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Markets Live transcript 9 Feb 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:15 on 9 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder Izabella Kaminska, FT

NH
Right welcome to ML etc
NH
Bryce is here with me
NH
Along with a special un-co-operative guest
NH
But before we introduce her.
NH
I want to introduce you to our latest line of headgear
NH
This is our new tin hat – our new strip.
NH
It is soooo 2010.
NH
Everyone will be wearing this already.
NH
Here it is
BE
………. er, Neil?
BE
Are you OUT OF YOUR MIND???
BE
Is that a Spanish conquistador’s hat?
NH
Certainly is.
NH
Shinny, innit??
BE
Okaaaaaaaaaay …….
BE
the background here is that Izy got into a real storm yesterday with this post.
BE
If you missed it
BE
that is post about the Spanish development minister blaming Spain’s woes on some sort of dark forces
BE
foreign media, speculators, that sort of thing.
NH
And it drew 100 or so angry comments – on both sides.
NH
AV regulars and some new readers from, er
NH
Spain
NH
Murphy had to shut down comments eventually
NH
But not before the whole matter had become a big issue in the Spanish press.
11:06AM
NH
So, without any further ado we are going to rename AV Blog de Izabella Kaminska
NH
And make way for the lady her self — her on ML.
IK
OK, OK
IK
I’m only coming on here if I can apologise
NH
For what? Fearless reporting?
NH
For drawing out a fresh line of debate in the Euro sovereign debt crisis
BE
I think you’ve provided an important piece of intelligence for all market participants here.
BE
Lesson: some people are nuts.
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
IK
No
IK
No
IK
I’m here to apologise and say that I had not intension of offending anyone.
IK
And im not part of some conspiracy or anything like that.
IK
I love Spain.
IK
And I love Spaniards
IK
had not intension of offending anyone – we were just picking up stuff that had already appeared on Expansion.
IK
I only used a Google translation because I do not speak Spanish and Javier was busy on the commods front.
IK
And anyway it was Murphy who made me do it.
NH
That’s right blame Murph
NH
we all do
IK
And now I can’t got to Spain. Ever.
IK
Imagine that. Just because of stupid AV post, that I was made to do.
IK
I like Spain and I’m sorry. And I just wish people would forgive me.
NH
I suppose what some of our new readers yesterday didn’t understand is that we generally diss everyone here, regardless of nationality.
BE
In fact, we are only writing about Spain right now because were bored of doing Brown over and other wide-eyes.
NH
What, you meaning that Mike Lynch – he’s always good for a conspiracy theory.
BE
Yeah
BE
but at least he doesn’t have a Facebook abuse machine
BE
that threatens to kill your parents if you EVER say something negative about Autonomy again.
NH
Not yet
NH
Anyway, Izy you’ve done your apology
NH
Not the full dogeza – but it sounded heartfelt enough
BE
Is there a Spanish version?
NH
disculpa
BE
I hope you to god you didn’t get that from Google translate
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
BE
I hope you to god you didn’t get that from Google translate
NH
(Business Pages – what are you on about???)
NH
We’d better get on, before we get in more trouble.
NH
Thanks Izy
11:12AM
NH
Wider market then
NH
and
NH
we are up
BE
FTSE’s ahead 10 at 5102
NH
which is not bad
NH
given the overnight performance of Wall Street
NH
In the US, the Dow crossed and closed through 10,000 again last night. This is the 58th time we’ve crossed through 10,000 in either direction since we first moved above this landmark back on 29 March 1999
NH
an interesting little fact I thought
NH
anyhow
NH
Sov CDS across Europe has tightened a touch this morning
NH
and that’s helping the equity market
NH
RTRS-GREEK 5-YR CDS AT 411.4 BPS FROM 425.6 BPS AT MONDAY’S NEW YORK CLOSE
10:26 09Feb10 RTRS-PORTUGUESE 5-YR CDS AT 238.1 BPS FROM 244.7 BPS AT MONDAY’S NEW YORK CLOSE
10:26 09Feb10 RTRS-SPANISH 5-YR CDS AT 168.5 BPS FROM 173.5 BPS AT MONDAY’S NEW YORK CLOSE
NH
although
NH
sterling is weak
NH
against both the dollar and the euro today
NH
$1.5580 cable
NH
and a euro buys 0.8795p
NH
I believe this weakness is on the back of trade data
BE
Yeah – got the ever reliable Howard Archer to provide a bit of context there.
NH
(Daddy link pls)
NH
oh yes pls
BE
The total trade deficit disappointingly and unexpectedly widened in December as imports rose more than exports. This suggests that net trade was negative in the fourth quarter of 2009 and dilutes hopes that GDP growth could be revised up from the preliminary estimate of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Net trade made a negative contribution of 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP, thereby preventing the economy from at least stabilizing.
BE
The main factor behind the larger trade deficit in December was the traded goods deficit excluding oil spiking up to an 11-month high of £7.2 billion. This was the consequence of imports jumping 4.7% while exports rose 2.5%. Imports were inflated by a £225 million jump in aircraft in December while imports of cars rose by £281 million as they were pushed up by the higher demand for cars resulting from the government’s scrappage scheme. The fact that imported cars have risen so appreciably has diluted some of the overall gains to the economy resulting from the car scrappage scheme.
BE
Even stripping out the erratic impact of aircraft in December, it is disappointing that imports of traded goods rose more than exports, and it does raise questions as to whether or not net trade can make a decent positive contribution to growth going forward and help the economy to rebalance. At least though, exports are showing signs of picking up as they are supported by sterling’s weakness and improving global growth and trade.
BE
And a positive interpretation of the trade data is that it may reflect UK domestic demand improving.

