Joachim Fels just isn’t giving in.
Here’s what Morgan Stanley’s central-bank watcher had to say on his recent theme of inflation on Thursday — never mind the contrary case building for deflation:
Just what the doctor ordered? Most investors and central bankers seem to believe that the extreme monetary policy accommodation in the US and Europe is exactly what the doctor ordered in an environment where fears about double-dips, deflation and massive fiscal tightening abound, and where the banking sector, especially in Europe, is still struggling. However, we believe that these fears are overdone: we continue to say ‘no’ to the double-dip, we continue to worry more about the longer-term inflationary risks associated with extreme monetary accommodation, and we doubt that governments in the US and in the large euro area member states have the resolve to tighten fiscal policy drastically.
Or rather overmedication? If we are right, then central bankers and investors may be in for a rude awakening once it becomes clear that monetary policy has remained too expansionary for too long. Then, monetary policy will face an awkward choice between allowing inflation to run its course and raising interest rates aggressively despite high debt levels. Our suspicion is, as we have explained in the past, that they would opt for the former – allow higher inflation for some time in order to help reduce the debt burden.
And, well, there are two arguments backing up Fels here. First, rate hikes in a few countries are pinging off a giant flood of AAA XXL liquidity — the G4 central banks haven’t moved yet (and the UK especially is staying coy):
And perhaps there are few rate hikes left on the periphery – in Australia, China and Brazil – to keep the tightening bandwagon going.
Then again — even right at pixel time, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard was on the wires arguing that current Fed policy is risking Japan-style deflation.
Sigh. Please don’t let this go on all summer.
Related links:
XXL liquidity and a side of inflation, says MOST – FT Alphaville
The loss of central bank credibility, the coming inflation – FT Alphaville