Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:19 on 15 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NH
welcome to the year of the Tiger
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily dash around the market
NH
2010 will be a tumultuous year, apparently
NH
however, the Tiger’s influence will offer us courage, while inviting bold actions and risk taking
NH
and in spite of half the world being on holiday today
NH
Chinese new year, President’s Day in the US and half term in the UK
NH
oh and some big Carnival in Germany
NH
to bring you all the latest news, view and reaction from the market
NH
but first some sad news
NH
Manuel the mouse is no more
NH
he was taken outside this morning and shot
NH
he wasn’t a domestic mouse from the banks of the Thames
NH
employed by their securities services
NH
to spy on the Anglo Saxon media, which as we all know is involved in a dastardly plot to bring down the Spanish peninsular
BE
Yeah – I’ ve just been looking at the El Pais/Guardian story
NH
delusional in the extreme
NH
if you missed the story
NH
The newspaper said the country’s National Intelligence Centre (CNI) was investigating a series of “speculative attacks” against the Spanish economy amid bond market jitters about the country’s growing national debt.
“The (CNI’s) economic intelligence division … is investigating whether investors’ attacks and the aggressiveness of some Anglo-Saxon media are driven by market forces and challenges facing the Spanish economy – or whether there is something more behind this campaign,” El País said.
NH
The report follows claims from prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s socialist government that speculators and newspaper editorial writers had launched a concerted attack.
The Financial Times has been especially critical of the government’s handling of the Spanish economy in recent weeks. It has been joined by the Economist and other publications which have questioned Zapatero’s economic management.
NH
we are involved with the evil international speculators to bring down Spain
NH
and the CNI are going to prove it
NH
so just remember rabble on the right
BE
Before we upset the Spanish again, should we move on to something stockish?
NH
there is apparently a Facebook campaign
BE
Of course. There’s always a Facebook campaign.
NH
and its coverage of Spain, Greece etc
NH
“**** off ft and filthy propaganda against greece, **** you and your “bosses”
NH
“wonder why ft suspended the accounts of greej users that criticize what your ‘bosses’ told ya to right…well done for your biased views and you ‘games’ with the greek economy,however we know who you are and you who is behibs, scums like paulson making money from the sweat of the working class…beware bcoz u messed witg greece and we are going to get ya soon”
NH
“at least greek people around the world understand and they r not manipulated but their governments. brits, scots r miserable negative idiots and robots”
BE
We suspended Greek accounts?
NH
who’s calling me paranoid
NH
and have a look at the market
BE
Right – overview to begin.
NH
not sure why to be honest
NH
but 46 points stronger at 5,188
NH
banks, miners and a few insurers leading things higher
NH
but given some fresh jitters in Dubai today
NH
and the fact that we are still awaiting news on the Greek bailout
NH
I can’t see any reason why we should be up
BE
Volume’s woeful, needless to say.
BE
188m blue chips so far this morning.
NH
and with BA leading the way
British Airways (BAY:LSE): Last: 204.70, up 9.2 (+4.71%), High: 207.00, Low: 203.30, Volume: 4.95m
NH
so, the US DoJ has given the green light for BA’s JV with American Airlines
NH
and all for the price of just four take off and landing slots at Heathrow
NH
which seems remarkably lenient
BE
Yup – Transatlantic antitrust immunity
NH
The Bearded Pullover is not very happy about this
NH
been whining all weekend about the unfairness of it all
BE
Of course. That’s what he does.
BE
And, of course, Virgin transatlantic is rubbish these days
NH
that’s what Murph says
BE
Have to agree – You may as well fly Aeroflot over Virgin
BE
Anyway, we should cut to some comment on BA
NH
are they part of this alliance
NH
so this is good news for the proposed merger as well
BE
Full Oneworld partner list is British Airways, American Airlines, Iberia, Finnair and Royal Jordanian
NH
the EU has still to bless this deal
BE
BA/AA JV – US DOT proposes approval, subject to conditions
On the 13th February 2010, the U.S. DOT announced it was proposing to grant
anti-trust immunity (ATI) to BA and American Airlines (and other oneworld
partners) for a transatlantic joint venture. While approval is subject to conditions,
this is an encouraging potential development, in our view.
BE
Strategic rationale – broader network & synergy potential
ATI would allow BA/AA/Iberia to integrate their transatlantic services. This could
include joint capacity plans, network/scheduling, pricing, sales & marketing. We
think the carriers’ combined route network would offer passengers a higher
number of frequencies and services to additional destinations.
BE
Approval still dependent on certain conditions
It has been highlighted frequently in the past that capacity constraints at London
Heathrow and limited liquidity in the secondary slot market make new entry on
transatlantic routes difficult. As a result, the DOT’s approval is subject to
conditions including the divestment/leasing of four slot pairs. This is less onerous
than previous slot penalties (2002: 16 daily slot pairs). A final decision from the
DOT will be announced after objections are reviewed (approx 60 days). We are
still also awaiting comments from the EU competition authorities.
