Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 10:55 on 18 Jun 2010. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
PM
Morning
NH
are we up and running yet?
PM
Moring II
NH
my computer has frozen
BE
We are.
PM
I’m butting in early here
PM
executive announcement
PM
ML will be closing early today
PM
11.50 to be precise
BE
Why?
NH
yes
NH
why?
PM
Because I’m shipping everyone off to sweetings
NH
excellent
PM
for a celebratory lunch
NH
fish and chips
BE
PM
being friday, Sweetings will be packed
PM
so we’ve got to get theree early
PM
Celebrate Alphaville winning another EPpy
PM
These are big US awards
NH
no jokes pls rabble
NH
where’s the award ceremony?
NH
NY?
PM
We should say thankyou to the readers also
PM
We missed the awards ceremony
PM
was in Vegas last night
PM
we didnt know we were going to win
NH
right
NH
that’s ood
PM
Otherwise you’d be there and not here
NH
So I have missed out on a trip to Vegas
NH
great
PM
actually, i should nt say this but…
PM
We won an EPpy three eyars ago
PM
helen T and I went to the awards..
NH
where
PM
And had to drink iced tea
NH
Vegas?
PM
no was miami that time
PM
And miami is rubbish
PM
So — thank you again to the readers
PM
But we will be closing early today
PM
11.50
11:09AM
NH
Sweetings or Vegas
NH
hmmm
PM
Anyway, whats happening in the real world
PM
?
NH
I know which one I would have chosen
NH
right
NH
wider market then
NH
and…
NH
up again
NH
how many days is that?
BE
Eight.
NH
wow
PM
extraordinary
BE
Longest run in 11 months.
NH
World Cup Bounce
BE
Though the gain, in percentage terms, is pretty meek.
BE
Up only 5% or so over the period.
NH
not bad
NH
when factor in BP
BE
True. Shouldn’t forget the FTSE’s been dragging that anchor.
BE
So what’s the current reading, Neil?
NH
OK
NH
the FTSE 100 is up
NH
all of 6 points at 5,259
NH
very qiuet out there
NH
and getting quieter
NH
everyone will be leaving around midday
NH
so they can stick a dozen pints of strong continental larger
NH
down their necks before the match
BE
Is there something going on tonight, then?
NH
well
PM
USA back on
PM
the pitch
NH
it won’t be shown in Scotland
BE
I’m sure JJB on Princes Street’s sold out of Algeria strips already.
BE
So anyway, let’s turn to BP and the continued dead cat.
PM
hehe
11:12AM
NH
Right
NH
let’s do BP
PM
(taxloss — apols, intermitent prob)
NH
and get it out of the way
NH
shares up again
BP Plc (BP.:LSE): Last: 376.60, up 16.9 (+4.70%), High: 379.50, Low: 358.15, Volume: 59.48m
BE
Because of … what?
NH
BE
Yes. That’s probably accurate.
BE
Though there’s an upgrade to the daily catch figure.
BE
And, of course, the fallout from Mr Hayward’s visit to Washington.
NH
just as well, because every day there’s seems to be an upgrade to the leak level
NH
talking of which
NH
did you see this note
NH
from Soliel Securities
NH
we have quoted thenm before
BE
Go on.
NH
(Taxloss you can only beat what’s in front of you)
NH
I guess it makes enough sense that the leading newspaper in Britain would unload on President Obama. Maybe the editors own BP common and have just suffered a dividend cut along with millions of others. I would expect the editorial page to lambast the President, and I was not disappointed. The paper said the President’s address to the nation was “not a success.” The writers say he “built up expectations but then failed to impress” and in so doing may have “weakened him(self) further.” They continued “Having demanded the nation’s attention and decreed a moment of high drama, he was obliged, once and for all, to take command. He failed to…nearly two months into this crisis, the chain of command still looks hopelessly muddled. Far from correcting the impression of weak leadership with his address this week, Mr. Obama reinforced it.”