Furthermore, latest surveys offer real grounds for hope on the export front with the export orders index in the January manufacturing purchasing managers survey jumping to a record (1996) high. In addition, the export orders balance of the January CBI industrial trends survey improved markedly to a 13-month high.

We are still hopeful that net trade will make a positive contribution to UK growth in 2010 as we believe imports will be limited by only gradually improving domestic demand and we do expect exports to be lifted further by a competitive pound and improved global growth and trade. Unfortunately though, it is by no means a certainty.

BE
Overall, the latest data are disappointing for UK growth prospects with the trade deficit widening in December and retail sales faltering markedly in January according to the British Retail Consortium survey. This does little for nerves over the strength and sustainability of the recovery!
NH
So no Q4 GDP revision coming
NH
not good
NH
although the BRC survey
NH
seems to be down to the snow
NH
as for gilts
NH
let’s have a quick look
NH
10-year gilt is up 3.963%
11:17AM
NH
OKay
NH
thanks Carlo
NH
just had a look at the link
NH
and the three hedge funds looking to bring down Spain are
NH
Brevan Howard, Moore Capital and good old John Paulson
NH
and we are of course
NH
in league with them
NH
well, Izy is
BE
Anyway, can we get off of the macro stuff?
BE
There must be something happening as stock level that’s worth talking about.
NH
yes, yes
NH
there is
11:19AM
NH
BHP Billiton
NH
now then
NH
not appreciated by everybody
NH
but it has a rather large oil & gas business
BE
Indeed it does.
NH
in fact there has been some talk in the past of BHP spinning it off
NH
it is that big
NH
that’s a link to some facts and figures
NH
Now
NH
the rumour this morning is
NH
and this is pretty RAW RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
is that BHP
NH
and its enormous cash pile
NH
are eyeing a bid for BG
BG Group (BG:LSE): Last: 1,104, up 9.5 (+0.87%), High: 1,111, Low: 1,084, Volume: 4.78m
BE
Hm.
BE
That rumour seems a bit convenient.
NH
why?
BE
Last week BG slides after cutting production forecasts.
BE
And suddenly, a couple of days later, it’s going to be bought by BHP.
NH
and BHP
NH
is linked with a different acquisition every week
NH
potash was the last
BE
Indeed. And BHP’s long been rumoured to be looking at Woodside and the like on the oil side.
NH
but surely BG would be too big a mouthful
NH
the market cap is £38bn
BE
Yes.
NH
and then with a premium
NH
what £60bn
NH
do BHP have the balls to do that?
BE
This seems one of those “vaguely plausible” stories rather than “likely”.
NH
it would turn them from a mining company
NH
into an oil & gas company
NH
can’t see it happening
BE
An O&G company with mediocre production for a few years, and a huge development pipeline.
BE
It’s not what BHP shareholders bought, I’d have thought.
BE
I’m sticking my neck on the line and saying this is nonsense.
NH
while we are in the oil world
NH
seen GKP this morning?
NH
got down to 70p
NH
rallied since
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP:LSE): Last: 76.25, down 0.5 (-0.65%), High: 78.25, Low: 70.00, Volume: 2.43m
BE
Oh dear.
NH
actually the GKP liberation front
NH
are pussy cats compared
NH
with the Swine Protection League
NH
those guys know how to kick off a war in the blog world
NH
anyway
NH
enough of that
NH
one of the Liberation Front has just appered on the right
11:26AM
NH
More stock stuff
BE
Sure.
BE
British Land mentioned on the right – should we have a look?
NH
ok
NH
then
NH
right the share price
British Land Co (BLND:LSE): Last: 450.30, up 12.2 (+2.78%), High: 452.70, Low: 437.10, Volume: 2.98m
NH
and that’s on a valuation update
NH
for three months to the end of December
NH
and
NH
company posted an 8.2% increase in asset value over the quarter
NH
This has increased the Adjusted NAV to 438p
NH
looks as if the increase in asset values was driven by the retail portfolio (up 8.4%) and the office portfolio (up 8.2%).
NH
I think those are the highlights
NH
along with the divi
NH
any comments?
BE
Sure
BE
Here’s Hermanus “Harm” Meijer from JP Morgan.
BE
British Land: Strong 3Q2010 results – A very straightforward
story. We believe today’s results underpin our positive view on the
company and reiterate our view that its investment case is very
straightforward: 1. Stock trades at Dec-09 NAV of 438p, 2. 6%
dividend yield, 3. Today’s results make us very comfortable on our
forecasts (our year-end NAV forecast of 464p only requires 3% capital
growth), 4. 272,000 sq ft of new lettings and still 655,000 sq ft of
office available, 5. £3.2bn of cash and unused credit lines at 48bp: the
company sees further investment opportunities within 18 months (our
view: no need to rush), 6. Income growth of 1.4%, 13 years lease
length (only 7% to expire in three years), 11.2 years debt maturity and
94% occupancy, 7. Net portfolio yield of 5.8% and gross topped-up of
6.7%. Overall, we believe this is the type of company that should
appeal to investors: what you see is what you get with a potential
surprise to the upside. Please see our alert, sent out separately today,
for more details.
NH
(GKP up on the day now)
BE
And SocGen.
BE
Main surprises The underlying EPS is 20% above our expectation at 6.7p (SGe of 5.6p
and consensus of 6.1p) due to better rental income (9% ahead, mainly from 1.4%
organic rental growth over the quarter while we anticipated negative 0.3% growth) and
£10m lower financial costs. NAV is perfectly in line with estimates at 438p, up 18% qoq
compared to 435p expected by SG and consensus due to asset value growth of 8.2%
(SGe of 6.8%) on a net equivalent yield of 6.5% (down 60bp). About £10m p.a. of new
rents (or 1.9% of additional rental income) are to be generated from new lettings (retail
and City offices) and rent review in retail. Close to 25,000sqm are under offer in City
office buildings (Ropemaker and Broadgate Tower). BLND has about 65,000 sqm of
additional available office space or at least about £20m of additional rents (4% of total
income). £368m of new investments and developments have been spent thus far year to
date.
BE
Potential impact on forecasts We should only marginally revise our NAV figures. We
are already 6% ahead of the consensus for the full year NAV with an expected reported
NAV of 471p, anticipating an asset value growth of 4% in calendar Q1 2010. Our current
forecast for full year cash flow looks conservative for 2010e as does our forecast for
organic rental growth in 2010e. We are respectively 1% and 6% below the consensus
for 2009e and 2010e underlying EPS. We will also have to review our CAPEX and
investment figures for this year (£160m expected) and for the next two years (£370m
expected), as these also appear conservative.
Potential impact on share price/recommendation We believe better reported figures
and outlook for EPS should drive share price gains as we estimate BLND is undervalued
by c. 30% on our current forecast with a net initial yield on EV of 7.0%, dividend yield of
5.9%, and discount to triple NAV of 12% for 2009e.
NH
Manuel I can’t have that off.
NH
actually
NH
Taxloss
NH
is that you
NH
trying to stir things up as Manuel???
11:31AM
NH
OK
NH
where now?
NH
some of the ROTR asking about Inmarsat
NH
no news today
NH
and the shares down a bit
Inmarsat (ISAT:LSE): Last: 711.00, down 7.5 (-1.04%), High: 718.50, Low: 708.50, Volume: 348.91k
NH
but I wonder if the story here
NH
is that Harbinger could get the clearances they need to bid for the company
NH
and combine it with the hedge funds other satellite assets
BE
Hm.
BE
A long time coming if that is the story.
BE
Nearly two years since they said they were looking for clearance.
NH
OK
NH
so here’s the statement harbinger put out
NH
when it first bid for
NH
ISAT
NH
On 7 July 2008, Harbinger confirmed that it had entered into preliminary discussions with Inmarsat in relation to a possible offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Inmarsat. Discussions have taken place between Harbinger and Inmarsat and their respective advisers and these discussions have focused upon the lengthy regulatory and competition approval process required to effect an offer for Inmarsat. In light of this lengthy process, which could take up to 18 months, Harbinger does not consider it appropriate to make a firm offer for Inmarsat at this stage and therefore the parties have agreed to suspend these discussions.