Valuation and conclusion – upside potential, re-iterate Buy
We estimate BA trades on a FY03/10E EV/IC multiple of 0.32x, a 20% discount to
the 5yr average multiple (0.41x). On a 12-month view, we see upside potential for
the shares as traffic and yields gradually recover. In addition, our 295p price
objective includes some potential value from M & A developments (including a
merger with Iberia and a JV with American Airlines). Our rating is Buy
BE
US DOT approval positive but not a surprise — The US Department of
Transportation (DOT) announced on Saturday that it would be willing to grant
anti-trust immunity (ATI) to BA/Iberia’s proposed JV with American Airlines on
Transatlantic routes. This would put BA/AA on a level playing field with Air
France/Delta and Lufthansa/Continental/United, who already have anti-trust
immune JV’s in place. The condition that they give up 4 daily slot-pairs to
competitors on US routes is in line with our expectation and consistent with its
previous ruling in 2002 to give up 16 daily slot pairs. The 4 slot pairs is derived
from the fact that other US airline have picked up 12 daily slots pairs from their
alliance partners and purchases since ‘Open skies’ came into effect in March
2008. It is unclear whether or not BA/AA can sell these slot pairs. This will
probably be decided by the European Commission (EC) but we expect they can be
sold or leased, given that BA has had to purchase many of its own slots and slot
trading is commonplace at Heathrow. Prime-time slots pairs can fetch c.£10m
each. We expect the JV to be implemented in April 2011 start of summer season.
BE
Further long-term earnings and share price upside possible — Our 280p target
price for BA already contains 12p/share based on the potential synergies from this
JV based on a 50% probability of being approved. In total, the synergies could
therefore be worth 25p. This is based on a 5% boost in annual North Atlantic
revenue of c.£2.8bn, tax of 28%, a P/E of 5x and a fully-diluted share count post
the merger with Iberia of 2.04m shares. The 5% increase is based on the
experience of other JVs already in operation. For BA/AA the issue is about regaining
lost market share to other JV’s, rather than about enlarging the size of the
market. Sources of synergy are mainly revenue-side and include (i) more optimal
deployment of shared capacity leading to higher utilisation of aircraft, slots and
labour, (ii) reciprocity between the frequent flier programmes of each airline (BA
has 7m frequent fliers and AA 60m) resulting in greater brand loyalty, and (iii)
increased effectiveness in competing for corporate contracts together. In addition,
a BA/AA JV makes BA a more appealing merger prospect to Iberia, thus reducing
the risk of the merger not happening. More details expected on 4 March IR Day.
BE
Risk of further conditions before final approval expected by April — The EC could
impose further route-specific conditions, especially where AA/BA could dominate
– e.g. London-Dallas Ft Worth. We would expect price controls and carve outs
rather than additional slots to be given up. EC decision is expected some time in
March. Also, the US DOT will only make its final ruling in mid-April after
competitors are given 45 days to object to its initial approval.
Pension deficit risk containable — BA share price has been affected by the
pension regulator’s harsh treatment of BT’s deficit. BA’s ability to pay increased
contributions looks less than that of BT. In our model, we already assume BA pays
i ncreased contributions of £150m p.a. and a lump sum of £500m from July 2010.
NH
so BA now on a level playing field
NH
with some of the other big airlines
BE
Yup – same deal offered to Skyteam and STAR
NH
some breaking news on the Greek situation
NH
RTRS-EU COMMISSION: MID-MARCH REPORT ON GREECE WILL ALLOW IT TO MAKE MORE INDEPTH ASSESSMENT OF SITUATION
11:18 15Feb10 RTRS-EU COMMISSION SAYS IF NECESSARY THE COMMISSION CAN CALL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY GREECE
NH
is there a statement on this
NH
I mean it looks like more fudge
NH
let’s see what happens and the meantime make big threatening noises against speculators
BE
Neil’s on the EU website
BE
No indication where the press releases are kept.
NH
Given the recent deterioration of public finances in Greece and the persistent external imbalances, for the first time an integrated approach to the enhanced surveillance mechanism is applied. Therefore, the Commission recommends to the Council to adopt on 16 February an opinion on the Greek Stability Programme for 2010-2013, a Decision under Art 126(9) of the Treaty on the correction of the excessive deficit and a Recommendation under Art 121(4) of the Treaty on structural reforms. Under Art 121(4) of the Treaty the Commission recommends to the Council that Greece adopts a comprehensive structural reform package aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the public administration, stepping up pension and healthcare reform, improving labour market functioning and t he effectiveness of the wage bargaining system, enhancing product market functioning and the business environment, and maintaining banking and financial sector stability . Under the Commission recommendation for a Council decision in accordance with Article 126.9 of the Treaty, Greece is required to follow the adjustment path outlined in the 2010 stability programme in terms of nominal deficit, structural deficit and change in debt levels, and detail the measures to be implemented. The recommendations include measures to be implemented already in 2010, whereby Greece should, as announced in the programme, stand ready to adopt additional measures to ensure that the adjustment path is followed. In the medium term, Greece is required to implement further adjustment measures of a permanent nature, continue with tax administration reforms and improve the budgetary framework (IP/10/116)
NH
The Commission will continue to monitor the situation in Greece very closely, in close contact with the President of the Eurogroup. Greece is required to submit a first report in mid March 2010, spelling out the implementation calendar of the measures to achieve the 2010 budgetary targets, standing also ready to adop t additional measures if needed.
