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Markets Live transcript 4 Feb 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:21 on 4 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
Hola
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily whiz around the markets
NH
which starts at 11.03am sharp
NH
every morning
NH
apart from Sat and Sun
NH
Right
NH
a European feel to things this morning
NH
Spain and Portugal being hit hard for a second day
NH
equities, bonds falling
NH
CDS rising
NH
Ibex 35 in Spain
NH
off 2.4% at the moment
NH
and in Portugal
NH
down 4.2%
BE
Yikes.
NH
that’s the PSI 20 index
NH
ouch
BE
So the contagion is spreading
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
NH
time in Portugal
NH
and once it has made its way through the Iberian peninsular
NH
the next stop is…..
BE
The UK
NH
I fear so – and a sterling crisis to boot
NH
time to open up those Euro bank accounts
BE
(“capacete” is tin hat in Portuguese, apparently.)
BE
Well, FTSE 100′s down at the moment
BE
off 44 points at 5,208
NH
hmmmm
NH
almost back below 5,200
NH
that rally didn’t last long
BE
Nope.
NH
Okay
NH
before we get back to the markets
NH
competition time
BE
Excellent.
NH
BoE announcement at midday
NH
and what will the MPC do?
NH
will it leave rates on hold?
NH
will it end QE?
NH
or pause?
NH
or pause and ask for more?
NH
or extend?
NH
don’t have a prize at the moment
NH
but we could probably russle one up
NH
answers on the right pls.
NH
Bryce
NH
what are you going for?
BE
Um ……
BE
I reckon conservatism will rule here
BE
So rates held, obviously
BE
Plus pause, and ask for more.
NH
OK, I agree on rates
NH
and also on the pause
NH
but they will ask for some more ammo
NH
probably another £50bn
NH
to be kept in reserve
NH
for when the sovereign contagion reaches these shores
BE
Yup – that seems to be the path that’d spook the least number of people.
BE
Initially.
BE
Right – so back to the market?
NH
before we do
NH
we can’t let this past
NH
Monkey would never forgive us
NH
A Premier League football manager could be questioned by vice squad officers after he was pictured leaving a ‘massage parlour’, it emerged last night.

Portsmouth boss Avram Grant has come to the attention of police after they launched an investigation into a brothel where prostitutes charge £130 for intercourse.

The married father of two was pictured by The Sun entering and leaving the building on a shabby industrial estate near his club’s training ground, before clambering into a chauffeur-driven car.

