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Markets Live transcript 6 Sep 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:23 on 6 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
Good morning
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily whiz around the markets
NH
although today it’s more a gentle stroll
NH
what with US markets closed and a lack of eco data to digest
NH
and no corpporate news to speak of
NH
anyway, Bryce is here
NH
although only just
NH
he’s logging in
NH
having taken a taxi to the office today
NH
which is odd
NH
I didn’t think the tube strike started until 5.00pm this evening
NH
anyway
NH
I have been scratching around like an old hen looking for news
NH
and it’s been tough
NH
but at least we have Wayne Rooney
NH
and
NH
for some reason that story made me think of this
NH
STOCKHOLM, Sept 6 (Reuters) – Swedish engineering group Alfa Laval on Monday offered to buy smaller domestic peer Munters for 5.03 billion crowns ($701.2 million) in cash to add climate control technology to its product range. Alfa Laval, a maker of fluid-handling equipment, pumps and heat-transfer products, said it was offering 68 crowns per Munters share, compared with the 52.5 crowns closing price on Friday.
NH
Munters shares opened 31.4 percent higher to stand just above the bid level at 69 crowns by 0703 GMT, while Alfa Laval shares rose 1.1 percent to 115.1 crowns, outperforming a 0.5 gain in the Stockholm bourse’s blue chip index.
“The acquisition of Munters will complement our selection of products,” Alfa Laval Chief Executive Lars Renstrom said.
“Munters is a company with strong positions that we can further develop through Alfa Laval’s industrial structure and strong presence in the fast-growing markets of South America, Eastern Europe and, not the least, Asia.”
NH
I can’t think why
NH
but it did
NH
incidentally that is the big corporate story in Europe today
NH
a Euro700m bid
NH
for something with a funny name
NH
still
NH
there is lots more RAW to look at
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
although none really have any substance
NH
Bryce
NH
are you logged in yet
NH
nearly there
NH
nope
NH
hang on
BE
Right!
BE
In. Hello!
NH
the Tube strike doesn’t start till tonight
NH
you know
NH
there was no need to take a taxi
BE
Yes yes yes yes. I know.
BE
It’s a mistake I make about once a year.
BE
“I’m runing five minutes late – will just jump in a taxi.”
BE
Then sit for an hour looking up the exhaust of a white van.
BE
Listening to Talksport discuss the ins and outs of hiring prostitutes.
BE
No pun intended.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
right
NH
shall we get to the wider market
NH
and then a bit of RAW
BE
Certainly.
11:10AM
NH
so the rally continues
NH
admitedely on thin volumes
NH
but it continues
NH
a further 22 points to 5,450
BE
Yup
BE
a three month high, I think.
BE
Another squeeze up on thin volumes, as you say.
NH
highest volume stock is Lloyds
NH
with a pitiful 22m
BE
And the market being led higher by C&W Worldwide.
NH
sigh
NH
another day, another C&WW bid rumour
Cable & Wireless Worldwide PLC (CW.:LSE): Last: 76.00, up 3.05 (+4.18%), High: 78.50, Low: 74.65, Volume: 8.93m
BE
So. SingTel this time.
NH
according to the Sindy
NH
Cable and Wireless Worldwide in SingTel’s sights
Singapore Telecoms, the sovereign wealth-backed mobile phone-to-pay TV giant, is considering a bid for FTSE 100 group Cable & Wireless Worldwide.
Cable & Wireless shares spiked last week following rumours that US rival AT&T was putting together a takeover plan. Some analysts have dismissed the speculation surrounding AT&T’s interest, but SingTel has contacted bankers in Asia and Europe to discuss its own ideas for the Bracknell-based company.
NH
A leading corporate adviser said that SingTel was in the early stages of its plans, but that a takeover attempt was a possibility. “SingTel is running the slide rule over Cable & Wireless,” said the source. “It’s less than 10 per cent of the way through the process but has contacted investment banks in Hong Kong, Singapore, and London.”
BE
They’re less than ten percent towards a bid.
BE
What does that mean exactly?
NH
dunno
NH
but people close to Singtel tell us
NH
this one is a non starter
NH
buy hey there will be someone out there that does want to bid for CW&W
NH
we will get there in the end
BE
There’s bound to be someone. Though the Singapore idea did seem curious.
BE
No cost savings that I can think of. No particular synergy beyond the international carrier bit.
NH
so getting exposure to the fantastic UK growth market ahead of the Comprehensive Spending review didn’t appeal then?
BE
As I say. If they get the process up to 11% they’ll probably realise it’s not going to fly.
BE
Still, shares are up again.
NH
indeed
11:16AM
NH
Ok so this morning’s other rumours are
NH
Tullow
Weather Lottery Plc (TWL:LSE): Last: 1.00, no change, High: 1.00, Low: 1.00, Volume: 0.00
NH
hang on
NH
why has that come up
Tullow Oil PLC (TLW:LSE): Last: 1,166, up 10 (+0.87%), High: 1,171, Low: 1,158, Volume: 1.27m
NH
OK
NH
that’s right
NH
apparently someone looking there
NH
although I reckon it is people buying following the recent pull back
BE
There’s also a Goldman note on the oilers this morning, isn’t there?
NH
yep
NH
pushing Tullow along with Heritage
NH
and seemingly every other E&P stock
BE
Give us a look then.
NH
here you go
NH
Recent E&P performance has been strong vs. the oil price
E&P stocks in our coverage have outperformed the long-dated oil price by 26% since mid-May. While our
updated price targets (which incorporate a blend of valuations using our peak 2011 oil price assumption and
valuations at the forward curve) imply 32% upside potential, valuations using the forward curve imply only
21% upside. As a result, we downgrade our coverage view to Neutral from Attractive. Although we remain
bullish on the oil price, we would prefer to play this view on the commodity through the Integrated and the
Services sub-sectors.
NH
High levels of exploration activity look set to continue
We expect to see a high level of drilling activity in the next six months with wells from Cairn Energy
(Greenland), Tullow (Mauritania, South America and West Africa), Dana (Mauritania and Faroes), Soco
(Vietnam and DRC), Salamander (Indonesia), Lundin (Norway), Premier (UK and Indonesia) and the results
of Heritage’s well in Kurdistan. As the sector is trading at a premium to its core assets valued at the forward
curve, however, we believe that share prices are now more fairly reflecting this activity.
Heritage up to Buy; Premier, Salamander, Soco and Tullow remain Buy
We upgrade Heritage to Buy from Neutral as we believe that following its recent underperformance, the stock
offers a more compelling balance of risk/reward given its exposure to Kurdistan and potentially material
drilling catalysts in 2011. We remain positive on Premier, Salamander, Soco and Tullow, believing they offer
attractive combinations of value and potential exploration upside.
NH
Changes to our estimates and price targets
We adjust our target prices for recent news flow, the latest forward curve and to include value for the 1H11
drilling programme. We now see c. 21% upside to our valuations at the forward curve including value for
exploration catalysts and 5% downside with exploration value excluded.
NH
(greenback this service isn’t designed so you can go and tell you paying readers things)
NH
actually
NH
quite a few notes out on Hertiage this morning
NH
as an aside
NH
Oriel
NH
and Matrix
NH
a concerted push today
NH