Following up on a first orientation debate on the subject in January, the Eurogroup is also due to have a discussion on the surveillance of competitiveness developments and imbalances within the euro area. In its report on the first 10 years of Economic and Monetary Union (see EMU@10 : http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication_summary12680_en.htm , the Commission concluded that macroeconomic surveillance needed to be broadened to include divergences in competitiveness and imbalances and the Eurogroup members endorsed this view. For a recently published analysis of the issue see special report in the first quarterly report of 2009:
BE
Hm. Too much flannel for a Monday morning.
BE
Can’t bear to read through all that.
NH
but as Daddy points out
NH
the real story today as far as Greece goes
NH
are these currency swaps that Goldman did
NH
apparently there is a 100 page report out there somewhere
NH
which I would dearly love to get hold of
BE
You got any details to hand?
NH
I mailed the Greek Finance Ministry earlier
NH
but as part of the Anglo Saxom media
NH
A Greek government inquiry uncovered a series of swaps agreements with securities firms that may have allowed it to mask its growing debts.
NH
Greece used the swaps to defer interest repayments by several years, according to a Feb. 1 report commissioned by the Finance Ministry in Athens. The document didn’t identify the securities firms Greece used. The government turned to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2002 to obtain $1 billion through a swap agreement, Christoforos Sardelis, head of Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency between 1999 and 2004, said in an interview last week.
NH
Goldman Sachs bankers including President Gary Cohn traveled to Athens in November to pitch a deal that would push debt from the country’s health-care services into the future, the newspaper reported, citing two people briefed on the meeting. Greece rejected the offer, the New York Times said.
NH
and great to see Goldman in there
NH
at such a high level too
BE
Nothing I can find on the Eurostat website yet.
NH
barclays strong ahead of their numbers
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 270.80, up 8.8 (+3.36%), High: 271.75, Low: 265.25, Volume: 13.19m
BE
And there’s a positive note from Citigroup in circulation about the UK lenders, which is probably helping
NH
ah, what does that say?
BE
Well, eco recovery basically.
BE
Which has put the sector into “transition stage”
BE
Actually, no, the reverse.
BE
Anyway, I’ll let Citi explain itself
BE
Upgrading earnings and target prices — We are upgrading earnings forecasts for
the UK domestic banks based on recent macroeconomic, industry and comparator
evidence of positive trends in relation to UK loan impairments, margins, wealth
management product sales and investment banking earnings.
BE
Firmly in the recovery stage — The UK banks are currently in a better-thanexpected
recovery stage, especially in relation to bad debts and margins. We
suspect the market may be focusing too much on the medium-term ‘transition’
stage, when rates will rise and central banks exit from subsidised liquidity support
– which we see as more uncertain in impact than necessarily negative – and
perhaps underestimating both the strength and longevity of the recovery stage, as
well as the attractiveness of the final ‘consolidation’ stage for the industry.
BE
Credit quality indicators more positive — We see recent economic evidence to
support improved bad debt guidance for FY10. Unemployment has plateaued,
company profitability remains high while liquidations and profit warnings have
fallen for 2-3 quarters sequentially, residential and commercial property values
have bounced 9-10% from their lows, credit card charge-offs appear stable for the
UK banks and new mortgage arrears are falling. Impairment charges are largely
formulaic and must respond to these positive developments and trends.
BE
And pre-impairment profitability improving nicely — BoE data suggests spreads
have widened out more than expected, and we estimate the RoE on both new
mortgage lending and the SVR back-book is now over 50%. Wealth product sales
hit record levels in 2009, and IB earnings could beat expectations given a strong
start to 2010, the potential for asset write-backs and lower comp/income ratios.
BE
Undervalued recovery plays — We consider the UK domestic banks sector to be
undervalued. It is barely off 20-year lows in terms of P/E or P/B relatives, and
trades on just 3x GOP versus the European sector on 4x and a long-term average
of 5x. The size of this discount is too large to be warranted by the relative
economic and structural disadvantages of the UK banking industry in our view.
NH
Right, so undervalued recovery plays then
NH
and who is there favourite
BE
Barclays and Lloyds both on buy
NH
I note the Eric Daniels
NH
is in line for a big bonus this year
NH
overseeing a share price that has gone precisely nowhere
NH
and the fact that he successfully got away the UK’s biggest ever rights issue?
NH
Now I am sure there was a lot of work involved in that
NH
but should he really get a bonus for refinancing a mess that he caused in the first place
NH
by buying a bust bank without doing proper DD?
BE
Yes – it doesn’t look very clean, does it?
NH
surely UKFI must vote against it
NH
Eric just can’t get £10m for a doing a cash call
BE
There is, I note, rather a spread of opinion about how much he’s going to get
BE
£6m according to the Scotsman
BE
£3.5m according to City AM
NH
he should work for free until the mess is cleared up
BE
Showing your Gruniad past there, Neil.
BE
You can take the reporter out of the Grun, but …..
NH
but he’s lucky to still have a job
BE
He should really be consultant to an architecture firm by now.
