Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 20:20 on 6 May 2010. Participants in this chat were: Paul Murphy Neil Hume, FT Stacy-Marie Ishmael, FT Joseph Cotterill
PM
Welcome to an emergency session of markets live
NH
what the hell is going on?
PM
After you left the office in London earlier
PM
The euro debt concerns started to eat into Wall st stocks
PM
It was just building up steam
NH
sorry getting hit with calls
NH
just catching up voice mail
PM
I nipped to the conference office for a meeting with a guy called Julian Koski
PM
Interesting chap. has a now valuation approach that basically says everything’s overvalued
PM
I come back to my desk and…
SMI
It hit a low of 9872.57 at 2:48 p.m, nearly off 1000 points.
NH
hearing this was a massive fat finger
NH
that went wrong in Procter & Gamble
NH
and that triggered a massive, massive sell prorgam
NH
and nor is anyone else
NH
to be honest everyone is guessing
PM
Definitely a P&G problems
NH
that seemed to trigger it
PM
Iztman — Stacy here also
NH
trying to get my Reuters screen workin
SMI
Other than P&G, there’s a lot of speculation of a hedge fund blow-up
SMI
This is from OptionMonster just now
SMI
The rumors have been out there this week, about a fund or funds being liquidated and that certainly could be true. Today’s move, particularly in the past hour, feels like a hedge fund being liquidated. When this is done it looks like this. It feel like this.
Someone pulled the trigger on closing somebody big yesterday two hours into the bell and then the market settled down in the final hour. Today they’ve matched that pattern exactly, but I doubt we will see much of a settling down. If you have dry powder this is when you deploy, into a crapstorm like this, but the smart money may not want to do that into the weekend. Damn, this is a perfect storm for a bear, which I was one!
NH
is someone on the reuters screen?
PM
Neil — i was but ive been logged out
PM
You should be okay to access now
PM
For anyone looking for the root cause here
PM
This has got to be partially to blame
PM
That’s trichet earlier
SMI
This is from the WSJ on other markets (they were admirably quick off the mark on their main site)
SMI
Credit markets, too, are beginning to show signs of stress. Three-month Libor, the benchmark rate for billions of dollars in debt, shot to 0.42 percentage point from 0.37 percentage point, traders said. Corporate bond indexes also tumbled.
JC
Apols – just got off phone with AFME spokesman
PM
neil can you get on your terminal yet?
JC
Regarding European bond market panic earlier in the day, ironically enough
SMI
The NY TImes, as it was happening, ran a series of flashes: Dow falls 500 points on Greece worries, then Dow falls 900 points on Greece worries
PM
Event Horizon — very funny
SMI
Which shows the perils of instant market reporting, really…
NH
Dow off 458 points now
NH
if this is a fat finger
NH
just pulling up a FTSE future for June
SMI
A commenter has just pointed out Bank of America is down more than 7 per cent
SMI
All the US banks are getting slammed
NH
that’s down 300 points
PM
Sorry Neil — FTSE off 300 futures?
NH
on the FTSE 100 June futures contract
NH
not sure I can get Athens
SMI
PaceMkt – yes, I know. But I’m not convinced by the attribution of the drop to ‘just a fat finger’ given that there is broad based selling, as in the financials
PM
P&G should be a safe haven, he notes!
PM
We should say hello to all our new readers
PM
People who dont normally watch Markets Live
NH
trading like a nutter at the moment
PM
For anyone confused by this
PM
Markets Live is a daily instant-messgage type conversation hosted by Neil at 11am London time each day
PM
Usually with Bryce Elder
PM
But myself and Stacy this time
NH
just flicking through the blogs
NH
to see if there is any explanation as to what’s happened
SMI
HinTat – yes, completely agree. You can bet Senator Kaufman is going to be flooding media inboxes with statements on the matter imminently
NH
Stocks plummeted in a flashback to the panicked trading of 2008. Investors fled everything from stocks and risky bonds and poured money into safe assets such as U.S. Treasurys.
Stocks began the day in negative territory but took a sharp dive south in the afternoon as selling built up and some indexes fell through key technical levels, sparking new waves of selling, investors said.
PM
Francesco mentioning that a big name is being mentioned in connection with this fat finger rumour.
NH
As losses piled up, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. Key short-term credit markets—such as the rate for three-month Libor—began to show signs of stress and corporate bonds tumbled. The Dow was recently down about 485 points to 10380.
A 20% drop in the Dow would have been needed to halt trading. After 2:30 p.m. EDT, the 20% standard goes into effect. Before then, a 10% drop would have triggered at least a 30-minute halt. For the second quarter, 10% equals a 1,050-point drop in the Dow industrials while 20% equates to 2,150 points.
