Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:15 on 9 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder Izabella Kaminska, FT
10:26 09Feb10 RTRS-PORTUGUESE 5-YR CDS AT 238.1 BPS FROM 244.7 BPS AT MONDAY’S NEW YORK CLOSE
10:26 09Feb10 RTRS-SPANISH 5-YR CDS AT 168.5 BPS FROM 173.5 BPS AT MONDAY’S NEW YORK CLOSE
Furthermore, latest surveys offer real grounds for hope on the export front with the export orders index in the January manufacturing purchasing managers survey jumping to a record (1996) high. In addition, the export orders balance of the January CBI industrial trends survey improved markedly to a 13-month high.
We are still hopeful that net trade will make a positive contribution to UK growth in 2010 as we believe imports will be limited by only gradually improving domestic demand and we do expect exports to be lifted further by a competitive pound and improved global growth and trade. Unfortunately though, it is by no means a certainty.
story. We believe today’s results underpin our positive view on the
company and reiterate our view that its investment case is very
straightforward: 1. Stock trades at Dec-09 NAV of 438p, 2. 6%
dividend yield, 3. Today’s results make us very comfortable on our
forecasts (our year-end NAV forecast of 464p only requires 3% capital
growth), 4. 272,000 sq ft of new lettings and still 655,000 sq ft of
office available, 5. £3.2bn of cash and unused credit lines at 48bp: the
company sees further investment opportunities within 18 months (our
view: no need to rush), 6. Income growth of 1.4%, 13 years lease
length (only 7% to expire in three years), 11.2 years debt maturity and
94% occupancy, 7. Net portfolio yield of 5.8% and gross topped-up of
6.7%. Overall, we believe this is the type of company that should
appeal to investors: what you see is what you get with a potential
surprise to the upside. Please see our alert, sent out separately today,
for more details.
and consensus of 6.1p) due to better rental income (9% ahead, mainly from 1.4%
organic rental growth over the quarter while we anticipated negative 0.3% growth) and
£10m lower financial costs. NAV is perfectly in line with estimates at 438p, up 18% qoq
compared to 435p expected by SG and consensus due to asset value growth of 8.2%
(SGe of 6.8%) on a net equivalent yield of 6.5% (down 60bp). About £10m p.a. of new
rents (or 1.9% of additional rental income) are to be generated from new lettings (retail
and City offices) and rent review in retail. Close to 25,000sqm are under offer in City
office buildings (Ropemaker and Broadgate Tower). BLND has about 65,000 sqm of
additional available office space or at least about £20m of additional rents (4% of total
income). £368m of new investments and developments have been spent thus far year to
date.
are already 6% ahead of the consensus for the full year NAV with an expected reported
NAV of 471p, anticipating an asset value growth of 4% in calendar Q1 2010. Our current
forecast for full year cash flow looks conservative for 2010e as does our forecast for
organic rental growth in 2010e. We are respectively 1% and 6% below the consensus
for 2009e and 2010e underlying EPS. We will also have to review our CAPEX and
investment figures for this year (£160m expected) and for the next two years (£370m
expected), as these also appear conservative.
Potential impact on share price/recommendation We believe better reported figures
and outlook for EPS should drive share price gains as we estimate BLND is undervalued
by c. 30% on our current forecast with a net initial yield on EV of 7.0%, dividend yield of
5.9%, and discount to triple NAV of 12% for 2009e.
However, Harbinger remains interested in acquiring control of Inmarsat and is therefore actively considering whether to pursue the relevant regulatory and competition approvals in order to be able to make an offer for Inmarsat in the future. Assuming there is an acceptable conclusion to the regulatory approval process Harbinger would intend to re-enter into discussions with the board of Inmarsat regarding the terms of an offer and endeavour to seek a recommendation from the Inmarsat board at that time.
A number of Regulatory Approvals will need to be obtained in respect of the Proposed Offer, including approval from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. The Potential Offeror expects that it will take approximately 12 to 18 months to obtain all of the Regulatory Approvals – a period which significantly exceeds a normal offer period. Therefore, prior to any offer being made by the Potential Offeror for Inmarsat, the Potential Offeror will seek to obtain the principal required consents, including those which are expected to take the longest to obtain. Further details of the Regulatory Approvals are set out in the section below entitled ‘Regulatory Approvals and Timetable’.
There is no certainty that the Regulatory Approvals will be obtained, or that they will be obtained on terms satisfactory to the Potential Offeror.
Terms of Proposed Offer
As a result of the uncertainty in relation to the Regulatory Approvals it is not the intention of the Potential Offeror to announce the formal terms or structure of any offer at this stage.
flush out a trade buyer, and this has not happened.
