March, 2010
A spectre is mildly haunting Europe
…Because European bond yield spreads really were on tenterhooks on Tuesday, after a Fitch analyst commented on the continent’s shaky AAA sovereigns.
As Reuters flashed at the time:
RTRS-RPT-GREEK/GERMAN
Markets Live transcript 9 Mar 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:12 on 9 Mar 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHola NHand welcome to Markets Live
Roach: Pooh-pooh to Chinese bubbles
Once again, the China skeptics are out in force, notes Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and clearly not a member of the Sino-Cassandra brigade.
In a Tuesday comment in Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper,
[South Africa 2010] South Africa: back of the net – not
What happens when your favourite emerging market gets the nod to host a major world sporting event? Sadly, surprisingly little; trends matter more.
A Citi note on Tuesday cuts through South Africa’s World Cup fever:
GBK *alert*
It’s lost the psychologically important $1.50 level (irony intended, readers).
Reasons?
The UK trade gap widened in January to a 17-month high, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday morning.
EMF – you’re unbelievable
An excuse for a headline — and a video.
Doubts over the feasibility of a European Monetary Fund (EMF) continue apace on Tuesday morning.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been warning that such a fund — something along the lines of the international (IMF) version — would require a new European treaty.
Rescuing Annie: an unusual private equity deal
Poor Annie Leibovitz. Imagine facing the prospect of losing several of your many homes, not to mention rights over your multi-million dollar store of snaps. That was the situation facing the celebrity photographer,
Treasuries of the Caribbean (and China, and the UK)
From today’s FT — a bold call from Portales Partners’ Dina Kos:
Now is not the time to be shorting US Treasuries
. . . Last month the Treasury reported its monthly tally of Treasury holders. While foreigners as a group were adding to their Treasury holdings,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- A harsher view of the post-crisis world.
- Comparing the two depressions.
- US housing: hampered beyond Hamp.
- Zhou me the money, PBOC.
- European bonds: Wall St.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: Japan edges from America towards China
How Japan reacts to its new sense of weakness – exaggerated though it may be – will matter to the whole world,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Liberty International details demerger plan and announces full year results – statement and statement.
- Shanks ends takeover talks with Carlyle Europe after 120p a share offer – statement.
Cuomo ‘lacks financial acumen, hates banks’, Bove says
In case you were wondering just how much Dick Bove <3 banks and dislikes regulation, the following CNBC piece should make his feelings abundantly clear:
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is the “father of the subprime crisis”
Greece v everyone, BaFin and speculators edition
Hot on the heels of a declaration from the German finance regulator that it had not found any evidence of derivatives being used to speculate against Greek debt comes the following from the NY Times:
The Greek prime minister on Monday called on the United States and the European Union to crack down on speculative trading,
BaFin says no evidence of malign Greek CDS speculation
Just out from the Die Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, better known (for obvious reasons) as BaFin, the German financial regulator:
Die Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) hat –entgegen anders lautender Berichterstattung – bislang keine Anhaltspunkte dafür gefunden,
The FSA is not a fan of life settlements
Add the UK’s financial services regulator to the cacophony of voices expressing concern about so-called life settlements.
First, a definition of the term, via Standard & Poor’s:
Life settlements,
Outshone by Shanghai’s rising sun?
Foolish Pru! You picked the wrong Asian secondary listing. For Monday has brought yet more news of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s bid for complete world domination. (Quaking in your boots yet, Hong Kong?)
Specifically,
Bob the Bull
Clearly Bob Janjuah’s guest editing slot on Alphaville has had a profound effect.
He’s turned bullish!
I know I will always be labelled a perma-bear, and I have given up on the idea that (at least some) folks will ever understand/appreciate that occasionally I do make bullish calls (most notably early in 2009!).
CDS report: Storm over Greece subsides
European credit markets started the week on a positive note, defying lacklustre stock markets and continuing the rally from last week. The Markit iTraxx Europe index was 3.5bp tighter at 74.5bp,
Austerity, Portuguese style
Not enough to avert a further downgrade by rating agencies. That’s the verdict from Unicredit economist Tullia Bucco, who has been examining the preliminary details of Portugal’s revised austerity plan.
Reasons to buy high yielders
Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker offered three reasons, to be precise. But first a bit of context.
Secker calculates that since 1926, the real price return on European stocks has been just 1.3 per cent per annum,
The bull market in financial indicators
Unbroken in 40 years it would seem, but there’s been a notable lack of volatility over the past half-decade or so…
The chart is not completely random. It comes from a paper looking at whether the array of leading indicators monitored by market professionals can actually be boiled down to one super-indicator.
Wen, will property cool?
Amid the flurry of media attempts to parse the assurances of elusive Chinese mandarins, one announcement on Monday from the housing ministry looked like it might actually tell us something about the direction of Chinese economic reform.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Monday morning,
- Is China really tightening? Pull the other one.
- Happy anniversary, S&P 500. We think.
- Merril weighs in on Pru/AIA.
- Renminbi revaluation: rumbles in the jungle National People’s Congress.
‘Japan’s brewing fiasco’
No, there hasn’t been an explosion in the Asahi Super Dry factory. But it might be almost as bad. SocGen’s Dylan Grice has a note out on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) – and fears their maturity dates presage an imminent blow-up.
Markets Live transcript 8 Mar 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 8 Mar 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHGood morning NHand welcome to Markets Live
Pru/AIA – “finely balanced”
Merrill Lynch is one of the few brokers able to comment on the $35.5bn Prudential/AIA deal and Blair Stewart and his team are taking full advantage.
They have published another interesting report on the deal this Monday morning.
China: More revaluation rumbles
We recently reported on the various arguments in China currency-watching circles, at home and abroad, over the value of the renminbi. That was before we heard this week that China has now decided its dollar peg is “temporary”.
Happy anniversary
Tuesday marks a year since the S&P’s lurch to 670 points or thereabouts.
And to celebrate, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid has been crunching some numbers.
Anyway it’s a big anniversary week as