SMI
I’ve been hearing Citi
SMI
as the source of the fat finger
NH
hearing this could have cost someone $500m
PM
Lots of names being mentioned now
PM
No confirmation on anything
PM
ther than the NYSE saying “its not our fault — not a system issue”
PM
And rude, of course, not to blame Goldman
SMI
Ross – allegedly is no defence against libel
JC
‘No technical glitches as market declined’, as NYSE said
SMI
Arid – I’m not convinced a drop of such swiftness and magnitude could be described as ‘normal’
PM
Almsot got a full house here on AV
JC
Hi, struggling to get Libor off Bloomberg
PM
Probably busy writing for the paper
NH
NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) – The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) confirmed on Thursday there were no system errors during the volatile trading in the afternoon that drove the Dow <.DJI> and the Nasdaq <.IXIC> down more than 9 percent.
NH
15:16 06May10 RTRS-US STOCKS-Indexes down 3 pct after plunging
(Adds quote, details) NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) – U.S. stocks were down more than 3 percent on Thursday afternoon after briefly nosediving, with the Nasdaq at one point down more than 9 percent and the S&P 500 and Dow briefly falling into negative territory for the year, as worries about contagion from Greece’s debt problems mounted. Investors were disappointed the European Central Bank did not take fresh measures to help stem the Greek debt crisis. The ECB did not discuss the outright purchase of European sovereign debt as some had hoped for, but gave verbal support instead to Greece’s savings plan. The ECB left interest rates at a record low. For details, [ID:nLDE6450H7] “Right now you just have a panic sell. It could be a long-term negative for stock market because it could mean the long-term high is in place. It’s very likely we’ve seen the highs for this cycle,” said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services in Sacramento, California. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 340.47 points, or 3.13 percent, at 10,527.65. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.SPX> was down 35.89 points, or 3.08 percent, at 1,130.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 65.34 points, or 2.72 percent, at 2,336.95. (Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, additional reporting by Al Yoon; Editing by Leslie Adler) ((caroline.valetkevitch@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6393; Reuters Messaging:caroline.valetkevitch.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: MARKETS STOCKS
PM
ducky333 and others — nothing confirmed on the fat finger front
NH
also my sterling figure from earlier was wrong if you hadn’t guessed
PM
Being asked by the news desk in Londo to clarify cable raate
SMI
Here’s an interesting bit of commentary from TechCrunch on how even the real-time web couldn’t keep up, apposite given the bloomberg/yahoo/etc being down – http://techcrunch.com/2010/05/06/stock-market-crash-web/
NH
there are more important things to worry about that a fat fingered sterling quote
PM
Everyone’s blaming citi now
NH
FTSE future down 270 points now
PM
Joseph — put that French snap up
PM
Still rumour stage tho
JC
Wall Street: Citigroup aurait vendu 16 milliards de contrats futures au lieu de 16 millions. D’où la chute libre. #rumeur
JC
‘Milliards’ is billions, right Stacy?
NH
that’s some fat finger
PM
that’s what im hearing from Mike Mackenzie
SMI
Arid – the sense I’m getting from the couple of phone calls and emails, is that the broader selling was Greece/sovereign, but the sudden, sharp plunge a fat finger
NH
Just got something from the Wall Street Cheat sheet
NH
Now that the roller coaster has snapped back a bit, time to root out the cause. Obviously, concerns about the sovereign debt crisis is the macro catalyst, and this morning Moody’s (MCO) warned that the crisis could spread to banks in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, and the UK.
But none of that caused a near 1000 point drop in the Dow (DIA). The immediate cause was the nosebleed quantity of stop losses waiting just below the S&P 500 (SPX) support line at 1144. When buyers couldn’t hold the line, sellers pushed prices to the stop loss triggers and … SNAP: the volume of sell orders flooded in from hedge funds and institutions with preordained safety against what everyone fears could be an international version of the Bear Stearns-Lehman Brothers film we saw in the US.
The selling was so robotic, at one point blue chip Procter & Gamble (PG) was down 30%!! Now that’s a fire sale dislocation of price and value.
SMI
mwold – yes, quite. it’s not clear why that wouldn’t have happened, but as Neil’s just put up, stop losses also getting blamed
NH
theories come thick and fast now
NH
this from Credit Writedowns
NH
Here’s what I am hearing. There was a “fat finger” that caused someone to execute a large order for PG, a Dow component at a price in the high 30s when it was trading above 60. Another word out is that someone entered a $16 BILLION trade instead of a $16 million trade – talk about fat fingers. This triggered a lot of stop loss orders in Dow Futures and caused a cascade of losses that at one point reached more than 1000 points on the Dow.
