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Markets Live transcript 26 Apr 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 11:17 on 26 Apr 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
hola
NH
It’s 11.03am
NH
and time for Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily foxtrot around the market
NH
Bryce is here
BE
Hello.
NH
hello
NH
So Greece continues to melt down
NH
RTRS-GREEK 2-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD RISES ABOVE 13 PERCENT FROM NEAR 11 PCT AT FRIDAY’S CLOSE -TRADEWEB
NH
RTRS-GREEK/GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SPREAD RISES TO 663 BPS, HIGHEST SINCE FEB 1998
NH
but…
NH
the FTSE 100 is up
NH
28 points at 5,752
NH
it hit 5,800 earlier
BE
I know I know I know I know I know I know I know I know …..
BE
can’t explain it
BE
it’s madness
BE
can nothing stop this bull market?
NH
it would seem not
NH
not even the fact that the Greek situation is now reaching its end game
BE
Indeed.
NH
apparently the yield on that two year note is now nearer 14%
BE
Yikes
BE
That’s absurd.
BE
So everyone seems to have reached the conclusion that some sort of restructuring is inevitable
BE
there’s no other way out
NH
that looks to be the view
NH
actually
NH
Gary Jenkins at Evo Securities
NH
had a really good piece on the Greece situation out today
NH
summed things up really well
NH
Is a restructuring likely? The amounts available to Greece under the EU/IMF rescue package as it stands is between €40bn-€45bn depending on the size of IMF funding, although the EU has left open the possibility of further financial assistance in 2011 and 2012. Greece has said it needs to borrow €43bn in 2010, we would add €2bn to that figure based on yesterday’s revised deficit numbers. So far this year Greece has raised €18bn from bond issuance, leaving it short of €27bn that needs to be financed over the rest of the year. The funding requirement over the next two years will be at least as high as this year’s as higher redemption payments offset the planned reduction in the deficit.
NH
EU/IMF funding is only sufficient for about one year, and unless the amount made available to Greece is increased significantly (and the political will to do this looks limited) and/or market sentiment does a U-turn, a restructuring looks like a necessity. Recent sovereign restructurings (1998-2005) have seen haircuts ranging from about 13% (Uruguay 2003) to 74% (Argentina 2005 exchange) according to an IMF study, but these were the outliers and most of the restructurings saw haircuts of between 25 and 55 percent. The concern for the market is that if Greece were to restructure it may encourage others to do the same in which case it becomes a race to default.
NH
so haircuts all round
NH
but here’s the good news
NH
such as it is
NH
Spain and Ireland came into the crisis with much lower debt levels than Greece and therefore have more room for manoeuvre, although very high deficits/GDP ratios of 11.2% and 14.3% (2009) respectively is of concern. At the end of 2009 the debt/GDP ratio of Greece stood at 115.1%, Spain at 53.2%, Ireland at 64% and Portugal at 76.8%. Italy has a higher debt/GDP ratio at 115.8%, but has (apart from last year) been running a primary budget surplus. However if Greece were to restructure its debt then the actual economic numbers probably become less important for other countries than the potential reduction of confidence which could have a major impact upon sovereigns ability to borrow
BE
And that’s the good news?
NH
yep
NH
anyway
NH
none of that is likely to derail the equity market
NH
that just keeps running
NH
Have you seen this UBS note
NH
they are targeting 1,350 on the S&P 500
BE
What?
BE
That’s against Friday’s close of 1,217?
NH
yep
BE
Er …. Why?
NH
and the market is going to be driven higher on the back corporate earnings
NH
they are rising
NH
and it’s not all about cost cutting
NH
so the market is going to keep on running
NH
Over the past several months, economic activity and earnings results have come in
better than expected. As a result, we are increasing our 2010 and 2011 S&P 500
operating EPS estimates to $90 and $100, respectively, from $83 and $92. 2010
EPS improvement should be driven by margin expansion and easy comps. 2011
should be more of a revenue story.
NH
Our 1,350 price target is based solely on our more constructive views on earnings
and does not represent a re-rating of stocks. Specifically, our year-end 2010 price
target is based on forward multiple of 13.5x applied to $100 of 2011 earnings.
NH
With respect to valuation, we expect multiples to hold their ground in the face of
rapidly improving earnings through the remainder of the year. As such, our
year-end price target is based upon a forward P/E multiple of 13.5x applied to
our 2011 EPS estimate of $100.
BE
Hang on – what? Earnings are beating in 2010 ….
BE
So they’ll keep beating in 2011 on “easy comparisons”?
BE
Um …………….
NH
well, leading indicators aren’t about to roll over
NH
the US econony is going
NH
and the S&P is a geared play, apparently
NH
We do not expect leading indicators to rollover anytime soon. Our U.S.
economics team believes that, as the improvement in some leading indicators
(i.e., interest rate spreads and new orders) begins to wane, the labor-related
components of the index (i.e., manufacturing hours and initial claims) will
continue to improve.
NH
With over one-third of the S&P 500 companies having reported 1Q10 results,
the pattern of beats appears to be playing out in a similar fashion to last quarter.
Our sense is that analysts’ estimates will continue to lag behind fundamentals
and will surprise throughout the remainder of the year. Importantly, we
believe that our Street-high earnings estimates are consistent with the level
of recent earnings surprises.
NH
that’s what’s fuelling this rally
NH
views like that
BE
Hm.
BE
Returning to elephant in the room for a moment
NH
news flash
NH
RTRS-GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL TO MAKE STATEMENT ON GREECE AT 1300 GMT
BE
Huge note out of BarCap on Greece this morning
BE
Which will hopefully find its way into the usual place
BE
But here’s a taster
BE
Too early to restructure
BE
Greece’s ‘solvency’ challenge remains formidable. A primary fiscal balance adjustment in the order of 13% of GDP over the next four to five years is needed, under adverse circumstances (demographics, competitiveness, reform resistance).