However, Harbinger remains interested in acquiring control of Inmarsat and is therefore actively considering whether to pursue the relevant regulatory and competition approvals in order to be able to make an offer for Inmarsat in the future. Assuming there is an acceptable conclusion to the regulatory approval process Harbinger would intend to re-enter into discussions with the board of Inmarsat regarding the terms of an offer and endeavour to seek a recommendation from the Inmarsat board at that time.

NH
that was July 08
NH
Regulatory Process

A number of Regulatory Approvals will need to be obtained in respect of the Proposed Offer, including approval from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. The Potential Offeror expects that it will take approximately 12 to 18 months to obtain all of the Regulatory Approvals – a period which significantly exceeds a normal offer period. Therefore, prior to any offer being made by the Potential Offeror for Inmarsat, the Potential Offeror will seek to obtain the principal required consents, including those which are expected to take the longest to obtain. Further details of the Regulatory Approvals are set out in the section below entitled ‘Regulatory Approvals and Timetable’.

There is no certainty that the Regulatory Approvals will be obtained, or that they will be obtained on terms satisfactory to the Potential Offeror.

Terms of Proposed Offer

As a result of the uncertainty in relation to the Regulatory Approvals it is not the intention of the Potential Offeror to announce the formal terms or structure of any offer at this stage.

