Print

Markets Live transcript 8 Feb 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:24 on 8 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Bryce Elder Neil Hume, FT

BE
Good morning.
BE
It’s 11.04am
BE
and time, approximately, for Markets Live
BE
FT Alphaville’s daily markets chat
BE
We’re having a few rather catastrophic IT problems today
BE
Neil particularly, whose FT.com account seems to have become borked over the weekend
BE
So he’s spent the past three hours on the phone to IT
BE
And is still on the phone as I type.
BE
So if you can talk amongst yourselves for a moment or two, hopefully we can begin shortly
BE
Still on the phone to IT …………
NH
I am in
NH
finally
NH
but to be honest
NH
I might just give up and go home
NH
I have been in since 7.00am
NH
and it has been one thing after another
NH
could get on to the site for 2.5hrs
NH
assanka fixed that
Cracking little software shop who built FT Alphaville
NH
then notes below up
NH
and then I couldn’t log on to Alpha
NH
nightmare
NH
I have no idea what’s going on
BE
And, Andrew – much as I’d like to hold court and pontificate on this monday morning, it gets tricky to do an hour of monologue.
NH
all I know is that we are down
NH
that rally didn’t last long
NH
did it?
11:11AM
BE
Well, we were up 50 points early on
BE
And now we’re down 7
BE
At 5054
NH
hmmm
NH
I don’t tink anyone
NH
really trusted the rally on Wall Street late Friday
NH
looks like there was just a scramble to cover shorts
BE
And, as VP notes, the Plunge Protection Team have been mentioned
NH
indeed
NH
the volume Friday on Wall Street
NH
was very big
NH
$37bn traded in New York
NH
he highest day of volume that we’ve seen come through the floor this year as well
NH
here’s a bit more commen ton that
NH
this is from Olivetree
NH
Friday saw exceptionally high volume in index futures moved aggressively to hedge delta risk. Hedge Funds net delta has been declining over the course of 2010(from 45-50% in q409) to c20-25% by Friday. Mixed signals for equities at this point with technicals globally turning negative but fundamentals positive. Equity investors have so far redeemed $19.5 bln from US equity funds and now we have seen two consecutive weeks of outflows from EMEA funds. The interest rate hike concerns for BRICS, particularly China, we think are over done particularly when such a relatively small proportion of investment in China is financed through banking system. Last week the bears were also fuelled by the declining probability of fed rate hikes (implied probability of rate hike in June fell from 40% to 11%) as belief now is that interest rates will be kept too low for too long fuelling a commodity bubble. We do not see this as likely whilst there remains so much slack in present system and no immediate inflationary pressures. Equity issuance is running at historic high and this to some extent is keeping investors on sidelines. We do not expect to see pressure decline for European equities over the short term, despite good performance in US. China continues to trade below its 200 day mva and Bovespa remains in negative pattern. S&P cash support is at the 1037/40 region and more significantly 1018-22. With market risk now much reduced by investors we beleive medium term outlook increasingly positive for stocks but pressures will remain in short term.
BE
You’re right – that does seem curious.
NH
all very odd
NH
and no one this side of the pond is buying it
NH
down we go
NH
with insurers taking the brunt of it
Legal and General Group (LGEN:LSE): Last: 71.00, down 2.65 (-3.60%), High: 73.85, Low: 71.00, Volume: 11.39m
Aviva (AV:LSE): Last: 352.90, down 12.2 (-3.34%), High: 366.90, Low: 352.20, Volume: 6.14m
Resolution Ld (WI (RSL:LSE): Last: 77.45, down 1.1 (-1.40%), High: 78.85, Low: 77.35, Volume: 1.35m
NH
any idea why?
RSA Insurance Group (RSA:LSE): Last: 124.60, down 1.1 (-0.88%), High: 127.40, Low: 124.60, Volume: 2.41m
BE
Don’t see anything specific out there this morning.
NH
weird
NH
the Pru off too
NH
PRU
NH
very much the insurers being targeted
NH
Lloyds
NH
which owns an insurer
NH
also under a bit of pressure
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 47.58, down 0.7349 (-1.52%), High: 48.68, Low: 47.31, Volume: 138.84m
11:16AM
NH
Right
NH
one thing I do know something about
NH
is International Power
BE
Aha
BE
They’re up, of course
International Power (IPR:LSE): Last: 320.30, up 6.4 (+2.04%), High: 332.10, Low: 318.00, Volume: 5.01m
NH
yes, on the back of a story in the Telegraph
BE
Which followed a story in the Independent on Sunday, of all places.
BE
Here’s the Reuters sum
BE
Feb 7 (Reuters) – French utility GDF Suez is mulling a revised offer for Britain’s International Power Plc , including a cash element, according to the Independent on Sunday, citing an unnamed source close to GDF.
The companies confirmed last month talks had collapsed on a possible asset tie-up.
BE
GDF’s offer to transfer assets into International Power in return for a majority stake was believed to have been rejected by the UK company’s CEO Philip Cox on the grounds that the offer undervalued the power generator, which has a stock market value of some 5 billion pounds.
However the future for GDF could be more uncertain without a tie-up with International Power, some analysts say.
BE
Both International Power and GDF declined to comment on the Independent on Sunday report and said they had nothing to add to statements issued last month.
NH
OK, I have been talking to a few people this morning
NH
and they say no cash element
NH
in fact they regard that as bizzare
NH
because the talks were only ever about an asset swap
NH
as such they were classified as a reverse takeover
NH
GDF would have injected assets in return for a big stake
NH
no the Takeover Panel never got involved with this
NH
it was all with the UL Listing Authority
NH
and I haven’t checked this
NH
but I am told
NH
when the talks ended the UKLA
NH
told both sides that they had to “put pens down”
NH
for six weeks
NH
so they won’t be any resumption of talks till then
NH
and because momentum has gone from talks
NH
I reckon the chances of GDF coming back are slim
NH
but look
NH
there are loads of bankers trying to talk this deal up
NH
it was nearly there
NH
and they could smell the fees
NH
but I think the French have cooled
BE
Hm.
BE
That sounds a pragmatic assessment.
NH
why they keep rising I don’t know
NH
dollar earner
NH
defensive
NH
I guess that all helps
BE
True.
NH
oh and one other thing
NH
this convertible rumour
NH
GDF doing one so they could up their stake in Suez Environment
NH
doesn’t appear to be happening
NH
they and their partners already control it
NH
and don’t feel the need for an increasing holding
BE
Ok – that’s all very useful.
BE
A good bit of Sunday deramping.
BE
Should we move on?
NH
yes
11:24AM
BE
Mention to the right of the asbestos-related damges bill in the House of Lords
BE
Can’t see any news on that, although DeHavilland did put out minutes earlier this morning.
BE
And, if that was the driver, I’d expect RSA to be the biggest faller, which it isn’t
BE
Anyway, let’s push on.
NH
ok
11:26AM
NH
Small dead cat bounce in Icap then
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
BE
Yeah
ICAP (IAP:LSE): Last: 304.40, up 10.4 (+3.54%), High: 312.60, Low: 295.80, Volume: 4.67m
BE
After losing 20% on Friday
NH
yes
NH
Spencer came out to defend his share sales
NH
in the weekend papers
NH
he went through the proper procedures
NH
and he is happy for the FSA to look into it
NH
but the shares
NH
have dead catted
NH
because a couple of brokers are saying buy on the dips
NH
Upgrade to Outperform: ICAP reported a weak trading update on 5th
February guiding to PBT for the y/e March 2010E between £295m and
£315m with the middle of this range around 6% below our expectations. We
are leaving our revenue forecast for H2 unchanged but reducing future years
by 4%. We are reducing our PBT forecasts for the y/e March 2010E and
March 2011E by 6% and 15%. We are raising the stock to Outperform given
the attractive valuation. In our view the 30% decline in the share price ytd
offers an attractive entry point for investors. We have reduced our target
price to £4.1 (from £4.95) to reflect our new lower EPS forecasts.
NH
that’s Credit Suisse
BE
Merrill’s also giving them a shove
BE
Gross over reaction to disappointing IMS
ICAP’s Q3 10 IMS contained disappointing earnings guidance, but nothing, in our
view, of anything like the magnitude to justify the 20% price fall the company
suffered. ICAP now strikes us as extremely undervalued.
Soft end to January
Part of the reason for the company’s revised guidance is that it saw a softish
second half of January in volumes. This is, in our view, one of the risks you bear
with any of the market structure stocks.
New voice businesses problematic
In addition, the company’s new voice businesses, which ICAP hoped would
become profitable in H2, now look set to remain in the red.
BE
Estimates – 7%, 13%, 12% cuts
We have reflected this new information in our estimates, reducing eps by low
double digit amounts in FY 11,12.
Buy, 515p price objective
On under 9x forward earnings, with a 10% free cash flow yield, ICAP is simply too
cheap for a world leading business, in our view. In fact, we think the company’s
electronic and post trade businesses suggest it should trade above its historical
valuation range, rather than below. We therefore reiterate our Buy on what has
now become a compelling medium term opportunity.
NH
Hmmm
NH
on Friday no one was blaming the Volcker rule
NH
it was about the slow take up of new products
NH
but that’s all changed now
NH
how odd
NH
what’s going on here?
BE
Hm. Volcker uncertainty I guess.
BE
Even if it has no impact, the growing idea that it might means that it might.
BE
You enter a feedback loop of uncertainty.
NH
clearly
BE
Anyway, here’s Cazenove, which I think is shop to Icap
BE
And they’re rather less bullish
BE
The combination of ICAP’s profit warning and ongoing regulatory uncertainty undermines our
confidence in future earnings from the core broking business, which augurs a lower P/E rating
than enjoyed historically. The TriOptima acquisition offsets some of the reduction in core earnings
estimates, but the price paid (8x historic earnings) reflects either a good price for ICAP
shareholders or, more likely we believe, a more circumspect view of growth prospects. In our
view, a sustained rally in the share price is difficult to envisage without improving capital markets
conditions. The dividend is well covered and so we believe the 6% yield should act as a prop,
though not a reason per se to buy the shares.
NH
(Foxcubb – interesting idea. Not sure what exposure the insurers have).
BE
As it happens, I had some data on the insurers and their exposure to govvies. Think it was only for the central European ones though.
NH
(will look into it)
NH
go on
BE
Will dig it out, if Lotus Notes plays ball.
NH
while you do
NH
I have a note
NH
on the impact of widening CDS spreads for individual banks
NH
from Matrix Capital
NH
will put that up
NH
while you look
NH
In this note we intend to put the sovereign debt crisis into context for the banking sector. The countries at risk are obviously the PIIGS. We examine more closely the worrying development that widening sovereign CDS spreads are now leading to widening CDS spreads for individual banks, which has very negative implications for the funding costs of those banks. Additionally, the economic prospects of the countries in which those banks are domiciled should be viewed negatively if one views the widening CDS spreads as an indicator that measures need to be undertaken to reign in indebtedness: for banks, this means lower loan growth and higher loan loss charges. On an individual stock basis, our conclusion is that the Iberian banks BCP, BBVA and Santander, as well as Allied Irish Bank, have the greatest risk of incurring much higher refinancing risks in the near-term. Other banks at risk are the Italian banks Intesa and Unicredit, Bank of Ireland, and potentially also the UK banks Barclays and RBS.
NH
here’s a summary
NH
We further take into account the movement in bank CDS spreads versus the
proportion of debt outstanding that needs to be refinanced in 2010, as shown in the
next chart. This gives us an idea of which banks have a risk of having much higher
near-term refinancing costs. BCP is at significant risk. We should also be very
concerned about Santander, BBVA and Allied Irish Bank, as well as (albeit to a
lesser extent), Intesa, Unicredit, Barclays, RBS and Bank of Ireland.
NH
right, Bryce
NH
have you found that?
BE
I have, yes.
BE
This is from JPMorgan
BE
1Q 10e mtm on Greek bonds as a % of s/h equity
BE
Fortis (2.0%)
Allianz (0.3%)
Munich (0.2%)
Zurich (0.1%)
Generali (0.0%)
Swiss Re (0.1%)
BE
We believe the govvies exposures in themselves are not a risk to the
insurers we follow. This is our conclusion from the sensitivities we
calculated in terms of 1Q10 mark to market, on the assumption that the
rise in spreads in Greek bonds reflects the potential impairment should
there be a debt rescheduling.
BE
For Fortis we estimate €153m till 3rd Feb, for Allianz €105m till 3rd
Feb. Clearly the potential mark downs could become much more
significant if, as an extreme scenario, Greece were to leave the Euro
and devalue. In this scenario the absolute numbers may be a better
guide and Figure 1 shows the net exposures (net of tax and life
policyholders share) as pct of shareholders’ equity.
BE
In any case the fact that Fortis, Allianz, and to a lesser extent Munich
Re, have sought what is effectively yield pick up by investing in
Greece, and also we estimate in other higher yield Euro countries such
as Ireland, Portugal and Spain, is we believe reflective of the
underlying issue facing European insurers, and in particular life
insurers with high contractual guarantees to policyholders.
BE
The issue in the current low interest environment is most challenging in
Germany, where the average guarantee on the back book is 3.4% and
where on average insurers pay out 4.19% for 2010 to life policyholders
(79bps more than the guarantee).
BE
Allianz itself is most protected by the German buffer system, where it
has €10.4bn in RfB, of which €5bn is free RfB. This means on its
€120bn German life portfolio that it can continue to offer its current
4.3% bonus rate and earn 50bps less than the risk free for at 4-8 years
without having to turn to shareholders to offset the potential negative
spread margin.
NH
Thanks for that. a topic worth exploring further
BE
Actually, there are quite a few useful charts and graphs in there. Will stick it in the Usual Place if anyone’s interested.
11:36AM
NH
OK
NH
some breaking news
NH
more accelerator problems
NH
this time at…
NH
GM
NH
GENERAL MOTORS IS RECALLING CERTAIN MODEL YEAR 2009-2010 PONTIAC VIBE PASSENGER VEHICLES. THE ACCELERATOR PEDAL CAN GET STUCK IN THE WIDE OPEN POSITION DUE TO ITS BEING TRAPPED BY AN UNSECURED OR INCOMPATIBLE DRIVER’S FLOOR MAT.
NH
A STUCK OPEN ACCELERATOR PEDAL MAY RESULT IN VERY HIGH VEHICLE SPEEDS AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO STOP THE VEHICLE, WHICH COULD CAUSE A CRASH, SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.
NH
GENERAL MOTORS WILL MODIFY OR REPLACE THE ACCELERATOR PEDAL AND THE FLOOR MAT WITH A NEWLY DESIGNED MAT FREE OF CHARGE. GENERAL MOTORS HAS NOT YET PROVIDED AN OWNER NOTIFICATION SCHEDULE. OWNERS MAY CONTACT PONTIAC AT 1-800-620-7668 OR AT THE OWNER CENTER AT WWW.GMOWNERCENTER.COM.
BE
“Pontiac Vibe”?
BE
Who buys a car called a Vibe?
NH
pass
NH
meh
NH
a horrible wagon type thing
NH
anyway
11:38AM
NH
Competition time
NH
so, reports over the weekend about Santander
NH
floating its UK businesses
NH
and they are
NH
Abbey
NH
Bungle Bank
NH
and Alliance & Leicester
NH
now
NH
that needs a name
NH
I couldn’t think of a good one
NH
any ideas
NH
welcomed
BE
You’re a tad sceptical about this IPO idea, I assume.
NH
yes
NH
I think they have looked at it
NH
because
NH
they know
NH
they will need more cash
NH
for further spanish problem loans
NH
so they IPO this
NH
in fact
NH
that’s what they did in Brazil last year
NH
floated a fast growing business
NH
diluting themselves
NH
to get hold of EUR2.5bn of cash
NH
which they used last week for provisions
BE
That’s rather cynical.
NH
it is
NH
but this is Santander we are talking about
NH
always doing a deal
NH
Brazil
NH
selling the best bits of ABN
NH
anyway
NH
here’s a bit of comment
NH
from Matrix
NH
To the above story, we now have the new development that Santander are considering IPOs for their UK and US subsidiaries. This brings us back to our thoughts on the IPO of Santander’s Brazilian subsidiary – we wondered why on earth would the bank want to dilute the main growth story of the group? Role forward a few months, and with our cynical hat on, we can say that “Well, obviously so that they could book €2.5bn in capital gains to provisions for deteriorating Spanish loans and real estate!”
NH
We see a similar story here. The premise for floating the UK business is ostensibly to raise funds to purchase the 318-strong branch network of RBS that has to be sold as a condition of it receiving state aid. Again, we wonder if this is Santander’s true intention, and that the real reason is to book capital gains as quickly as possible to offset the large Spanish loan losses due in forthcoming quarters and, now added to that, to try and alleviate higher funding costs as Santander management watch the bank’s CDS spreads rise in tandem with the rise in Spanish CDS spreads (see below). This a particular concern as Santander actually has 17% of its debt outstanding coming up for refinancing in 2010 (again, see below).
NH
Now
NH
not everyone is that cynical
NH
Merrill Lynch reckon it is in line with corporate strategy
NH
The £15bn total valuation for Abbey is what we do have in our SOTP for Santander. Such valuation implies 9x 2010E earnings and 8x 2011 earnings, and would imply that Santander ex-Abbey would be trading at 6.5x 2010E earnings. The negative impact for the minorities at a Group level net of the reinvestments proceeds would be an estimated 3% but Santander would benefit its core Tier I by c.50bp (currently 8.6%).
NH
In our opinion the eventual listing fits perfectly well in Santander’ group strategy that every operating unit must be autonomous and has to be perceived by each market as a pure local player (see Chile, Brazil, Banesto). We do think this is the rationale behind and not capital needs as Santander closed 2009 with a core Tier I of 8.6% after a 55% payout and higher generic provisions than in the prior-year period.
NH
Got that
NH
every operating unit must be autonomous and has to be perceived by each market as a pure local player
BE
Hm.
NH
anyway
NH
I think lemmy gets the prize
NH
ABBA
NH
is very good
NH
and take a chance of me
NH
the perfect avertising strap line
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
I was thinking BANAL Bank (Bradford/Abbey National/A&L) but ABBA’s better..
NH
no, no
NH
that’s good too
NH
and some excellent Abba gags coming out
NH
Waterloo
NH
very good
11:46AM
NH
Back to the insurers for a moment
NH
Now
NH
Pimco are doing some more Brit bashing this morning
NH
El-Erian raised fresh concerns over the U.K.’s AAA status
NH
now, they do seem to do this once a week
NH
but there we go
NH
Mr. El-Erian said Pimco has identified sovereign risk as a key theme for Pimco in 2010, but said although the Greek government is in need of external financial aid, it likely will not default.

“The risk of Greece defaulting is low,” he said.

On AAA-rated sovereigns, he said the U.K.’s growing debt is continuing to pressure that country’s credit profile.

“The sovereign most at risk right now is the U.K., in terms of its AAA rating.”

NH
that’s from the WSJ
NH
SYDNEY — Bonds from emerging economies and the German government are the most attractive sovereign debt securities in the world, Mohamed El-Erian, global chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said Monday.
BE
Ok – what’s the reaction?
NH
10-year gilt is weak
NH
this morning
NH
yield pushing up to 3.932%
NH
sterling also weak against the dollar
NH
cable is $1.556
NH
and a euro buys 0.876
BE
Cheers.
BE
Value- I’m afraid we don’t have any work on UK exposures.
BE
But as soon as we do we’ll share.
11:50AM
NH
OK
NH
shall we have a look at the miners
NH
some results out today
NH
Xstrata
NH
and Randgold
NH
which are going very well
BE
Yup – both delivered pretty strong numbers.
NH
(Bohemia – I haven’t zapped you. Could u send a screen shot, or explain the problem).
Randgold Resources (RRS:LSE): Last: 4,437, up 228 (+5.42%), High: 4,544, Low: 4,400, Volume: 317.01k
Xstrata Plc (XTA:LSE): Last: 951.80, up 1.8 (+0.19%), High: 1,005, Low: 951.00, Volume: 12.05m
BE
Starting with Xstrata
NH
before you do
NH
did they say anything about that coal asset
NH
they acquired from Glencore
NH
the option on that must expire soon
BE
March 4
NH
that is close
NH
any comment on that?
BE
No – not in the statement anyway.
BE
But there’s been some in the post-results calls
NH
go on
BE
LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Mining group Xstrata was holding no talks with its biggest shareholder — trading house Glencore [GLEN.UL] — about a possible merger, but said such a combination had potential to create value.
Glencore said in December when it raised $2.2 billion that there was potential for a listing and possible combination with another group.
Chief Executive Mick Davis told Reuters on Monday he did not know what group Glencore was referring to since there has been no discussions about a possible merger.
BE
“Clearly, when one puts together a great trading house and a great mining house, you have the potential for value creation,” he said in an interview.
“But there is a wealth of other issues that one would have to think about in looking at that sort of combination. But to start speculating about these type of things when there is nothing on the table doesn’t make much sense.”
NH
did they ask about Prodeco though?
NH
that’s the Colombian coal business
BE
Hang on – I’m just getting to that.
NH
OK
BE
Actually, no, it seems Reuters didn’t ask about it.
NH
right
NH
and the results
NH
dividend reinstated
BE
Yup – and earnings a tad better than forecast
BE
Here’s Citigroup
BE
Results Review — Prodeco results are included (probably for the last time) in the
pro-forma published numbers. Results (pre-exceptionals) were solid across the
board, and ahead of consensus by ~3% at EPS level.
 Divisional Performance — Only the coal business experienced declining HoH
momentum, as high contract prices worked through the system. Margins
recovered ahead of 2008 levels in Copper, Nickel and Zinc, with the largest profit
contributions from Coal ($1bn) and Copper ($1.5bn), or ~87% of total.
 Prodeco Impact — The Prodeco option expiry is 4 March 2010. Glencore has the
right to buy the Columbian coal asset for $2.25bn (sold for a net $2bn), ex the
earnings from 1 Jan 2009 ($107m operating profit in FY 2009, already included in
business combinations) and will have to pay XTA for any capex spent ($203m in
FY2009). Prodeco is a high-quality asset and we believe Glencore is likely to
exercise the option, reducing earnings contributions and net debt (~$2.45bn).
BE
What’s New — Currency hedging gains ($362m) and disposal gains on El Morro
($194m) improved the earnings picture in comparison to our numbers, and was
an important cause of the EPS beat. The renewed final dividend payment of
8USc/sh (<1% div yield) is positive, and reflects improved optimism on the
outlook and the financial structure of the group.
 Recommendation — Delivery on the organic growth projects has become the key
driver of XTA’s performance in the medium term. The share price continues to
have high exposure to the commodity price cycle, and we believe we remain in the
early stages of the recovery. We retain our Buy (Medium Risk) recommendation
and £14.50 target price.
NH
Thanks for that
NH
let’s assume Glencore do excercise
NH
what will Xstrata do with the cash?
NH
special divi?
NH
buyback
NH
or perhaps
NH
Lonmin?
BE
Hm. Management has been very keen to emphasise the huge development pipeline
NH
that’s true
NH
no deals this year
BE
And I think they were talking about capex at about twice previous forecasts
NH
( I bet Glencore finds the money)
NH
actually
NH
Glencore raised some cash before Xmas
BE
Yup – $2.2bn
NH
Glencore, the private commodities trader that is gradually shedding its “secretive” reputation, has invited some of the savviest participants in resource investment to anchor the company ahead of its probable flotation.

The key to the $2.2bn bond Glencore sold on Wednesday was its convertible structure. Glencore routinely taps the bond markets to finance its capital-intensive and inventory-heavy business. But, until this year, such fundraisings were for straightforward corporate finance purposes.

11:58AM
NH
Ok
NH
shall we have a look at Randgold
NH
figs beat forecasts
NH
35c vs 23c
NH
and some more detail
NH
on the developments of their projects
NH
Most notably Kibali, which is anticipated to start production in January 2014 a year earlier than originally estimated
NH
so that’s all positive
NH
I have some good comment on this
NH
from Arbuthnot
NH
which I believe are house broker
BE
Go on
NH
The company saw a 79% jump in profits Y-o-Y and 185% Q-o-Q. The company posted profits of $84.3m for the 12 months to December on the back of a 14% increase in gold production (488,255 ounces). Gold production rose at the flagship Loulo operation in Mali in the fourth quarter following a plant expansion and the Morila mine had higher than anticipated production from higher grades and improved recovery. Total cash costs were $510 per ounce. The company has announced it is increasing dividends by 30% to 17 cents per share. Randgold has no debt and cash reserves of $590m, which along with its operations is more than adequate to fund its expansion.
NH
Loulo: Produced 351.6 Koz of gold last year at a total cash cost of $522/oz. The build up from Yalea underground was slower than anticipated this was offset by discovery and expansion of the Loulo 3 open pit. The flexibility of new near surface deposits in the region remains a strength as evidenced by continued discovery near Loulo 3. The company took over the development of the underground from the contract miner in Q4 and saw an increase in development and record production in December. The company now anticipates getting the twin declines down to the high grade area at Yalea in October. Full production from this area should be expected to be seen early in 2011 when the stope development will be fully in place. Achieving an efficient underground operation at Loulo is essential for the company to fully unlock the value of its resource base, especially since the Kibali deposit has a significant portion of its resources underground. The operation will continue to benefit from the flexibility of satellite deposits like Loulo 3 allowing it to meet production targets. The company expects to produce 410 Koz in 2010.
NH
Morila: Mining of the open pit ceased last year and the operation shifted to treating the stockpiles. This has seen the capitalised costs associated with building the stockpiles being drawn down. The operation produced 136.7 Koz attributable last year at a total cash cost of $480/oz. Production was marginally ahead of budget due to higher grades and better recoveries. The company expects to produce 90 koz in 2010.
Tongon: Appears to be ahead of schedule with the CIL tanks already in place and the first of the Mills on site. The mine will commission with soft milling oxide ore and the company has said this will occur at the beginning of Q4 2010, which is the original schedule. The company expects to produce 75 koz of gold this year.
NH
Massawa: The prefeasibility study was completed and the company has stated a revised resource statement of 1.93 moz of indicated open pittable attributable resources and 0.56 Moz of inferred under ground attributable ounces. This is a decrease on the previously announced inferred resource estimate of 3.39M oz however a continuous high grade structure has been identified which lifts the average grade to 3.96g/t . It is likely that this will continue to grow as the company explores further along strike. The company has also conducted metallurgical test work which has shown that the ore has a refractory portion which will require pressure oxidation on a flotation concentrate to achieve full recovery.
NH
Kibali: Reserves have been increased by 67% by infill drilling and relogging of the KCD zone core. An improved understanding of the geology and structure of the deposit has allowed the company to increase reserves and resources. The company has laid out a new plan for the development of the deposit and now expects to bring the operation into production a year earlier than previously estimated. Key to this is a relocation program which will be a phased approach but requires moving 15,000 people. The company has very good local relations at present as evidenced by two drill rigs currently drilling in the middle of the village. We believe that the company has the social and welfare programs well in hand and should therefore not be troubled by the community move.
It has been a busy year for the company; building a new mine (Tongon in Cote d’Ivoire), acquiring the Kibali deposit in a joint venture with AngloGold from Moto Mines, completing a prefeasibility study at Massawa in Senegal and commencing a prefeasibility at the Gounkoto deposit in Mali. Attributable reserves have increased by 60% and the company has moved to a sustainable platform with growth assured for the years to come. We reiterate our buy recommendation and 5000p target price.
NH
actually
NH
that’s probably the most detailed thing I have ever seen on Randgold
NH
tends to be ignored
NH
at the operational level
NH
just seen as gold proxy
BE
Yup.
BE
Which would take us into the argument of buying gold equities rather than gold ETFs ….
BE
Which is an argument I don’t much want to have.
BE
So should we move on?
NH
yes
12:02PM
NH
Thanks Lemmy
NH
we were just coming to the Kleinman Wire story
NH
Halfords on the prowl for deals
NH
but they are small
NH
Halfords, the retailer of bicycles and car accessories, is putting together a shopping list of high street chains in an attempt to accelerate its growth, I have learned.

At the top of the list for consideration right now is Hobbycraft, the crafts retailer which has been put up for sale. There are other businesses on Halfords’ shopping list, too: I’m told, for example, that it had a look at Pets At Home before its recent takeover by the private equity firm KKR.

NH
woof
NH
Halfords looked at Pets at Home
NH
what’s the logic in that?
NH
Hobbycraft, which is owned by the family which founded it 15 years ago, is worth about £70m and is being hawked around by the accountancy firm Grant Thornton.

Funding a takeover would not be difficult for Halfords, which has relatively little debt and is expected to grow its profits significantly this year. Although I’m told there’s no certainty that it will bid for Hobbycraft, Halfords’ chief executive, David Wild, is apparently interested in the fact that it has relatively little direct competition on the high street and has plenty of scope for expansion.

BE
Hobbycraft?
NH
Halfords had a decent Christmas, buoyed by the cold snap that gripped Britain. Even so, the link between car accessories and sewing kits is not immediately obvious, so investors’ reaction if Halfords does pursue a deal will be interesting.

My understanding is that Wild believes there may be considerable savings to be generated from back office costs such as distribution and logistics.

NH
For high street-watchers with long memories, the name Ward White will no doubt come to mind at this point. Back in 1989, Boots acquired Ward White, a conglomerate that at the time owned Halfords. It didn’t take long for that deal to become a byword for failed retail mergers and acquisitions.

Wild will no doubt be aware of that history when he decides whether or not to get out his chequebook.

NH
Ward White
NH
Crickey
NH
there’s a blast from the past
NH
an old City name that
12:03PM
NH
Okay
NH
it has just passed midday
NH
and…
NH
the market is still down
NH
off 1.7 points at 5,059
NH
anything else we should look at
BE
Er … Inmarsat?
NH
oh yes
NH
still waiting for the goods news
NH
but the shares are up today
Inmarsat (ISAT:LSE): Last: 720.00, up 12.5 (+1.77%), High: 726.50, Low: 708.00, Volume: 681.34k
BE
Yup – this pending news remains pending.
BE
Whatever it may be.
BE
But a US outfit called New Street Research has become tired of waiting
BE
Their note is incredibly noodly, but might be useful to someone who knows/cares about the sat industry.
BE
Inmarsat faces key decisions on new satellites – move
quickly to deploy by 2017 or wait until 2020? Choose a
simple design or an expensive multi-band system? We
increase our capex forecast but we also include value
for lower capex options. Our target price increases 20p
to 765p. With just 8% upside we downgrade to Neutral.
BE
Inmarsat’s ‘capex holiday’ could last for a further five or six years if it
chooses a cheap specification for its next generation satellites and delays
the deployment until the end of the life of the current I-4 system.
However, Inmarsat could move quickly to spend $2.0bn or more on a killer
Inmarsat-5 system design, perhaps adding Ka-band services for multi-Mbps
speeds and a giant step up in system capacity. This would intimidate its
rivals and impress key customers, even if it did not please investors hoping
for more cash generation. It might, however, bring forward a Harbinger bid.
BE
A wide range of alternative options are also open to Inmarsat for the design
and timing of the I-5 system. In this note we focus on two illustrative
scenarios – ‘early and expensive’ and ‘later, cheaper’. Chart 1, below,
shows that cash generation is at least maintained even in the ‘early and
expensive scenario’, which is our new base case for valuation:
BE
These two I-5 scenarios only represent a 52p difference in valuation, but the
impact on sentiment of an early end to the capex holiday may well be
greater than that. Assuming a 50% likelihood for each scenario our fair value
is currently 765p. With just 8% upside we shift from Buy to Neutral.
BE
Apologies for the lack of chart, but you can get the gist.
NH
ok thanks for that
BE
You got anything you want to look at?
NH
I have on Lloyds
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 47.08, down 1.23 (-2.56%), High: 48.68, Low: 47.08, Volume: 160.02m
NH
there is a re-weight coming
NH
but it is next week
NH
however, we are in the middle of pricing period
NH
for a debt for equity swap
NH
this is a few weeks old
NH
from a sector watcher
NH
but explains what is happening
NH
and why the price could be volatile
NH
Worth flagging the anticipated, but most likely overlooked, debt-to-equity conversion which will take place in three weeks time. The key details are as follows: 1) There is GBP1.5bn of debt converting into ordinary equity. 2) We expect this to result in the issuance of c.2.9bn additional shares. The actual conversion price will be the greater of the VWAP between 5-11th Feb or 90% of the closing price on 11th Feb.
NH
We currently estimate a price of 52.6p per share. 3) This roughly equates to 4% of the current outstanding share count and will cause some re-weighting for index funds. Internal estimates for demand equate to 2-3 days of volume.
NH
In terms of timeline, we expect an announcement from LLOY on Feb 12th detailing the conversion price and the number of ordinary shares to be issued. We expect the re-weightng to the new shares to be complete by COB on Feb. 17th.
NH
The new shares should begin trading on 18th Feb. The GBP1.5bn conversion is built into our fully diluted share count of 66bn. We continue to believe that Lloyds is a high convinction BUY, driven by margin expansion, shrinking impairments, and cost sysnergies from the HBOS deal, and view current weakness as an opportunity to continue building a position.
NH
Right
NH
hope that all makes sense
BE
Actually, Ian Gordon has commented on the Lloyds coco as well.
BE
This is Exane’s star banking analyst
BE
A few new things to worry about?
It is hard to disaggregate the drivers of the recent plunge in Lloyds’ shares (down 11%
in 3 days). We suspect (as in December) that a disproportionate element relates to
overly aggressive positioning ahead of the planned GBP1.48bn new equity issuance
to subordinated debt holders. This compounds the problem as we are still mid-way
through the price-determination period. Also, Lloyds has suffered negative sentiment
from the blow-out in Sovereign CDS spreads – in terms of impact on Lloyds’ own CDS
spreads and a (perceived) adverse impact on future margin evolution. Furthermore,
as a stock most obviously positively geared to a recovery, the scope for adverse
macro deterioration is being read (in our view excessively) onto Lloyds.
BE
Still a clear case for Government intervention
We still believe that Lloyds should abandon its plans to issue GBP1.48bn of New
Equity (set to be confirmed on 12 February 2010). Our report, Why not pay cash? 2
February 2010, outlined why it could and should avoid value-transfer from existing
shareholders to converting subordinated debt holders. For 43.4% shareholder UKFI,
at the margin, the effect of the (avoidable) dilution will likely be to delay share price
recovery to its average in-price of 74.35p, and thus defer the UK Government’s exit
from the stock (which might yet be achievable by 2012/13.) UKFI should take time out
from its scrutiny on RBS bonus payments to protect the taxpayer’s interest here.
BE
Still positive, but not delusional
We have previously rejected the idea that Lloyds might trade at 100p this year. The
prospect of (marginal) additional dilution next week coupled with a dampening of
margin recovery expectations may sound the death-knell for such excess
bullishness. However, Lloyds still offers material upside with reconfirmation of
improving impairment and margin trends highly likely at results on 26 February.
12:10PM
NH
thanks for that
NH
Mervyn – it was ARM
NH
and they went in today
NH
and they are down
ARM Holdings (ARM:LSE): Last: 199.00, down 6 (-2.93%), High: 204.00, Low: 199.00, Volume: 5.16m
12:10PM
NH
Right
NH
something rare
NH
some eco RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
BE
?
NH
OK
NH
this is really RAW
NH
could be a financial comet
NH
but here goes
NH
GREECE: DBK/UNICREDIT NOT LENDING IN REPO MKT-WEBSITE
NH
- According to a highly speculative and unconfirmed report on
www.bankingnews.gr, Deutsche Bank and UniCredit Group are no longer lending.
- Locals say the website and reporter are reputable and well-informed.
NH
http://www.bankingnews.gr/bank-insider/item/1246-Η-Deutsche-Bank-και-η-Unicredit-Group-δεν-δανείζουν-τις-ελληνικές-τράπεζες-στην-repo-αγορά.html
NH
and from the Google Translator
BE
Oh dear. Emoticon
NH

- We came to where big banks like Deutsche Bank German and Italian Unicredit
Group does not accept bonds as collateral Greek and refuse to lend in the
repo market for Greek banks.
- It should be noted that Greek banks say when we mean big banks too big.
- In the last 2 to 3 weeks 3 -4 Greek banks have been requested by Deutsche
Bank and Unicredit Group to lend in the repo market, but refused on the
grounds that they do not want to risk having to Greek bonds.
- Of course other banks continue to lend the Greek banks, but only 2 to 3
weeks. What are these soon revealing reportage.
BE
Right then.
NH
might explain
NH
why we couldn’t hold the early highs
NH
this this story is getting round now
NH
being hit with it from lots of brokers
NH
NO MORE LIQUIDITY FOR GREEK BANKS….
NH
Deutsche Bank and Unicredit Group are no longer lending Greek banks in the repo market…Source… http://www.bankingnews.gr/bank-insider/item/1246-Ç-Deutsche-Bank-êáé-ç-
Unicredit-Group-äåí-äáíåßæïõí-ôéò-åëëçíéêÝò-ôñÜÔåæåò-óôçí-repo-áãïñÜ.html
BE
Ok – we do have to stress this is rumourtrage
NH
it is
NH
totally unconfirmed
BE
And, as noted above, highly speculative.
NH
interesting though
BE
Ok, should we start to wrap up now?
NH
just having a look round europe
NH
spain down again
NH
off 0.7 per cent now
NH
but Portugal up
NH
1%
NH
FTSE 100 off 13 points now
NH
rumours obviously flying around
NH
Right
NH
anything else to look at?
NH
any small caps?
BE
None caught my eye this morning, to be honest.
BE
You?
BE
Nice to see the affection towards Arm among the ROTR
BE
It is a fine, fine company (which, obviously, is different from a fine fine stock)
NH
On Arm
NH
this is what the passive funds need to buy
NH
5.5 days of passive buying on an entry to the FTSE.
NH
and the short base is high
BE
And there’s about a 7 per cent bear in it as well
BE
I know a few of the big houses sold out of Arm way back when Robin Saxby and his team stepped back
BE
Got a feeling it’s underowned.
BE
Anyway, that’s all my opinion. Let’s shunt back to the smallcaps.
BE
Did you have anything Neil?
NH
nope
NH
nothing
NH
all macro
NH
sovereign risk at the moment
BE
It’s been a tricky morning, it has to be said.
BE
Not helped by IT snafus.
NH
not helped at all
NH
it’s midday
NH
I really don’t feel with it
BE
Likewise
NH
not happy with this morning’s probs
NH
anyhow
NH
that’s it for today
NH
ML has worked its magic
NH
FTSE down on the day
NH
off 10 points at 5,050
NH
and for anyone worried about Greece
NH
don’t be
NH
the Americans aren;t
NH
judging by this article in the WSJ
NH
Should the woes of a country with fewer people than metropolitan Los Angeles really roil the massive U.S. financial markets?

This is a hotly debated question after worries about Greece’s debt woes sparked wild swings in the U.S. stock market last week. Signs that the trouble in the Greek bond market was infecting others in Europe helped send the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a spiral Thursday and most of Friday before a late-day rebound turned the market back to positive territory.

NH
But for some, it is a tempest in a teapot. While not dismissing the challenge facing those countries, some say it is simply not a material problem for the U.S. markets, especially stocks. They say last week’s tumult was driven by short-term hysteria about a tiny bond market to which U.S. companies, especially banks and other financials whose stocks were hard hit last week, have very little direct exposure.

NH
Investors should instead focus on the improving U.S. economy and another round of better-than-expected corporate profit reports for the fourth quarter. If anything, the U.S. should continue to provide a safe haven for investors
NH
TL EmoticonEmoticon
NH
Michael O’Rourke, market strategist at broker dealer BTIG, notes that the Greek stock market’s capitalization is only slightly bigger than Citigroup’s. Adding together all the troubled economies in Europe, “they will equal the size of one systemic institution in the United States.” Mr. O’Rourke writes. Supporting the outlook for U.S. stocks, “most S&P 500 companies have better balance sheets than most sovereigns, including the United States.”

BE
Hm. Parochial.
NH
Mr. Gurwitz puzzled over the fixation on Greece when U.S. investors have an even bigger problem in their own backyard that so far most are ignoring.

The California situation is much more important than Greece,” he says. Greece comprises about 2% of Europe’s gross domestic product, while California—struggling to pay its debts—represents more than 10% of the U.S. economy, he says. “Yet nobody’s talking about California,” he says.

NH
indeed
NH
parochial
NH
insular
NH
myopic
NH
take your pick
NH
and that point is made late in the article
NH
Morgan Stanley’s Mr. McVey acknowledges that at some $350 billion, Greece’s bond market is tiny, but he says that is missing the point. The turn of events in Europe “is no different than what you saw at the investment banks: the market doesn’t want to do business with over-levered entities,” he says.

The result, he says, is an even more challenging economic recovery. “Investors are going to increase the cost of capital for over-leveraged entities—governments or corporations, particularly financial institutions that do not get their financial houses in order quickly,” he says.

NH
right
NH
that’s it
NH
the Lunch Wrap must go
NH
thanks for logging on today
BE
Oh, and Mungers, if you’re still tuned in: I note your views, but am still prepared to bet you five whole English pounds that Glencore will exercise the option for Prodeco.
NH
for MarcoLive
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily economics discussion
NH
until tomorrow
NH
goodbye
BE
With the occasional mention of some stocks.
BE
Goodbye.
NH
cya
Print