NH
But the news articles as well took shots at Mr. Obama. I expect the editorials to say whatever, but the news is supposed to be just the news (right – like in the US). Thursday’s edition claimed the President tried to sound Churchillian (an unfair comparison for almost anyone) but fell short. Quoting Bill Schneider of the Third Way think tank in Washington, they wrote “Just like the Iranian hostage crisis branded Jimmy Carter as hapless, and hurricane Katrina branded George Bush indifferent, Deepwater Horizon threatens to brand President Obama as a bystander to the big events taking place on his watch.”
BE
“The leading newspaper in Britain” …..
BE
He means us?
NH
They went out of their way to criticize the President bringing in the Republican National Committee’s statement that “Since April 20 President Obama has made the time to play six rounds of golf, take two vacations, attend two concerts, and go on cross-country fund raising junkets, but not to pick up the phone and speak directly with the executives of BP.” I remember Jimmy Carter was roundly condemned for his “Rose Garden” strategy of staying in the White House while Iran held our hostages. How do you win this one? You are damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.
NH
yep
NH
and apparently all the senior editors
NH
are loaded up with BP
NH
on margin
NH
and want the price up
NH
which is exactly er opposite
NH
to what we have been accued of
BE
Of course. This has all the classic hallmarks of a muppetinvestor argument.
NH
indeed
NH
the classic muppet argument
PM
NH
actually
PM
why do people always think we are literally talking out book?
NH
there is a new species out there
NH
worse than a muppet
NH
hang on
NH
just trying to find it
BE
Paul: I guess it’s because some people think no-one can be interested in what they do without some skin in the game. Judge others as you judge yourself, and all that hokum.
NH
Trader Chimps
NH
TRADER CHIMPS – definition: ‘Trader-Chimps’ are the monkeys that hop on to a stock that’s moving. They have a grand or two to their name geared up 10 fold with CFD’s and they’ll jump on any stock, lying their arse off to get it to rise. Then with consumate ease they take the opposite position and happy to lie their arse off and deramp the same stock with opposing lies, many running two handles to take opposing positions.
BE
Trader chimps. Yes.
BE
Nailed.
NH
If you can sift the Chimps you at least have extracted 85% of the crap ADFVN harbours imo. The rest are at least giving an honest opinion, whether that’s write or wrong. I reckon 15% is about right for the worthwhile investors and genuine traders imo and I know the ones I’m inclined to at least look at their suggestions. The other 85% are like Whipsnade escapees that have found a customer’s wallet imo.
PM
NH
The above was written by Cockney Rebel a poster on ADVFN.
NH
Troll alert
NH
Chimp alert
NH
Loretta
NH
under his fifth assumed name of the day
NH
someone ban him
NH
TROLL
PM
ive done it
NH
classic symptons
NH
we always talk the book of either
NH
analysts
NH
companies
NH
sources etc
BE
We’re City puppets, they’re trader muppets. It’s all circular.
PM
lets mvoe on
BE
Let’s.
11:20AM
BE
So what can we say about Hayward’s performance yesterday?
NH
straight bat
NH
Felix Salmon likened him to Geoff Boycott
NH
blockl
NH
block
NH
block
NH
foward defensive
PM
US media takes the breath away tho
PM
HuffPost
PM
in particular
BE
HuffPost has been embarrasing throughout this, in my opinion.
NH
did you see though
NH
the Texas senator
NH
who said BP had been the victim of shake down
NH
by Obama
NH
was forced to apologise
NH
I apologize for using the term ‘shakedown’ with regard to yesterday’s actions at the White House in my opening statement this morning, and I retract my apology to BP. As I told my colleagues yesterday and said again this morning, BP should bear the full financial responsibility for the accident on their lease in the Gulf of Mexico. BP should fully compensate those families and businesses that have been hurt by this accident. BP and the federal government need to stop the leak, clean up the damage, and take whatever steps necessary to prevent a similar accident in the future. I regret the impact that my statement this morning implied that BP should not pay for the consequences of their decisions and actions in this incident.”
NH
I retract my apology to BP
NH
NH
how is that for a u-turn
BE
Hm. Big oil presents something of a conflict of interest hen you’re a Texas senator.
BE
Anyway, I think we can say Hayward’s performance was a textbook coping strategy for when you’re attacked by a mob.
