This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips.

The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator:

Friday’s breaking news is the annualized growth rate slowed to -9.8% from -9.1 for the week ended July 9.

At this level, the ECRI — which Lex says is noted for its prescience, longevity and impartiality in predicting business cycles — is flashing a great big warning sign that the US economy is going to double dip and head into recession.

A -10 per cent market nearly always signals a recession, apparently.

Gulp.

(If you’re interested in the ECRI’s methodology, visit their site)

Related links:
ECRI watching with Edwards -  FT Alphaville
Another rollover to worry about? – FT Alphaville
The Short View – FT

This entry was posted by Neil Hume on Friday, July 16th, 2010 at 18:00 and is filed under Capital markets. Tagged with albert edwards, David Rosenberg, Double-dip, ECRI, Recession. Edit this entry.