On the other hand, part of the overhang has been cleared, and with ITV having
come back to c. 50p, it can probably progress from here in a pro-cyclical market
(perhaps it will return!).
comes back into focus. If our forecasts are correct, the group would have had
year-end net debt (fiscal 2010) of £1.5bn. With £200m from the ITV placing and
£200m to come from EDS (EDS stated last week that it will pay £200m to BSkyB in
respect of its recent law suit , which found in favour of BSKyB, and this £200m is
a minimum payment; however EDS is still appealing), this would fall to £1.1bn vs
forecast 2011E EBITDA of £1.4bn. BSkyB is likely to wish to retain its flexibility,
particularly until after the EDS appeal. However, BSkyB should generate around
£0.5bn of cash post dividend in 2011, so over time, the pressure will build. We
do not envisage an investment cycle above and beyond our model (scale of
broadband sub-base makes fibre build nonsensical) — perhaps HD volumes
could be 0.5m higher in 2011, and eat £100m post tax, but this does not change
the dynamic. We believe the balance sheet will start to look inefficient
the payTV review in March (probably) for the stock to perform. In the meantime,
downside feels limited and over time the upside feels significant.
achievable in 2012 on flat UK TV advertising 2010E and slight growth 2011E. At
the 50p level, we argue the stock can start to outperform again. Our concern is
near term on the cycle. Overtime we would expect ITV to enjoy market share
benefits as we think BBC will to some extent see its wings clipped, and Channel 4
and Five look likely to struggle against the back drop of secular and cyclical
challenges.
**Overhang cleared. Sky will retain the remaining 7.5% stake for “medium term”.
**Demand for shares seemingly demonstrated last night, with £196m placing done in an
hour, 4% below the closing price.
**Archie Norman (Chairman), and Adam Crozier (New CEO) are said to have bought stock
in placing according to Daily Telegraph, showing confidence in the level.
Negatives:
**Bid for ITV less likely. Though no bid priced into shares, some may have considered this
stake sale an opportunity for a bid from foreign player as speculated in the press.
**Some may speculate that Sky, with a good window on the advertising market, chose to
sell ITV now rather than drag it out for the 6-12 months we thought they would be given to
sell.
In the medium term, over the last 13 years, 8 times out of 10 (please see our 23
September 2009 note “Reed Elsevier – Now that dust has settled” for more details) a new
Media Chief Executive, and his/her first strategic review is bad for share price performance.
We are concerned that ITV, with its structural issues, will be no exception. From the time
Adam Crozier joins in April/May, we believe the risk may be on downside.
In short term however, we are happy to retain Neutral rating TP 50p.
BSkyB decided yesterday not to make a further appeal against the Competition
Commission’s decision that it must sell down its stake in ITV from 17.9% to less
than 7.5%. Sky subsequently announced that it had placed a 10.4% stake in ITV
at 48.5p. It would appear that Sky, having reached the decision not to appeal, did
not want to be left as a forced seller which could have put downward pressure on
the value of its stake.
Sky’s stake has, depending on market sentiment, been seen as both a potential
overhang and a strategic block. The sale of the stake removes an element of
uncertainty for ITV and the relatively small discount would suggest that there is
appetite amongst investors for ITV as a play on a cyclical recovery and
management change. In the event of an ongoing recovery we see upside to 64p
and see scope for a further 5-10% upside from residual regulatory change not
factored into our forecasts. We also see scope for management to create value
through the adoption of a subscription model, initially for its digital channels and
eventually for the whole ITV family. ITV could also consider spinning out its
production business and using it as a vehicle to create the UK’s leading
independent production house.
The ITV stake only represents c3.8% of Sky’s valuation and selling down the
stake removes a distraction for both management and investors in our view.
Given our assumption that ITV does not pay a dividend in 2010 the sale should be
slightly (<0.5%) earnings enhancing and the value realised for its 10% stake is in
line with that factored into our valuation and PO of 790p.
I enjoy reading your blog and would like to know if you are interested in covering the current conflict Air Traffic Controllers like myself are going through due to Minister José Blanco’s witch-hunt against us and privatizing the Spanish Air Traffic Control services.
Thank you very much for your time and attention.
Kind regards.
- Notes EU treaties allow for collective support trhough EU states need to face
issues
- (Referring to the earlier chatter surrounding Trichet’s early departure from
Oz)
- NB: Fitch are holding a teleconference on Euro area sovereign risks today at 1500pm (GMT) on prospects for Greece, Portugal & Spain.