BE
You cover your head, lie very still and wait for them to get bored of kicking you.
BE
And all this stuff analysing his body language and voice is bunk.
BE
He’s always been appalling at presentation.
NH
true
NH
not a natural
NH
like Gordo
BE
He was hidden by the flaks for about a year.
NH
anyway
NH
let’s have one of those analysts notes
NH
the readers so love
NH
this one is from UniCredit
NH
I apologize for using the term ‘shakedown’ with regard to yesterday’s actions at the White House in my opening statement this morning, and I retract my apology to BP. As I told my colleagues yesterday and said again this morning, BP should bear the full financial responsibility for the accident on their lease in the Gulf of Mexico. BP should fully compensate those families and businesses that have been hurt by this accident. BP and the federal government need to stop the leak, clean up the damage, and take whatever steps necessary to prevent a similar accident in the future. I regret the impact that my statement this morning implied that BP should not pay for the consequences of their decisions and actions in this incident.”
NH
sorry
NH
start again
NH
this is the Unicredit note
NH
First breath of relief since 20 April… Wednesday’s BP-Obama agreements envisage the creation of a USD 20bn claims fund managed independently and aimed to satisfy legitimate claims including naturalresource damages and state and local response costs. The fund does not represent a cap on BP’s liabilities and does not include fines and penalties and clean-up/containment costs. As a result, BP canceled its 1Q10 DPS to be paid in June and suspended 2Q10 and 3Q10 dividendpayment. On top of this BP cut by 10% (USD 2bn p.a.) its capex guidelines for 2010 and 2011 and announced a USD 10bn disposal plan to be realized in the next 12 months.
NH
…but the game is not yet over. In our opinion, thepositive reaction of the stock is attributable to diminishing US asset seizure and lowerrefinancing needs. We see this as short-lived. We downgrade BP from Buy to Hold and cut our 12M TP by 38% to GBp 420 to factor in our estimates downgrade and the potential spill costs of the incident.
NH
Visibility lacking. We expect investor focus to shift to therisks of deferment/cancellation of start-ups and FIDs, structural increase incosts and capex, falling returns, dividend cuts. In this regard, we see BP as a company progressively losing the key distinctive factors (both industrial and financial) of its equity story, and with growing difficulties inmanaging its cash amid uncertainties over the magnitude of the spillcosts and the fiercer scrutiny of the US government
NH
Cash generation under pressure, DPS estimates cut. According to our calculations, BP could resume its dividend payment from 2011but cutting its yearly dividends by some 50% vs. the 2009 level to bring adjusted (by compensatory and damage liabilities) gearing back to 20% by 2013. Our new DPS estimates for FY11 and FY12 point to USD 0.28per share or 50% lower than the 2009 level, which we expect to be reached again only in 2013. Meanwhile at a dividend yield of 5.5%, substantially in line with its 3Y average, the stock seems fairly valued.
BE
(R.McIntyre: see my earlier comments about the futility of fighting back against mobs.)
BE
Goldman, meanwhile, stay cautious.
BE
Implications
We believe that the structure of the escrow fund and the aggressive capex
cut/disposal programme will allow BP to manage the cash outflow from
the GoM damages without needing to raise new capital. However, this
does not clarify the total size of the damages, as the escrow fund does not
represent a cap to BP’s liabilities in the GoM. We still believe that the total
damage range remains highly uncertain and we include US$34 bn of
liabilities in our valuation, as discussed in our June 7 and June 10 notes.
Although we believe that the risk-reward of BP shares is currently tilted to
the upside, we maintain a Neutral rating as we continue to see a better
risk-reward in our Conviction Buys, Royal Dutch Shell and Statoil.
We believe that the structure of the escrow fund and the aggressive capex
cut/disposal programme will allow BP to manage the cash outflow from
the GoM damages without needing to raise new capital. However, this
does not clarify the total size of the damages, as the escrow fund does not
represent a cap to BP’s liabilities in the GoM. We still believe that the total
damage range remains highly uncertain and we include US$34 bn of
liabilities in our valuation, as discussed in our June 7 and June 10 notes.