An EU-IMF support package of EUR45bn would only fill liquidity needs of the first year. A multi-year package of EUR90bn could provide Greece the breathing space to implement the fiscal adjustment.

BE
Markets are very far from pricing the plausible recovery values (<50%) that would potentially apply in a Greek debt restructuring. Even such large debt haircuts would still require substantial fiscal adjustments to restore solvency. Greek’s main problem is the huge structural fiscal deficit, even more than the stock of debt per-se.

As the contagion risk of a debt restructuring at this point could be significant, it is irrational for the EU and the IMF to push Greece into any restructuring early on as part of its bailout package – even if a restructuring cannot be excluded at a later point. Liquidity-focused exchanges of short-dated for longer-dated bonds would not help much and could even worsen solvency.

BE
We believe the EU authorities and the IMF are likely to follow this logic, but the uncertainty remains high. This suggests to us that it is still very risky to hold Greek debt. The Greek debt problem remains a marathon not a sprint.
BE
Lots of terrifying cliff-like graphs in there. Worth a read.
NH
wouldn’t mind having a look at that later on
NH
but we should push on and look at the markets
11:14AM
NH
and if you though the FTSE 100 was doing well today
NH
have a look at the FTSE 250
NH
that really is flying
NH
up 135 points at 10,737
NH
that’s 1.3%
BE
Ah. Right. The “more UK-focused FTSE 250″
NH
yes
BE
The barometer of the UK
NH
outperforming the more international FTSE 100 AGAIN
NH
and the reason
NH
is another bid
NH
and also
NH
some rather good earnings statements from mid cap engineers
NH
things like
NH
Weir and Cookson
NH
but let’s look at the latest bid approach for a UK company
NH
some how I doubt this one will have Mandy spluttering into his cornflakes
BE
(Mike – I’m a wee bit busy right now, but try after midday)
BE
This is Chloride of course
BE
Which, despite sounding like something medical, does uninteruptable power supplies.
NH
yeah, thrilling stuff
NH
but the story here is that
NH
Emerson have returned
NH
almost two years since they walked away
NH
with an offer of more or less the same level
NH
unsurprisingly that has been kicked into touch by the management
NH
who won’t engage with the bidder
NH
but the share price is flying
Chloride Group PLC (CHLD:LSE): Last: 294.10, up 85.1 (+40.72%), High: 303.90, Low: 294.10, Volume: 9.89m
BE
Well, it’s only the same level if you ignore the GBK’s depreciation
BE
Factor in the dollar and it’s about 15 or 20 per cent below the previous bid I think.
NH
so far from generous
NH
and Cholride is trading through the terms
NH
almost 300p
NH
vs offer of 275p pls 3 dividend
BE
And Chloride have issued a “get stuffed” statement quite quickly.
BE
Chloride confirms that it received an approach from Emerson on Friday 23 April
2010, regarding a possible offer for the Company at 275 pence per share in cash. The
approach is subject to a number of pre-conditions, including due diligence and the
unanimous recommendation of the Board of Chloride.
The Board confirms that it held discussions in 2008 with Emerson with regard to a
270 pence per share offer and this offer was rejected as it undervalued the Company.
BE
Since Emerson’s approach in 2008, Chloride has continued to develop the business
and its strategy, both organically and through acquisition, and the Board believes the
Company has better prospects as result of the steps that it has taken in this regard.
Accordingly, the Board of Chloride considers that this latest offer proposal from
Emerson continues to significantly undervalue the Company and accordingly rejects
it.
There is no certainty that any offer for the Company will be forthcoming nor as to the
terms of any such offer.
NH
hmmm
NH
So the question is
NH
does Emerson come back
NH
and I reckon they do
NH
clearly, the company wants Chloride
NH
and I think five shareholders control 35% of the company
NH
Threadneedle, Mondrian, F&C, L&G, Blackrock
BE
And there are other sharks in the tank, of course.
NH
indeed
BE
Eaton, most likely.
NH
but none as a big as Emerson
BE
True.
NH
not sure what shareholders want
NH
I have heard a few of the smaller insitutions
NH
have been selling out around the 300p level this morning
NH
but for management to agree I reckon we have to be talking
NH
320p or 330p
NH
anyway
NH
we have plenty of comment on this
NH
while the ROTR debate the attractions of AIM
NH
this is from RBS
NH
US conglomerate Emerson has announced an indicative all-cash proposal of 275p per share, the same level as their previous bid in June 2008. We expect the Chloride Board to reject this offer, although do not rule out a deal at a higher price given the strategic attractions of the deal.