Oriel Securities – “Given the upside potential offered in Jurassic and Triassic in the Miran licence (Kurdistan), which we estimate could be worth over 400p/sh we upgrade to a BUY recommendation (from Hold), and await an update on Miran West 2 in late September/October.”

NH
hang on
NH
will get the others
NH
we have a new notes system
NH
and it is taking some getting used to
NH
found it
NH

We think that the market is heavily discounting the Miran West discovery in Kurdistan and is attributing very little value to its broader exploration portfolio. In our view, this is unjustified given the company’s successful track record, its strong balance sheet and our positive view of Kurdistan. We expect Heritage to get a greater recognition as operational activity ramps up. We maintain our BUY rating with a 490p target price.

NH
Kurdistan
NH
you have to love it
NH
a pure Kurdish play
NH
with plenty of cash
BE
Super. Shall be push on.
11:23AM
BE
So. What now?
NH
I was just looking at Barclays
NH
stock down a bit
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 323.25, down 1.75 (-0.54%), High: 329.40, Low: 320.85, Volume: 10.70m
NH
there is a bearish note out from Evo
NH
which we can look at
NH
but I thought
NH
the read across from Macquarie
NH
was very bad for BarCap
BE
For those who missed it, Macquarie blames weak global markets for a profit warning overnight.
BE
Currencies and comms trading both struggling.
NH