Although we believe that the risk-reward of BP shares is currently tilted to
the upside, we maintain a Neutral rating as we continue to see a better
risk-reward in our Conviction Buys, Royal Dutch Shell and Statoil.
BE
We now include an estimated pre-tax payment for GoM damages of
c.US$8 bn pa in 2010-13 in our P&L (including potential fines and
penalties), leading to a 21%/17%/24% cut to our EPS in 2010E/11E/12E.
c.US$8 bn pa in 2010-13 in our P&L (including potential fines and
penalties), leading to a 21%/17%/24% cut to our EPS in 2010E/11E/12E.
BE
Valuation
Our 12-m, EV/DACF-based PTs of 580p and US$51 ADS (from 580p/US$52)
include an assumed US$34 bn pre-tax liability from the GoM and a 10%
EV/DACF discount to the sector. Changes reflect lower production growth
Our 12-m, EV/DACF-based PTs of 580p and US$51 ADS (from 580p/US$52)
include an assumed US$34 bn pre-tax liability from the GoM and a 10%
EV/DACF discount to the sector. Changes reflect lower production growth
BE
So, should we move on while there’s still time?
NH
yes
11:28AM
NH
I just wanted to follow up on yesterday’s RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
Cape
NH
are indeed being stalked
BE
Ah yes. Confirmed after hours.
PM
good hit that
Cape PLC (CIU:LSE): Last: 242.75, up 15.25 (+6.70%), High: 257.00, Low: 239.50, Volume: 2.23m
BE
So, PE?
NH
I think so
NH
analysts disagree
NH
the story I am hearing
NH
is that the bidder is 3i
NH
they have offered 300p a share
NH
management don’t think it is enough
NH
and they may have a point
NH
as such
NH
there is a big risk the whole thing could fall apart
BE
I see. I’d have thought shareholders would be quite happy with c.300p.
NH
quite
NH
although Cape is quite lowly rated
NH
and seems to have a booming business down under at the moment
NH
for those following this emerging story
NH
a few bits of comment
NH
first up Panmure
NH
Despite its prospects Cape has not managed to sustain a credible valuation
rating. As a result the high returns have attracted the intentions of what we
presume to be a private equity bidder. In our view private equity could pay
300-325p per share. Cape has a valuable position in ROW markets, nuclear
and rig decommissioning work; however and with synergies trade could pay
as high as 400p.
rating. As a result the high returns have attracted the intentions of what we
presume to be a private equity bidder. In our view private equity could pay
300-325p per share. Cape has a valuable position in ROW markets, nuclear
and rig decommissioning work; however and with synergies trade could pay
as high as 400p.
NH
Cape’s valuation (sub 6.0x PE, and sub 4.0x EV/EBITDA) has become depressed
enough to attract the attention of an early stage bidder. At yesterday’s closing EV, and
accordingly to our private equity return model, it offered a 5 year CAGR return of 26%.
With some pick-up in new projects, and then considering its capability in offshore rig
decommissioning and in the nuclear sector, then returns can be higher.
enough to attract the attention of an early stage bidder. At yesterday’s closing EV, and
accordingly to our private equity return model, it offered a 5 year CAGR return of 26%.
With some pick-up in new projects, and then considering its capability in offshore rig
decommissioning and in the nuclear sector, then returns can be higher.
NH
We speculate that private equity can pay 300p-325p per share for Cape (offering a return
of 13-15%. Trade buyers such as Bilfinger or Harsco Corp would be expected to pay
another 60p per share to account for £10m in forecast cost synergies.
of 13-15%. Trade buyers such as Bilfinger or Harsco Corp would be expected to pay
another 60p per share to account for £10m in forecast cost synergies.