NH
275p at the same level as June 08 bid
The return of Emerson is unsurprising given the CEO’s appetite for acquisitions and Emerson’s desire to strengthen its European business. The indicative bid of 275p is at the same level as the previously rejected bid in June 2008 although significantly lower in US dollar terms given sterling weakness ($2 exchange rate at time of previous bid vs $1.54 currently). The bid represents a 34% premium to last Thursday’s closing price.
NH
275p at the same level as June 08 bid
The return of Emerson is unsurprising given the CEO’s appetite for acquisitions and Emerson’s desire to strengthen its European business. The indicative bid of 275p is at the same level as the previously rejected bid in June 2008 although significantly lower in US dollar terms given sterling weakness ($2 exchange rate at time of previous bid vs $1.54 currently). The bid represents a 34% premium to last Thursday’s closing price.
NH
and this is from Seymour Pierce
NH
The last time Emerson walked away it was at 270p. If we reverse out the indicative implied cost savings at that time we get a figure of £22.4m (see our note dated 8 May 2009), add this (taxed at 30%) to give £15.7m net gains then the earnings number Emerson could be looking at is 17.5p – applying Emerson’s 19.6x PER (Mar 11 calculated) to that suggests a walk away price this time of 343p
NH
Obviously much has changed between June 2008 and now (e.g. the recession ongoing in Europe), Chloride’s cost savings push, the build up of Chloride’s industrials business, the increased output from Chloride’s JV with Eaton) that could add or subtract from this figure but it is, we believe a reasonable stating point. We believe that Emerson could pay beyond the 300p level and so we move to a BUY (Sell since 7 October 2009) recommendation with a 300p share price target – accepting that there remains a possibility that the bid may once again not materialise.
BE
Ok – and here’s Numis, making similar arguments on valuation.
BE
Numis view: A bid of 275p values Chloride at 15x FY’11 (Mar y/e) EBITDA and 24x
EPS. Historical industry take-out multiples have been as high as 30x prospective EPS
and this would value Chloride at nearer £900m or 340p per share. Importantly, given
the weaker sterling environment, this offer is c.$1.1bn in value vs. the offer value of
$1.3bn back in May/June 2008, representing a 15% discount. Strategically, this makes
perfect sense as a combined entity would give c.25% global UPS market share, on a
par with Schneider the largest UPS player. We believe a counter bid from Eaton Corp
could follow but there will be too many anti-trust issues for Schneider. Emerson has a
track record of acquisitions of this size and this deal could be immediately earnings
enhancing.
BE
Valuation: Pre-announcement, the shares were trading on 18.7x CY’10 which is at the
top end of the sector range. We believe Chloride is a long term structural growth story
and the current bid will support a share price of nearly 300p, our new target price.
NH
Good morning Monty
NH
always good to have your imput
NH
limited interloper risk
NH
fair point
BE
It is. This is the same shareholder group that backed management to block the bid last time.
NH
I see
NH
and thoughts on valuation Monty?
NH
I have some figures
BE
Go on.
NH
via Olivetree
NH
Strategic attractions of the deal for Emerson are compelling
The indicative bid equates to an EV/EBITA of 17.7x our FY11 forecasts. This premium valuation reflects the strategic nature of the deal for Emerson who have been keen for some time to strengthen their European presence. We note previous transactions have been in the range 12-29x EBITA. In light of the strategic importance to Emerson and recent trading at Chloride, we expect Chloride’s
Board to reject the current offer

