February, 2010
What on earth are oil investors thinking?
Over the last two trading sessions the two largest oil companies in the United States, Exxon and Chevron announced that in Q4 2009 they lost a combined $6.9 million day on turning crude oil into refined products.
Europe is Lehman-fied, part deux
So it’s not quite at the 10.25bps level hit when Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, but the difference between the iTraxx Main and Financials Senior CDS indices (a basic indicator of how credit investors are viewing corporates versus financials) is getting close.
Markets Live transcript 2 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 2 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHi there NHits 11.03 am NHwhich means it is time for another edition of Markets Live
[Mining Indaba 2010] Reflections on Day 1
He may have been robbed but that hasn’t stopped FT Alphaville’s man on the ground at the Indaba mining conference in Cape Town from filing his thoughts on the opening day of the industry’s annual South African jamboree.
Korea’s NPS and the ‘overlap’ factor
One thing we know about the South Koreans — they have reversed course in recent years to become big spenders and poor savers. They have also become much bolder investors, after decades of adhering to a more cautious approach.
A New Look?
New Look has wheeled out the big guns for its proposed flotation on the London Stock Exchange. Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan Cazenove and Lazard are all on the ticket. (And that’s just the lead mangers – Barclays,
BP’s unsurprising refining surprise
That, for the record, is what happens when analysts don’t mysteriously “mind-meld” a couple of weeks ahead of your results.
As we reported on January 13, a number of analysts spookily cut their earnings forecasts on rival Shell — all at the same time.
Shadow bank losses
Alternative title: “How loan modifications distort bank results”.
Barclays Capital speculated last month that non-performing loans (NPLs) may peak in 2010. A few weeks on, and the bank is saying net-charge-offs (NCOs) may have peaked based on US banks’ recent fourth-quarter (2009) earnings.
The RBA’s ‘shocker’ Down Under
Australia’s central bankers had a bit of fun on Tuesday, confounding economists, shocking markets and driving down the Aussie dollar to its lowest level in six weeks by unexpectedly holding the country’s benchmark interest rate at 3.75 per cent,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- Hank Paulson’s book, the birds and Bear Stearns.
- And some book-bashing.
- Goldman and the empty creditor.
- Zhu Min, a man worth listening to.
- Hedge funds in Hollywood.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: How the bottom fell out of ‘old’ Davos
Uneasily conscious of a shift of power to the east, western leaders are questioning ideas that used to underpin Davos,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- BP’s Q4 replacement cost profit rises 33 per cent to $3.4bn, versus an expected $4.6bn – statement.
- Nomura returns to profit in third quarter – statement.
The little bucket shop of horrors
The high risk nature of small cap shares is demonstrated in the sample of transactions reviewed, which covered 19 different small cap stocks. Analysis has shown that the value of these stocks has decreased significantly since the point of purchase to December 2009.
…this is an M&S pay deal
It has taken a couple of months, but Marks & Spencer has finally revealed the cost of luring Marc Bolland from Wm Morrison.
And he didn’t come cheap. In fact, this looks like it might trigger a couple of red-top alerts from the corporate governance brigade.
Volcker rule hits JPM’s Sempra deal
Ah, the Volcker rule: a godsend for non-bank associated market makers and trading houses — including the big physical commodity trading business — but not so good for trading divisions found within commercial banks.
The latest Fed-Web offering
Is a training site for bank directors. It looks like this:
Why the need?
Because:
“Many people who are asked to serve on bank boards have little training or experience to prepare them for their new roles,”
Introducing, the death index
We’ve written about the rise of death bonds before.
That term relates to the secondary-market trading of life insurance policies and securitisation trends within the general life-settlement industry.
Of vacuums and central bank policies
FT Alphaville noted earlier today the extent to which the US government is propping up the housing market. Programmes such as the Hamp are explicitly aimed at supporting house prices; while the Federal Reserve is due to buy $1.25 trillion worth mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Monday morning,
- Taking (a) Notice in Greece.
- US Housing Bubble v2.0.
- The Asian anti-inflationary effect.
- Is this the big one? (Bear, that is).
- Our man in Indaba.
The UK/US natgas divergence
See that. That’s the rather spectacular divergence between UK NBP gas prices and US Henry Hub prices of late.
According to Goldman Sachs it’s all weather related. In fact, the banks’ analysts put it down to thawing cold weather in the US and the re-emergence of the dreaded cold snap in Britain.
How do you say ‘Notice’ in Greek?
Mark Wednesday in your European Sovereign Struggle calendars.
For that’s the day, February 3, that the European Commission is expected to publish its review of Greece’s Stability Programme. EU members are required to submit these programmes to the Commission every January for review,
Markets Live transcript 1 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:21 on 1 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHGood morning NHand welcome to Markets Live
The Asian anti-inflationary effect
Last Friday, the Indian central bank surprised markets by holding rates while lifting its cash reserve ratio by 75 bps to 5.75 per cent. They had been anticipated to hike rates by 25bps while lifting the cash reserve ratio by 50 bps.
US Housing Bubble v2.0
Here’s one thing that the Sigtarp’s quarterly report to Congress, released on Saturday, made very clear: propping up house prices is now an explicit goal of the US government.
So explicit in fact, that the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program has knocked up this little chart to show how various policy programmes (Hamp,
Shock, horror: ‘irresponsible’ pricing in China IPOs
Beijing’s regulators have injected a few more jitters into China’s nervy but always hyperactive stock markets – taking a swipe at “irresponsible” pricing of IPOs.
As the FT notes on Monday, the statement has fuelled speculation that Beijing could temporarily halt the new issue market in order to introduce fresh pricing rules.
Is this the big one?
Two big investment banks, UBS and JPMorgan, are on Monday asking themselves whether the current bear is “the big one” in terms of market corrections, or just a minor hiccup.
There’s a host of things that could be making markets nervous — the sovereign situation in Europe,
What a difference six months makes, in the CEE
In early 2009, central and eastern Europe (CEE) was the region “most blighted by the financial crisis”, as Lex reminded us last week. There were real concerns for foreign banks with big CEE exposure – above all from Austria,
[Mining Indaba 2010] Preview (Frank Timis update)
By Matthew Kennard, our man-on-the-ground at the mining industry’s annual jamboree in South Africa.
Welcome to the Mining Indaba 2010; I’ll be your guide through the biggest industry junket of the year taking place in sunny Cape Town over the next week.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- The stock market as Greek tragedy.
- Should Germany bail out ‘Club Med’?
- The curse of the January markets barometer returns.
- One year of futility, the chart.