NH
12-18 months
NH
for approval
NH
of course, the key question is whether they bid
NH
if they do get the green light
NH
Manuel stop it. you are fired. Get back to Barc
BE
(…. and @Andrew, belatedly: BG’s production growth guided at ~2% this year. Big whoop.)
11:36AM
NH
Where now?
NH
Shall we have a look at ITV
NH
in the wake of the BSjyB placing
BE
Sure – holding up reasonably well, all things considered.
ITV (ITV:LSE): Last: 50.50, down 0.8 (-1.56%), High: 51.50, Low: 50.20, Volume: 35.66m
BE
Shares went out the door at 49.5p, wasn’t it?
NH
indeed
NH
but Morgan Stanley took them on at 48.5p
NH
so they took a penny out the middle
NH
on 404m shares
NH
which pays the bills for a day or two
BE
Indeed it does.
NH
now
NH
from what I have been hearing this morning
NH
most of the stock was taken by US value investors
NH
the UK long onlys
NH
had all gone home
NH
by the time the placing started
NH
as for some comment
NH
Citi
NH
are pushing BSkyB as a buy on the back of it
NH
apparently they have a lot of cash now
NH
or will have
NH
One the one hand, the market may have had hope that BSkyB’s placing would
flush out a trade buyer, and this has not happened.
On the other hand, part of the overhang has been cleared, and with ITV having
come back to c. 50p, it can probably progress from here in a pro-cyclical market
(perhaps it will return!).
NH
Questions remain: From a BSkyB perspective, the balance sheet (strong) question
comes back into focus. If our forecasts are correct, the group would have had
year-end net debt (fiscal 2010) of £1.5bn. With £200m from the ITV placing and
£200m to come from EDS (EDS stated last week that it will pay £200m to BSkyB in
respect of its recent law suit , which found in favour of BSKyB, and this £200m is
a minimum payment; however EDS is still appealing), this would fall to £1.1bn vs
forecast 2011E EBITDA of £1.4bn. BSkyB is likely to wish to retain its flexibility,
particularly until after the EDS appeal. However, BSkyB should generate around
£0.5bn of cash post dividend in 2011, so over time, the pressure will build. We
do not envisage an investment cycle above and beyond our model (scale of
broadband sub-base makes fibre build nonsensical) — perhaps HD volumes
could be 0.5m higher in 2011, and eat £100m post tax, but this does not change
the dynamic. We believe the balance sheet will start to look inefficient
NH
Bottom line on BSkyB: we continue to like BSkyB — perhaps we need to get past
the payTV review in March (probably) for the stock to perform. In the meantime,
downside feels limited and over time the upside feels significant.
NH
Bottom line on ITV: More of a volatile, cyclical play. We believe 6p of EPS is
achievable in 2012 on flat UK TV advertising 2010E and slight growth 2011E. At
the 50p level, we argue the stock can start to outperform again. Our concern is
near term on the cycle. Overtime we would expect ITV to enjoy market share
benefits as we think BBC will to some extent see its wings clipped, and Channel 4
and Five look likely to struggle against the back drop of secular and cyclical
challenges.
NH
and I do think
NH
that Archie Norman is a lucky general
NH
not long after he arrives
NH
the Sky stake goes
NH
he gets a new CEO
BE
But it is interesting to note that BSkyB couldn’t (or didn’t want to?) find a trade buyer.
BE
Here’s the bull and bear points from Credit Suisse.
BE
Positives:
**Overhang cleared. Sky will retain the remaining 7.5% stake for “medium term”.
**Demand for shares seemingly demonstrated last night, with £196m placing done in an
hour, 4% below the closing price.
**Archie Norman (Chairman), and Adam Crozier (New CEO) are said to have bought stock
in placing according to Daily Telegraph, showing confidence in the level.
Negatives:
**Bid for ITV less likely. Though no bid priced into shares, some may have considered this
stake sale an opportunity for a bid from foreign player as speculated in the press.
**Some may speculate that Sky, with a good window on the advertising market, chose to
sell ITV now rather than drag it out for the 6-12 months we thought they would be given to
sell.
In the medium term, over the last 13 years, 8 times out of 10 (please see our 23
September 2009 note “Reed Elsevier – Now that dust has settled” for more details) a new
Media Chief Executive, and his/her first strategic review is bad for share price performance.
We are concerned that ITV, with its structural issues, will be no exception. From the time
Adam Crozier joins in April/May, we believe the risk may be on downside.
In short term however, we are happy to retain Neutral rating TP 50p.
NH
thanks for that
BE
Oh – hang on, there’s also Merrill.
BE
For the sake of completeness.
BE
BSkyB sells down ITV stake
BSkyB decided yesterday not to make a further appeal against the Competition
Commission’s decision that it must sell down its stake in ITV from 17.9% to less
than 7.5%. Sky subsequently announced that it had placed a 10.4% stake in ITV
at 48.5p. It would appear that Sky, having reached the decision not to appeal, did
not want to be left as a forced seller which could have put downward pressure on
the value of its stake.
BE
Impact on ITV
Sky’s stake has, depending on market sentiment, been seen as both a potential
overhang and a strategic block. The sale of the stake removes an element of
uncertainty for ITV and the relatively small discount would suggest that there is
appetite amongst investors for ITV as a play on a cyclical recovery and
management change. In the event of an ongoing recovery we see upside to 64p
and see scope for a further 5-10% upside from residual regulatory change not
factored into our forecasts. We also see scope for management to create value
through the adoption of a subscription model, initially for its digital channels and
eventually for the whole ITV family. ITV could also consider spinning out its
production business and using it as a vehicle to create the UK’s leading
independent production house.
BE
Impact on Sky
The ITV stake only represents c3.8% of Sky’s valuation and selling down the
stake removes a distraction for both management and investors in our view.
Given our assumption that ITV does not pay a dividend in 2010 the sale should be
slightly (<0.5%) earnings enhancing and the value realised for its 10% stake is in
line with that factored into our valuation and PO of 790p.
NH
excellent
NH
plenty of stuff there
NH
yes
11:43AM
NH
Right
NH
some more on the diplomatic incident with Spain
NH
it would appear Izzy has some supporters
NH
Spanish Air Traffic controllers
NH
of all people
BE
?
NH
Izabella.