NH
right
NH
let’s leave the mid cap space for a bit
NH
although we can come back and look at Weir
NH
Cookson
NH
if anyone is interested
11:26AM
NH
So, higher up the corporate ladder
NH
what’s moving Bryce?
BE
Well, I guess we should look at the banks
BE
Motoring yet again
NH
(Midlander – profit taking and negative Jefferies note)
NH
so they are
Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS:LSE): Last: 58.35, up 2.55 (+4.57%), High: 58.35, Low: 56.40, Volume: 83.95m
Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LLOY:LSE): Last: 70.85, up 2.37 (+3.46%), High: 70.86, Low: 69.10, Volume: 104.48m
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 373.25, up 10.95 (+3.02%), High: 373.85, Low: 367.45, Volume: 23.13m
NH
Q1 reporting season kicks off this week
NH
and hopes are high
BE
They are
BE
And there are plenty of notes knocking around to bolster the optimism.
NH
which has a trading statement due tomorrow
BE
Here’s Merrill with a preview
BE
Which starts with the elephant
BE
Lloyds/UK Banks – Gilts disconnect/Trading statement next week
In a day when Greek bond yields continue to blow out and move through 10%, it
is interesting to read in the Financial Times that UK gilt yields tightened as
investors sought safe havens. A look at Bloomberg shows that 10-year gilts have
been relatively stable for the whole of April. There is another article in the paper
writing up comments from the senior UK analyst at Moody’s, suggesting that a
hung parliament might actually be good news for the UK deficit fighting
creditability. Separately, Lloyds announced a RMBS the other day and is currently
marketing the transaction, without a so-called “put” option.
BE
Lloyds (LLOY LN, 66.5p, Buy, 85p PO) kicks off the trading statements next
week, with an IMS on the 27th. In keeping with previous statements, we would
expect it to be heavy on words and light on numbers, but confirm the positive
trends highlighted at the start of March and confirmed when we saw Eric Daniels
just before Easter. Remember he was talking about rising revenues, falling costs
and “relatively benign” bad debts.
We continue to think that Lloyds will see c.£3.5bn of U/L PBT in 2010. Whilst
consensus has increased it is still too low at c.£1bn. We increasing feel that
Lloyds will be profitable in 1H10, let alone FY10 and that a constant drip of
consensus upgrades will drive the share price as we move through 2010 and into
2011 – BUY.
BE
That’s from Michael Helsby
NH
and there was something knocking about on Barclays too
NH
I think
BE
Yup – from Citigroup
BE
Leigh Goodwin
BE
Looking for 1Q10e EPS of 9.4p — We expect Barclays to report 1Q10 EPS of 9.4p
in its IMS due for release on 30 April. This would represent a y-o-y rise of 22% on
1Q09. We forecast 1Q10e PBT of GBP1.84bn, made up of revenues of GBP8.9bn,
net insurance claims of GBP-0.21bn, costs of GBP5.07bn, and impairments of
GBP1.78bn.
 Lower credit market write-downs the real profit driver — The underlying driver of
the forecast y-o-y rise in PBT is a significant fall in credit market write-downs,
both through income and impairments. Excluding these, the non-recurrence of the
GBP279m fair value gain on own debt taken in 1Q09, and our 1Q09e estimate for
BGI, we estimate group revenues fell by around GBP400m driven by an estimated
reduction in Barclays Capital top-line revenues of GBP600m. We estimate the
1Q10e loan impairment charge to be almost identical to the 1Q09 charge.
BE
Barclays Capital 1Q10e PBT of around GBP1.5bn — We expect Barclays Capital to
have been the main profit contributor to the group’s 1Q10e earnings, generating
PBT of around GBP1.5bn (an estimated 80% of the group total) compared with
GBP907m in 1Q09 (66% of the group, or 73% excluding BGI). This would
represent a y-o-y rise of 64% in Barclays Capital profits. Excluding Barclays
Capital and estimated BGI profits of c.GBP135m in 1Q09, the remaining
continuing businesses will have seen a 7% rise in profits from GBP330m to
GBP353m.
BE
Barclays Capital 1Q10e top-line revenue of GBP4.4bn, FY10e GBP16.5bn — We
are looking for Barclays Capital’s top-line revenue to be around GBP4.4bn,
compared with the figure of just over GBP5bn disclosed by the company for 1Q09
in the 1Q09 IMS. We expect FICC to have contributed c.GBP3.2bn, or 73% of the
total, down on the 75% disclosed for 1H09 (which we believe was a higher
proportion for 1Q09 alone). The other key features of Barclays Capital’s
performance in 1Q10e will be, we believe, a significant reduction in credit and fair
value of own debt changes, and a reduction in the cost/net income ratio from 75%
in 1H09 to 62%in 1Q10e. This would be below the ‘lower half of the 65-75%
target range’ guided by the company for FY10. We believe there has been a stepdown
in the cost/net income ratios of Barclays Capital.
BE
Consensus earnings forecasts have to rise, we believe — Based on the latest
company-supplied consensus, disclosed by the company on 23 April 2010, we are
13% ahead of consensus PBT and 20% ahead of consensus EPS for FY10e. We
are 5% and 11% ahead of consensus for FY11e profits and EPS, respectively.
NH
thanks for that
NH
as with the FY figs
NH
the things to look out for
NH
will be bad debt charges
NH
and margins
NH
of course Lloyds put out a surprise trading statement in March
NH
so there shouldn’t be any massive surprises
NH
but then again
NH
share prices aren’t a million miles from where they were last August
NH
and the outlook does look rather brighter
BE
As opposed to in Ireland.
NH
yes
NH
Bank of Ireland restructuring out today
NH
lot’s of parts to it
BE
€500mn placing with instituions
NH
that’s happening at the moment
NH
Citigroup doing it over here I think
NH
EUR1.53 is the pricing
BE
Which implies 327m new shares
BE
Then there’s €1bn to the government at €1.8
BE
(576mn new shares)
BE
And …..
BE
Up to €1.89bn with a rights issue
NH
the upshot of which is that the government’s stake rises slightly I think, to around 36%
NH
fairly complicated stuff
NH
and the shares
NH
small down on it
NH
off 5.2% at EUR1.71
NH
there’s also a trading update
NH
burried in all of this
NH
somewhere
BE
Which is rather weak, I think, although obvously somewhat overshadowed
NH
do we have any comment for the Irish contingent over on the right?
BE
Yup. Here’s JP Morgan
BE
If executed under these guidelines, these proposals imply the
government would end up with a c.35% stake in BKIR, slightly below
our initial 39% estimate. We believe a minority government stake was
widely discounted by the market in BKIR’s case, with AIB offering more
doubts on that front.
BE
The abovementioned structure is largely in line with our original
expectations, and hence our main financial conclusions are unchanged (i)
we expect BKIR’s core equity ratio to bottom in 11E at c.7% as the bank
remains in loss making territory in 10/11E (with our estimates including a
higher 10.25% coupon on the outstanding €2.5bn preference shares), (ii)
TBV of c.€4.0bn over 10-12E, as we exclude the remaining preference
shares and reverse only 50% of BKIR’s pension deficit and none of the
AFS negative reserve (full reversal of both would add €1.4bn to that BV
figure). With a new share count of c.3.8bn (vs. original 1.19bn), this throws
a TBVS of €1.1 in 10E, suggesting the stock is trading on fully adjusted
1.2x PTBV in 10E, expensive in light of our subdued earnings prospects.
Note table below excludes any impact from asset disposals, though
conclusions should not be materially altered.
BE
IMS – BKIR has also provided the market with its Q1 IMS, where it guides
towards a weaker NII to result from the low interest rate environment,
further deposit competition, higher wholesale funding costs and low
levels of new business activities (flat lending volumes and weaker
deposits). To offset this, BoI continues to expect further cost savings and
benefits from asset disposals. Asset quality wise, management reaffirmed
the guidance of €4.7bn impairment charges for the 3 year period to
March 2011, which compares to our c.€5.7bn estimate. Overall, no
material changes vs. recent management comments, and hence our
estimates are likely to remain largely unchanged, though with potential
mix changes (lower top line, lower loan losses). We note again the need
to incorporate a c.€250mn annual cost derived from preference share
coupons, which will be paid in cash or shares as seen earlier this year.
BE
Overall, we retain our UW call on BKIR following today’s news, as we
feel most of the stock’s improved visibility regarding NAMA and its
recapitalization needs has been anticipated by the market as highlighted in
the stock’s strong YTD run. From here, especially given the stock’s abovebook
valuation levels, we believe a more tangible improvement of the
bank’s fundamentals is needed to sustain recent performance. Medium-term,
we believe a constructive equity story can be built around BKIR, but we
believe current share prices offer little scope for additional rerating in the
short term
BE
Actually, that’ll do.
BE
Bored with banks.
BE
Let’s liven things up with a bit of smallcap corner.
11:38AM
NH
Yes
NH
this has been annoying me for a while
NH
a company called Niche
NH
chaired by Christopher Stainforth
NH
who you remember from the Blue Arrow scandal
NH
and also
NH
as the boss of Durlacher
NH
the late, lamented Durlacher
NH
anyway
NH
he’s is chairman of this thing
NH
and since it emerged that the guy who founded Circle OIl
NH
has taken a stake this cash shell has gone moon bound
BE
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
BE
So it’s trading a squiz over 4p this morning.
NH
it is
NH
on April 20th
NH
it was trading at 0.375
NH
explain that
NH
AIM madness
BE
!
BE
It’s a shell, right?
BE
It’s a shell.
NH
it is
NH
trying to check how much cash it has
NH
but that move
NH
surely that can’t be justified
NH
it’s not as Circle Oil
NH
has been a massive success
NH
I mean it’s not a Gulf Keystone
BE
So. Capped at £7m. No assets.
BE
A £7m management team.
NH
so this thing has cash of £55,000
NH
and a £7m market cap
NH
this ex Circle Oil needs to be good
NH
here’s the announcement that sparked the whole thinng off
NH
Niche, the AIM listed equity investment company, is delighted to announce the appointment of John McKeon as a Consultant with immediate effect. The board considers that Mr McKeon’s extensive track record of value creation, particularly within the natural resources industries, will greatly assist Niche in identifying investment opportunities.