NH
as it happens on Lloyds got an interesting bit of comment
NH
post the debt for equity swap
NH
a few brokers have been out marketing Lloyds as a buy idea
NH
and here is the pitch of one
NH
Post marketing huge amount of client animosity and bulk of any interest is only starting to emerge with contrarian value funds. We anticipate results on 26th Feb to support the trend direction of our restructuring story: sequential net interest margin uplift from asset repricing and a sequentially lower impairment charge (though non performing loans likely still rising). But, full delivery of our ‘new world’ mid / high teen RoE is 2012/13, which affords ample time for scepticism to remain elevated.
NH
At 47p, we estimate a market implied 20% cost of equity. 2 key angles here: 1) Uncomfortable Greek / weak sovereign financials readthrough, particularly with political surveys pointing to a rising possibility of a hung parliament. That would potentially be disastrous if it means the UK avoids its required austerity budget. Sovereign rating downgrade(s) for the UK would raise fears of the cost to the UK banks of refinancing their GBP 1 trillion that needs to be done by 2012.
NH
Especially with the Government debt raising on top, and the risk of crowding out. Lloyds would go down in this scenario, as would all UK banks. Important to point out here though that the most recent primary issuance of RMBS was at swaps +125bp, 50bp cheaper than we assume in our forecasts. Also, historically at least wholesale funding costs are inversely correlated to asset quality, ie market conviction in the bad debt peak should allow further tightening.
NH
Put differently, if the UK Gvt does what is necessary to the budget, the quoted banks should be able to work through their funding requirents 2) BIS3 core tier 1 ratio at 5.2pc as at 1H09 is broadly comparable with Eurobank peers, but the 2H09 loss drops it to an uncomfortable 3.4pc. This rebuilds from 2010 or 2011, depending on how quickly Lloyds can return to profit. (Our forecasts currently show 2011, but could be 2010 if the UK property market remains stable.)
NH
Either way, the ‘shadow ratio’ gets worse from here before it gets better, and could lead to speculation about triggering the ECN conversion (19pc dilutive). One potential solution here would be to sell the life businesses, but that would more likely be 2011/12 in our view as at current prices, say 0.7x EV, it would crystallise a cGBP3bn loss (5p book value per share). It would also lose c10pc of ‘normal’ earnings, though a much bigger proportion of near term until the bank profitability recovers. Valuation: at 47p, for FY10F Lloyds trades on 1.1x p/TCE with a negative RoTCE and zero yield. For FY12F, these drop to 0.8x for a 17% RoTCE and a 5x PE.
BE
And, just to wrap up on banks, the old “Barclays to MBO its PE business” story was given another run this weekend.
BE
Well, it was a quiet weekend.
BE
Observer saying the proposed deal would be worth $155 million.
NH
After that rather well timed share sale
NH
it seems Michael Spencer
NH
is going to give up the Tory Party treasurer role
NH
and go back to the day job
NH
which arguably he needs to do
NH
Michael Spencer, the chief executive of ICAP, is to resign as treasurer of the Conservative Party so that he can focus on the inter-broker dealer which announced a profits warning earlier this month.
NH
Mr Spencer, who is one of David Cameron’s closest allies, has admitted to his inner circle that having two jobs means he is spread too thin and that “mistakes have been made” in the way ICAP has developed. He will leave the political post in the autumn after seeing the Conservative fund-raising push through the election. When he became treasurer in 2006, the party had an £8m deficit.
NH
Mr Spencer is also planning to distance ICAP from the cash equities business, which involves about 200 brokers in the company’s voice broker arm. Sources said that ICAP would either wind down the business, go into partnership with another cash equities firm or sell the business.
Although all three options are said to be under consideration, it is believed that Mr Spencer would rather concentrate on fast growing and successful parts of ICAP including the post-trade division, electronic brokerage and over-the-counter derivatives.
BE
Weren’t we given smacked wrists for suggesting exactly this?
NH
the company had calls from analysts post an ML session when the rumour was floated
NH
Statement re press comment
Following weekend press comment, ICAP confirms that the group is conducting a broad ranging strategic review of some of its cash equities businesses. A further announcement will be made once the review is completed.
NH
about 200 people in ICap’s equity business
NH
I was never really sure why they launched it
NH
or where it was going to fit into the market
NH
they invested quite heavily
NH
poaching a load of big hitters from Citi
NH
division makes a high teens millions pound loss at the operating line at the moment
NH
so shutting it is probably not the worst idea
NH
I have some comment on this
NH
ICAP has, this morning, confirmed that it is conducting a ‘broad ranging’
strategic review of some of its cash equity businesses.
This announcement follows reports in the Daily Telegraph on 13/2, which
predicts there will be a ‘sale, partnership agreement with a bigger player or
a running down of that business to be announced before the end of the
financial year’.
NH
Clearly this announcement follows the profit warning issued on 5/2, which
highlighted that ICAP’s new businesses were experiencing mixed results,
with the ship broking and cash equities businesses identified as having
faced tough trading.
Moreover, the Group also appears to have experienced lower volumes in
its core voice broking business as increased risk aversion lowered activity.
NH
Notwithstanding these shorter-term issues, we believe that ICAP remains
the best-placed in the IDB sector to benefit from the proposed reforms to
the OTC markets, given its superiority in e-broking and post-trade services.
The proposed Volcker reforms do increase uncertainty, but we expect the
impact of reduced bank proprietary trading could be limited.