The market whiplashed up to only 350 down before resuming its descent because intraday 9% moves cause casualties i.e. hedge fund liquidations. last I saw, the market traded down to near –500 on the Dow before responding to –400 where it is now.
Error or not, the markets are de-risking and the problem with Greece is creating panic. If anyone has info, send it my way in the comments.
Read more: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/05/what-caused-the-crash.html#ixzz0nBEjDXFD
SMI
NYSE says there was no system error. There are RUMOURS, and RUMOURS only at this point, that there was a fat finger at a major bank and another affecting P&G
NH
least we know what 1987 felt like
JC
Think I do have some Libor btw
SMI
And not seen any reasonable explanation of Accenture
NH
Felix Salmon now opining on the mini crash
PM
Fake Lucasvpraag
I get the feeling we just made a boatload of money today. Is this going to be a problem?
NH
Ah, volatility. Suddenly, at 2:30pm this afternoon, the US stock market decided it was going to fall off a cliff, and the Dow promptly proceeded to drop about 700 points in the space of mere minutes, before bouncing back up. This is pure market craziness: if any journalist tries to blame “worries about Greece” or anything like that, ignore them — insofar as there’s a simple explanation, it’s probably something to do with a dodgy feed on Procter & Gamble’s stock price, which fed directly into the Dow, and caused a brief spell of utter panic.
NH
I suspect that this is only the beginning of a new era of volatility. Markets are a bit like volcanoes, or earthquakes: they’re inherently unpredictable, but if they’re quiet for a while, the magnitude of the next big event is likely to be that much bigger. The trigger for this particular move could have been anything; the lesson to learn is that given the complexity of contemporary financial markets, correlations can pop up anywhere, and a relatively small uptick in something like Portugese CDS spreads can combine with a glitch somewhere in the equity markets to get magnified into an event which wipes out hundreds of billions of dollars in capitalization in the blink of an eye. Or maybe it was the UK election, or a butterfly flapping its wings in Kuala Lumpur: there’s no way of ever knowing.
JC
Bloomberg screen extremely, extremely frazzled but saw 0.37 on Libor
SMI
As soon as we have confirmation on any of the aforementioned ???, we’ll update with posts
NH
Dow now off 328 points
NH
FTSE future off 232 points
PM
So it’s calming down somewhat
NH
Trading error” at major firm blamed for market plunge. CNBC saying someone typed “billion” instead of “million”
PM
There will be dead people under this wreckage
NH
That’s Henry Blodget on Twitter
PM
the reformed broker is citing the fatest finger ever
NH
P&G calling its intraday plunge an issue with electronic exchanges. Didn’t fall below $56 on nyse trading.
SMI
fattest and fastest, shurely
PM
High Frequency Trading, Algorithmic Trading, Fat Finger Errors. Call it whatever you want, we just saw the largest intraday point drop in Dow Jones history, a drop of 998.5 this afternoon. We closed higher, but I’m disgusted.
JC
H Blodget also reminding that 10% today is half of 1987 (20%)
PM
Worth re-iterating that the Dow was in a steep dive before the fat finger struck
PM
Was really accelerating after London closed
SMI
Ah, here’s something I missed earlier r.e. Iceland (and it’s not about ash) – REYKJAVIK, Iceland – Icelandic authorities arrested the former chief executive of collapsed bank Kaupthing on Thursday — the first high profile banker to be detained in the wake of the tiny Nordic country’s financial crisis
JC
Speaking of dives before the supposed fat finger
JC
Terrifying call from AFME I had while we were coming on air
JC
on European bond markets, post Trichet today and Greece in general – but can explain later
PM
Oh yes, can you relay any of that yet?
NH
more rumours coming in
NH
mega bank was supposed to sell 16m of some etf thing
NH
they hit the wrong button
NH
london traders of said megabank
NH
being called back to work
NH
to plan how they limit the damage tomorrow
NH
share price of said megabank
PM
Well, already fallen some way…
PM
Other banks also calling staff back to work in London
NH
we need to put it to them
PM
Calls have gone in this end
NH
right the contracts were eminis
NH
anyone ever traded those
NH
Zerohedge is not buying that
NH
they reckon it is algos
NH
Cnbc blaming this on fat finger is most ridiculous thing ever. 15 billion eminis at once in a ridiclous order Would not even hit consol tape
NH
(HinTat


)
SMI
Nimbus – on the regulatory front, I would expect a flurry of politicians on this tomorrow
SMI
Arid – when and if we have confirmation, we’ll report back. at the moment, it’s all speculation, even if it is all over the place
PM
Got my CDS specialist link up now
PM
US banks are significantly wider
PM
trying to get some firm prices
PM
But the guy seems a tad streched (!)