Mr McKeon is extremely well connected, at government and ministerial level, with most of the oil and gas ministries in North Africa and the Middle East.

A founding shareholder and former executive director of Circle Oil plc, Mr McKeon was instrumental in building the international oil and gas exploration and production company with assets spanning Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Oman and Namibia. Today Circle Oil plc is a prominent gas producer in Morocco and counts Libya Oil Holdings among its substantial shareholders.

Mr McKeon is also a founding shareholder of IM Minerals, an exploration company with licences over titanium dioxide prospects in Mozambique.

The directors of Niche welcome John McKeon and are excited by the deal experience that he brings to the table. Mr McKeon (through Old Church Street Holdings Limited) and associates have recently acquired a 26.64% interest in the Company.

BE
So. Mr McKeon as well.
NH
presumably they must have another deal lined up
NH
given the share price move
BE
Not, one would assume, paid for with cash
NH
obviously not
NH
one would look to pay
NH
with grossly overrated paper
BE
Hm.
NH
although
NH
not before it hits 10p
NH
anyway
NH
one to watch this one
NH
we haven’t had a good hype stock for a while
NH
not since GKP
NH
went quiet
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd (GKP:LSE): Last: 81.25, down 0.75 (-0.91%), High: 82.25, Low: 81.00, Volume: 718.74k
NH
right
NH
while we are in small cap corner
NH
I guess we should have a quick look at
NH
Regal Petroleum
NH
results out
NH
and another change of strategy
NH
all getting rather tedious
Regal Petroleum Plc (RPT:LSE): Last: 52.75, down 1 (-1.86%), High: 57.50, Low: 52.25, Volume: 3.63m
BE
New strategy? The’re going to look for oil now?
NH
who knows
NH
but what I do know
NH
is that the sector watcher is none too impressed
NH
Regal published its FY09 results headlined by a net loss of $10m and $118m net cash in the bank. That said the negative point comes from the guidance with the appraisal of the T and D-sands being deferred “to allow further work to be undertaken in the assessment of the most effective method of appraising” the Ts and the Ds. Regal says it will now focus on the B sands which are insufficient to hit the initial production target.
NH
As a reminder, the SV-58 well, which spudded at the end of February 2009 and must have cost tens of millions of dollars by now, is only producing 800 boe/d which brings total output to 2.5k boe/d, 15% below management’s end-2009 target of “over 3,000” boe/d.
NH
. Bottom line: I don’t see any immediate catalyst to get the shares moving and with the upside from the T and the D-sands pushed back until further notice the stock is in “show-me” mode. Additionally, Frank Timis’ trust sold 3.6m shares last week. To play Ukraine I prefer the lower-risk JKX Oil & Gas that the market oversold last week on the back of the Ukraine-Russia gas deal. I attached a note detailing his view on JKX. In the meantime, I would stay away from Regal. SELL
BE
And, in the interests of balance
BE
here’s something positive
BE
from Merrill
BE
which continue to love Regal
BE
Results in line, near-term focus shifted to cash flows
Regal Petroleum has this morning reported a 2009 net loss of US$10mn, in line
with our expectations. The key takeaway was the management’s decision to shift
its near-term focus to cash flows and therefore to development of the shallower
B-Sands (and not deeper T and D sands) in Ukraine to target increased gas
production. Although we recognise Regal’s increased financial risk profile due to
lower than expected volumes and a 30% reduction in the Ukrainian/Russian
border gas price, we believe that with US$90mn in cash and zero debt, the
company is in a position to finance its near term capex programme.
BE
New strategy not a surprise
Regal announced that the next 4 Ukrainian wells to be drilled and completed in
2009 (SV-61, SV-66 and 2 new wells) will target shallower B-sands. Appraisal of
the deeper T and D-Sands will be carried out only on one well – the results from
MEX-106 well are due within 3 months. This decision does not come as a
surprise to us given the company’s increased focus on cash flows and the
challenges faced by Regal in drilling to the deeper sections in the wells on the SV
field. Assuming that the strategy is applied only near term, NAV impact should be
marginally negative due to lower production rates partly offset by shorter drilling
times.
NH
amazing how Regal seems to limp on
BE
Yup. It is.
BE
While on the explorers ….
BE
Some people on the right seem to want an update on Friday’s Friday-ish raw on Dana
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
Dana Petroleum PLC (DNX:LSE): Last: 1,283, up 6 (+0.47%), High: 1,305, Low: 1,274, Volume: 80.09k
BE
Here’s what an OMV flak told Bloomberg
BE
“There is no substance to this rumour,” Michaela Huber, a
spokeswoman for OMV in Vienna, said in an e-mailed statement.
BE
So, that’s that.
NH
yes
NH
the backstory here
NH
is that the RAW was stale
NH
something that was considered
NH
but on longer on the menu
NH
but rather like Chloride
NH
that doesn’t mean that it won’t be dish du jour
NH
one day
11:50AM
NH
Right
NH
let’s have a look at the housebuilders
NH
most of which are up
Barratt Developments PLC (BDEV:LSE): Last: 137.50, up 5.6 (+4.25%), High: 140.70, Low: 133.40, Volume: 8.02m
Persimmon PLC (PSN:LSE): Last: 511.00, up 12.7 (+2.55%), High: 520.00, Low: 501.00, Volume: 830.87k
Taylor Wimpey Plc (TW.:LSE): Last: 44.82, up 0.83 (+1.89%), High: 46.34, Low: 43.85, Volume: 19.52m
NH
no
NH
this on the back of news that Hugh Osmond’s new vehicle
NH
has approached Crest Nicholson
NH
with an offer
NH
Crest is owned by its lenders
NH
Lloyds
NH
NOw
NH
I can’t see this deal happening
NH
because having taking one big write down on Crest
NH
the banks are being asked to take another
NH
so that Osmond can play vulture
NH
why should they do it
NH
what’s in it for them
NH
and surely there can’t be any read across for the other housebuilders
BE
You may well say that
BE
Deutsche thinks the opposite.
NH
(XWAP – we make the decisions round here. this isn’t a democracy)
BE
Here’s their morning comment.
NH
really
NH
why
BE
1) Such a bid would highlight the value available from land acquisitions.
Our positive stance on the UK House builders is based on the view
that a structural improvement in gross margins will be seen in the sector
driven by the contribution of higher margin land acquisitions. Reports of investors
looking to enter the land market add credibility to the thesis. Based
on margin leverage to new land acquisitions and the value opportunity
our top picks in the sector are Barrratt, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey.
BE
2) The start of consolidation in the sector. As part of this deal it is reported
that Horizon would require a committment from the banks that it would
consider to sell them other property firms and land portfolios. In such a
fragmented industry we see consolidation as positive, and this report may
further increase speculation of greater consolidation in the industry.
BE
3) Sufficient land is available on open market to drive sector margin
improvement. Horizon’s potential ‘first call’ on the other land held by the
banks could restrict the land available to other players. However to date the
industry has indicated that there is sufficient land on the open market to
satisify their land buying requirements. Also we note that it has been reported
that the land value held by just Lloyds (£5.4bn Sep 09) is significantly
greater than the reported £3bn spending power of Horizon for all its deals
(across a variety of sectors).
NH
well I suppose it does put a value on land
NH
but that’s it
BE
Actually, everyone’s crediting this to the Sunday Times, but it was our colleagues at DealReporter who broke this story on Friday.
NH
it was
NH
that’s very cheeky to claim that
NH
don’t they realise people have access to the internet
NH
hang on
NH
they had some terms didn’t they?
BE
Hang on – will just dig out the original story
NH
thanks
NH
will help put things into perspective
NH
hopefully
BE
The company informed lenders of the approach and plans to ask them for permission to begin official negotiations next week. Advisers will be appointed soon, the first source said.