BE
Ok – enough said on that.
NH
indeed
NH
bottom of the league
NH
can’t pay their wages
NH
winding up order hanging over them
NH
and now this
BE
We have different interpretations of “enough,” Neil.
BE
Let’s move on.
NH
yes let’s
11:11AM
BE
So – where to start?
NH
Tao – sorry
BE
Wider market?
NH
zap
Warning to rude and abusive commenters – your ability to comment will be terminated immediately and permanently, without warning. Henceforth, FTAlphaville has instituted a One Strike and You Are Out policy. We’ve had enough. We are going to clean up these pixels once and for all.
NH
no
NH
not the wider market
NH
I want to start with a bit of RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
a slightly unusual cut of RAW admittedly
NH
but it could prove to be quite tasty
NH
Inmarsat
BE
Aha.
BE
Remarkable market yesterday.
BE
Volume about three times the average.
NH
(NJS – Taxloss and TB need to say Sorry)
BE
Stock at an all-time high
BE
And some normally quite smart people seemed to be buying it up there.
BE
Any idea why?
NH
sort of
BE
Go on.
NH
well, the rumour is there is going to be something very positive out tomorrow
NH
or soon after
BE
Er, like what?
NH
dunno
BE
Hm. That’s certainly unorthodox RAW
NH
I can tell you what it won’t be
BE
Go on then. That’s a start.
NH
well, I don’t think Harbinger
NH
(that’s the hedge fund controlled by Philip ‘The Midas of Misery’ Falcone)
NH
is going to be bid for the 70% of the company it does not already own
BE
So it it going to sell?
NH
dunno
BE
They’ve been batting about the “bid” idea for nearly two years now.
NH
(Taxloss Emoticon – never apologise, never explain)
BE
And Inmarsat is a complicated company in a ridiculously complex sector.
NH
indeed
BE
It could be lots of things.
NH
lots of weird and wonderful companies
BE
but it is worth pointing out this is a pretty unique asset
BE
very few people do what they do
BE
but are you absolutely sure something positive is coming out?
NH
well, that’s the rumour
NH
and look
NH
if it’s wrong blame Murph
BE
Hm. It’s worth remembering ….
BE
That back in 2008, when Harbinger was finally shaken down for a statement saying he was looking at a bid
BE
The shares did precicely nothing.
NH
they are certainly quite expensive
NH
that’s for sure
BE
And there does sometimes seem to be a disconnect between what’s in the public domain and what’s in the “market” for this one.
NH
(Daddy and there’s a bit at the top for the military. spooks and stuff)
BE
Anyway, what’s the price doing this morning?
NH
hang on
Inmarsat (ISAT:LSE): Last: 720.00, down 0.5 (-0.07%), High: 726.50, Low: 716.50, Volume: 579.90k
NH
(Lemmy – yellow)
NH
(Yes Cit – it’s like mission control at Houston)
BE
(And Daddy – yes, the building overlooking the Old Street roundabout.)
11:18AM
NH
Moving on
NH
Right
NH
I need to get this off my chest
NH
Yell
BE
Yup
BE
shares up 12%
BE
And I have no idea why.
BE
none at all
Yell Group (YELL:LSE): Last: 41.37, up 4.57 (+12.42%), High: 41.67, Low: 38.01, Volume: 21.73m
NH
know this is bonkers
NH
totally bonkers
NH
I can only assume it is short covering
NH
because THIS quarter is OK
NH
but the outlook is awful
NH
things just aren’t getting better
NH
and with all Yell’s debts
NH
they need to
NH
so,
NH
revenue for the three months to end March is done
NH
booked etc
BE
Right.
NH
and guess what it is down?
BE
I know. 16%
BE
I looked at the statement
BE
and that’s not good
BE
because it is worse than previous quarter which was 13.3% at constant exchange rates
NH
indeed
NH
and Yell still reckon this is cyclical not structural
NH
it’s as if the internet never happened
NH
which I completely disagree with obviously
NH
here’s the outlook bit from today’s statement
NH
Revenue in the three months ending 31 March 2010 is largely sold and we expect it to decline by 16% at constant currency, reflecting the traditionally slower relative growth of books in that quarter and continuing effect of the economic slowdown during the relevant selling period on both print and internet revenues. We expect EBITDA for the full year ending 31 March 2010 to be at least £600 million as we continue investing for future growth for when the economy in each of our markets begins to recover.
NH
now let’s suppose this isn’t cyclical
BE
Well, the shares shouldn’t be 40p
BE
Possibly half that?
NH
at least
NH
anyway all bonkers
NH
Merrill are the big cheerleader for this stock
NH
probably coz they did the cash call
NH
and one of their ex-bankers is chairman
BE
How cynical.
BE
Like Punch, you mean?
NH
yes
NH
Merrill did the fund raising there
NH
and they reckon the NAV of Punch is above 200p
NH
in spite of the evidence to the contrary
NH
anyway
NH
here’s their very rosy view of life on planet Yell
NH
Q3 statement encouraging
Q3 revenue growth is slightly ahead of expectations at -13.3% constant FX.
Guidance for Q3 and Q4 had been at -16%, following on from -15.6% in Q2 and -
10.4% in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA of £476.5m after 9m also looks strong, implying a
margin of 31.3%, underpinned by further incremental cost savings flow through.
Cash conversion of 119% reflects the release of working capital on lower sales,
tight cash management but also the attractive cash dynamics of the business.
NH
Online growth and resilient retention rates
Within the mix, online revenue grew +13.5% over 9m and now represents 20% of
group and 30% of UK revenue. By region UK L4L revenue was -12%, US -13.2%
and Spain -16.7%. Encouragingly, unique advertiser retention rates remain fairly
stable across each market (71% UK, 68% US, 77% Spain) suggesting no major
change in customer perception of the effectiveness of the product.
NH
Outlook comments – guidance reiterated
Understandably, management is reluctant to be too positive too early, sticking