MACQUARIE Group confirmed the lingering ramifications of the financial crisis when it slashed its profit outlook by 25 per cent.
Investment bank Macquarie Group will reveal in an investor’s presentation in London today that volatile financial market trading conditions had hurt the bank’s overall earnings by more than had been expected.
The downgrade to its first-half profit outlook comes one month after chief executive Nicholas Moore revealed at Macquarie’s annual meeting that the ongoing volatility was likely to affect the bank’s profit, The Australian reported.
However, he said at the time that it was not a profit warning, but a “statement of fact” that trading conditions were tough.
NH
Now that confirms
NH
what you hear from brokers
NH
that things are very very slow
NH
pretty big downgrade
NH
and they have, like many others including Barclays
NH
been staffing up
NH
betting on a rebound
BE
True. Hired half of KBW, if I remember correctly.
BE
So anyway, here’s this Evo sell note.
BE
In our view, by 2012 76% of Barclays’ equity will be allocated to CIB – a business for which we forecast a 12% sust. RoE, barely above its CoE. Our Group RoE 2012E is even lower, at 9.5%, after Head Office losses and minorities. Against this backdrop, we think that Barclays’ tNAV should be seen as a ceiling, and not a floor, for its stock. We once again cut our EPS (by 8% – we are now 28% below consensus 2011E) and our Target (by 12%, to 298p). We reiterate BARC as a Core SELL.
BE
Hm. Acronym-tastic that.
NH
gawd
NH
that’s not exactly going to grab the readers attention is it?
BE
Here’s a bit more for those fluent.
BE
By 2012 76% of Barclays’ equity should be in CIB – a business for which we
forecast a 12% sustainable RoE, barely above its CoE. Within CIB, we expect a
12.5% sust. RoE for BarCap (20% higher than the average European IB).
BE
Single digit Group sustainable RoE. Retail and ABSA are much more profitable
but small, and Head Office losses and minorities deduct a hefty £1.8bn from the
bottom line. All in, we forecast a paltry 9.5% Group sust. RoE 2012E.
BE
Barclays’ diversification far from having been a success, we think. Global
Retail and ABSA show 16% and 24% sust. RoEs but only use 24% of the Group
capital. Within Retail, we expect Spain and Italy, countries in which BARC has
been present for years, to contribute only 2% of Group profits by 2012.
BE
We cut our EPS by 8%; we now expect 2010 EPS to fall 5% YoY, although
EPS growth should return in 2011 and 2012: we forecast a decent (but far from
brilliant) 10% EPS CAGR 2009-12E. We are 28% below consensus for 2011,
mainly driven by revenues.
Price Target cut 12% to 298p, making BARC one of the few banks in our
coverage with downside. The downside is limited, at only 8%, but in stark
contrast with the 17% average upside in our universe of banks.
NH
Acronym Man
BE
Switch out of BARC into LLOY, RBS or STAN. We are very positive UK banks
and have three of them in our Core BUY list: LLOY (TP 117p), RBS (TP 73p) and
SAN (TP 2250p). LLOY offers 60% upside, and RBS 40%.
NH
(Loran tangible Net Asset values)
NH
does he talk in tickers too?
BE
Arturo De Frias Marques. Seriously. Stop writing in LOLTXT. You’re not fifteen.
NH
thanks for that
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 322.95, down 2.05 (-0.63%), High: 329.40, Low: 320.85, Volume: 10.89m
NH
not down that much
11:30AM
NH
Just back to RAW for the moment
NH
a couple more bits
NH
Rentokil
Rentokil Initial Plc (RTO:LSE): Last: 101.40, up 1.8 (+1.81%), High: 101.40, Low: 99.60, Volume: 2.63m
NH
story of a 140p a share break up bid going round
NH
private equity touted
NH
although
NH
there is a view
NH
that Rentokil could be a play on a global bedbug plague
NH
apparently they have the skills to deal with it
NH
and this epidemic could be big
BE
Isn’t it only in Manhattan?
NH
i think so
BE
Or, more specifically, Hollister stores.
NH
but all those people coming back to the UK
NH
could bring th bugs with them
BE
True. This is a major opportunity. Just like Glaxo was for pig flu.
BE
So any more colour to this bid/break up story?
NH
not really, I was just trying to find out at what leve the big incentive scheme at Renotkil kicks in
NH
I don’t think it is 140p
NH
much higher
NH
hang on
NH
I may be wrong
BE
And how much does Rentokil need to add to get into the FTSE tomorrow night?
BE
Not saying I’m suspicious of the timing ………. but …………..
BE
Right. Here’s the incentive plan.
BE
The 2008 Share Incentive Plan

The Rentokil Initial 2008 Share Incentive Plan (“the 2008 Plan”) approved by shareholders in 2008 was designed to facilitate the appointment in 2008 of John McAdam, chairman, Alan Brown, chief executive, and Andy Ransom, executive director, corporate development and to motivate them over a sufficient period to deliver a turnaround in corporate performance. The key features of the Plan are as follows:

BE
# an award to each of John McAdam, Alan Brown and Andy Ransom of 7.5 million shares, with vesting of the awards based on absolute share price performance targets;
# until a minimum share price of £1.20 has been met over a sustained period, no shares will be earned. At £1.20, 20% of the award would be earned, rising on a straight-line basis to full vesting at a share price of £1.80;
NH
Can’t find it
NH
our search function is rubbish
BE
True.
NH
Right
NH
and today’s other rumour
NH
well more Friday’s is this story about Premier Foods
Premier Foods Plc (PFD:LSE): Last: 19.42, down 1.43 (-6.86%), High: 20.25, Low: 18.50, Volume: 4.19m
NH
a bit of profit taking has kicked in
BE
Huge squeeze on Friday based on some quite flaky rumourtrage, it seemed to me.
BE
After rather a lot of waffling, the spivs eventually landed on the name of Campbell Soup as a possible predator.
BE
Though, frankly, Premier’s debt makes this quite unlikely.
NH
agreed
11:38AM
NH
Right, a little something for the knife catchers
BP Plc (BP.:LSE): Last: 406.61, up 4.91 (+1.22%), High: 409.75, Low: 404.00, Volume: 10.52m
BE
What’s that?
NH
a note from Morgan Stanley
NH
you know we have been saying for some time
NH
BP’s reaction to the spill wasn’t enough
BE
What – sack the Brit with the funny accent and bring in a Yank?
NH
yep
NH
and make a few disposals
NH
well, Morgan Stanley agree more is needed
NH
much more
NH
and not just at BP
NH
it reckons the industry as a whole might have to shrink
NH
in order to get bigger
NH
We see 30-50% upside potential from a radical response to the changing Energy landscape – stocks that offer the greatest upside to this theme, in our view, are BP and longer-term, ENI. We outline a four-point plan that shows how it could be achieved. Oil 1.01: shrink-to-grow strategy –an accelerated portfolio rationalisation programme of mature and/or low return or non-core assets. Oil 1.02: raise exploration spend and increase growth capex. Oil 1.03: more aggressive M&A – ‘Big Oil’ should replenish its resource hopper, particularly with F&D costs in many cases higher than market EV/boe’s. Oil 1.04: cut the payout – we think the market would be prepared to forsake some income yield for growth – a 25% payout cut should free up c. $13bn to invest
NH
and here’s a bit more
NH
European Big Oil is at a crossroads: Its significant
inherent value remains ‘locked’ and the de-rating
continues. Our 1.01-1.04 plan shows a way to
unlock this value.
NH
A value trap for 10 years: The Supermajors’
underwhelming performance over the last decade
leaves many deeply sceptical. The Deepwater Horizon
incident in the US is a salient reminder that change is
constant and that Big Oil must adapt. A radical industry
response is needed to narrow the considerable c.30%
discount to fair value, in our view. We outline below a
four-point plan that shows how this could be achieved
NH
Oil 1.01: shrink-to-grow strategy. An accelerated
portfolio rationalisation program of mature and/or low
return or non-core assets. BP and ENI have the most
exposure to this theme, in our view.
Oil 1.02: raise exploration spend two- to threefold,
and increase growth capex.
Oil 1.03: more aggressive M&A. Big Oil should
replenish its resource hopper, particularly with F&D
costs in many cases higher than market EV/boe’s.
Oil 1.04: cut the payout. Big Oil gets little credit for its
premium yield. We think the market would be prepared
to forsake some income yield for growth – a 25% cut in
the payout should free up c. $13bn to invest in growth.
NH
What are the likely outcomes of Oil 1.01-1.04? An
attractive growth profile of c. 2.5% (up from 1.2%),
relatively small exposure to refining, a technology
biased E&P businesses with execution expertise and
substantially more powerful balance sheets. Increased
exploration spend and buying assets/corporates should
only enhance investor perception that the group can
reverse the substantial de-rating of the previous decade.
We see 30-50% upside from a radical response to
