated
by recent more buoyant average hourly earnings seen in the last employment report. Whole
economy profits are set for a 2007-like squeeze. And a sharp slide in analysts’ optimism
confirms we are right on the cusp of falling forward earnings (see chart below
NH
anyway
NH
there’s more of that
NH
in Izy’s piece on the site
11:46AM
NH
Right
NH
De La Rue
NH
stock down
De La Rue Plc (DLAR:LSE): Last: 671.00, down 32.5 (-4.62%), High: 703.00, Low: 638.00, Volume: 3.73m
NH
company talking of a £35m hit
JC
That’s not all. Weird statement, this.
JC
The Board continues to carry out its investigations of the irregularities, assisted by its external legal advisers. However, it has now been established that some of the Company’s employees have deliberately falsified certain paper specification test certificates for a limited number of customers. Banknote paper specifications have a large number of detailed parameters and the investigation has found in certain cases that a small number of them have fallen marginally short of specification.

The Board stopped shipment of any affected banknote paper as soon as it became aware of the irregularities. All production is now within specification and the Company is ready, subject to customer agreement, to resume supply of fully compliant paper. The Company remains confident that neither the physical security nor the security features in the paper have been compromised.

JC
Employees in the frame
NH
some of the Company’s employees have deliberately falsified certain paper specification test certificates for a limited number of customers.
JC
And this, too
NH
why would they doo that?
JC
RTRS-DE LA RUE HAS REPORTED FINDINGS OF PAPER PRODUCTION IRREGULARITIES TO SERIOUS FRAUD OFFICE – SFO
NH
hmm.
NH
not good
JC
Dunno, but the SFO are going to find out
NH
and how does this all add up to £35m
NH
that’s around one third of this year’s forecast profits?
NH
there must be a whole lot more to this
NH
(Root – yellow. one more and you are off. We have followed Edwards since Alpha’s birth)
JC
Well, Izzi has been going through their patents
JC
Interesting stuff on the currency side – laser marking, covert security etc
NH
but how does
JC
So I’d guess you would have to fiddle with the paper, before it gets to currency
NH
but how does
NH
a small number of notes falling marginally short of specification.
NH
equal a £35m hit?
NH
have customers given up on them?
NH
or is there more to come out
NH
a bit like the Rooney saga
JC
Oh dear. It’s about as dignified.
JC
The Company has reported its findings to the relevant law enforcement agencies. Quantification of the financial impact on the group for the full year and subsequent years is not possible at this stage pending the outcome of discussions with customers and the relevant law enforcement bodies.
JC
Story not over, in short.
NH
(http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3127640/More-Wayne-Rooney-romps-feared.html)
NH
oh dear
NH
it gets worse
NH
but as Pakora says
NH
this does suggest
NH
that there might have been a little unofficial QE going on at this plant
NH
where is it?
JC
Wrong end of Hampshire, I think
NH
is there a right end?
NH
anyway, somre on this ECB rumour
11:55AM
NH
Hearing UNCONFIRMED market chatter the ECB is in the market buying peripheral
bonds again.
- Peripheral spreads have continued to widen with Ireland/German 10Y premium at
record levels and nearing 400bps
- Ireland/German 10Y spread currently over 390 bps and wider by almost 40bps in
the session
- Greece’s 10Y spread widens to 939bps, widest level since May 7
NH
that was from a broker
JC
Speaking of central banks, and going back to DLAR
NH
go on
JC
Isn’t there some sort of Indian contract under threat
NH
I think so
JC
Who knows where that’s going now
JC
Telegraph had a bit on it a month ago
NH
thanks for that
11:57AM
NH
Right
NH
we can’t ignore the elephant in the room for much longer
JC
Ocado.
NH
yep
JC
What is there to say
NH
first trading statement as a listed company
NH
and well
NH
it’s rather disappointing
NH
I was expecting some fight
JC
Literally, what is there to say – nothing on profits etc
NH
some strong numbers
NH
so bragging
NH
but no
NH
just a few numbers
NH
and a bit of waffle like this
NH
In this period, Ocado entered the next phase of its development, becoming a public company, and we welcome our new shareholders. I would also like to thank our customers, our staff and our partners at Waitrose for their continued support. Given increased customer demand and our need to increase capacity it was an appropriate time for the company to raise capital for growth. We now have the funds required to finish the build out of CFC1 and to build CFC2.”
NH
and this
NH
ndrew Bracey, Chief Financial Officer of Ocado, said:

“Operationally this was another strong quarter for Ocado, with gross sales increasing by 29.5%. As a consequence both sales and EBITDA growth continued the trend observed in the first half of the year, with gross margins remaining stable.”

JC
‘we welcome the hedge funds who propped us up’
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
the point with this statement
NH
is that the growth rate has changed
NH
it was around 30 per cent year on year
NH
and remains there
NH
average basket size is holding up
JC
What happened to the guy who took out a second mortgage on this, by the way?
NH
but there’s nothing in the statement to support the crazy valuation of this company
NH
nothing
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO:LSE): Last: 149.50, down 7.5 (-4.78%), High: 155.25, Low: 148.00, Volume: 1.21m
JC
That’s one costly second mortgage.
NH
you mean Ocadofan
NH
or Ocadoemployee
NH
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:OCDO.L&display=discussion&id=6807487&action=detail
NH
here’s a little refresher on his short sqeeze call
NH
Could it be that this handful of fund managers, traders and investors know of each other? Well, they should, since all of the above is public knowledge. Could they know each other? Might they even talk? Would they, really?

If you think not, as a short investor you may sleep well at night. If you think they might, we could be in for a short squeeze.

NH
hose who have never experienced a short squeeze could do well to consider what happened two years ago when Porsche and the State of Lower Saxony combined had shares and options in Volkswagen totalling over 100% of the stock. And the State was prohibited by law from selling. That was the year Porsche’s profits exceeded its sales, paid for by some clever hedge funds selling short. Porsche later got caught in the credit crunch, but that is another story.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VOW.DE&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

If you are short in Ocado, you might consider covering. If you are short with lots of other people’s money, you may soon have to consider an alternative career. Personally, I have taken out an extra mortgage and have gone rather long in Ocado. Wonder why?

NH
Now
NH
it’s not quite worked out like Porsche
JC
Er yes, we do wonder why
NH
and let’s hope the Ocadofan’s home isn’t reposessed
JC
As a side note on Ocado
JC
It’s worth noting Morrisons results coming up
NH
from the new man Mr Dalton
JC
And they’re planning online retail stuff
NH
are they
JC
Quick Evo note on this
JC
Continued outperformance should see robust 1H10/11 results. We still
expect Morrisons to outperform its peers. We forecast first half ex-VAT sales of
£8.1bn (+9.0%) helped by LFL growth (ex-petrol) of +1.0%, new space growth of
+4.5% and a petrol effect of +3.5%. We expect c20bps of EBIT margin expansion
to 5.35% and EBIT of £438m (+14.0%). Underlying PBT should be up 12% to
£415m. Finally, we forecast an interim dividend of 1.19p (+8.4%).

CEO Dalton Phillips will address the market for the first time. The basic
message will be “more of the same” as the strategy is working – so the focus will remain correctly on growing LFL sales, raising the operating margin and opening more stores in the South-East. There is unlikely to be any major strategic revelations, but news of an on-line “Click and Collect” trial is widely anticipated. Beyond this we expect nothing on format development or diversification – yet.