We are currently re-working our 2011 forecasts to take account of the
recent trading update. For 2010, we expect adj. PBT of £310m, adj. EPS
of 28.4p & DPS of 17.2p.
NH
were also telling us for weeks
NH
how the Volcker rule wouldn’t really hit them
NH
because prop trading was such a small bit of IB’s operations
NH
anyway, we shall have to be more careful of their spin in future
BE
Worth reading the autopsy of Icap Equities by our colleague Jeremy Grant
BE
Oops.
Icap’s confirmation on Monday morning that it is “conducting a broad ranging strategic review of some of its cash equities businesses” marks a rare mis-step by Michael Spencer, the interdealer broker’s founder and chief executive.
Back in December 2008, when the devastation from the Lehman Brothers collapse was in full view, Icap decided this was the perfect time to branch out into cash equities. It was a departure for a firm founded on over-the-counter derivatives trading.
BE
The idea was to fill a perceived gap between the battered large banks and their sales and trading operations and the small boutique brokers, which were likely to have cashflow problems amid devastated markets.
It was thought there was an opportunity to take the ground that had been occupied by mid-tier players like ABN Amro, Dresdner Kleinwort and Bear Stearns.
Icap hired two people to spearhead the push: Glenn Poulter, who had been head of European equities trading sales at Citi, and Daryl Bowden, formerly at UK broker Execution.
The two men decided that now was the perfect time to recruit talent: carnage in the City meant that top equities sales and trading people and research analysts could be scooped up for nothing. It took them only 15 minutes to persuade Mr Spencer at the time to proceed with the plan, which eventually saw Icap hiring 210 people globally. One of their top hires was Phil Hoady, who ran portfolio trading at UBS.
This made Icap the second largest net hirer of talent in the immediate aftermath of the crisis after Barclays, which was also busy bottom-fishing for talent to build up what is now a substantial equities trading business.
Icap declined to say how much it spent on the drive, but equities formed a “major part” of the £38m that Icap spent in the six months to November last year.
As sensible as that seemed, one of Icap’s first misjudgements can be seen from a slide that Mr Bowden showed on an investor roadshow in New York in March 2008: “Cash equities volumes are likely still to show significant growth”.
Sadly that hasn’t happened. Volumes are persistently low, especially in Europe, and look set to stay that way.
NH
someone was asking for Libor
NH
yes, we have not looked at that in an age
NH
real old skool credit crunch stuff
NH
RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH DOLLAR RATES FIX AT 0.25000 PCT VS 0.25000 PCT ON FRIDAY -BBA
NH
and that’s all that Reuters will provide at the moment
NH
UK stuff when we get it
NH
some unbelievable quotes of the day
NH
RTRS-ECB’S ORPHANIDES ON GREEK SPREADS – SOMETIMES MARKETS EXPERIENCE OVERREACTIONS THAT DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS -BBG
11:28 15Feb10 RTRS-ECB’S ORPHANIDES – I TRUST THAT THE PERSEVERANCE OF THE GREEK PEOPLE AND THE DETERMINATION OF THE GREEK GOVERNMENT WILL PREVAIL – BBG
11:28 15Feb10 RTRS-ECB’S ORPHANIDES – DEFAULT OF A EURO-AREA SOVEREIGN IS UNTHINKABLE
BE
I too trust that the perseverance of the Greek people will prevail.
NH
that’s why I so worried
NH
RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH EURO RATES FIX AT 0.59719 PCT VS 0.59719 PCT ON FRIDAY-BBA
NH
RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH EURO RATES FIX AT 0.59719 PCT VS 0.59719 PCT ON FRIDAY-BBA
NH
nothing much to see here
NH
RTRS-LIBOR THREE-MONTH STERLING RATES FIX AT 0.63938 PCT VS 0.63563 PCT ON FRIDAY-BBA
NH
put the wrong one in above
BE
Yup – Rio top of the pile at the moment.
Rio Tinto (RIO:LSE): Last: 3,314, up 107.5 (+3.35%), High: 3,315, Low: 3,260, Volume: 2.06m
BE
And that’s on the back of a Merrill Lynch upgrade
NH
is this on the back of the pricing negotiations?
BE
Market out by 50%, they’re saying
BE
And they’re also positive on the Year of the Tiger bounce
BE
Can’t now shake the image of Stalone running up the stairs.
BE
Anyway, here’s the note.
BE
Three reasons to buy Rio Tinto
We add Rio Tinto to our “Europe 1” list of top investment ideas. We see three
main reasons to buy Rio Tinto. 1) Iron ore. Rio gives the best European largecap
exposure to iron ore prices. 2) Seasonality. Chinese demand for other key
products, e.g. copper, typically surges after Chinese New Year. 3) Valuation. We
estimate Rio is on a single digit PER in 2010 and 2011 (9.5x, 7.6x respectively).
BE
Iron ore: Our top-of-market +50% could be too low
We think that the market is materially underestimating the potential iron ore price
settlement for JFY 2010. We believe that our +50% estimate is at the top end of
Street consensus and yet current spot prices suggest +80-90% is possible. BHP
have been quite outspoken on their view of the spot market. They believe that it is
deep and liquid enough to be a good indicator of current supply/demand
fundamentals. We concur and believe there is risk to the upside on our forecasts.