By Beat Balzli
Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.
But worries over the pace of social change and dislocation are balanced by the belief that life will get better, according to the survey undertaken at the weekend.
“I believe the FSA has made great strides in ensuring that such individuals are in place in the UK and I am sure that after I leave they will continue to do invaluable work to ensure financial stability and protect the interests of consumers.”
a medium-term buying opportunity: The 105%
upside to our bull case of £19.44 looks too compelling to
ignore compared to the c.15% downside risk to our bear
case of £8.22. When Xstrata was at c.£13 just one
month ago the risk-reward was more even, but the
current sell-off (without any significant changes in
medium-term fundamentals) presents the first real
buying opportunity since Q3, in our view.
trough) + £2.20 cost savings + £2 of de-gearing):
Another way to gain comfort on the downside is to start
from the December 2008 trough of £3.4/share and work
back from there. Since then, XTA has instituted a
significant cost cutting programme in zinc and nickel
businesses worth £2.2 (Transformation Unraveled,
17/06/09), and de-gearing of c$9.5bn is worth another
£2, on our estimates.
bear cases less likely: Back in January 2009, based
on the commodity prices at that time our estimates
suggested an EBITDA of $5.9bn and net debt of $16bn
by 2009e for XTA – bringing it very close to the 3x
debt/EBITDA covenant (with a possibility that it might
have to dispose of ‘crown jewels’ at distressed prices to
pay down the debt, which provided the bear case on the
stock even at low valuations). After the rights issue and
4 quarters of rising commodity prices (and consequent
de-gearing) net debt/EBITDA is low at 0.6x in 2010e.
contracts settled at $85/t last month equate to c40% of
XTA’s EBITDA and provide much more visibility on
earnings than many of its peers, in spite of the market’s
perception that it is the more leveraged commodity play.
Cheap on P/E anyway you look at it – Buy: 7.1x
2010e; 7.3x mark-to-market commodity price; 10.4x
normalized earnings.
calculations, the issuance of shares is capped at 3.4bn and a price of 44p (the
current exchange price – VWAP since 5 Feb is 48.3p). Below 44p, the company
tops-up the difference between the equity issued (£1.5bn less 3.9bn
shares*exchange price) and the £1.5bn value of the debt with either cash or further
issuance of ECNs (contingent convertibles). Whilst there is a potential 14 days’
worth of trading volume which could flow back, we estimate actual flow-back of
about 3-4 days.
increasingly shun sovereign risk given the low visibility and
deteriorating fundamentals contrast with better visibility and
improving leverage profiles at banks. LLOY uniquely benefits given
its wholesale funding exposure. Granular margin analysis suggests
LLOY could make a profit in 2010
Given fundamental deterioration and low visibility in sovereign risk is contrasted
with improving fundamental improvement and increasing visibility around bank
risk – particularly where leverage is concerned, we are making the call that investor
appetite for bank credit will increase materially. We expect that the
implementation of Basel 3, which is incredibly bondholder friendly will amplify this
effect. An increase in demand for bank credit will benefit wholesale funded banks
and in the UK, LLOY is set to benefit the most. As a result, we continue – as we
have written since September 2009 – to expect wholesale funding cost
improvement to benefit LLOY’s net interest margin.
We have conducted a granular analysis across the primary components of LLOY’s
net interest margin and now expect 11bps of expansion in 2010. Combined with
flat retail impairments (at 1.25% of loans), we now expect that LLOY will earn
£529m of attributable profit in 2010. The consensus expectation is currently for a
loss of £1.2bn.
$23.0m vs $24.1m last year. Hence this implies in our view, assuming some turns business in the remaining weeks of
the quarter, sales of $26m vs Cazenove $23.8m and consensus $25.6m.
Guidance for Q1 revenues is reassuring in our view. According to our estimates, revenues in Q1 last year excluding the
iPhone 3G reached $21m, which implies underlying yoy revenue growth of 24% in Q1 2010. Assuming a pick up in
demand for audio hubs and audio amplifiers in H2, this is consistent with our $150m revenue forecast for 2010
(revenues up 24%).
Management guidance for 2010 – “encouraging designin traction with new customer product releases improves
confidence of significant revenue growth as Wolfson progresses through in 2010”. Hence, management guides for an
acceleration of revenues in H2 consistent with our 2010 forecast.
growth forecast for 2010. Most of this will derive in our view from the revamped “audio product” portfolio. Wolfson is
benefitting from the smartphone upgrade cycle, whereby smartphones are including more audio features and as such
more “routing” and “amplification” functions. Hence, Wolfson has developed “audio hubs” for this market, securing so far
50 design wins, “many with tier one customers”. We believe that “audio hubs” sell at a 4080% premium to simple audio
chips (codecs). An increase in units and ASPs is supportive of revenue growth in our view.