I enjoy reading your blog and would like to know if you are interested in covering the current conflict Air Traffic Controllers like myself are going through due to Minister José Blanco’s witch-hunt against us and privatizing the Spanish Air Traffic Control services.

NH
Please find attached two documents and should you be interested in hearing our opinion please let me know.

Thank you very much for your time and attention.

Kind regards.

BE
Well that’s nice.
NH
it is
BE
And to all Spanish Air Traffic controllers that might be tuned in: bienvenida a Mercado En Directo
BE
But please keep your eye on the screen with the planes on it.
NH
yes pls do
NH
not on Alpha
NH
we don’t want to blamed for anything else
NH
certainly not a near miss over Barca
11:45AM
NH
Moving on
NH
some news coming out of the Eurozone
NH
- Portugal FinMin: Not aware of any bail out discussion at EU summit
- Notes EU treaties allow for collective support trhough EU states need to face
issues
- (Referring to the earlier chatter surrounding Trichet’s early departure from
Oz)
- NB: Fitch are holding a teleconference on Euro area sovereign risks today at 1500pm (GMT) on prospects for Greece, Portugal & Spain.
NH
Now
NH
Trichet’s earlier departure from Oz
NH
did indeed
NH
help the euro rally
NH
and a little bit of Goldman bashing
NH
How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt
By Beat Balzli
NH
Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country’s already bloated deficit.
NH
might be worth looking at a little later
11:47AM
NH
So
NH
we haven’t mentioned the news from the FSA
NH
Hector Sants off
BE
Goodbye Sants.
BE
Official keeper of the Rally Monkey, if I remember right.
NH
indeed
NH
and presumably he is going
NH
because he won’t have a job when the Torries get in
BE
Jumping before being pushed? That’s one interpretation.
NH
although today’s opinion poll in the Times shows Labour support rising
NH
up 2 percentage points to 30%
NH
Torries on 40%
NH
not sure why the Labour support should be rising
NH
but it does increase the chance of a hung parliament
NH
which in turn increases the chance of a run on sterling
NH
and gilts
BE
Indeed. “Investors hate uncertainty,” said any random spreadbetting mouthpiece in the run-up to every election.
NH
true
NH
but there is a risk here
NH
actually that Times poll
NH
was really all about Broken Britain
BE
Oh yeah.
NH
Voters are deeply pessimistic about the state of Britain today, believing that society is broken and heading in the wrong direction, a Populus poll for The Times has found.

Nearly three fifths of voters say that they hardly recognise the country they are living in, while 42 per cent say they would emigrate if they could.

But worries over the pace of social change and dislocation are balanced by the belief that life will get better, according to the survey undertaken at the weekend.

BE
It was all better in the past.
BE
We could leave our doors unlocked.
NH
things can only gett better though
NH
remember that
BE
Of course. D*Ream’s biggest gig.
NH
anyway, who wants to hear what Sants had to say
NH
as he resigned
BE
Of course!
NH
“When I was appointed I told the board that I planned to serve as CEO for three years, and I intend to stick to that timetable. Of course, those three years have encompassed the most extraordinary circumstances for a financial regulator, and I am very proud of the manner in which the FSA rose to the challenge of dealing with such unprecedented turbulence across global financial markets. Moreover, I believe the FSA candidly examined the failings in financial regulation that contributed to the onset of the crisis, learned the lessons and has gone on to reform itself into a much stronger and better equipped organisation.
NH
“The success of any regulatory structure depends on ensuring supervision is carried out by high-quality supervisors with sufficient resources and specialist support.

“I believe the FSA has made great strides in ensuring that such individuals are in place in the UK and I am sure that after I leave they will continue to do invaluable work to ensure financial stability and protect the interests of consumers.”