NH
excellent
NH
thanks for that
JC
325p price target. Well, Ocado can dream.
NH
and a bit of comment on Webvan
NH
from Clive Black
NH
of Shore Capital
NH
now he is one of those analysts who doesn’t get it
NH
and you can see why
NH
Online food retailer, or is that Waitrose distributor, Ocado needs little introduction to the market after its high profile and far from successful flotation; the 157p current share price sits c33% below the 235p mid-price that Ocado aspired to originally and is 13% under its issue price (180p). We expected to learn relatively little from the maiden update from the company, indeed we felt that Ocado may have reported a boost to its general profile as a result of the publicity gained through the flotation process. As it happens we have indeed learnt relatively little albeit appears that the flotation exercise did not boost sales; or put another way, if it did then the underlying performance is weaker, we’ll never know. As to those sales, well the growth at a headline level is strong, with ‘gross sales’ up by 29.5% in the 12 weeks to the 8th August 2010, broadly in-line with the 29.8% reported for the 36 weeks to the same date (£372.2m).
NH
Within the data Ocado reveals that average order size is £113.59 (£114.73 in 2009) and average order per week is 92,834 (70,968 in 2009). Management also records that gross margins are stable, although we would not have expected otherwise, whilst the company also reveals in the CFO’s commentary that EBITDA growth in its effective Q3 ‘continued the trend observed in the first half of the year’ (H1 2009 EBITDA was £2.8m and H1 2010 EBITDA was £8.0m). Accordingly, we assume c£6m Q3 EBITDA, which means that Ocado needs to deliver c£12m of EBITDA in Q4 to achieve our £26m EBITDA forecast, which remains possible with the boost of the Christmas period and, possibly, positive operational gearing. We will watch with interest to see how consensus emerges for Ocado, it remains a stock where forecasting still requires an abnormal amount of finger in the air work (cash & cash equivalents were £206m with borrowings of c£120m and undrawn facilities of c£110m ahead of major capital investment).
NH
And at this point the information stops; no mention of operating profits, pre-tax profits, positive earnings and dividends; the key financial factors that differentiates Ocado from the majority of its retail investment peers. The lack of such figures is, of course, a manifestation of where Ocado is in its business development programme. However, given that the group has to engage in material capital investment to sustain its sales growth and has yet to demonstrate profitability on a considerable sales base, we continue to harbour reservations about the valuation of Ocado stock and so we believe that it remains overvalued. Accordingly, from an update where we harboured modest expectations on use value, we do not come way particularly more enlightened, encouraged or enthusiastic. SELL.