NH
and Collins Stewart
NH
We do not change our pre-bid price target of 312p (8x 2010 earnings),
though given Cape s past track record at surprising on the upside earnings
wise, we believe 39.0p may prove a conservative forecast. There is
significant free cash flow in the Group-
£60m for the current year after tax
and interest (a CF yield based on last nights close of 23%), and given the
level of historic investment in the business, any buyer is unlikely to have to
materially ramp up cap-ex. An exit at 5.5x 10 EV/ EBITDA would not be a
demanding price for a Buyer- this would imply 370p per share.
though given Cape s past track record at surprising on the upside earnings
wise, we believe 39.0p may prove a conservative forecast. There is
significant free cash flow in the Group-
£60m for the current year after tax
and interest (a CF yield based on last nights close of 23%), and given the
level of historic investment in the business, any buyer is unlikely to have to
materially ramp up cap-ex. An exit at 5.5x 10 EV/ EBITDA would not be a
demanding price for a Buyer- this would imply 370p per share.
NH
done
BE
Thanks.
11:32AM
BE
While on raw …..
BE
What do we make of the return of this Songbird/QIA story?
NH
the one in the Times
NH
behind the paywall?
NH
(Very good Taxloss)
PM
(Taxloss – v funny)
BE
Haven’t read it, needless to say, but got the gist from elsewhere.
BE
And the story of a QIA bid has been heard around the traps for about six months.
NH
true
NH
Songbird
NH
which owns Canary Wharf
NH
if you didn’t know
NH
says they have not received an approach
NH
that’s unofficially official
NH
if you see what I mean
NH
but
NH
the QIA
NH
are on such a shopping spree in London
NH
that you can’t rule this out happening
NH
at some point
NH
and they are a big shareholder already
BE
Ah yes. Buying The (soon to reopen) Savoy and the Grovsener as well, apparently.
NH
Songbird shares are up 5.9p at 153.5p
NH
Savoy opens in October
NH
bizzarely
NH
I saw that on RNS today
PM
Including new grill room?
PM
And American bar?
NH
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM–(Marketwire – June 17, 2010) – The Savoy, A Fairmont Managed Hotel, will reopen its doors on Sunday, October 10, 2010. One of this year’s most eagerly anticipated openings, The Savoy has been undergoing the most ambitious restoration in British history. The hotel closed in December 2007 for a restoration that encompasses the entire building from the iconic entrance and the American Bar to Savoy Grill and the 268 guestrooms and suites.
“We are very excited to reopen The Savoy”, comments Kiaran MacDonald, General Manager. “It is fair to say that this project has not been without its challenges, but we are looking forward to unveiling the results of nearly three years of hard work and dedication. We are very aware of the place that The Savoy holds in many people’s affections and we firmly believe that the hotel will exceed people’s expectations and reclaim its position as one of the world’s great hotels.”
NH
The Savoy’s reopening will reveal a number of notable highlights including the complete remodel of the legendary River Restaurant, the addition of a luxurious new two bedroom Royal Suite and the relaunch of 38 River Suites and Guestrooms with stunning views over the River Thames.
NH
ew to the hotel will be The Beaufort Bar, a glamorous art deco bar that will offer champagne, cocktails and cabaret and Savoy Tea, a bijou teashop selling Savoy tea, accessories and fresh patisserie. Within the Thames Foyer, the re-introduction of a stunning winter garden gazebo beneath an ornate glass dome will provide the perfect ambience for afternoon tea. In addition, the Savoy Grill will return again under the operation of Gordon Ramsay Holdings with Chef Patron, Stuart Gillies and Head Chef, Andy Cook. For those who wish to continue their fitness regime on the road, there will be a contemporary, glass enclosed fitness gallery and rooftop swimming pool – one of the few in the city.
NH
oh no
NH
Gordon Ramsay
NH
rooftop pool sounds nice
NH
on your next stay in London, Murph?
BE
It is Ramsaycorp, yes. So Mark Askew will be dropped in like Red Adaire to run the kitchen while the critics visit.
BE
Then it’ll be left to some work experience trainee for the actual public.
BE
Anyway, that’s enough of that I think.
11:37AM
NH
hang on
NH
on the bid rumours
NH
I have a bit of comment
NH
In many respects Songbird represents a dysfunctional listed entity given the complexity of its capital structure; the 31% outstanding minority interest it does not own in Canary Wharf Group, a free float of only 28% and pre-emption rights over dividends to ordinary shareholders for preference share holders. Therefore we view a privatization of the company by Qatar or another party (China Investment Corporation are 14.7% shareholders) as a natural move in the medium-term.