11:53AM
NH
Back to the market
NH
what else is moving?
BE
Guess we should mention the miners.
NH
yes
BE
With Xstrata leading the blues.
Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,019, up 34.7 (+3.53%), High: 1,028, Low: 986.10, Volume: 10.73m
NH
yes
NH
Monday’s results
NH
went down very well
NH
and analysts are upgrading
NH
I think Morgan Stanley giving them a big shove today
NH
indeed they are
NH
100% upside in the stock, apparently
BE
Really?
NH
Risk-reward highly compelling – pull-back presents
a medium-term buying opportunity: The 105%
upside to our bull case of £19.44 looks too compelling to
ignore compared to the c.15% downside risk to our bear
case of £8.22. When Xstrata was at c.£13 just one
month ago the risk-reward was more even, but the
current sell-off (without any significant changes in
medium-term fundamentals) presents the first real
buying opportunity since Q3, in our view.
NH
Worst-case scenario £7.60/share? (£3.40 (previous
trough) + £2.20 cost savings + £2 of de-gearing):
Another way to gain comfort on the downside is to start
from the December 2008 trough of £3.4/share and work
back from there. Since then, XTA has instituted a
significant cost cutting programme in zinc and nickel
businesses worth £2.2 (Transformation Unraveled,
17/06/09), and de-gearing of c$9.5bn is worth another
£2, on our estimates.
NH
Debt level no longer a concern, making extreme
bear cases less likely: Back in January 2009, based
on the commodity prices at that time our estimates
suggested an EBITDA of $5.9bn and net debt of $16bn
by 2009e for XTA – bringing it very close to the 3x
debt/EBITDA covenant (with a possibility that it might
have to dispose of ‘crown jewels’ at distressed prices to
pay down the debt, which provided the bear case on the
stock even at low valuations). After the rights issue and
4 quarters of rising commodity prices (and consequent
de-gearing) net debt/EBITDA is low at 0.6x in 2010e.
NH
Earnings visibility underappreciated: Thermal coal
contracts settled at $85/t last month equate to c40% of
XTA’s EBITDA and provide much more visibility on
earnings than many of its peers, in spite of the market’s
perception that it is the more leveraged commodity play.
Cheap on P/E anyway you look at it – Buy: 7.1x
2010e; 7.3x mark-to-market commodity price; 10.4x
normalized earnings.
NH
there you have it
NH
cheap as chips play on emerging markets
NH
get it now, while stocks last
BE
Hm.
11:56AM
BE
Mention of Lloyds on the right
NH
yes
NH
heavy volume
NH
138m down already today
NH
and over 200m yesterday
NH
positioning ahead of the debt for equity swap?
BE
Precisely
BE
Pricing started on Friday
BE
And runs until Thursday I think
NH
indeed
BE
With about 3bn shares printed, most likely.
BE
At a vwap price
BE
Now, some people have been talking about this issue as if it’s a death spiral convertible
NH
really
BE
Yup – ever increasing dilution as the price is driven lower
BE
However, Joseph Dickerson at Execution points out today that it is backstopped
NH
(mervyn – MOST did the raid for BSKYB in ITV. and they took a penny out when they sold it last night, nice.)
BE
According to our
calculations, the issuance of shares is capped at 3.4bn and a price of 44p (the
current exchange price – VWAP since 5 Feb is 48.3p). Below 44p, the company
tops-up the difference between the equity issued (£1.5bn less 3.9bn
shares*exchange price) and the £1.5bn value of the debt with either cash or further
issuance of ECNs (contingent convertibles). Whilst there is a potential 14 days’
worth of trading volume which could flow back, we estimate actual flow-back of
about 3-4 days.
BE
He remains on a buy
NH
OK
NH
interesting
BE
We expect demand for bank credit to increase as investors
increasingly shun sovereign risk given the low visibility and
deteriorating fundamentals contrast with better visibility and
improving leverage profiles at banks. LLOY uniquely benefits given
its wholesale funding exposure. Granular margin analysis suggests
LLOY could make a profit in 2010
BE
Expect increased demand for bank credit
Given fundamental deterioration and low visibility in sovereign risk is contrasted
with improving fundamental improvement and increasing visibility around bank
risk – particularly where leverage is concerned, we are making the call that investor
appetite for bank credit will increase materially. We expect that the
implementation of Basel 3, which is incredibly bondholder friendly will amplify this
effect. An increase in demand for bank credit will benefit wholesale funded banks
and in the UK, LLOY is set to benefit the most. As a result, we continue – as we
have written since September 2009 – to expect wholesale funding cost
improvement to benefit LLOY’s net interest margin.
BE
And here’s an interesting forecast ….
BE
LLOY could turn a profit in 2010 (consensus = £1.2bn loss)
We have conducted a granular analysis across the primary components of LLOY’s
net interest margin and now expect 11bps of expansion in 2010. Combined with
flat retail impairments (at 1.25% of loans), we now expect that LLOY will earn
£529m of attributable profit in 2010. The consensus expectation is currently for a
loss of £1.2bn.
BE
And Lloyds has bounced a bit this morning, having dropped about 14 per cent in less than a week.
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 48.47, up 1.27 (+2.69%), High: 49.38, Low: 47.00, Volume: 135.13m
12:01PM
NH
Bored with Lloyds Voodoo – at the moment the project is on hold.
12:02PM
NH
Okay
NH
it is almost midday
NH
and we haven’t had a look at the small caps
NH
Wolfson moving higher I note
NH
they do the audio chips for the iPod
BE
Aha – indeed they do. Or did.
NH
(Bored with Lloyds Voodoo – something else has come up that’s more pressing)
BE
Quite high-end stuff, so they’ve been cut from most of the cheaper models.
NH
right
NH
and the shares up today
NH
post results
Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF:LSE): Last: 130.00, up 10.5 (+8.79%), High: 130.25, Low: 124.75, Volume: 432.66k
BE
Got Caz on the numbers if you’re interested.
NH
yes pls
BE
Guidance for Q1 revenues – Still no formal guidance for the current quarter, but management indicates that backlog is
$23.0m vs $24.1m last year. Hence this implies in our view, assuming some turns business in the remaining weeks of
the quarter, sales of $26m vs Cazenove $23.8m and consensus $25.6m.
Guidance for Q1 revenues is reassuring in our view. According to our estimates, revenues in Q1 last year excluding the
iPhone 3G reached $21m, which implies underlying yoy revenue growth of 24% in Q1 2010. Assuming a pick up in
demand for audio hubs and audio amplifiers in H2, this is consistent with our $150m revenue forecast for 2010
(revenues up 24%).