NH
Sorry Ocadofan
NH
we had to do it
12:06PM
NH
Okay
NH
it is past midday
NH
but there’s a couple more things to look at
NH
there’s been a big move in Euro-Libor overnight
NH
Overnight Euro Libor: 0.688% vs. prior 0.348%
NH
seems a big move
NH
We usually get moves like this during maintenance periods but even so this
magnitude would suggest that there is a shortage of liquidity out there
somewhere.
- This of course follows the announcement yesterday from the ECB that one sole
bank was allotted $60 million USD via its Fed-swap facilitated liquidity
providing operation. At a comparable operation last week, the ECB announced
that just one, almost certainly the same bank, had requested $40 million in
dollar-denominated funding from the ECB.
- Note there was also UNCONFIRMED chatter earlier about 2nd Tier EU bank
getting emergency funding from ECB.
NH
gawd
NH
I missed that
NH
about a second tier bank getting funding
NH
someone seems to be in a pickle
NH
one of the Irish banks with a big refinancing looming?
NH
or something on the European mainland
JC
Hard to tell, for now, but something to look into
JC
LE, really? Who in Germany?
NH
hang on
NH
I have the answer
NH
this just landed from a broker
NH
Frankfurter Allgemeine has the story that Germany’s banks warn that the passing of Basle 3 would force them to raise over €100bn in new capital. The most important rule is the new leverage ratio, which limits the amount of credit to 33 times the bank’s core capital. At present German banks are financed by strange hybrid types of capital, which are technically counted as equity for the purpose of regulation, but which are, in reality, more like bonds. The German banking association said if the banks failed to raise the €36bn, they would have to cut lending by €1000bn, which would effectively constitute a credit crunch, and would force a recession. The banking association wants the new rules to be implemented not within six to eight years, as proposed by the Basle committee, but in 10 to 12 years. This is the reason the German government still expresses reservations about the Basle III agreement, which is now universally accepted by all the other members of the committee.
JC
Heh – unintended consequences surely, if so
JC
German banks squeal about Basel in last-ditch move to get rules changed
JC
And market comes in to punish them
NH
interesting
NH
we need to do some more on this today
12:11PM
NH
Just back to the equity market for a moment
NH
a few bits to look at
Xchanging plc (XCH:LSE): Last: 129.30, down 6.5 (-4.79%), High: 135.50, Low: 127.90, Volume: 248.14k
JC
Why’s Xchanging under pressure?
NH
HSBC note
NH
pretty bearish
NH
target price cut to 105p
NH
talking about some stuff
NH
I last heard in connection with Isoft
NH
off-balance sheet
liabilities (letter of credit of GBP18m to Allianz
NH
receivables running late. Weak
operational performance, which usually increases incentives for potential ‘earnings
management’, may be the main reasons for such close scrutiny of XCH’s accounts by
investors
NH
anyway
NH
HSBC says the company has plausible explanations for all that
NH
but
NH
is still a seller
NH
Profit growth may disappoint: Contract win momentum has improved recently. However,
the value of these deals is small. These factors suggest weaker revenue growth in the medium
term. We also remain concerned about margin expansion. At the interims, the company
indicated that staff attrition rates were increasing, which is negative for a service company’s
margins as hiring and training costs increase. We estimate that hiring costs should have helped
margins by 100bp during the past two years. This cost will return as the employee churn
returns. Our EBIT is 10-11% below consensus estimates for FY2011-12.
NH
Valuation: We believe it is more difficult to quantify cash conversion in multiple-based
valuation approaches. Hence, we now adopt APV to value Xchanging from using the
2011e PE multiple previously. We value Xchanging at 105p (from a previous target price
of 210p) and downgrade to Underweight (V) from Neutral (V).
JC
What is it with outsourcers and this sort of stuff
JC
Is there any more on this letters of credit thing?
JC
Looks interesting
NH
it does
NH
can’t find any more on the letters of credit
NH
but there’s some stuff on cash conversion
NH
We remain concerned regarding Xchanging’s cash conversion. Factors that limit XCH’s cash conversion
include (1) future decline in deferred income, (2) provisions and restructuring, and (3) capitalisation of
costs. Management tends to focus on pre-exceptional cash conversion from pre-exceptional operating
profit, which appears to be good. However, at times of heighted worries regarding accounting, investors
are less likely to use such “before bad-stuff” measures (see table on page 6). We choose to focus on cash
conversion from EBITDA. We estimate that the cash conversion from EBITDA will remain depressed
during 2010-12e. The main reasons are
NH
Working capital: Trade receivables are stable at 20-22% of sales. The quality of these receivables is
worrying to us. Although we are not modelling increased impairments as a percentage of gross
receivables, receivables overdue remain high. This suggests that an improvement in provisions for
impairment of gross trade receivables will be gradual.
NH
Deferred income should depress cash conversion, as explained on page 3. We model the deferred
income as a percentage of sales returning to (4 year average from FY2005-08) 12% in 2012 from 16%
in 2009.
NH
Accrued income trend also suggests more working capital: Accrued income and prepayments
as a proportion of sales are increasing i.e. the company paying quicker to its suppliers. In
addition, their trade receivable overdue more than a month has increased. So they are paying
quicker to their suppliers, but receiving payments later from their customers. In the conference
call on 25 August, management suggested that the late payments on trade receivables are ‘within
limits’, without quantifying them. We would probably have worried less if the provisions for
impairment were improving as a proportion of gross receivables.
12:14PM
NH
Okay
NH
I have a lunch at Gow’s at 12.30pm
NH
so I need to leave soon
NH
before I do
NH
let’s whip through a few things
British Airways PLC (BAY:LSE): Last: 224.10, up 3.3 (+1.49%), High: 227.00, Low: 218.70, Volume: 3.27m
NH
up on a UBS note
NH
Company continues to trade well. Some short term catalysts
BA has continued to trade well post year end results. Indeed calandarised second quarter (BA’s Q1) showed the strongest yield delivery (up 13.5%) of any of the major European carriers. We expect that the strong yield recovery will continue until the end of the year and that material upside risk exists to consensus forecasts (UBS over 25% higher on EPS). Further ATI and the merger offer benefits.

