April, 2010
Fabulous Fab’s disciplinary record and those love emails
Some industrious fellow has uploaded Fabrice Tourre’s FINRA record onto Scribd.
A taster of the data — current as of Sunday, April 18, 2010:
Fabulous Fab’s love emails, meanwhile, can be reviewed in their full sickly detail here (including French-English translation) courtesy of the New York Times and the Telegraph.
Restructuring the Parthenon
Oh dear — all that hefty repricing action on Greek short-term bond issues on Monday. Nasty. Looks like some in the market have started to price in the prospect of Greece restructuring its debt in spite (or part) of the Eurozone rescue activated on Friday.
About those hung parliament fears…
…. part XII of an increasingly regular series.
And Monday finds the yield on the 10-year gilt below 4 per cent.
Somebody tell Kenneth Clarke.
In fact, someone tell the former chancellor to have a look at this desk note from RBS:
Hedge funds are starting to use ETFs in Europe
The number of hedge funds and sophisticated investors using exchange traded funds to execute their strategies in Europe rose substantially in the first quarter, industry experts have told FT Alphaville.
‘Some horrendous Keynesian/monetarist nightmare’
Bob Janjuah is back and in his latest note we find the RBS strategist in reflective mood.
Maybe its the return of sunshine, maybe its because I have moved back into my lovely ‘new’ home after 6mths of renting &
UBS and its 1,350 S&P target
That’s right — the equity market recovery/rebound/dead cat bounce (delete as appropriate) has got further to run, UBS says.
The reason? “A more constructive view on earnings”, according to the Swiss bank:
Markets Live transcript 26 Apr 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:17 on 26 Apr 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHhola NHIt’s 11.03am NHand time for Markets Live
Greek 2-year bond yield rises above 13 per cent
Greek bond yields were moving higher on Monday, despite the country’s activation of an EU/IMF aid package on Friday.
From Reuters:
RTRS – GREEK/GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SPREAD RISES TO 663 BPS,
[Abacus] More Goldman voyeurism
It is, as the Guardian noted on Monday morning, a topsy-turvy world when Goldman Sachs takes to bragging about its losses at the height of the mortgage crisis.
But we are, where we are, and over the weekend Goldman released another batch of emails in response to a selection published by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee.
Sterilising Chinese inflows
Standard Chartered analysts have put out a note on Monday stressing their concerns about hot money flows into emerging markets.
As they observe:
A problem is brewing across much of the emerging world.
EURUSD – the ‘slow-bleed restructuring scenario’
On Thursday, RBS strategist Jacques Cailloux declared: ‘a Greek default would be tantamount to the end of the euro’.
On Friday, his colleagues weighed in with more detail on their views on Greece’s “treble trouble”,
Further reading
- For and against a Greek debt restructuring.
- This time wasn’t different.
- Goldman as market maker. Oh really?
- SEC v Goldman: don’t cry for yield junkies.
- An Abacus 2007-AC1 time line.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Wolfgang Münchau: Greece is Europe’s very own subprime crisis
This is going to be the most important week in the 11-year history of Europe’s monetary union,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Emerson Electric goes public with £723m/275p a share cash offer for Chloride – statement.
- Bank of Ireland announces fully underwritten “market based proposals to raise”
FTfm on AV
Highlights from Monday’s FTfm.
Banks oil wheels of ETP market
Barclays is joining other banks wagering on strong growth in the European market for exchange traded products. Barclays is launching a range of exchange traded notes and Morgan Stanley will create units in ETFs specifically for the purpose of lending them to hedge funds.
Goldman responds – ‘A humbling experience for every participant…’
Here’s Goldman Sachs’ response to accusations levelled by the Senate subcommittee on investigations earlier on Saturday. There’s 12 pages of prose and accompanying charts here. Messrs Blankfein, Cohn,
The Goldman emails
Some financial voyeurism for the weekend – the Senate permanent subcommittee on investigations, having concluded an 18-month-long investigation into Goldman Sachs’s mortgage-related dealings, has now published eight pages of internal Goldman emails.
Greece and the issue of sovereign TBTF
Do the German bloggers fuming about US hedge funds and other assorted speculators seemingly landing Germany with an €8.4bn Greek bailout bill realise that this is just for the current year?
From Tagesschau,
CDS report: Market still sees significant near-term risks to Greece
Here in the credit markets we’re becoming used to political fireworks on a Friday. Those hoping for a quiet end to the week have been disappointed; the sovereign credit markets tending to display more than a modicum of volatility.
Why doesn’t the UK Treasury like covered bonds?
The UK Treasury waded into the “are covered bonds a good liquidity buffer for banks?” debate on Friday.
EuroWeek’s The Cover reported the ministry’s feelings were that the bonds — largely deemed to be among the safest securities in the world — were not actually an acceptable asset.
Debt markets to UK politicians: go hang
And the winner of Thursday’s second British prime ministerial debate was… er, pass.
At least we’re getting clearer on who isn’t losing from poll indications that the May 6 election will produce a hung parliament*:
Modern day Europe
Related links:
Greece asks for EU-IMF aid – FT Alphaville
Careless talk costs… – FT Alphaville
First thoughts on Greek aid activation
Greece moved to activate an EU-IMF aid package on Friday — and initial comments from analysts flew into the FT Alphaville inbox.
In the first instance, though, it’s worth pointing out that the news came as a bit of a surprise to the EU Commission,
Euro resuscitation
What a difference a Greek kiss of life makes, after Thursday’s euro rout. Can it last?
Markets Live transcript 23 Apr 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:08 on 23 Apr 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHWe are starting early today NHas important news is breaking
Greece asks for EU-IMF aid
Greece’s prime minister requested to activate contingency loans from the IMF and Eurozone states on Friday, after an awful Thursday in the bond markets. The IMF mission in Athens also released advice on deficit cutting.
Reflections on the Greek melt down
It was hard to miss Greece’s blow-up in the debt markets on Thursday.
Well, where to from there? First up, it’s Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, who says these are pivotal weeks for the market:
The fact
UK Q1 GDP rises 0.2% on quarter, misses forecasts
Analysts had been expecting a 0.4 per cent rise in UK GDP in the first quarter.
On Friday, however, the UK Office of National Statistics reported (via Reuters):
RTRS-UK PRELIM Q1 GDP +0.2% QQ, -0.3% YY (CONSENSUS +0.4% QQ,
How to short a volcano
Data Explorers, specialists in the tracking of short interest, on Thursday published a report on how investors sought to profit from the fallout of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano.
Here are their ‘observations in market sentiment over six days of closed airspace’,