February, 2010
Goldman’s Greek oops
Goldman analyst Erik Nielsen has goofed. Over Greece.
On Wednesday the analyst, in addition to musing over a possible Greek bailout, said some interesting things about just-published fiscal numbers from the Greek Finance Ministry:
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- “The euro should really be called the Icarus.”
- Greek bailout, in video.
- Are you watching Greece?
- The vanilla option financial reform.
- The house that Goldman bonuses built.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Niall Ferguson: America’s looming Greek crisis
It began in Athens and is spreading to Lisbon and Madrid. But it would be a grave mistake to assume the sovereign debt crisis now unfolding will remain confined to the weaker eurozone economies,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- BT says expects to deliver adjusted EBITDA of around £5.7bn for the full year – statement, pension statement.
- Rio Tinto announces underlying earnings of $6.3 billion – statement.
FHA says everything is A-OK – but defaults are running at 9%
In February, HousingWire reported on upbeat comments from an official at the Federal Housing Administration, a government agency which insures mortgages:
The 2009 books is solid,” said Margaret Burns,
CDS report: Where’s the bailout?
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
European credit indices outpaced their equity counterparts amid expectations that a German-led bailout of Greece is imminent. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe index,
A Bernanke brief
Here’s a little table:
And here’s the summary from a thoughtful discussion of the Fed’s exit strategy from Michael Cloherty at Bank of America ML. It’s from last week, but it will help in deciphering this.
A rush to trade in Russia?
Take a look at the following charts of Russia’s Micex index, the RTS index and the same RTS index as denominated in dollars:
Notice anything interesting with the volumes?
On the Micex,
Handy sovereign risk table
Looks like Credit Suisse has jonied the conspiracy trying to undermine Spain.
Here’s a ranking of countries by perceived risk, taking into account things like current account balances, public and private debt,
Bernanke beats the weather
Most of the policy agenda in Washington has been postponed because of the weather. In fact the House of Representatives has been adjourned until February 22.
So we don’t get to actually hear Fed chairman Ben Bernanke read this — testimony on the Fed’s QE/stimulus exit strategy,
Pangs of gilt(s)
Is Bank of England governor Mervyn King worried about rising gilt yields?
From the just-released February inflation report:
Gilt yields are a bit of a bugbear for the BoE, since the UK’s gilt-buying quantitative easing programme is rather different to that of the US,
US banks have $176bn in exposure to troubled Europe, BarCap says
US banks’ exposure to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain represents approximately 5 per cent of their total foreign exposure, analysts at Barclays Capital said in a note on Tuesday.
In absolute terms,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Wednesday morning,
- China’s punishment, US Treasuries’ pain.
- Crystal ball-gazing with Goldman, in Greece.
- The Bank of England’s sliding expectations.
- Autonomy’s acquiring (again).
SEB-performing
That’s the share price of Sweden’s SEB — one of the Nordic region’s largest banks. About 11 per cent of SEB’s loans also happen to be to the Baltic region.
The bank reported fourth-quarter results on Wednesday which,
The Bank of England’s sliding expectations
If you want to know on what the Bank of England based last week’s decision not to extend quantitative easing beyond £200bn, here it is: the February Inflation Report.
And it looks like the Bank’s infamous UK GDP fan-chart is as wide as ever but,
Markets Live transcript 10 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:11 on 10 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NHHi there
NHand welcome to Markets Live
What’s Temasek up to now?
Temasek, Singapore’s state investment firm, often moves in mysterious ways – not all of them lucrative, although the low-key sovereign wealth fund (which prefers being called an “investment agency”) has made enough shrewd moves over the years to maintain an enviably large war-chest of about $121bn- not least its move in November to sell its first ever tranche of 30-year bonds.
Crystal ball gazing with Goldman
As rumour and denial swirl around the markets regarding outside financial help for Greece, Goldman Sach’s European economist Erik Nielsen has been looking into the bank’s crystal ball.
And this is what he sees:
China’s punishment, Treasuries’ pain (Updated)
China-dumping fears — of Treasuries or other assets — have long been on the minds’ of investors.
On Wednesday those fears hit the blogosphere, big time.
From the Inner Workings blog of the Asia Times:
Autonomy hits the acquisition trail (again)
Right up there on the list of things the City did not want Autonomy to do was make another acquisition. But that, it seems, is exactly what the FTSE 100 software company, which divides opinion in the Square Mile like few others,
Asia’s local currency bonds are looking pretty good
If you’re sitting in the eurozone, Asia’s local currency bond markets might look distant – and small. But this haven of relative tranquility is enjoying robust growth amid the turmoil roiling eurozone markets.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- Anatomy of a Euromess.
- Why Frankfurt needs Rahm Emanuel.
- “Commodities are poor inflation and currency hedges.”
- Even the pros have trouble with “buy and hold”.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Europe’s stragglers need German consumers
The financial crisis of 2009 is morphing into the fiscal anxieties of 2010, writes the FT’s Wolf.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- BHP Billiton underlying EBITDA falls 22 per cent to $10.8bn – statement.
- Autonomy Corporation launches a £500m convertible bond offering – statement.
- SEB says Q4 profit fell to $35m as loan losses jumped – statement.
Regulation, in pictures
Here’s the SEC enforcement team, led by Robert Khuzami, as portrayed by the New York Times.
And here’s the governor of the Bank of England, at play (we think) ahead of the G7 in Canada, courtesy of The Guardian.
A grandee speaks up for Little England
To the Said Business School, Oxford, to hear departing Cadbury chairman Roger Carr talk about hostile takeover bids – a timely address, given the Kraft deal…
Carr, we can report, had clearly topped up on the theobromine ahead of his speech.
CIC’s push in Asia could face resistance
Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China’s well-endowed SWF, CIC, recently reiterated the fund’s focus this year on what is now routinely labeled Emerging Asia. Jiwei added that the opportunities in these markets come with ample risk.