Marking to spot iron ore for 2010 would mean a 21% upgrade to earnings estimates.
BE
Chinese New Year February 14th this year
In recent years we have seen metal demand and prices surge post Chinese New
Year. For example, the copper price has tended to correct into New Year and
rally afterwards. We also think that concerns on Chinese tightening measures are
overdone. Our analysis suggests that investors would have done well to “buy”
miners on the first tightening action by China in 2006, for example.
BE
Valuation: Single-digit PER is too low, discount to DCF
Since 1997, Rio’s mean PER has been 13.4x with +/- 1 standard deviation,
suggesting a range of 10.2-16.5x PER. We estimate Rio is trading on 9.5x 2010E
EPS, 7.6x 2011E EPS. Iron ore upside could make shares look even cheaper. Rio
is also trading at an 18% discount to our DCF valuation, a classic buy signal for
large diversified miners which can trade on premiums of 30-40% during up-cycles.
NH
we have had a sighting
NH
of the lesser spotted deal
NH
now, there used to be lots of these creatures in Western Europe
NH
but around 2008 they started to die out
NH
the species is almost extinct
NH
but in the US it is managing to survive
NH
and they have had some success in breeding in deals
NH
and Yara International
BE
aren’t they into potash
NH
and they have gate-crashed a long-running takeover saga in the US today
NH
by launching a $4.1bn offer for Terra Industries
NH
and at the same time doing a big cash call to fund it
NH
which with all those IPOs being pulled
NH
will be music to the ears of investment bankers everywhere
NH
deal looks pretty expensive though
NH
and Yara shares are off 5.6% at the moment
NH
I have some comment on this
NH
if people are interested
NH
Management has announced an agreed all-cash offer for Terra Industries at
$41.1/share a 23.6% premium to Friday’s close. The deal is expected to be
completed mid-2010 and is to be part financed by a rights issue, scheduled for
May, of $2.0-2.5bn. We see the deal as attractive to Yara’s shareholders from a
point of view of EPS enhancement (circa 10% on our estimates pre synergies),
valuation (2010e EV/EBITDA of 6.8x pre-synergies), global market share (this
should take Yara to around 10% market share globally from currently 8%). Finally
it should improve its positioning on the cost curve, given the lower cost of gas in
the US, and bring synergies from a key import region in the global nitrogen
industry.
NH
Yara offers USD 41.1 per share, which is a 23.6% premium over
Friday’s close, corresponding to NOK 4.7bn in equity value. Yara
expects annual synergies of NOK ~360m, which is valued at NOK
1,500m – depending on the probability of success. The net effect is
a premium of NOK 3,200m or NOK 11 per share. Assuming that
Terra was fairly priced on Friday, Yara’s share price should drop by
4.5%. Strategically however, the deal makes sense, as it increases
exposure to US gas, which looks to be structurally cheaper than EU
gas. The net value effect of this is more difficult to quantify, but it
should offset some of the premium. As such, the price drop should
less than 4.5%. We will check our NOK 250 target price after having
digested the details of the deal, but we believe the stock will drop on
the news.
NH
We consider acquisition of Terra makes a good strategic match
Yara has announced a bid for Terra, approved by the boards of both companies, for
USD 41.1 per share putting Terra’s enterprise value at USD 4.3bn. We regard this as
a strong strategic acquisition that, compared with Yara’s own valuation, is accretive.
The only negative is the guaranteed subscription rights issue at USD 2.0-USD 2.5bn.
With estimated synergies of USD 120m Terra is valued at an EV/EBITDA 2010Ex 6.3
and EV/EBIT of 7.3x, significantly lower than Yara’s valuation. Yara has a strong track
record of value creating acquisitions
NH
and finally this is from Morgan Stanley
NH
Quick Comment: Yara has announced that it has made
a bid for Terra Industries, which, on Bloomberg
estimates, values the company at $4,703m EV, implying
a 2010 EV/sales ratio of 2.48x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x. If
approved, the deal will be financed partly through a
rights issue of $2-2.5bn (~20% of Yara’s market cap),
which will be fully underwritten – details to be
announced at a later stage. We estimate a post-deal
2010 net debt/EBITDA range of 2.3-2.6x excluding
pensions. The rationale for the deal makes sense to us
as it would give Yara access to the US markets and to
lower US gas prices. However, valuation and
uncertainty over details of the rights issue could weigh
on the shares in the near term.
NH
that’s for our European readers
BE
Actually, there’s been another deal sighted this morning
BE
Yeah – there’s a bit of comment from Merrill on this.
BE
Rating cut to Underperform on pot’l buyout of Zain-Africa
Media reports suggest that the Zain’s board has accepted a US$10.7bn bid from
Bharti for Zain’s African assets. Bharti has confirmed exclusive talks with Zain
until Mar ’25. Although deal finalisation could take some time, we have cut our
rating on Bharti from Buy to U/P for 3 key reasons: 1) prima facie deal valuations
seem rich, 2) growth outlook for Zain’s African portfolio seems unexciting, & 3) the
potential deal could materially stress Bharti’s bal-sheet. Assuming debt-financing
& no synergies, the potential deal could dilute Bharti’s EPS by ~10-15%.