Management guidance for 2010 – “encouraging designin traction with new customer product releases improves
confidence of significant revenue growth as Wolfson progresses through in 2010”. Hence, management guides for an
acceleration of revenues in H2 consistent with our 2010 forecast.
BE
An increase in design activity (250 designins in 2009 vs a 150 runrate in 20072008) is supportive of our revenue
growth forecast for 2010. Most of this will derive in our view from the revamped “audio product” portfolio. Wolfson is
benefitting from the smartphone upgrade cycle, whereby smartphones are including more audio features and as such
more “routing” and “amplification” functions. Hence, Wolfson has developed “audio hubs” for this market, securing so far
50 design wins, “many with tier one customers”. We believe that “audio hubs” sell at a 4080% premium to simple audio
chips (codecs). An increase in units and ASPs is supportive of revenue growth in our view.
Wolfson is also benefitting from the launch of smartphones lookalikes which require “audio amplification” products.
Management expects power management revenues to increase but to remain a small share of total sales (incremental
design win with Samsung). Wolfson remains dependent on the success of the Marvell, Freescale and nVidia application
processors in the market.
2011 revenues are more dependent on the continuation of the trend in audio products as well as the pick of sales in
noise cancellation, power management and digital mics. Wolfson is still “engaged with most tier one and tier two”
regarding noisecancellation, no designwin at this stage.
BE
We expect to see significant improvement in the next few quarters in terms of revenue growth (+3% in Q1 2010, +5% in
Q2, +27% in Q3 and +60% in Q4) driven by a recovery in endmarkets (handsets units +10% and smartphones +25
35%) as well as a rampup of new audio products introduced last year. A recovery in YoY revenue growth is usually
positive for Wolfson’s share price development (if the EV/sales valuation is not too demanding, as it is today on 0.8x
2010E). Investors in CSR have seen a strong recovery in the share price in 2009 on the back of a recovery in CSR’s YoY
revenue growth (CSR’s new CEO started one year before Wolfson’s CEO Mike Hickey to revamp the product portfolio,
hence we believe that Wolfson is c. 12 months behind CSR in terms of revenue recovery).
Management has improved the product lineup in accordance with customers’ needs. Wolfson has lost market share to
Cirrus Logic which is now shipping in most Apple iPod/iPhone products and management is still working hard to win back
a socket with Apple even if it might take a while. Dialog is now the main supplier of power management chips for Apple
iPod/iPhone products, and we feel Wolfson is still struggling to offer an attractive power management offering. We
expect the good news in 2010 to come from complex audio converters, noisecancellation chips as well as digital
microphones.
Management expects to see an improvement in design wins and order intake trends in 2010. Management is confident
about the new products lineup at this stage, but, in our view, some investors anticipate delays, as it is often the case in
this industry. However, we believe that if demand for new products has not improved by the end of 2010, it may prompt
the company to review its current strategy and cost structure.
Based on our new forecasts, Wolfson trades on 0.7x 2011E EV/Sales and 19x 2011E PER, declining to 0.6x EV/Sales
and 11x PER respectively assuming $200m revenues in 2011E.OUTPERFORM
BE
Huge note. That’s just edited highlights.
NH
thanks for that
NH
(Bored with Lloyds Voodo – it is classified. special ops. no ML US)
12:06PM
NH
Okay
NH
I think we are done for today
BE
Sure
BE
And we haven’t even had time to visit Varley at the House
BE
“The meteorite passed without striking, thank goodness,
and I think that the system today, although it’s not in rude
good health, as a result of intervention by government and
central banks, the system survived. There are
signs of normalization.”
NH
oh yes
NH
doesn’t add a great deal to the sum of human knowledge
BE
Here are all the flashes, if anyone’s really interested.
BE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS `WE ARE SENSITIVE’ TO BONUS ISSUE :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS 2008 BONUSES WERE DOWN BY 50 PERCENT :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS CORE TIER 1 HAS DOUBLED, LIQUIDITY QUADRUPLED
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS KEY ISSUES ARE BANKS’ LENDING AND PAY
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS TRUST HAS BROKEN BETWEEN BANKS AND PUBLIC
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS `WE ARE SENSITIVE’ TO BONUS ISSUE :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS 2008 BONUSES WERE DOWN BY 50 PERCENT :BARC LN
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS CORE TIER 1 HAS DOUBLED, LIQUIDITY QUADRUPLED
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS KEY ISSUES ARE BANKS’ LENDING AND PAY
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS TRUST HAS BROKEN BETWEEN BANKS AND PUBLIC
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS SYSTEM SERVED BY MAKING BIG BANKS SAFER
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS NO LINK BETWEEN BANK SIZE AND FAILURE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS BANKS ARE MUCH SAFER TODAY THAN 3 THREE AGO
BE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS SOME INSTITUTIONS ARE TOO IMPORTANT TO FAIL
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS RISKS IN COMPLEX BANKS ARE MANAGEABLE
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS BANK HAS 30 BILLION POUND LOSS BUFFER
BARCLAYS SAYS FIREWALL NEEDED FOR INVESTMENT AND DEPOSIT BANK
BARCLAYS CEO SAYS HARD FOR BANK TO `WALK AWAY’ FROM SUBSIDIARY
BARCLAYS CEO CONFIDENT THAT BANKS WILL BECOME `MORE RESILIENT’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS FEELS `GRATITUDE TO GOVERNMENT’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS BANK `STRESS-TESTED IN BRUTAL WAY’
BARCLAYS CEO VARLEY SAYS BANKING SYSTEM IN BETTER HEALTH
NH
thanks for that
12:08PM
NH
Okay
NH
just remembered something on Vodafone
Vodafone Group (VOD:LSE): Last: 136.87, down 2.38 (-1.71%), High: 139.30, Low: 136.75, Volume: 55.66m
BE
What’s that?
NH
Vodafone India
NH
apparently Essar might excercise its put option
NH
and this could hurt Voda
NH
this is from Icap
NH
In the attached report we focus on the almost inevitable £1.4bn of value destruction that would result from Essar exercising its PUT Option on Vodafone India – Essar’s recent bond issue and relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions suggest this to be increasingly likely post 8th May.
NH

