July, 2010
Bank of England Skiving* Paper No. 393
Okay, okay, maybe that header’s a bit harsh. But we have to ask what the point is of Working Paper No 393, The financial market impact of quantitative easing, from the Bank of England’s Michael Joyce, Ana Lasaosa,
Europe’s complex crisis, in some simple powerpoints
You could argue there’s a link between the trouble institutions are in and their propensity to use Powerpoint. See under: the U.S. Army and Afghanistan.
Now try the European Central Bank and the euro crisis.
Does the UK Takeover Panel have ExxonMobil’s number?
Shares in BP traded over 400p for the first time in around a month on Monday – June 9 to be precise – as bid rumours swirled:
Meanwhile, BP’s CDS was quoted at its lowest spread – 335bps since June 8.
NYSE programme trading soars end of June
We’ve noted a large fluctuation in last Friday’s programme trading numbers out of the NYSE.
Consequently we’ve decided to chart the year’s overall trend. And doing so confirms a clear and prominent spike in programme trading on the NYSE at the end of June,
A GLD contango strategy
According to the FT’s hedge fund correspondent, Sam Jones, the hugely successful Paulson & Co (he of subprime bet fame) currently denominates a third of its $33bn of assets under management in a share class bolstered by huge positions in the gold market.
Flowers pops up in UK mutual land
Compared to those high-flying days of yesteryear, über-deal maker Chris Flowers has been rather quiet – and we’d venture, not overly successful – as of late.
Among the more notable in a series of rather underwhelming deals have been his huge investment,
Markets Live transcript 12 Jul 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:12 on 12 Jul 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHRight NHWe have topped killed the first session
Spain’s big chance
Andrés Iniesta took his opportunity in the World Cup final, but will Spain take advantage of the chance offered by stress tests to restore market confidence in its financial system and economy?
It’s a question that Jacques Cailloux,
Kanned in Japan…
Groan. After all those “Kan-do” headlines and puns that accompanied the meteoric rise of Japan’s latest prime minister last month, come the inevitable “Kan can’t” jokes… So we thought we might as well join in.
Duster!
The price action in Falkland Oil & Gas on Monday morning, following news that it had found no hydrocarbons at its Toroa exploration well south of the Islas Malvinas:
So that’s Dusters TWO (FOGL and Desire Petroleum),
[South Africa 2010] Paul the octopus, conqueror of quants
Spain won.
Paul the Octopus was right.
And FT Alphaville, for one, welcomes our new cephalopod overlords.
Because from our reading of the results of the World Cup forecasting contest run by the data predictor chaps at Kaggle,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- We are all ratings agencies now.
- More end-of-quarter balance sheet smoothing.
- Bank of America comes clean, sort of.
- The lost sign language of trading.
- The BIS gold swap is the best news for gold in 30 years.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: Obama under business attack
Heads of US businesses who once lauded President Barack Obama have turned to grumbling, accusing him of over-reaching and indecision,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- BP spill response cost $3.5bn to date, $165m claims paid — statement.
- Falkland Oil & Gas says no hydrocarbons found at Toroa well — statement.
- Kent Reliance confirms in restructure talks with JC Flowers — statement.
FTfm on AV
Highlights from Monday’s FTfm.
AIFMD rules to be diluted
The EU’s proposed Alternative Investment Fund Managers directive is set to be heavily watered down to ease sales of hedge funds from outside Europe
Caymans’ domicile future seen as weak
European institutional investors increasingly choosing the more regulated Newcits funds,
Introducing the Sovereign Vulnerability Index
We all love a good league table – so here’s one from Rabobank economist Shahim Kamalodin.
No prizes for guessing which major industrialised economy is most vulnerable to a sovereign debt crisis, although interesting to see Japan,
Re: Flotation
To: michael.grade@ocado.com
Hello again Michael,
We have another question for you. Is it true that 2009 results were flattered by a change in depreciation policy?
Page 116 of the prospectus.
(Emphasis ours)
During the 2008 financial period the Group revised the life of certain plant and machinery,
Cocoa pops
The cocoa market could be about to pop, according to former commodity analyst John Kemp now columnist at Reuters.
On Thursday Kemp explained how 50,000 futures contracts, representing some 500,000 of tonnes of cocoa on the LIFFE exchange were still left open just five days before the July 2010 delivery date is due.
Markets Live transcript 9 Jul 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:20 on 9 Jul 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHola finance fans NHand good morning
QE2 or lower for longer?
Goldman wants it, Krugman would welcome it, but what about the Fed? Is it ready to set the printing press running again and start buying assets?
According to a seemingly well-informed article in the Washington Post the answer is no — unless things get much worse.
Banker of the year? — err, yes, quite
We don’t wish to seem churlish but – well, Euromoney’s decision to award its ultimate banker accolade, Banker of the Year, to Citigroup’s Vikram Pandit, piqued our curiousity.
Not only that, Citi –
Korea: To raise rates right now ‘takes guts’
After all those lectures about stimulus measures and well-meant (for the most part) advice from western central bankers about exit strategies, Asia appears to be leading the way in removing monetary stimulus.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- What’s a double-dip, anyway?
- Goldman smackdown, Dick Bove vs Meredith Whitney.
- Stocks have bottomed for the year – or have they?
- Barbie does economics.
- Emerging markets M&A:
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Why we must halt the land cycle
Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it, writes the FT’s Wolf. This applies not least to the immense financial and economic crisis into which the world has fallen.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Federal court refused to reinstate US deepwater drilling ban — report.
- Bovis Homes plans to resume dividend payments — statement.
- Autonomy is the new Tottenham Hotspur shirt sponsor (this is not a joke) — statement.
Reverse engineering Ocado’s valuation
Collins Stewart has put Ocado through Quest, its cashflow return on capital model. The results out underline the fact that there is no way the internet grocer is worth the indicative float price of 200-275p a share — unless,
It’s the BIS
One reason the BIS gold-swap story has courted some controversy is because, on the face of it, the Bank of International Settlements — being the central bankers’ central bank– is not supposed to lend to commercial banks.
BP nearing the kill zone
BP’s credit defaults swaps narrowed sharply on Thursday hitting 380 basis points, versus 409 the day before, according to Markit.
Which, of course, could be down to the following news (via Reuters):
To: michael.grade@ocado.com
Re: Flotation
Dear Michael,
We commend you on the brave decision to seek a stock market listing (of up to £1.1bn!) for Ocado. But before we think about committing any of our hard-earned cash, we have some questions.
Now for the downside on AgBank’s IPO
It was only a few weeks ago that The Economist ran an article on Agricultural Bank of China headlined: “Listing or capsizing?”
Then, on Wednesday, came the hype and gush about how the bank – the last