BE
Eye-watering valuations; 40-50% premium over MTN
The potential transaction reportedly values the Zain group’s African footprint at an
EV/EBITDA (10E) of ~8x versus the traded value of Zain’s closest competitor at
~5-6x EV/EBITDA (10E) and Bharti’s pre-deal EV/EBITDA at ~7.5x Mar’11E.
While some premium over MTN would likely be justified for 100% control & scale
of operations, a 40-50% premium looks very rich to us.
BE
Asset attractiveness questionable as growth is slowing
Prima facie, growth momentum in the African markets appears to be slowing with
wireless population penetration already close to 40%-levels. Also note that Zain’s
overall RoE (~19%) & RoCE (~13%) are lower than both MTN & Bharti despite
higher/similar EBITDA margins. Zain operates in 15 markets of Africa that have a
population of ~450mn. Zain-Africa has ~43.8mn forecast YE2009 customers and
its principal markets are Nigeria (#2; 36% of ZainAfrica’s sub base), Tanzania (#1;
11%), DRC (#1; 9%), Kenya (#2; 5%) and Zambia (#1; 7%).
BE
Bharti’s balance-sheet likely to get stretched in short-term
Assuming 100% debt-financing of the Zain acquisition, we estimate Bharti’s post
deal net-debt/EBITDA at ~2.4x FY11E vs pre-deal levels of ~0.4x FY11E. Postdeal,
Bharti’s leverage would rank at the top-end of listed Indian wireless majors.
BE
India operations remain a 10-15% growth story
For the India operations, we currently forecast earnings growth at ~10-15% over
the next 2-3 years. We think any strong positive surprise on this front is unlikely
as industry consolidation will likely be a slow process, if at all. At the recent MLIndia
conference, Bharti suggested that it will be able to keep EBITDA margins at
~40% levels over the medium term. This is largely in line with our expectations.
Revised PO at Rs290/sh
Our PO of Rs290/sh values Bharti at a standalone PE of ~11.5x Mar ‘11E and a
post-Zain PE of ~13x CY10E & EV/EBITDA of ~6.7x. The consolidated valuation
places Bharti at ~5-10% premium vs GEM wireless majors to allow for likely
stronger earnings growth of Bharti-Zain (~10%) vs GEM wireless growth at ~7%.
NH
they have paid up for that
NH
no wonder they have downgraded
NH
that looks to be an almost insane price
BE
Ok – do we want to round off with a bit of smallcap corner?
NH
what about little Dominion resources
NH
struck a deal in Tazanzia
NH
and with that out of the way
NH
they will progress with a fund raising
NH
to develop their prospect in Uganda
NH
is on the same structure as Tullow’s and Heritage
NH
so this is being dubbed the new Heritage
BE
Without the … er … more colourful aspects of Heritage.
NH
and Chopper not everyone agress with your view
NH
some consider it prudent to cap expenditure in one area
NH
so they can focus on one with a greater chance of success
NH
this is from Canaccord
NH
•We had not included anything for Dominion’s acreage onshore Tanzania in our price target given the group’s view that a discovery here is likely to be gas. So, as this farm-out will significantly reduce the cash-strapped company’s capital expenditure in 2010, we regard it as positive news.
NH
Dominion has agreed to farm-out interests in the Mandawa and Kisangire PSA’s onshore Tanzania to Maurel & Prom subject to certain conditions including government approval. Pursuant to the terms of the agreement, Maurel & Prom will acquire 40% interest in the Mandawa PSA and a 35% carried interest in the Kisangire PSA (operated by Heritage Oil), reducing Dominion’s interest to 10% in both cases.
NH
As a result, Dominion’s funding requirement in respect of the Kianika-1 well on the Mandawa licence will be reduced from 100% to 20% of the drilling costs and to 10% of associated expenses. In addition, M & P’s interest in the Mandawa licence will rise to 100% upon the Government of Tanzania agreeing that exploration expenses incurred on other licences can be carried over to the Mandawa licence. At this point, all of Dominion’s costs relating to the Kianika-1 well on the Mandawa licence will also be reimbursed.
NH
•We currently rate Dominion a BUY with a 12-month target price of 11p/share which is based on our estimate of the expected monetary value (EMV) of the Silverback and Chimpanzee prospects less our estimate of the group’s net debt at the end of 2009.
NH
stock unchanged at 6.25p
BE
Right. Well flagged news I guess.
NH
would be interested to know what Debbie things on Dominion’s prospect in Uganda
BE
While in smallcap corner …
BE
Did you catch the intention to float from SuperGroup?
NH
looking to raise £125m
BE
Yes – that does seem to be the main positive of this thing.
BE
For those unaware, SuperGroup does tee-shirts sold in House of Fraser.
NH
I have a pair of their shoes as it happens
NH
didn’t realise it until the weekend
NH
who they were made by that is
BE
Well, the RNS contains some pretty choice tripe
BE
Well, see what you think
BE
SuperGroup is increasingly seen by landlords as a sought after tenant in new developments, along with the likes of international brands such as Apple and Hollister.
BE
The Superdry brand has already attained international recognition, being sold in more than 30 countries, with internet sales in 58 countries. It has benefited from celebrity-generated publicity from the likes of David Beckham, Zac Effron, Helena Christensen, Shakira and Leonardo DiCaprio.