“The bidder would buy the company via the debt, paying down a large chunk at par and asking lenders to write down the remainder,” commented the second source familiar. Numbers currently being floated would imply a 70%-80% recovery for creditors, both sources said.

BE
Since the company is lender owned, the attitude of the UK banks – the largest creditors – to a potential haircut will be key, said the second source familiar.

Completed via a scheme of arrangement through the UK high court last year, Crest Nicholson’s restructuring slashed the company’s GBP 1.094bn debt to GBP 620m of new debt maturing 2012. The restructured debt was divided into a GBP 40m super senior RCF paying Libor+ 100bps cash/500bps PIK, a GBP 250m term loan paying L+ 50bps, an GBP 80m guarantee facility paying L+ 50bps and a GBP 250m subordinated PIK paying L+ 250bps, as reported.

BE
The proposal offered lenders 90% of the house builder’s restructured equity, with 86% allocated to senior lenders and 4% to second lien holders. Mezzanine holders were not offered any of the restructured equity. The remaining 10% was to be allocated to management as part of an incentive programme, as reported.
BE
There’s lots more of that, but if you want it you’ll have to buy a subscription.
NH
thanks for that
NH
but remember here’s what happened last year
NH
In February last year Crest completed a £630m debt for equity swap that left its lenders holding 90 per cent of the stock, with the remaining 10 per cent going to management.
NH
that’s from the FT story
NH
and also
NH
Osmond has put a statement out today
NH
that’s sounds pretty non-plussed with all the speculation
NH
ZAP
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
NH
Horizon has noted the press speculation that it is in discussions with Crest Nicholson.

Horizon confirms that, in line with the strategy set out in its prospectus published on 4 February, 2010, Horizon is in preliminary discussions with several different companies, including Crest Nicholson, with a view to potentially executing a transaction with one of them. At this point, no view can be expressed as to whether a transaction will result from any of these discussions.

Horizon notes that, in line with its prospectus, Horizon will not acquire more than one company.

Further announcements will be made as appropriate.