Other challenges include:

1. Deteriorating fundamentals in India as intense competition bites (underlying mobile growth was 7% in Q3 but could go ex-growth in Q4).

2. The rapidly maturing US market which impacts the fundamental value of VZW and reinforces our belief that any early reinstatement of the VZW dividend is unlikely.

3. Intangible capex – spectrum is a strategic resource and despite claims of ‘not being desperate for spectrum’ a mobile company can never have enough!

4. New spectrum could trigger data-centric new entrants.

NH
here’s a bit more on Essar
NH
In the middle of January ETHL (an Essar group subsidiary) monetised the Novated Onshore Underwritten (NOU) Put Option (10.97% of Vodafone Essar for $1.2bn) with a zero coupon bond. This makes certain the exercise of $1.2bn out of the likely $5bn of Put options to be exercised.
NH
Foreign ownership rules ease – India’s 74% foreign ownership limits have added an extra dimension of ‘divestment risk’ to the issue of the Essar Puts. This risk has been mitigated by a recent change in the ownership rules. This implies that in the event that the Essar Puts are exercised, Vodafone would only be obliged to divest of 1.4% of the company.
NH
Destroying a further £1.4bn of value – On our calculations the Puts will destroy £1.4bn of value. We value Vodafone’s 67% stake in Vodafone Essar at £3.7bn, 8x EV / EBITDA (DCF 11.8% WACC; 6% terminal growth). A multiple of c.8x looks ambitious in our opinion given the deteriorating growth outlook. We remain negative on the fundamentals of Vodafone India – as the benefit of Indus towers falls away, the business will struggle to grow in Q4
NH
Sell into strength – The changing risk profile, the crystallisation of Indian value destruction, the drag of spectrum costs and further delays on the VZW dividend represent headwinds against which the shares will struggle to make sustained progress. We view the investment as dead money in the medium term, and believe there will be better entry points into the name once these upcoming issues have played out.
BE
Ok – cheers.
BE
(Silverfox: if there’s interest in WLF, then certainly.)
BE
Right – I have a lunch so we should probably wrap it up soon.
NH
me too
NH
nothing flash though
NH
and you?
BE
Off to Lutyens
NH
where’s that?
BE
French place, Conranized.
BE
In the old Reuters building on Fleet St.
NH
oh right
NH
is that close to the new club that’s opened
NH
by the Mahki mob?
BE
Dunno.
BE
It’s close to a million sandwich shops and some backpackers looking for St Pauls. That’s all I know.
NH
OKay
NH
thanks for logging on today
NH
expecially our new readers from Spain
NH
and Portugal
NH
as you can see
NH
we stick the boot in to everyone
NH
no one is exempt
NH
especially the UK
NH
anyway
NH
that’s it
NH
see you all tomorrow
BE
Despedida.
NH
aidos
NH
oh
NH
and one last thing
NH
for Goldman fans
NH
read this
NH
cya
Print