July, 2010
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Volvo Q2 beats forecasts, sticks to growth outlook – statement.
- Autonomy earnings up 7 per cent, confident on year – statement.
- Lonmin Q3 sales fall,
Further from El-Erian on Bernanke and sliding stock markets
With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on Capitol Hill presenting his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, stock markets are under notable pressure.
Bernanke’s full written testimony is now available.
BarCap vs HUD on Hamp
We do enjoy a good calling-out here on FT Alphaville, and on Wednesday, a pair of credit strategists at BarCap provided a neat example of the genre.
In a report headlined “Misleading Reporting of Mod Performance in the June HAMP Scorecard”,
Day 475 in the Celebrity Economist house
Day 475 in the Big Economist House.
10:19 am
Niall Ferguson, Ken Rogoff and Paul Krugman are in the kitchen.
Yesterday, housemates were punished for discussing too many conflicting economic solutions in the FT and the New York Times.
Wall St reform – the video
Courtesy of Whitehouse.gov…
Related links:
Obama signs financial reform bill – FT
The story of the gold curve, so far
FT Alphaville cited John Kemp last week regarding increasing evidence that the so-called ‘cash for commodity’ trade (aka contango trade) might be getting crowded.
Which is interesting, given that peculiarities have been emerging in the world’s most consistent and established contango market:
Ocado (IPO) tombstone
Click on the tombstone for further biographical detail.
El-Erian: What to expect from Bernanke’s report to congress
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, discusses the options facing the Federal Reserve as chairman Bernanke prepares to address Congress.
________
Over the next two days,
From stress-test inferno to capital purgatorio
Europe’s bank stress tests are coming to an end on Friday. Now what about the recapitalisation risk afterwards?
Having sprung more leaks than the RMS Titanic, the tests seem to suggest that almost every bank has passed.
Refilling the punchbowl
Here’s a post-crisis financial milestone to ponder on Wednesday, courtesy of some fresh data on banking activity from the Bank for International Settlements.
As the BIS comments (emphasis ours):
Markets Live transcript 21 Jul 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:27 on 21 Jul 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHola NHand welcome to Markets Live
Reckitt finally makes its move for SSL
That’s a relief.
After what feels like a decade of speculation, Reckitt Benckiser has finally got round to bidding for Durex condom maker and Scholl footcare group SSL International.
And what a bid it is.
Investing in Austerity Britain (or not)
As the UK comes to grips with the new-found austerity ushered in by new chancellor George Osborne and the first coalition government since 1945, you can expect to see a lot more of this type of research.
Is someone liquidating GLD?
In the old(er) days, it was generally said that gold traded in an inverse relationship with the dollar and also, to a lesser extent, other risky assets.
Yet, gold sold off sharply in June:
But the S&P 500 also saw a fall:
Double discount Ocado
Following Tuesday’s price cut, Webvan 2.0 is now even cheaper!
But it’s still not good value, according Nick Bubb, the veteran retail analyst at Arden Partners:
Investors are looking for genuine growth stocks,
Wednesday morning fat finger
This is GBP-USD crashing to 1.5188 and then rebounding to 1.5250 in the space of five minutes. Theories? Comments? Heavy hands to hold up?
(H/T Marc Ostwald)
The expedited Audit
Accounting-geeks (like us) might remember that at the start of last year there was much discussion as to whether Britain’s big four auditing firms — PwC, Deloitte, Ernst & Young, and KPMG — would be able to sign off the 2008 end-of-year accounts of the country’s beleaguered banks.
Better Personnel
Some action on a certain Intrade contract after the Times reported that BP’s chief executive Tony Hayward will be capped by autumn:
Though BP has ‘confirmed’ to Sky News that he’s staying. So that’s all right then.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- The banks – turning Japanese?
- “There is no threshold debt level that indicates a country is in trouble.”
- Analysts get SAD too.
- The Taylor rule speaks on the US economy.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Kenneth Rogoff: No need for a panicked fiscal surge
As it becomes increasingly evident that the recovery will remain subdued in Europe and the US,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Reckitt Benckiser agrees to buy SSL for £2.54bn – statement.
- Ocado cuts IPO offer price to 180 pence per share – statement.
- Johnson Matthey says expects ‘significantly stronger’ quarter – statement.
Meanwhile, in the Chinese property market…
Tip of the hat to the FT’s Tim Harford for this — an old-school academic’s take on life inside China’s uh, keen real estate sector. Mysterious goings on inside the country’s state-owned enterprises included.
Hurry, Webvan 2.0 special offer (updated)
A victory of sorts for common sense over investment bank hype.
Just out on RNS:
Ocado Group plc (the “Company”) is lowering the anticipated range in which it expects to set the Offer Price in respect of its initial public offering of Ordinary Shares.
Funny money profit warning
The emergency budget, the World Cup, the weather (rain, sun, wind and snow), global warming, and even Glastonbury have all been blamed by UK companies for profit warnings. But no one has ever blamed dodgy paper for an earnings miss — until now.
Goldman’s EBITDAF
That’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation and fines…
Kinda sad, really, that the mighty Goldman Sachs felt in necessary to include this proforma table in with its scarred Q2s.
What’s up with Spanish mortgage lending?
The non-performing pain in Spain is back in the limelight.
The total stock of non-performing loans sloshing around the Spanish banking system hit €100bn in May, according to data from the Bank of Spain released on Monday.
Goldman reports $0.78 earnings per share in Q2
Goldman Sachs’ announced earnings per share of $0.78 in its second quarter results on Tuesday — $2.75 proforma, excluding the impact of the UK bonus tax and settlement with the SEC. The results compared with a consensus of $2.36 proforma.