Qatar Holdings evidently has deep enough pockets to finance a deal as demonstrated by its recent purchase of Harrods, another trophy asset, for £1.5bn. Importantly, Qatar Holdings may also have the will and financing to resolve the conflict over the 31% of Canary Wharf still owned by a selection of Canadian investors (Brookfield, Franklin Resources, Ontario Teachers). China Investment Corporation would have a key role to play in any deal given that it also participates in various layers of the capital structure as would the other major Songbird shareholder Simon Glick, who owns 23.95%. Their appetite to sell is not known albeit that CIC has already made a 44% return on its investment in Songbird’s ordinary shares based on the 100p subscription price at last year’s capital raise.
Qatar Holdings evidently has deep enough pockets to finance a deal as demonstrated by its recent purchase of Harrods, another trophy asset, for £1.5bn. Importantly, Qatar Holdings may also have the will and financing to resolve the conflict over the 31% of Canary Wharf still owned by a selection of Canadian investors (Brookfield, Franklin Resources, Ontario Teachers). China Investment Corporation would have a key role to play in any deal given that it also participates in various layers of the capital structure as would the other major Songbird shareholder Simon Glick, who owns 23.95%. Their appetite to sell is not known albeit that CIC has already made a 44% return on its investment in Songbird’s ordinary shares based on the 100p subscription price at last year’s capital raise.
NH
Valuation: Songbird’s shares are trading at 0.86x its December 2009 NAV, falling to 0.75x if you include Songbird’s share of the benefit of the £224m AIG rental guarantee on the Lehman Brothers building at 25-30 Bank Street. Ignoring takeover speculation for a moment, we are of the view that Songbird should trade at a material discount to its NAV including the Lehman’s guarantee (c20-25%), meaning 144-153p. Factoring in a 30% premium for control by Qatar on top of this range suggests 187-199p (the placing of the rump shares in last year’s capital raising was done at 132p). We would be surprised to see a transaction struck at a premium to NAV and therefore the bottom end of this takeout range appears more appropriate. We do acknowledge however that control of an iconic asset, rather than pricing, is likely to be Qatar Holding’s key motivation were a deal to progress.
11:38AM
NH
Moving on
NH
can I rant about something
BE
I dare say you can, yes.
PM
rant away neil, rant away
PM
But remember you’ve only got 13 minutes
PM
12 even
NH
it is this
NH
from CityAM
BE
Ah. You mean the Brit story.
NH
Brit Insurance: Brit Insurance, the Lloyd’s of London outfit, has asked the City watchdog to investigate the leaking of a £785m takeover offer for the business from US private equity group Apollo. Brit’s board, led by chief executive Dane Douetil and chaired by John Barton, is said to be concerned after news of an anonymous approach was reported by a trade magazine before a stockmarket announcement had been made last Thursday. Brit is expected to meet its largest shareholder, Schroders, today to discuss the impasse with Apollo. The firm has the backing of most of its top 10 investors to hold out for an offer of at least £11 per share – equal to forecasts of its tangible net assets for 2010 – but some smaller fund managers say they would be prepared to sell at £10.50. (City AM)
PM
(Taxloss — you on a yellow for that)
NH
OK
NH
so I would like the City watchdog to investigate Brit
NH
specifically I want the following looked at
NH
why they didn’t respond the insurance article
NH
until after the market closed
NH
around 10 hours later
NH
why the response
NH
did not name the bidder or the price
NH
the company were forced to confirm that
NH
after a piece in the FT
NH
and I believe they are trying to find out where that came from
NH
so
NH
as with Sky
PM
So when the FSA have finished their news corp/Sky investigation they can look at the false market in brit
NH
was their a false market in Brit
NH
and do Brit have utter contempt for their shareholders?
Brit Insurance Holdings N V (BRE:LSE): Last: 915.50, down 4.5 (-0.49%), High: 923.00, Low: 910.00, Volume: 192.97k
BE
No argument. Brit was a false market. The FSA should act.
NH
rant over
11:42AM
NH
Ascot tips?
BE
Hang on – before we do …
NH
another Frankie roll-up from the Shrewdette
BE
I did have one thing I’ve been meaning to note for a few days.