NH
and while we are on the housebuilders
NH
there was a very, very interesting comment from Jeremy Grantham
NH
of GMO today
NH
I have put his note in the usual place
NH
but here’s what he has to say about the UK housing market
NH
The U.K. and Australian housing bubbles may be
unimportant to U.S. investors, but to bubble historians
they look extraordinary. The U.K. event in particular
has broken out of any previous mold. Despite the
usual cry of “special case,” they will decline around
40%, back to trend, as was the case for the previous
32 bubbles. If not, it will be the fi rst time in history
that a bubble has not behaved in this way. Reversion
to trend will involve considerable pain, which I will
discuss further next quarter if things are quiet.
NH
so
NH
that’s a 40% decline coming
11:59AM
NH
Okay
NH
it’s almost midday
NH
and the zapper has just been used
NH
anything else to look at
NH
on the market front
NH
the FTSE 100 is up 40 points at 5,763
BE
Um – few things.
BE
BSkyB was mentioned on the right
British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC (BSY:LSE): Last: 617.50, down 12.5 (-1.98%), High: 635.00, Low: 610.00, Volume: 3.01m
BE
Underperforming after a Jefferies downgrade pre results
BE
Give me a second to dig that out
BE
Downgrading to Hold ahead of FY Q3 results. The stock is likely to be
influenced (+/- 2%) by the court decision expected imminently relating
to stay of execution on channel wholesale regulation.

We are downgrading BSkyB to Hold. We expect uninspiring FY ’10 Q3
results on Thursday with net adds below on last year’s 80k at 57k, and
EBITA growth of only 5%. At 18x calenderised ’10 EPS the stock is up
with events and fully valued.

NH
so it is profit taking then
NH
they have had a good run after all
BE
Essentially, yes.
BE
And, while on the fallers list, Intertek’s underperforming
BE
After they pulled the deal to buy DNV’s certification business
BE
Which is a mixed blessing in many ways …..
BE
No bump to earnings, but no poison pill either.
Intertek Group plc (ITRK:LSE): Last: 1,509, down 20 (-1.31%), High: 1,517, Low: 1,490, Volume: 239.07k
NH
hmmm
NH
thought they might be up on that news
BE
As did I
BE
Looks like the deal was simply too complicated
BE
And the all-share structure had run away from the valuation set in March
BE
Did have some comment on this …..
BE
Ah – JP Morgan
NH
go ahead
BE
Complexity of the carve out brings negotiations to an end – the
difficulties associated with such a complex deal have already been
flagged, with the negotiations dragging on longer than expected. The
DNV systems certification activities have grown organically within its
Marine and Energy businesses – so identifying the relevant assets and
ensuring these are included in the carve out and acquisition by Intertek
has proven much more difficult than initially anticipated. We believe that
this has introduced a significant amount of risk into the proposed
transaction and that it has not proven possible to address this risk within
a reasonable time period.
BE
Negotiations discontinued, not terminated – tentative suggestion deal
could come back – it is worth noting that this is a joint statement and
that it refers to the negotiations being discontinued – not terminated. It is
possible that the deal with DNV could re-emerge, but given the
difficulties with the carve out, it seems likely to be some time before any
revival of the discussions.
BE
No changes to estimates – DNV was not included in our earnings
forecasts and so we see no reason to change our estimates off the back of
this morning’s statement. We currently forecast FY10E EPS of 87.7p and
97.8p for FY11E.
BE
Intertek to pursue other opportunities – longer term, DNV represented
an opportunity for Intertek to progress from a niche player in systems
certification to a strong number three. However, the discontinuation of
the negotiations makes it clear that this is not an aim the management
feel is worth pursuing regardless of the risk or price attached. We believe
that good opportunities remain across the group – this includes systems
certification, but also bolt-ons in all business areas, as well as
opportunities to build scale in areas where the group has only a niche
presence.
• Remain Overweight. Intertek remains our preferred pick in the TIC
space (we are Neutral on both BV and SGS). On our current forecasts,
the group is on FY11E EV/sales, EV/EBIT and PER multiples of 1.82x,
10.5x and 15.7, at a c10% discount to SGS and in-line with BV. In our
view this fails to reflect Intertek’s sector-beating resilience, more upbeat
FY10E guidance, or its growth potential. As growth picks up, we expect
the shares to re-rate and we also see upside risks to our forecasts.
NH
thanks for that
12:04PM
NH
Okay a few things to round up on
NH
Although it might be quiet today
NH
there’s plenty going on this week
NH
US GDP this Friday
NH
statement from the FOMC due on Wed
NH
Mr Fabulous up in court tomorrow
NH
along with Lloyd, his boss
NH
and that should be fun
NH
especially after all those weekend emails
BE
Ah yes
BE
A tad harsh to send out conversations between some chap and his missus.
NH
indeed
NH
but this is getting dirty now
NH
apparently the Senate subcommitee will have a press conference today
NH
but if you missed the emails
NH
and the hundreds of others that were published over the weekend
NH
here’s a taste
NH
They emailed back and forth about how they wanted to curl up in each other’s arms and how they looked forward to tender moments together. Tourre, a Goldman Sachs bond trader, also wrote in the emails of the impending collapse of the subprime mortgage market and how he was masterminding ways at Goldman to make money from it.
NH
Little did they know that three years later these very personal emails written through Tourre’s Goldman Sachs e-mail account would become part of one of the biggest investigations into the subsequent financial crisis.

In the email exchanges between Tourre and his girlfriend, Marine Serres, Tourre comes off as a young, hotshot trader who foresaw the subprime meltdown while still selling shoddy subprime-backed products so prolifically he could peddle them to “widows and orphans.”