the changing Energy landscape. Stocks that offer the
greatest upside to this theme in our view are BP and
longer-term, ENI.
NH
Now
NH
what are the odds of BP doing something truly radical?
NH
not high I would guess
NH
anyway
NH
interesting note I thought
NH
although the ROTR
NH
seem more interested in tats
NH
than markets today
11:43AM
BE
And so what’s Glaxo doing?
NH
down a bit
NH
on these Avandia recall fears
NH
a big programme on the Beeb tonight
NH
claiming the diabtetes drug has caused something like a 1000 heart attacks
BE
Though I’m sure the argument is that Avandia is a known problem.
BE
In fact, Merrill has been arguing it’s all in the price.
NH
I see
NH
EU will decide whether the drug is safe on the 20-23rd September after a private meeting.
NH
I believe
NH
but Merrill aren’t bothered then?
NH
in the press, in the price?
BE
Indeed. Upgraded to buy this morning.
BE
Here’s the gist.
BE
Moving up the preference list on EM/pipeline upside
We upgrade GlaxoSmithKline from Neutral to Buy and raise our price objective to
1470p from 1350p. With our increasing focus on diversification and emerging
markets (EM) as central industry growth and value drivers and the hidden longterm
value in company pipelines, GSK has moved up our preference list of stocks.
We believe GSK’s leading diversification and EM strategy de-risks the business
and provides long-term growth opportunities not fully reflected in the share price.
We see 6-16% upside to our out year EPS forecasts if current low-teens EM
growth rates prove sustainable. Furthermore, our updated pipeline analysis
suggests hidden value with 29% upside to our 1701p DCF value and 41% to 2018
EPS estimates in a blue-sky scenario of 100% success rates.
BE
Stock de-risked, catalysts coming on 12-15 month view
In our view, provisions to cover Avandia and Paxil litigation taken with 2Q results
and a July FDA advisory committee that voted, on balance, to keep Avandia on
market has effectively drawn a line under Avandia litigation risk, leaving GSK as
our preferred low-risk play in the sector. We see 12m catalysts as Benlysta
approval (lupus $3bn peak sales) and three Tykerb studies in niche indications
that could remind investors of the larger $2bn sales opportunity from the ALLTO
study (adjuvant breast cancer) expected 2012. Material catalysts are also
appearing on the 12-15m horizon with PIII data expected in 2H11 for Syncria
(GLP-1 analogue, diabetes), Relovair (asthma/COPD) and Promacta (TRA) in
Hep C, which we estimate to have $4.7bn in peak sales potential between them.
BE
Valuation undemanding. PO raised to 1470p
We see GSK’s current valuation as undemanding with the stock trading at a 26%
discount to our 1701p DCF valuation and 14% discount to our target sector 2011
PE of 12x, putting the stock as a good proxy for sector re-rating in our view. The
increase in our price objective to 1470p from 1350p, reflects improving long-termoutlook and represents a total return of 22% (17% price, 5% dividend yield).
NH
(but Lemmy it was granted marketing approval by the EU not the UK, hence they can still sell)
NH
pharma is a bit like big oil
NH
going nowhere for years
NH
probably need to be broken up
NH
they are just to big to do anything with
NH
although GSK
NH
does seem to be pushing more and more in over the counter stuff
NH
and things like Lucozade
NH
perhaps it should buy something like SSL
NH
and get more in HPC
NH
anything else interesting in the note?
BE
Not much. Valuation argument, basically.
NH
OK
11:49AM
BE
So what else do we have?
NH
small cap corner
NH
what’s this thing
NH
Oilex?
NH
doubled today
NH
never heard of it
Oilex Ltd (OEX:LSE): Last: 17.13, up 9.13 (+114.06%), High: 20.25, Low: 9.13, Volume: 4.45m
BE
Um … let me get the website.
NH
hang on
NH
looks like a shale gas play in India
NH
the Cambay Field
BE
“Best in its class” is the driver behind Oilex’s business as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Our aim is to achieve consistently exceptional results in all of the parts of our business by:

* Acquiring, for a fair price, exploration and potential production assets that will provide the opportunity for rapid, sustained growth with an attractive balance of risk and reward;
* Attracting an experienced, productive and motivated team of people that will generate the maximum return on investment from those assets; and
* Creating and maintaining strong working relationships with the Indian companies that are participating in all of Oilex’s international joint ventures.

BE
Radical plan, that. Nearly meaningless in its radicality.
BE
So what’s the news today?
NH
significant find
NH
curiously based on what was found in a US field
NH
Cambay Field Reserves and Contingent Resources significantly upgraded

* Successful completion of detailed technical studies to unlock potential of
“tight” reservoirs using leading-edge North American “shale gas” industry
technology

* Studies indicate a very good correlation between the Cambay Eocene
reservoirs and the Eagle Ford and Haynesville “tight/shale” plays in the
USA

* Drilling and production tests through the first half of 2011

NH
The following summary of Reserves (net recoverable to Oilex’s 45% interest,
unaudited) is provided:

* P90 – 248 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas and 11 million barrels (MMbbls)
of condensate

* P50 – 384 BCF of gas and 17 MMbbls of condensate

* P10 – 591 BCF of gas and 27 MMbbls of condensate

BE
And what’s this thing worth?
NH
tiddler
NH
was worth £18m before today’s jump
NH
sticking with the small cap world
NH
this made me laugh
NH
a statement from Strategic Natural Resources
NH
so shares move
NH
they put this out
NH
The Board of SNR notes the rise in the Company’s share price this morning and also notes the article published by the Sunday Express on 05 September 2010. The article mentions the Company’s recently updated CPR and ongoing Export Feasibility Assessment Study currently being carried out by Golder Associates (announced on 21 July 2010), as well as the opportunity for the Company to supply coal to the export and South African power sector. The Board of SNR confirm that there is no information contained within the article that is not currently available in the public domain.
NH
and guess what
NH
shares have moved up even further
NH
WTF
Strategic Natural Resources Plc (SNRP:LSE): Last: 13.75, up 3.75 (+37.50%), High: 14.25, Low: 10.00, Volume: 1.11m
NH
bizzare or what
BE
And ….
BE
Talking of bizarre small-cappage.
BE
What of this Aqua Bounty thing?
NH
ah yes, Frankstein fish
NH
this could be one for muppet alpha
Aqua Bounty Technologies Inc (ABTX:LSE): Last: 19.96, up 4.21 (+26.73%), High: 21.00, Low: 16.75, Volume: 6.50k
NH
man made salmon
NH
it’s being plugged in lots of media outlets right now
NH
Emoticon
NH
have been very busy
NH
have a look at this
NH
The chart shows the share price of Aqua Bounty, a company whose stock is leaping upwards like a salmon heading for its spawning ground.

A fitting simile, because Aqua Bounty, headquartered in Massachusetts but listed in London, is making what is likely to be the first genetically modified animal approved for human consumption.

Its salmon will grow much faster than a normal one, thanks to the introduction of a gene that keeps growth hormones switched on at all time. Normal salmon take a break every now and then.

NH
On Friday, the firm passed another milestone when America’s Food and Drug Administration said meat from the modified fish was essentially the same as ordinary salmon. The next big test is a hearing at the end of the month.

Meanwhile, in Belgium they are working on the Enviropig — which has less polluting poo — and in America there are bovines that shrug off mad cow disease. Investors face two questions: how do they pick the winners, and how do they gauge public reaction? Protesters are already decrying the “Frankenfish”. Shareholders must work out if the likely FDA approval outbalances the risk that the public will say no to buying GM food.

NH
oh yes
NH
I forgot about the Enviropig
NH
less polluting poo
NH
the things you can find on Aim
BE
Don’t be so cynical. This could be HUGE.
NH
I’m not eating it
BE
That’s your choice. But think of CHINA! They eat ANYTHING over there.
NH
just bringing up the chart on this one
BE
{/Morrissey]
NH
flatlined at 9p for a while
NH
and then whoosh
NH
up to 20p
NH
it has been around for ages
NH
listed in 2006
NH
at wait for it
NH
148p
BE
Oh.
NH
At the placing price of 148 pence per share, £20 million before expenses has
been raised via a Placing of common shares. Approximately £18.8 million before
expenses will be retained by the Company and approximately £1.2 million before
expenses will be retained by selling shareholders. The market capitalisation of
Aqua Bounty at the placing price will be approximately £74 million.

The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the placing for additional
launches of its lead product, Shrimp IMS, in the key markets of the Americas and
Asia as well as for the commercialisation of its developmental products. Shrimp
IMS is an immune stimulant that has been shown to significantly increase the
survival of farmed shrimp and the productivity of shrimp farms.

NH
looks like it was orginally a Forrest Gump shrimp play
NH
not sure what happened to that
NH
but it is now focused on salmon
NH
The focus of management’s efforts during 2009 has been to secure approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) for AAS. All remaining technical submissions and requests for further information were completed during the year and AquaBounty’s facilities, including the trial production unit, were inspected by the authorities and passed fit for purpose.

Since the year end, in March 2010, the FDA issued the conclusion of its review of the AAS “Claim Validation” study and indicated that the remaining sections would be issued in due course. The Company has received letters from the Center for Veterinary Medicine (“CVM”) advising that they have all the necessary answers for three out of the total of seven parts of their examination of the application. This recent letter indicates acceptance of the AAS product claim or efficacy. The Company believes that the reviews for the remaining four parts of the examination are very nearly complete. Management has worked constructively with CVM’s reviewers to answer all questions and is confident of a successful outcome in the near future.

NH
that was from the results in May
NH
Following formal acceptance of the remaining four technical sections, it is expected that CVM will announce the holding of a Veterinary Medical Advisory Committee meeting on AAS as the next step in their formal process for the approval of the product.

The delay, however, has meant that AquAdvantage® Salmon eggs from the 2009 spawning, which were available for commercial trials if approval had been forthcoming, have been discarded. The next spawning will occur in the fourth quarter of 2010, which will produce a batch of AAS eggs for trials and for sale in early 2011.