Wolfson is also benefitting from the launch of smartphones lookalikes which require “audio amplification” products.
Management expects power management revenues to increase but to remain a small share of total sales (incremental
design win with Samsung). Wolfson remains dependent on the success of the Marvell, Freescale and nVidia application
processors in the market.
2011 revenues are more dependent on the continuation of the trend in audio products as well as the pick of sales in
noise cancellation, power management and digital mics. Wolfson is still “engaged with most tier one and tier two”
regarding noisecancellation, no designwin at this stage.
Q2, +27% in Q3 and +60% in Q4) driven by a recovery in endmarkets (handsets units +10% and smartphones +25
35%) as well as a rampup of new audio products introduced last year. A recovery in YoY revenue growth is usually
positive for Wolfson’s share price development (if the EV/sales valuation is not too demanding, as it is today on 0.8x
2010E). Investors in CSR have seen a strong recovery in the share price in 2009 on the back of a recovery in CSR’s YoY
revenue growth (CSR’s new CEO started one year before Wolfson’s CEO Mike Hickey to revamp the product portfolio,
hence we believe that Wolfson is c. 12 months behind CSR in terms of revenue recovery).
Management has improved the product lineup in accordance with customers’ needs. Wolfson has lost market share to
Cirrus Logic which is now shipping in most Apple iPod/iPhone products and management is still working hard to win back
a socket with Apple even if it might take a while. Dialog is now the main supplier of power management chips for Apple
iPod/iPhone products, and we feel Wolfson is still struggling to offer an attractive power management offering. We
expect the good news in 2010 to come from complex audio converters, noisecancellation chips as well as digital
microphones.
Management expects to see an improvement in design wins and order intake trends in 2010. Management is confident
about the new products lineup at this stage, but, in our view, some investors anticipate delays, as it is often the case in
this industry. However, we believe that if demand for new products has not improved by the end of 2010, it may prompt
the company to review its current strategy and cost structure.
Based on our new forecasts, Wolfson trades on 0.7x 2011E EV/Sales and 19x 2011E PER, declining to 0.6x EV/Sales
and 11x PER respectively assuming $200m revenues in 2011E.OUTPERFORM
and I think that the system today, although it’s not in rude
good health, as a result of intervention by government and
central banks, the system survived. There are
signs of normalization.”
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS 2008 BONUSES WERE DOWN BY 50 PERCENT :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS CORE TIER 1 HAS DOUBLED, LIQUIDITY QUADRUPLED
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS KEY ISSUES ARE BANKS’ LENDING AND PAY
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS TRUST HAS BROKEN BETWEEN BANKS AND PUBLIC
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS `WE ARE SENSITIVE’ TO BONUS ISSUE :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS 2008 BONUSES WERE DOWN BY 50 PERCENT :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS CORE TIER 1 HAS DOUBLED, LIQUIDITY QUADRUPLED
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS KEY ISSUES ARE BANKS’ LENDING AND PAY
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS TRUST HAS BROKEN BETWEEN BANKS AND PUBLIC
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS SYSTEM SERVED BY MAKING BIG BANKS SAFER
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS NO LINK BETWEEN BANK SIZE AND FAILURE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS BANKS ARE MUCH SAFER TODAY THAN 3 THREE AGO
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS RISKS IN COMPLEX BANKS ARE MANAGEABLE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS BANK HAS 30 BILLION POUND LOSS BUFFER
BARCLAYS SAYS FIREWALL NEEDED FOR INVESTMENT AND DEPOSIT BANK
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS HARD FOR BANK TO `WALK AWAY’ FROM SUBSIDIARY
BARCLAYS CEO CONFIDENT THAT BANKS WILL BECOME `MORE RESILIENT’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS FEELS `GRATITUDE TO GOVERNMENT’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS BANK `STRESS-TESTED IN BRUTAL WAY’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS BANKING SYSTEM IN BETTER HEALTH
Other challenges include:
1. Deteriorating fundamentals in India as intense competition bites (underlying mobile growth was 7% in Q3 but could go ex-growth in Q4).
2. The rapidly maturing US market which impacts the fundamental value of VZW and reinforces our belief that any early reinstatement of the VZW dividend is unlikely.
3. Intangible capex – spectrum is a strategic resource and despite claims of ‘not being desperate for spectrum’ a mobile company can never have enough!
4. New spectrum could trigger data-centric new entrants.