NH
“Anyway, not feeling too guilty about this, the real purpose of my job is to make capital markets more efficient and ultimately provide the U.S. consumer with more efficient ways to leverage and finance himself, so there is a humble, noble and ethical reason for my job ;) amazing how good I am in convincing myself !!!” Tourre said in an e-mail to Serres in January 2007.
NH
how this ends I am not sure
12:07PM
NH
OK
NH
before I go
NH
I think I will put some more up from the Grantham note
NH
it is very good
NH
he’s a bear
NH
but going with the flow at the moment
NH
It’s spring, and this spring a young man’s fancy lightly
turns to thoughts of speculation. The Fed’s promises look
good and, as long as you’re not a small business, you can
borrow to invest or speculate at no cost. The market has
had a near record rally, sprinting far past our estimated fair
value of 875 for the S&P 500. Bernanke is, in fact, begging
us to speculate, and is being mean only to conservative
investors like pensioners who cannot make a penny on
their cash.
NH
Collectively, we forego hundreds of billions
of potential interest, but at least we can feel noble because
we are helping to restore the fi nancial health of the banks
and bankers, who under these conditions could not fail to
make a fortune even if brain dead. We are also lucky to
have a tiny fraction of our foregone interest returned by
the banks as loan repayments with “profi t.” Some profi t!
Oh, for the good old days when we could just settle for
a normal market-clearing rate of interest. But that, I
suppose, would be wicked capitalism, and we had better
get used to bank- and speculator-benefi ting socialism.
NH
The massive bailout program stopped the meltdown of
the fi nancial system and engineered at least a temporary
economic recovery. We know the obvious cost of this
bailout: unprecedented deterioration of the Federal balance
sheet. But what of the less obvious costs incurred by
taking away the rewards of caution by saving the reckless
and incompetent? These weak enterprises, fi nancial and
other, were not gobbled up by the stronger, more prudent,
and more competent natural survivors, and there is a longterm
cost in that.
NH
So now, Bernanke begs us to speculate, and we are
obedient. Despite being hammered down twice in 10
years and getting punished for speculating, we again
pick ourselves up off of the canvas and get back into the
good fi ght. Such persistence is unprecedented – 20 years
for each really painful experience has been the normal
recovery time – but Uncles Ben and Alan have treated us
so well in these two disasters that, with hindsight, they
don’t feel so bad after all
NH
Yes, the market is still downa lot in over 10 years and on our data is likely to have a
second consecutive very poor decade, but we have had
two wonderful recoveries in which the more speculative
you were, the more money you made. So why not break
the historical rules and try a third time? Perhaps this time
it will be lucky.
NH
so do you feel lucky readers?
NH
a third bubble in 10 years?
NH
Bryce
NH
have you got anything else?
BE
Nah – let’s wrap this up.
BE
Oh – actually, there was a request on the right for Morse comment
NH
oh yes
BE
Quick line from George O’Connor at Panmure
BE
He reckons there’s scope for a counter
NH
interesting
NH
the irrecovables lapse at around 60p
NH
or 10% higher than the current bid
BE
And 2e2′s not really in fighting shape, apparently
BE
Job done by the turnaround team at Morse (Lossemore/Phillips/Millward).
We feel that selling the business – even if the price looks a bit cheap at a P/E
of <10x – is probably in everyone’s best interest. We had concerns about
‘growth’ at Morse and the message from 2e2 (itself a serial acquirer, making
13 acquisitions since 2003) is more palatable, being about synergies and
cross-sell. For its part, 2e2 nets a grown-up brand (adding to Netstore and
Compel) and, with the residue of the Diagonal business, could well get itself
a better rating. Given the valuation, and interest shown in this segment by
BPO companies, consolidators, Americans and offshore, investors should
hang on until the 11th hour – there could well be another bid. Indeed, given
the indebtedness at 2e2, a competitor bid may be difficult to counter.
NH
hmm
NH
where are they trading?
Morse PLC (MOR:LSE): Last: 50.25, up 2.25 (+4.69%), High: 50.50, Low: 48.25, Volume: 14.38m
NH
slightly below
BE
Yup. Offer’s at 51p.
NH
thanks for that
NH
and to end today’s session
NH
some worrying news
NH
Michael Fowke
NH
the world’s leading financial shamen
NH
may be about to start charging for his site
BE
Fowke paywall?
NH
yep
NH
Is nothing sacred anymore???
NH
we need his thoughts – FREE
NH
you can’t charge for that sort of mystical stuff
NH
it’s just wrong
BE
Hm. A firewall of burning money.
BE
Right – on that note, let’s close this.
NH
before we do
NH
some Greek/German snaps
BE
Go on.
NH
RTRS-GERMAN FIN MIN SCHAEUBLE SAYS IS DETERMINED TO DEFEND STABILITY OF EURO
12:06 26Apr10 RTRS-GERMAN SPD SAYS WILL NOT BACK ACCELERATED PARLIAMENTARY PROCESS TO APPROVE GREEK AID
NH
ze Germans really don’t want to cough up the cash do they?
BE
Yup. Dragging their heels.
NH
anyway
NH
that’s if from us
NH
the market is still going up
BE
(Blackrock figures just hit the tape. Look light.)
NH
44 points higher at 5,768
BE
So thanks for all your comments.
NH
yep
BE
And your constructive criticism about how to improve the user experience.
BE
You can be assured that we carefully consider all your suggestions before ignoring them.
NH
hang on
NH
some breaking news
BE
Go on.
NH
CITIGROUP REPORTS PACT FOR U.S. TO SELL 7.69B SHR
NH
MS to establish sale process in which shares will be placed with little to no
day by day discretion, not attempting to judge market flows, rather selling
at prices set ahead of floor level.
BE
Ah right – that’s interesting.
NH
Plan seen as selling stake via sales of 8-10% of adv every day following
April 19 release of Q1 results.
NH
not sure
BE
Novel strategy.
NH
where this is being leaked
NH
trying to find it now
NH
anyway
NH
we must go
NH
it’s lunchtime after all
NH
cya
BE
Same time tomorrow, folks. Goodbye.
NH
bye
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