Misys PLC (MSY:LSE): Last: 258.50, down 0.6 (-0.23%), High: 263.50, Low: 258.00, Volume: 1.16m
NH
go on
BE
Now, completion of this deal to sell off its US Allscripts side seems to be in the price.
BE
However ….
BE
Anyone looking at the Allscripts US price might be getting a tad worried.
BE
Closed below $16.50 last night.
NH
(taxloss managment want book value – more than £11 a share)
NH
hmmm
NH
and the price has to remain above a certain to do the buyback
NH
so will Misys shareholders get their cash?
Strange software outfit, seemingly controlled by US investor ValueAct Capital.
BE
Exactly. The transaction is conditional upon a placing of 36-40m Allscript shares at a price no less than $16.50 per share.
BE
And that happens five months from now, in October
BE
There’s every chance this could blow apart.
BE
Anyway, just noting that. One to keep your eye on.
11:45AM
BE
So let’s return to Ascot, shall we?
NH
yep
NH
Frankie roll up day
NH
(Agreed Taxloss – just saying want management want £11. Apollo won’t go there)
NH
A nice winner and a couple of well priced EWs yesterday- so we should all be ahead – just.
Be warned : I’ve got another Frankie roll-up on the go today!
Be warned : I’ve got another Frankie roll-up on the go today!
NH
2:30 Al Sharood 10/1(Frankie) and Margot Did also 10/1(Hayley) – can’t decide!
3:05 MONTEROSA 9/2 – Frankie rides but Yes he is fancied. GREEN MOON 11/4 is the one to beat.
3:50 ANNA SALAI 11/2 after very narrow defeat in the Irish 1000 guineas (Frankie!)
4:25 INDIAN DAYS 14/1 keeps running second will he get in fron of fav RAINBOW PEAK 2/1, but worth an EW punt.
5:00 TROAS 14/1 EW – (trained by John Oxx who wouldn’t make the trip from Ireland if he didn’t feel he had a chance). But also like TOTAL COMMAND 9/1
5:35 BANGALORE GOLD 8/1 (Frankie again!) and HIMALYA also 8/1. Nice forecast?
Hope that lot keeps us in front for the weekend.
3:05 MONTEROSA 9/2 – Frankie rides but Yes he is fancied. GREEN MOON 11/4 is the one to beat.
3:50 ANNA SALAI 11/2 after very narrow defeat in the Irish 1000 guineas (Frankie!)
4:25 INDIAN DAYS 14/1 keeps running second will he get in fron of fav RAINBOW PEAK 2/1, but worth an EW punt.
5:00 TROAS 14/1 EW – (trained by John Oxx who wouldn’t make the trip from Ireland if he didn’t feel he had a chance). But also like TOTAL COMMAND 9/1
5:35 BANGALORE GOLD 8/1 (Frankie again!) and HIMALYA also 8/1. Nice forecast?
Hope that lot keeps us in front for the weekend.
NH
Bangalore Gold
NH
looks like it could be worth a flutter
BE
Tenner on the nose of Anna Salai for me.
BE
Rolled up with a 2-1 for Algeria.
NH
Right
NH
two minutes left
NH
of today’s shortened session
NH
just time to throw up a few nots on the bank stress
NH
the european one
NH
that they must be releasing
NH
because it shows everything is fine
NH
pointless excercise i imagine
NH
anyway Credit Suisse
NH
says they will be stress testing a double dip
NH
We believe that the stress scenario being considered by European regulators is a severe “double dip” recession: To simulate this case,
we update our note of 18 Sept 2009, “H2 Provisions Key To Sector Valuation”. We assume that the average rate of NPL formation seen in H1 09 is continued for eight quarters starting Q1 10, and that new NPLs are provisioned at a 60% coverage ratio (50% in Italy reflecting local practice in accounting for restructured loans). This is not a perfect methodology – H1 09 NPL formation was driven by somewhat different forces than the current set of risks – but has the advantage of being an objective basis for analysis, and for the most part delivers sensible estimates of potential impact.
we update our note of 18 Sept 2009, “H2 Provisions Key To Sector Valuation”. We assume that the average rate of NPL formation seen in H1 09 is continued for eight quarters starting Q1 10, and that new NPLs are provisioned at a 60% coverage ratio (50% in Italy reflecting local practice in accounting for restructured loans). This is not a perfect methodology – H1 09 NPL formation was driven by somewhat different forces than the current set of risks – but has the advantage of being an objective basis for analysis, and for the most part delivers sensible estimates of potential impact.
