As usual AV readers did a good job of teasing out some of the nuances in Friday’s payroll report, and for more analytical heavy lifting we are outsourcing to Calculated Risk:
The underlying details of the employment report were mixed. The positives: the upward revisions to the June and July reports, a slight increase in hours worked for manufacturing employees (flat for all employees), an increase in hourly wages, and the decrease in the long term unemployed. Other positives include the slight increase in the employment-population ratio and the participation rate.
The negatives include the hiring of only 60,000 ex-Census, the increase in the unemployment rate (including U-6), and the increase in part time workers for economic reasons.
Overall this was a weak report and is consistent with a sluggish recovery.
And here’s an updated graph from Economix putting the employment numbers in the bigger context of this recession and those before it:
Markets (and Goldman Sachs) were expecting a worse number and rallied after the announcement, and Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw told the FT that the report makes it less likely that the Fed will begin a fresh round of QE2 at the September meeting of the FOMC.
We’ll see.
Related links:
Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks – Calculated Risk
Those /important/crucial/vital US jobs figures – FT Alphaville
US non-farm payrolls – down 54,000 – FT Alphaville