PM
Closing bell on Wall Street
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
NH
just hit some moralising new reader
JC
From Wall Street Cheat Sheet on CDS btw
JC
IG CDS Index is out 25 bps. Last time I saw a move like that Lehman collapsed
SMI
Alright, bad close – and I have to run because I’ve got to put the Asia 6am Cut together
PM
oh shoot i forgot about that Stacy
SMI
But we will update the site as soon as we have a clearer idea of what happened whe, who did what, and etc
PM
Wil land a hand a bit later
NH
I may be delayed on this
NH
down 234 points at 5,094
SMI
We’ll also be MLing tonight – so see you then
PM
Dow off 348 at the close — 10,519
PM
not sure we mentioned that
JC
Nasdaq is confirming that “a faulty Procter & Gamble stock quote” was a factor in the crash
NH
Look what I am missing out on tonight
NH
Spencer’s do heaving, Stuart Rose, Philip Green, Charles Dunstone, Nick Candy. Tables set with blue rosets for place names
NH
That’s Icap Michael Spender
NH
and his election party
JC
What a shame to miss that
JC
So hang on, just to recap, TWO fat fingers?
NH
could the eminis have not have hit P&G
NH
the bond stuff from earlier
JC
Bootvis – Euro banks liquidity is very very interesting
JC
AFME is Associated Financial Markets in Europe btw, was speaking to them earlier because…
JC
…of chaos in European bond markets, sell-offs etc. in light of Trichet today
JC
Anyway, as they;re saying
JC
We need clarity on the Greek deal – investors are looking for a prospectus. Seniority [of EU/IMF loans] is the big one.
JC
Market sentiments are now behind the ECB buying government bonds on the model of covered bonds [ECB already has a programme for this]. Conversations are taking place with policy makers with a sense of urgency
JC
A common European bond has been an idea floating around for several years. Well, there has been renewed interest in the last few days…
NH
thanks for that here’s the latest CNBC take
NH
According to multiple sources, a trader entered a “b” for billion instead of an “m” for million in a trade possibly involving Procter & Gamble [PG 60.75 -1.41 (-2.27%) ], a component in the Dow. (CNBC’s Jim Cramer noted suspicious price movement in P&G stock on air during the height of the market selloff. Watch.)
The massive selloff, which began shortly after 2 pm ET, amplified concerns about the spreading European debt crisis as the approval of austerity measures by the Greek Parliament sparked renewed rioting in Athens.
“There is simply a growing recognition that Greece has got to default,” banking analyst Dick Bove told CNBC.com. “The riots in the streets showed the decision to repay the debt was not going to be made by the people in Germany, France and Switzerland—it’s going to be made by people in Greece and they’re not going to repay it.”
NH
it’s good old Dick Bove
NH
and another Blodget tweet
NH
Citigroup denies causing market crash
PM
Okay, here’s some prices from Markit — US banks spiked wider
GS 235 (+54)
JPM 125 (+25)
BoA 195 (+44)
MS 232 (+42)
Citi 225 (+38)
Those a big moves
JC
GS CDS higher than Citi though?
NH
The P&G misquote happened when the DJ was already off 600pts
PM
Okay , Alea saying P&G misquote happened at a point when the dow was already off 600 points
NH
in three and half hours and need sleep
NH
otherwise I could be on ML for 12 hours
JC
Me too, thanks for updates NH
NH
(Joseph are you in the office?)
JC
I can get down there if needed
NH
no worries I need a password for the assanka laptop
Cracking little software shop who built FT Alphaville
PM
Okay — gonna wind this up now
PM
reminder — we are back on at 12.30am — with an post election special
JC
AN Other Hedgie – joseph.cotterill@ft.com email details pls
PM
Lorcan — 6am Asia Cut comes out in hour and 45
SMI
(PS – just on CDS and GS being wider than Citi – that’s accurate, both CMA and Markit have been quoting it as such for about 2 days)
PM
FT higher-ups would freak out
PM
Not that we don’t trust you or anything…
PM
We will be back later tho
PM
12.30 — so do join us again to discuss the election result
PM
And, for those who havent joined us before — there is a daily chat hosted by Neil at 11am
PM
r these emergency sessions you can get on our exclusive email notification list
PM
Just email alphaville@ft.com — and say Sign me up for emergency session
SMI
(yes, and CC me – stacy-marie.ishmael@ft.com)
PM
Thanks for the stunning stream of comments over on the right
PM
In the meantime, thanks for joining us!