Market currently pricing in limited benefit for ATI and merger synergies
The International Airline Group has stated it will achieve €400m of synergies (€250m of cost and €150m of revenue) by year five. Based on stated merger synergies (€400m) and a conservative 1% of BA’s revenues for ATI synergies (c£88m) this provides a £1.71 per BA share future value uplift.

NH
It seems clear that the market is not yet factoring the potential value of these synergies
into the current share price. Pro-forma numbers suggest c12% uplift to 2013e EPS
Following Iberia’s Q2 results we have redone our pro-forma EPS forecasts. We expect that 2013e BA EPS will be c12% higher than on a stand alone basis. This factors in what we believe is conservative estimates of ATI and merger synergies. Upgrading BA PT from £2.95 to £3.35 (Iberia from €3.35 to €4)

We continue to value BA and Iberia on mid cycle Top co 2013e EV/Ebitdar of 6.5x. Given that we factor in ATI synergies and an improved outlook our price target moves from £2.95 to £3.35. We continue to rate the shares a Buy and see the near term catalyst Q2 results and the Iberia board shortly making a final decision on the merger.

12:15PM
NH
AB Foods
NH
being pushed by Citi
NH
they reckon Primark could take over the world
Associated British Foods PLC (ABF:LSE): Last: 1,072, up 4 (+0.37%), High: 1,073, Low: 1,063, Volume: 379.01k
NH
Great performance YTD, but more to go — AB Foods is the second best-performing stock in consumer staples YTD, but we see further upside. We believe the Primark story is only at the beginning, while Grocery margins improve and Sugar sees
stability.

Detailed look at Primark — In this report, we examine Primark in detail and
benchmark it off its retail peers. We see significant growth opportunities in
continental Europe, where Primark could more than treble its overall space if it
were to expand in existing markets.

Primark’s margins could increase — We believe Primark has intentionally kept its
margins low by reinvesting all operational leverage back into the business. The fact
that margins in Spain are already double digit despite only having 17 stores
demonstrates that payback periods are short. Further growth should allow
operational leverage to come through.

NH
Potential EPS upside of 17% — We analyse various scenarios, but if Primark
continues to grow LFL sales at the current rate of 7% and increases its store
openings to 25 stores per annum, we estimate there would be 10% upside to our
FY 15 estimates. If the Grocery business reaches 10% operating margin by then,
we see a further 7% upside.
 Raising estimates, increasing price target to £12.00 — We raise our FY 11 and
FY 12 estimates by 2.5% and 3.5% respectively to reflect higher grocery margins.
Our DCF-derived price target moves to £12.00.

NH
and that’s it from me
NH
Joseph
NH
anything more from you?
JC
Not at all really, unless anyone has a morbid fascination with Greene King
NH
I don’t
NH
not a fan of IPA
JC
Me neither
JC
On that German manufacturing fail btw, something from Barcap
NH
Right
NH
let’s end this
NH
thanks for logging on
NH
and thanks Joseph
NH
for filling in at short notice
NH
until tomorrow readers
NH
bye
JC
No probs. Blame Bob Crow.
JC
Bye
NH
Yeah
NH
thanks Bob
NH
still at least it’s raining
NH
usually the Tube strikes happen on a brilliantly hot summers day
NH
so that’s one small victory
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
bye
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