with its guidance of -16% organic revenue decline in Q4. Intuitively this feels
conservative given the Q3 figure came in ahead but there are various mix issues
that will impact Q4. More importantly, the sales team is currently canvassing for
Q1 2010/11 books and while there is no direct guidance here, the implication is
that the rate of revenue decline continues to ease.
NH
Valuation and PO
We are not changing forecasts at this stage although the Q3 figure and reiteration
of guidance underpins our confidence in numbers. EBITDA guidance for FY2010
is ‘at least £600m’ and we feel very confident it can beat this number (BofAML
£615m), with the level of reinvestment the biggest delta on the outcome. We
retain our Buy recommendation and PO of 50p based on DCF (WACC 9.8%, TG
BE
And here’s a line from Thomas Singlehurst at Citi
BE
3Q Results: Better Revenue; EBITDA In Line (although better than consensus)
Yell has reported 9M revenues of £1,523m (vs. Citi £1,495m) and EBITDA of
£476.5m (vs. Citi £480.5m). The focus number is the 3Q organic revenue run rate
which declined -13.3% vs. guidance of -16%. We should also note that while
EBITDA was mildly below our expectation, it does appear to be above consensus,
which was looking for c.£460m. All in all, a solid quarter.
NH
OK
NH
that’s more sensible
BE
Outlook: Talk of Confidence But 4Q Outlook Disappointingly Weak
Yell talks of more confidence in current sales canvasses that should feed through
to the fiscal 1Q 2011. The issue is the 4Q guidance where the group is talking
about a further organic decline of -16% at the topline. This compares with the
-13.3% run-rate from the 3Q and more importantly jars with quite a substantial
improvement in the comparable from fiscal 2009 (from -4% 3Q09 to -12% 4Q09).
The company cites timing issues (both of economic recovery and book publication
dates) but it is strange that we are looking for a sequential deterioration.
Financial Leverage Slightly Better
Group net debt was at £3.0bn better than our £3.2bn forecast. Given the leverage
in the model this is useful. The group also confirmed that it is trading within all
covenants.
BE
Our View: Decent 3Q But Expect Consensus Numbers Unchanged
The 3Q is solid, and the commentary on outlook is encouraging. That said, the
fact that this not reflected in actual guidance is slightly disappointing. As and
when recovery does come, operational gearing should be pronounced, and
valuation at c.5x 2011E P/E is not challenging, that said the lack of expected
upgrades holds us back from being more positive. We rate Yell Hold.
NH
thanks for that
NH
the bull and the bear case
BE
On your Merrill cynicism, do you ever read the market report in the Evening Standard?
NH
I did as it happens
NH
the one by Simon English
NH
good hack
BE
At least one veteran stock market player reckons he’s managed to make a good living from the City with the following simple strategy: take note of what the lads at Merrill Lynch are recommending, and bet heavily the other way.
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
NH
that’s very good
BE
Yup – enjoyed that. Gave me a chuckle on the red line.
NH
it would be interesting
NH
to make a UK basket up
NH
of Merrill tips
NH
and test that
BE
Hm.
NH
Murph
NH
was always banging on about stuff like that
NH
but never got round to it
NH
anyway
BE
There are some good analysts at Merrill, and there’s some maintenence research.
BE
Same as all houses, really.
BE
Ok – where now?
11:29AM
NH
Well
NH
I guess we should have a look at Voda
NH
big move
NH
for a big stock
Vodafone Group (VOD:LSE): Last: 140.50, up 6 (+4.46%), High: 141.80, Low: 138.50, Volume: 149.66m
BE
Yup
BE
Big move on a small trading update
BE
the main feature of which is a £500m bump to cash
BE
2010 free cashflow guidance to £6.5bn-£7.0bn
NH
That sounds positive.
BE
It does, although the statement’s a bit fuzzy as to where the improvement’s come from
BE
“the benefit of the working capital improvement programme and other factors”
BE
Plus there’s no P&L or cashflow data in the update
NH
(property boy – that’s a big question to answerEmoticon)
BE
So it’s questionable whether this upgrade on non-operational items worth anything much
BE
Here’s a line from SocGen
BE
Considering that telcos carry no inventories, working capital improvements are likely to be driven by increasing pressure on their suppliers (likely for later payments). It is questionable how recurring this driver would be.
NH
What about the operating profit guidance? Wasn’t that upgraded as well?
BE
Well, it was bumped £200m as the mid-point.
BE
2010 EBIT range tightened a bit to £11.4bn-£11.8bn from £11.0bn-£11.8bn
BE
Which you could read as reassuring, I guess.
BE
Although it’s on the back of a lower depreciation charge
BE
And, while there’s the usual curate’s egg when it comes to regional trading
NH
You don’t sound terribly impressed with this.
BE
I’m not, terribly. Margins in line
BE
It’s all just cash management. It doesn’t seem to add up to much.
BE
But I guess it’s not the profit warning we had in the second quarter
BE
And, given how long Vodafone’s been flatlining, a bit of reassurance is enough.
BE
However, the stockpushers seem agreed that there has been some kind of inflection point
BE
Here’s Deutsche Bank
BE
We were looking for an inflection point in Vodafone’s organic revenue growth in Q3 and the Co. delivered a full 1.4pp improvement in Europe and 1.8pp globally. This is a very important event post the recent multi-quarter growth deterioration. We believe growth will improve further with the economy (specifically employment growth) and a secular contribution from mobile data. Vodafone shares are very cheap (<8x PE, 6.5% div yield) and improving confidence on growth will see the shares re-rated. We reiterate our Buy rating (TP 185p).