NH
and says they won’t
NH
stress test a sovereign debt crisis
NH
which is surely more important
NH
so
NH
credit suisse have conducted
NH
there own sovereign stress test
NH
and the results are
NH
Updating the methodology of our report of 16 February 2010 “Sovereign risk – what’s the impact?”, we have taken the change in sovereign bond prices over the last three months and applied it to our estimate of sovereign bond holdings (making adjustments for our assessment of holdings of non-domestic government bonds, and not allowing banks in France or Germany to offset positive movements on domestic bonds against losses elsewhere).
NH
In neither case is the stress unbearable. In some cases, the double-dip scenario delivers a lower impact on 2011e equity and Tier One than our actual forecasts; in the majority of cases, the impact is less than two percentage points of Core Tier One ratio; the aggregate impact is 8% of TNAV and 0.7pp of Core Tier One. The outcome of the sovereign debt haircut scenario is also rather marginal, in our
opinion, at an aggregate 0.6pp of Core Tier One. We have not amalgamated the two scenarios (a genuine sovereign-crisis-plus recession scenario would require much more detailed company-specific analysis; we have used different years for calculating the capital impact to underline the point that they are not meant to be additive), but no banks in our sample appear to be pushed to unsustainably lower. Core Tier One ratios. Our coverage universe is only a part of the aggregate Euro area banking sector (we have not analysed the non-quoted banks, where conditions could be worse), but our analysis suggests that the current situation is less dangerous than the
2008 crisis.
opinion, at an aggregate 0.6pp of Core Tier One. We have not amalgamated the two scenarios (a genuine sovereign-crisis-plus recession scenario would require much more detailed company-specific analysis; we have used different years for calculating the capital impact to underline the point that they are not meant to be additive), but no banks in our sample appear to be pushed to unsustainably lower. Core Tier One ratios. Our coverage universe is only a part of the aggregate Euro area banking sector (we have not analysed the non-quoted banks, where conditions could be worse), but our analysis suggests that the current situation is less dangerous than the
2008 crisis.
11:52AM
PM
time to go neil and bryce
PM
Executive decision
NH
almost
NH
the BP Troll is back
NH
on another post
NH
can we get his IP address and ban him for ever
BE
Of course. Making the same irrelevant point again and again and again, like a man shouting at traffic from the middle of a roundabout.
PM
We can write to his parents
PM
but we are done here
PM
Come
BE
So anyway, aside from him, thanks for all your comments today.
BE
And this week.
NH
late RAW
NH
*GAZPROM DOESN’T EXCLUDE CENTRICA PURCHASE
PM
where’s taht from?
NH
and earlier RAW
PM
Saw mention earlier
NH
- Attached is the official report. – Last year, Co denied that Lantus caused cancer, yet another independent study published has highlighted that it does. – Lantus has €3.2bn of sales & the most telling observation from the study: The study (Mannucci et al “Doses of insulin and its analogues and cancer
occurrence in insulin-treated type II diabetic patients”) shows new evidence,
besides the four studies published in Diabetologia last year, linking the use
of Sanofi’s long-acting insulin analogue Lantus to an increased cancer risk.
- Needless to say, the Co’s response will be axiomatic, but either way, its not good…
occurrence in insulin-treated type II diabetic patients”) shows new evidence,
besides the four studies published in Diabetologia last year, linking the use
of Sanofi’s long-acting insulin analogue Lantus to an increased cancer risk.
- Needless to say, the Co’s response will be axiomatic, but either way, its not good…
NH
that’s on Sanofi
NH
which was off around 6%
BE
(@Bundesbank: I’m trying not to feel snubbed.)
BE
Back next week.
PM
Seeya