NH
so we have to wait until early next year
NH
to see what the eggs are like
BE
Righty-ho. Anything else?
NH
a couple more to rattle through
NH
one is Bellzone
NH
update from their big iron ore development in Guiena
NH
and here is some comment from Canaccord on that
NH
comparing it to African Minerals
NH
Emerging iron ore developer Bellzone Mining have today announced a 57% boost to
the company’s total magnetite resource. The company has defined a JORC compliant
3.74bt of magnetite at the Kalia I prospect in Guinea. The resource represents only
6km of the 29km Kalia I & II strike. Furthermore, the group states that its internal
estimate for the entire 39km of the Kalia prospect has the potential to host more than
13bnt of magnetite and 2.9bnt of oxide at surface. The resource grade is very low at
23% Fe, but the company expects beneficiation can lift the grade to a saleable 68%
Fe for a
28.5% recovery.
NH
. Bellzone is working towards a bankable feasibility study
which currently envisages a 50mtpa operation in two stages. First stage production is
expected in 2014 at 20mtpa, which will fund the ramp up of the second stage to
50mtpa in 2018. In August Bellzone signed a ‘definitive’ agreement with China
International Fund for the full financing of the rail and port infrastructure and mine
development in return for a 100% off take at market prices. Relative to the other big
magnetite play in West
Africa, the £1bn market cap African Minerals, both the
potential size of the magnetite deposit and the scale of production is comparable, as
is the prospects for Chinese funding. African Minerals has a 10.5bt JORC compliant
magnetite iron ore resource, plus an estimated 1.5bt of hematite. On a MktCap/t
basis, African Minerals is valued at USc13/t, which is comparable to Bellzone’s
USc14/t (based on today’s JORC resource
Bellzone Mining PLC (BZM:LSE): Last: 64.75, up 2.75 (+4.44%), High: 67.75, Low: 64.50, Volume: 947.64k
NH
that all seems to be good news
NH
sorry the above was actually from Collins Stewart
NH
who have also commented on Mariana Resources
Mariana Resources Ltd (MARL:LSE): Last: 25.30, up 0.8 (+3.27%), High: 26.75, Low: 25.50, Volume: 387.01k
NH
A non announcement, no doubt to remind that the company is in the same area as
Andean Mining which is currently under offer by Gold Corp for $3.4b – Drilling is
underway at the Las Calandrias project in the Deseado Massif of Argentina’s Santa
Cruz province. A 10,000m drilling programme on three targets on the project aimed
at delineating mineralisation encountered in earlier programmes and building a
maiden resource on the property. The area is hotting up as an exploration play and
with positive news flow from the drill program over coming months the shares should
be well supported.
NH
and finally another punters favourite
NH
Pursuit Dynamics
NH
as rumoured in the paper last week
NH
a German brewing deal has duly appeared
Pursuit Dynamics Plc (PDX:LSE): Last: 294.00, up 24 (+8.89%), High: 299.00, Low: 281.00, Volume: 565.40k
NH
here’s Mirabaud on that deal
NH
Pursuit Dynamics has announced a contract to install the PDX brewing system at one of Oettinger Brauerei GmbH (‘Oettinger’) brewing plants.

Oettinger is one of Germany’s largest brewers with seven plants and approximately ten coppers producing c9m hectoliters of beer per annum. The PDX system will be installed at the Braunschweig brewery which is one of Oettinger’s largest.

It is expected that after being operational for a limited period, the PDX brewing system will be rolled out across the remainder of Oettinger’s breweries over the course of the next year.

NH
The Group has previously indicated that the PDX brewing system sells for approximately €250,000 with a fee for maintenance and a fee based on the energy saved. In our model we assume smaller averaged sized installations of €140,000 per copper – our estimate seems conservative on this basis. Assuming that all installations fall in FY11 we believe this contract alone will cover over 50% of our brewing division revenue forecast.

There are an estimated 15,000 copper installations globally (source: PDX) equating to an addressable market of €3bn (assuming €200,000 per copper) for system installations alone. The top ten brewers represent over 63% of the market (Source: Barth Report 2008 – 2009) – PDX is targeting ‘design wins’ with global brewers which should lead to ongoing business as brewers replace existing equipment. Please see our note dated 26th February for more detail of the benefits and economics of the PDX brewing system.

NH
The Group has also stated it is in negotiations with an increasing number of global brewers and local brewers in Europe and the US. PDX expects to provide an update in relation to these in due course.

