February, 2010
And so it begins…
…the backlash against those nasty conspiratorial financial speculators who have caused all this sovereign debt crisis stuff, that is.
The following quotes come from a Newsnight interview with Christine Lagarde,
Markets Live transcript 12 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:12 on 12 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder Izabella Kaminska, FT NHHola NHand welcome to Markets Live
Pangs of gilt(s) – again
Notice anything about the below chart, from RBC Capital Markets’ Richard McGuire?
The graph plots the 11 largest eurozone members — plus the UK — according to their expected stock of debt and structural budget deficit.
Germany’s export decision
Following news on Thursday that the European Union will support Greece in its fiscal hour of need, it’s still the case that the cost of euro-peripheral bailouts will have to be borne by someone.
For the time being in Europe that means the community’s most productive members,
Euro fall *alert*
Oh dear.
EURO HITS 8 1/2-MONTH LOW OF $1.3567 – REUTERS DATA
Now that can’t entirely be blamed on the Greek bail out damp squib.
Elsewhere on Friday morning…
EURO ZONE Q4 2009 GDP ESTIMATED
Chasing the dragon
Launching the Fidelity China Special Situations this week, star fund manager Anthony Bolton claimed China was the place to be, from an investment perspective, over the next 10 years:
“I firmly believe that China is the investment opportunity of the next decade.
Corporate bonds: The rot sets in as gold shines
It’s happening… corporate bond markets are already in the grip of that “massive case of indigestion” that commentators were warning about last month. But the mounting risk aversion to sovereign debt,
Goldman asks, is sovereign strain Europe’s subprime?
We’ll spare you the suspense.
The answer, according to Goldman Sachs analysts Ben Broadbent and Nick Kojucharov, is no, it probably isn’t. Or, at least it won’t be as long as defaults stay below a certain threshold.
Bonuses: Where has all the rage gone?
Now that even Barack Obama seems to have abandoned his earlier “bonus rage” and acknowledged – if not welcomed – bankers’ multi-million dollar bonus payouts as part of America’s “free market system”, it should be all okay then.
Let’s throw a concert for Greece
The EU’s response to the Greek crisis has fallen rather flat.
Markets are lacklustre on Friday morning — a day after European leaders pledged “determined and co-ordinated action if needed to safeguard stability”
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Are banks really refusing to lend?
- The latest round of forecasting gibberish.
- Why investors don’t think America is the next Greece.
- BBH’s view: A way out?
- Ever-vigilant regulators discover…
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
James Rickards: How markets attacked the Greek piñata
Wall Street loves a piñata party – singling out a company or country, making it the piñata,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Eni Q4 adjusted net income beats forecasts at $1.9bn – statement.
- Corporate: Sportingbet, SSL, UBM, Eurazeo, Michelin, Petropavlovsk, Endeavour International.
CDS report: Greek rescue? More like damp squib.
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
The much-anticipated EU rescue plan for Greece proved to be a bit of a damp squib, as was always likely to be the case. In true EU fashion the announcement was vague and had the whiff of compromise.
Quote du jour, Greek machismo edition
Via AP:
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou says in Brussels that Greece will not need help amid debt crisis
He said Greece “never asked for any help” and added that it “will not be needing help”
Pangs of gilt(s), redux
In the wake of Wednesday’s inflation report from the Bank of England we pondered whether investors’ patience with the UK budget deficit might be closer to breaking-point than at any time in the past year.
Frank meet Clive, Clive meet Frank
With Frank, ‘get me a f****ing vodka’, Timis heading down under to float his latest vehicle — African Petroleum — we thought it only polite to introduce some of his rivals in the Australian extraction industry.
‘The most serious wave of commercial real estate difficulties is just now beginning’
Here’s one of the scariest sentences you will (in all likelihood) read today:
That’s from the latest Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) report, and it is all about — you guessed it — commercial real estate in the US.
Greek bailout ennui
At long last, an official release on the Greek bailout and … it’s something of anti-climax.
Statement by the Heads of State or Government of the European Union:
All euro area members must conduct sound national policies in line with the agreed rules.
Buying out the mortgage market
Mortgage finance twinned with accounting rarely makes compelling reading, but bear with us.
Wednesday’s announcement that the two US Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) will start buying out certain loans,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Thursday morning,
- My big fat Greek short-selling deterrent.
- And when to sell the euro(zone).
- Goldman’s Greek oops.
- More pensions woe at BT.
- The mother of all bank re-securitisations beckons.
China: ‘It’s simply because people are rich now’
How does this headline, from Thursday’s FT . . .
China lending and property prices surge
. . . square with this one, also from the FT, less than three weeks earlier:
China tells banks to halt lending
Of course,
Markets Live transcript 11 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:16 on 11 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHi there NHits 11.03am NHand time for more markets chat
When to sell the euro(zone)
Here’s something to ponder as we await details of a Greek bailout.
It’s a currency recommendation from analysts at BNP Paribas:
Helping Greece is one thing, but when Greek paper benefit from other EMU countries underwriting its debt,
The mother of all bank re-securitisations?
FT Alphaville first mentioned reports that the FDIC, the US body in charge of guaranteeing American bank deposits, was looking at `the mother of all bank securitisations’ back in October.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has accumulated some $36bn worth of assets from the plethora of failed US banks.
My big fat short-selling deterrent
The Athens Stock Exchange is trying to make life more difficult for those evil speculators who roam global markets looking for innocent countries and companies to ruin.
It has increased the stock lending interest rate from 2.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent and adjusted margin requirements — all because of “increased price volatility”.
Does rapid growth lead to high returns?
Economist and market watcher Andrew Smithers has focused in his latest client report on the disparities between equity returns in fast-growing emerging markets and more mature economies to argue for caution and international diversification of equity portfolios.
More BT pension woe
The price action in BT on Thursday morning following the publication of its third quarter results.
The reason for that fall is more pension problems.
Alongside the figures, BT announced a 17-year pension deficit repayment plan.