BE
Highly efficient design process – in addition to the core base of non-seasonal wardrobe staples the Group has streamlined the design process to minimise lead times enabling it to react quickly to fashion trends. Additionally, the 10 strong design team led by James Holder aims to set fashion trends by creating future classics, as it did with the iconic “Osaka” T-shirt and “Brad” jacket.
NH
(No Taxloss not as chavy as Cordings. In fact no where near that)
NH
what’s the Brad jacket?
BE
That I don’t know. I doubt it’s sponsored.
BE
But for those interested, the “iconic Osaka T-shirt”
BE
Is a t-shirt with a big number 6 on it.
NH
(Debbie they are doing a fund raising now with Canaccord and Mirabaud. Not sure how much they are looking to raise but BlueGold may underwrite a slug)
BE
Hang on – I found a picture somewhere
BE
There you go. £400m worth.
NH
is Cordings going to float?
BE
I’m unfamiliar with Cordings.
NH
I reckon they should be looking to cash in
NH
as long as they are not PIKed up to the eyeballs
NH
and have a nasty PE backer
NH
does SlowHand own Cordings?
BE
Eric Clapton has shed his rock star image to step in and save an historic gentleman’s outfitters from closure.
Clapton, 59, bought a 50% share in Cordings, which has been in Piccadilly, central London, since 1839, after it got into financial difficulties.
NH
and we need to start winding things u[
NH
now back to Friday’s liquidity rumour
NH
I am hearing the spike higher in sterling
NH
10 mins ago might be connected
NH
Cable traded > 1.5700 after intra-day stops were filled above the 1.5690
Asian peak.
- The source of the flow was fresh EUR-GBP supply from a U.K. account, which
sent the cross back into 0.8670 versus its early session low of 0.8668.
- The cross has struggled since heavy selling pressure went through last week
when it failed to move >200dma around 0.8830. Both Thursday and Friday of
last week saw sizeable selling from two leading U.K. clearers.
NH
last Friday’s liquidity rumour
NH
was all about some UK clearer have problems
BE
Are we done for the day?
NH
but a couple more things
NH
here’s something for GKP watchers
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP:LSE): Last: 81.00, down 0.75 (-0.92%), High: 84.00, Low: 79.00, Volume: 375.27k
NH
RTRS-OIL MINISTER SAYS IRAQ COULD PAY EXPLORATION AND EXTRACTION COSTS OF OIL COMPANIES IN IRAQI KURDISTAN BUT NOT PROFITS
NH
that’s not very good is it, Chopperbear?
BE
Hm. That doesn’t sound like it’s part of the script.
NH
only snaps on that at the moment
NH
Hard to justify doing anything else at this point than waiting for major issues to solidify and technical headwinds to abate.One positive aspect of recent developments is the robustness of debt markets beyond Soveriegn.The performance of TED spread through this period has highlighted the perception that issues are localised and that the performance of US debt highlights the significant amount of capital raising prior to recent issues.However we are concerned by reports this a.m. highlighting the reduction in high yield exposure with the biggest withdrawals last week for 4.5yrs.The declining bid to cover rates in UST’s auctions($16bln 30 yr was 2.36x last week) is concerning but with US govt interest payments just c1.2% of US GDP we are not overly worried at this point.Much comparison is being drawn to 1994 and 2004 where mkts had a significant short term retracement(avg 9%) at the first monetary tightening moves(last 3 months) but with markets higher 6 and 12 months out
NH
The market now seems to be moving towards baking in significantly slower European growth post Greece developments(note CS cut European growth f/casts today) and question does a European slowdown derail US recovery? European corporates have beaten in 75% of earnings reports thus far with c65% showing top line growth.Europe is 23% of US exports and revenue exposure of Europe for US companies is c7-7.5%.With Asia growing c 10x faster than Europe this remains a more important region and therefore we think any subsequent US poor equity performance should be limited(we would highlight Europe is not expensive trading at 12x 2011 cons earnings, UK on 10x).
NH
The importance of China/India remain central to developed equity outlook the extent of this can be seen in that China and India were approximately 85-95% of global growth in Q4.Clearly the move on friday re reserve ratios has caused real shock waves but we remind you that only c10% of fixed asset investments are financed though banks.We remain dollar bulls(v Euro) especially with purchasing power parity pointing to further 10-13% declines in Euro
NH
Last week Private equity pulled a number of IPO’s and with m&a and corporate new issuance having slowest start since 2002 we can expect to see calender pushed back further over coming weeks.However with European Instl cash and Hedge Fund cash at recent highs(note $13,8bln flowed to HF’s in q4 09) we do expect a receptive audience to new issuance on any mkt stability.We remain of the view that market will be benign in short term struggling to make new highs and look to 1040 and 1025 as areas of major support.At these predefined levels we will expect to see decision making and would recommend being 25%/35% net long at 1040 and 50%/max long at 1027.
BE
Any fill on that Iraq story yet?
NH
and I can’t wait for it to fill
NH
The Lunch Wrap needs to go
NH
and we have no staff today
NH
so things could be a little think on the site this afternoon
NH
the market should be pretty quiet
NH
unless Greece blows up
NH
hope you have enjoyed the show
NH
and thanks for logging in