September, 2010
Previewing the ISM report
Will there be a another expectations-beating ISM report in the US on Friday?
The August PMI report was surprisingly healthy, though it also followed two months of declines and was almost exactly at the median and mean of the prior twelve months.
SEC charges State Street employees
The SEC has charged two employees of State Street with misleading investors over their subprime exposure.
According to the SEC order, John Flannery and James Hopkins marketed a fund that was mostly invested in RMBS as an alternative to a money market fund.
The biggest hedge funds in the US…
Out from AR magazine just moments ago is their annual ranking of the biggest hedge fund managers in the US. Unsurprisingly, Bridgewater is still number one. Surprisingly, it has increased its lead by a significant margin.
So why is Ireland taking a break from selling bonds?
And now for some more on Ireland’s missing bond sales.
To be sure, it’s not every day that a government puts a final price tag on bailing out its banks (and hence potential liabilities) — and then cancels a pair of bond auctions that might help towards financing those liabilities.
Analysts know how (if not when) to hold’em
Analysts, as we’ve noted, tend to be an optimistic bunch — except in the aftermath of recessions, when they tend to overcompensate.
But their bearishness, when it finally does arrive, doesn’t always translate into the expected “sell”
Better Paid
Typical. You can clear out staff, send in a new chief executive and make a massive shift to safer operations — but in the end, floating the possibility that you’ll restore the dividend is what really moves you up in the market:
Strange meddling
There’s something odd in this Wall Street Journal article about Tim Geithner’s meddling in the affairs of the independent regulators.
Not the infighting and turf wars within the Financial Stability Oversight Council — that was bound to happen sooner or later.
Tepco and ‘unusual price movements’ in Japan
Question: why would a stable, big Japanese company with huge cashflow, a high credit rating, a dividend yield on its shares of 2.9 per cent and ready access to debt markets — where its bonds trade at yields of under 0.5 per cent — want to launch a straight equity issue of Y555bn,
Markets Live transcript 30 Sep 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:28 on 30 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Tony Tassell Joseph Cotterill TTgood morning all JCHello TTwell we have an excting new line up today in the absence of both Neil and Byrce
Yes, the yen is up – or the dollar is down
We know this is getting repetitive, but well, yes, the yen — was back on the rise, or rather, the dollar was showing renewed weakness on Thursday as the Japanese currency headed for its highest level since Tokyo’s September 15 intervention in currency markets.
The LTRO roll-over continues [updated]
Thursday’s European liquidity update is brought to you by the European Central Bank’s special six-day fine-tuning refinancing operation.
The op’s taking place, as we’ve noted before, to coincide with about €225bn worth of maturing Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs).
Spanish stats — meddle or muddle?
Okay, we have removed the original post here because we were taking just too much heat, life’s too short and we’d even started to question the (political) motives of the anonymous source.
But we’ve left the comments,
Ireland takes a break from the bond market
Ireland’s final estimate for its bailout of Anglo Irish — €29.3bn total gross cost, or €34.3bn in a stress scenario – is striking enough. So is confirmation that the government will take a majority stake in Allied Irish Banks.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- Three Fed officials, three divergent views.
- Bill Clinton should know…
- The politics of Chinese adjustment.
- Five hidden costs of gold.
- Drug-war methods to fight insider trading.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
John Gapper: Facebook is not a punk’s drama
Punk. Billionaire. Genius. That is the three-word description of Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Ireland puts maximum Anglo Irish bailout cost at €34.3bn — statement.
- Allied Irish Banks planned capital increase rises to €10.4bn — statement.
- Sir John Rose to leave Rolls-Royce in March 2011 — statement.
Fed president speech roundup
If you needed yet another sign of disagreement within the Fed over the proper course of monetary policy, look no further than the texts of four speeches given by regional Fed presidents on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Of bond markets and imbalances
A global currency war rages, China slaps tariffs on US poultry, and the US Congress considers punitive measures related to the USD-RMB peg — suffice to say that complications related to global imbalances won’t be resolved anytime soon.
The Swiss franc is as good as gold (literally)
We like watching correlations here at FT Alphaville.
And here’s a new one to add to the melting pot.
According to the FX strategy team at UBS, the Swiss franc is increasingly correlating with the price of gold — a relationship traditionally held (although inversely) with the dollar.
The problems of a Basel-ed central bank
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.
The European Central Bank executive board member may not be a friend of analysts who ponder a Greek default, but he had some wise old words this Wednesday on the problems banks face in Basel III ‘s liquidity rules.
Hedging Ireland…
Or, who’s most exposed/correlated to Ireland.*
Ahead of Thursday’s ‘D Day’ for the Irish government’s final plans for the bailed-out bank Anglo Irish, Nomura has some ideas on how to hedge those Irish bonds they recommended you to buy earlier this month.
JP Morgan ponders the death of securitisation
For your digestion on Wednesday — 15 pages of Basel III brooding.
JP Morgan banking analysts led by Kian Abouhossein have meditated in their latest note on the potential effects of forthcoming Basel III regulations on investment banks,
Japan intervention watch
So much for Tokyo’s big, bold, intervention move. The yen rose further on Wednesday to Y83.50 before settling (temporarily no doubt) at around Y83.60.
That marks its highest against the dollar since Tokyo intervened on September 15 to try to curb its strength.
Markets Live transcript 29 Sep 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:23 on 29 Sep 2010. Participants in this chat were: Bryce Elder Miles Johnson, FT BEHello BEAnd welcome to Markets Live
Europe’s mystery dollar-snaffler strikes again
They’re at it again — whoever they are. The European Central Bank once again shuffled $60m to a single mystery bank in a weekly dollar allotment on Wednesday:
Presumably it’s been the same bank throughout in recent weeks.
Irony alert: China cries fowl
Minyanville has picked up on the irony of the month, following Monday’s news that China, which was the largest importer of US chicken in 2009 ($752.2m), will impose new ‘anti-dumping’ duties on chicken parts and whole birds,
Another LTRO roll-over [updated]
Wednesday is Long-Term Refinancing Operation roll day — the most significant European funding rollover since the expiry of the €442bn 12-month LTRO back in June.
About €225bn worth of European Central Bank liquidity largess will be maturing on September 30,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- Career lessons from “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”.
- The most consequential economic/business commentators?
- Global debt comparison watch: or ‘mine’s bigger than yours’.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Currencies clash in new age of beggar-my-neighbour
“We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency.