February 5th, 2010
The Blankfein bonus: $9m in stock (updated)
A number that has been keenly anticipated: the 2009 compensation for Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd C Blankfein.
Drum roll…
Some 58,381 restricted shares – worth just under $9m on Friday’s closing quote.
US consumer credit uncrunched?
Something to celebrate, surely? Consumer debt shrank by a palty $1.7bn in December, the smallest contraction since last February and way below the $9bn contraction expected by economists.
In fact, the contraction in consumer debt is just a tenth of that originally seen in November,
Wobble? What wobble?
Or, “Who cares about Portugal/Greece/Spain/Italy/UK?”
Or, “It was a fat finger in WTI; never seen a computerised trading glitch?”
Or, “Gold is a very small market; it points to nothing.”
Or, “Contagion? We’ve had the jab.”
Should Guy Hands be barred from Britain?
Based on the contents of this delirious court filing we would argue that the answer is an unequivocal “yes.”
That’s not because Guy Hands, the founder of Terra Firma and, by extension, the boss of EMI,
WTI Friday meltdown
That’s crude on Friday afternoon, the same day BlueGold Capital Management fiercely denied rumours of company-related liquidations in the WTI market.
Related link:
Bluegold hedge fund denies causing
Ackerman’s flow monster
We drew attention on Thursday to Deutsche Bank’s tranformation over the course of 2009 into a ‘flow’ oriented business.
The move proved particularly profitable for the bank in the early part of the year,
The second lien sticking-point
Just a datapoint for you, as the debate over the US Treasury’s Hamp programme rages on.
As a reminder, the Home Affordable Modification Plan aims to help keep people in their houses primarily by lowering interest rate payments.
And the 2009 US payroll revisions show…
. . . significantly more job cuts in 2009 than originally estimated — about 617,000 more in fact.
Here’s the relevant table from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The sharpest revision was for March;
US payrolls fell in January – 20,000 jobs lost
Goldman were right – US employers cut jobs in January.
Payrolls fell by 20,000, significantly more than economists had forecast, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday afternoon.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Friday morning,
- Spencer sells, Icap warns and the City reacts.
- Europe is Lehman-fied, part trois.
- That Grεεk CDS trιggεr.
- Swiss intervention goes abroad?
- Next up for Europe,
Bluegold hedge fund denies causing WTI volatility
There are some very intriguing flashes coming out on Reuters regarding the BlueGold hedge fund on Friday:
RTRS-HEDGE FUND BLUE GOLD DENIES IT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICES IN LAST FEW DAYS
RTRS-HEDGE FUND BLUE GOLD SAYS OIL OUTLOOK BULLISH FOR 2010,
Carry trades and reverberations Down Under
Australia might be a long way from Europe and the US, but the impact of events in those far-off regions has added to Tuesday’s surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold interest rates – prompting some top forecasters to call an end to the Aussie dollar’s dream run.
Markets Live transcript 5 Feb 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:17 on 5 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHTin hat on NH BECheck
[Mining Indaba 2010] Day IV (over and out)
By Matthew Kennard:
This is going to be a truncated (and my last) dispatch. Although Indaba calls itself a four-day conference, it’s really not. Thursday is pack-up day for the companies in the main hall (and Corporate Social Responsibility day in the lecture theatre).
Europe is Lehman-fied, part trois
On Thursday we noted that a number of interesting things were happening in the CDS market. Here are some further reflections, via Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid.
First, Portugal’s 5-year CDS (+28bps yesterday,
Swiss intervention in Asia overnight?
It’s no secret in FX markets that the Swiss National Bank eagerly defended the 1.50 EURCHF level for most of 2009.
Many analysts, however, were under the impression the days of SNB intervention were now long gone.
That Grεεk CDS trιggεr
Greek CDS continues its Icarusian journey, reaching another record on Thursday.
Meanwhile, its CDS curve remains inverted — indicating that the market thinks there’s a higher risk the country will default in the short-term,
This little sovereign went to market…
For your consideration, a selection of five-year sovereign CDS spreads from Europe as of Thursday’s close:
And for comparison, some non-European peripheral CDS spreads. First the US:
And representing the CEE,
The European exit strategy, revisited
We’ve seen charts like the below before, but they are still striking:
That’s a Goldman Sachs snapshot of European central bank liquidity. As you can see, it basically falls off a cliff come summer 2010,
Spencer sells, Icap warns and the City reacts
Ouch.
That’s the price action in Icap on Friday morning after the inter-dealer broker warned on profits.
Icap now expects underlying pretax profits for the year to March 2010 to come in between £295-£315m.
Very good reasons to buy Toyota (cars and stocks)
In the volumes about “Toyota terror” cascading forth from the media, the FT’s Philip Stephens’ keenly counter-intuitive take stands out as a beacon of provocative — and we think persuasive — reasoning.
EMI – a (on)going concern? (updated)
Maltby Capital Limited, the vehicle Guy Hands used to acquire EMI for £4.2bn shortly before the credit markets collapsed a couple of years ago, has filed results and financial statements for the year to March 31,
Santander’s deteriorating ratio
Analysts mostly put a positive spin on Santander’s fourth quarter results on Thursday — interpreting the bank’s rise in provisioning as prudent rather than a signal of distress — but that didn’t stop Santander’s shares sinking on the day.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Model-oggling Macquarie banker keeps his job.
- The Devil really does wear Prada, or how luxury changes people.
- What happened the last time the UK defaulted?
- A scary subprime chart.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Gillian Tett: The race for Greece before the ECB exits
Warren Buffett famously observed that it is only when the tide goes out, that you can see who is swimming naked.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Icap warns profits for the year to 31 March 2010 will be in the range £295 million to £315 million – statement.
- British Airways reports third quarter operating profit of £25m – statement.