This contract represents the first commercial brewing agreement for the Group under new management and closely follows the recent ethanol contracts. This now means that three of the initial four lines of business identified by management are now revenue producing or have commercial contracts (Ethanol, Brewing, Fire).

With strong newsflow expected over the coming months we re-iterate our BUY recommendation and 762p target price.

NH
as you can see they are very bullish
NH
762p target price
NH
vs
NH
the current quote of
Pursuit Dynamics Plc (PDX:LSE): Last: 294.00, up 24 (+8.89%), High: 299.00, Low: 281.00, Volume: 561.40k
12:08PM
NH
Bryce
NH
it’s past midday
NH
anything else to look at?
BE
Not much, really. 64bit asks about HAWK and the bulletin board muppet-hunt.
NH
zap
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
BE
It’s not just Nighthawk, of course. Casa Oil & Gas, and quite a few more whose names are not disclosed.
NH
SOmeone pushing Bowleven has been zapped
BE
Though it’s all gone quiet after the first shot across their bows, which I guess tells its own story.
BE
Meanwhile, developments in the First Quantum / ENRC fight.
NH
Oh yes
NH
this looks nasty
BE
Very much so.
BE
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) — First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is
considering seeking compensation of more than $1 billion to
cover financial losses at the Congolese Kolwezi project,
President Clive Newall told reporters today in London.
BE
First Quantum, a Vancouver-based copper producer, has a
case before a Paris arbitration court over the $750 million
Kolwezi project. Congo shuttered Kolwezi in 2009 and agreed last
month to sell it to London-based Eurasian Natural Resources
Corp.
BE
Miles did a good piece on this for the Saturday edition. Will just see if I can dig it out.
BE
“Many investors we talk to think ENRC may have made itself uninvestable, as they perceive the company has bought stolen goods off a corrupt government,” said Michael Rawlinson, head of mining at Liberum Capital.
NH
ouch
NH
nice quote
NH
still I guess it goes with the territory
BE
What – having to deal with some decidedly unsavoury characters when you’re looking to buy mining rights in the Congo?
NH
er yes
NH
on both sides
BE
Quite.
12:14PM
NH
I think we are done
BE
Hang on – Dinker mentions eco.
BE
Do we have Mr Archer to provide context on these manufacturing numbers?
NH
I don’t think so
NH
I do have this
NH
U.K. manufacturing output remained robust in Q3 according to a survey from
the EEF. (http://www.eef.org.uk/default.htm)
- According to the organisation “Britain’s manufacturers are continuing to
report buoyant trading conditions on the back of rising demand in overseas
markets” and that the recovery is sustained in Q3, “with output and orders
balances reaching record levels for the second quarter in succession”.
- The survey is encouraging, given other recent survey data indicating that the
recovery is losing steam in the second half of the year, with for example
PMIs disappointing.
NH
However, the short-term optimism highlighted by EEF’s survey “is shaded with
a degree of caution about the risks to growth in 2011. As fiscal
consolidation really gets underway in the UK and others follow suit, together
with the weaker outlook for the US and risks to the sustainability of Asia’s
growth path, the recovery could yet falter”, the report warned.
NH
that’s all I have
NH
before we go
NH
one more story
NH
on the RAW kind
NH
Euro RAW
NH
something in Switzerland called Synthes
BE
Right. The medical implant company.
BE
We develop, produce and market instruments, implants and biomaterials for the surgical fixation, correction and regeneration of the skeleton and its soft tissues.
NH
the idea seems to be that J&J could be looking at them
NH
but I think the company is controlled by some very old Swiss guy
NH
and his backing would be needed for any deal
NH
but J&J is cash rich at the moment
NH
a new cash position of $10bn and they are on the look out for deals
NH
opthopedics always of interest to them
NH
but this looks to be 50% family controlled
NH
and brokers are a bit sceptical
NH
here’s what one thought
NH
There are some overlaps in spinal products so not the most obvious deal but JNJ don’t do trauma (which is a big part of Synthes) so maybe. Family always been very proudly independent though, that would be the biggest stumbling block..
BE
Ok – ta for that. Interesting.
NH
are we done?
BE
Yes, I think we are.
NH
Rentokil moving higher
Rentokil Initial Plc (RTO:LSE): Last: 103.20, up 3.6 (+3.61%), High: 104.50, Low: 99.60, Volume: 6.60m
NH
FTSE 100 now up just 18.75 points at 5,447
NH
well done rabble
NH
you’re work for today is done
BE
So thanks for all your comments this morning.
BE
We’ll see you again tomorrow.
BE
Goodbye.
NH
cya
NH
(very good Tuna EmoticonEmoticon)
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