Group revenues of £11.55bn 1% higher than DB (£11.44bn). Group organic growth of -1.2%, 1.8pp better than Q2 and 1.4pp better than DB. Europe service revenues £7.21bn, 0.8% better than DB (£7.15bn). Europe organic growth of -3.2% vs DB -4.1% and -4.6% last quarter (ie growth inflection well and truly achieved). Germany growth 2.1pp better than last Q (mobile 1.8pp better), UK 1.7pp better, Spain 0.1pp better (mobile 0.4pp better).

BE
Other 3.2pp better. Only Italy deteriorated by 0.7pp. ACE service revs £1.99bn vs DB £2.01bn (organic growth -0.5% vs DB -2.9%). Turkey was a significant beat (+12.9% vs DB 1.4%). Asia Pac service revs £1.57bn vs DB £1.57bn (org growth 10.4% vs DB 8.3%). India +13.8% better than DB 13.2% and cons.10%.

Group FCF guidance raised from £6.0-6.5bn to £6.5-7.0bn chiefly due to working capital. DB already at £7.0bn (£7.1bn on same forex basis as Co.). Capex in 9m is £4.0bn just two-thirds of our FY est. Q4 capex is usually high but potential for a FY beat. EBIT guidance moves up from £11.0-11.8bn to £11.4-11.8bn (DB at £11.7bn on same forex basis, cons at 11.4-11.5bn) chiefly on £2.0bn lower D&A.

BE
And JP Morgan
BE
Q3 results – Trends better than expected, guidance raised, an inflection point?
BE
Q3 IMS statement better than expected with service revenues 1.0% above our forecast at £10,734m (+11%). Organic revenue growth at – 1.2% y/y is 180bp better than the -3.0% reported in Q2. The key highlight is the organic European service revenue growth rate of -3.2% which compares to consensus -4.2% and -4.6% in Q2.

• Improvements seen in most markets helped by both messaging and roaming revenues, suggesting both management action and macro starting to have a positive impact. Turkey also experiencing a sharp turnaround. Whilst many trends remain negative, this may finally represent an inflection point for Vodafone.

• Outlook for 2009/10: Free cash flow guidance increased by 7% to £6.5-7.0bn (from £6.0-6.5bn), mainly reflecting an improvement in working capital. Operating profit guidance moved to the top end of the previous range although this mainly reflects a £200m lower depreciation with only a small improvement in trading and associates contribution. New range is now £11.4-11.8bn compared with £11.0-11.8bn before; currency assumptions unchanged (€1.12 and $1.50:£1).

BE
European trends were a 140 basis point improvement on Q2 and 100
basis points better than consensus. Organic growth of -3.2% vs
consensus of -4.2% and -4.6% in Q2, -4.4% in Q1. Improvement
driven by flat messaging revenues (-3.8% in Q2) and a strong
performance from other service revenue (+34% driven by roaming and
wholesale improvements). Voice trends stable at -10% with data still
growing strongly at +16%. Trends improved in Germany (-2.8% vs -
4.9% in Q2), the UK (-4.9% vs -6.6% in Q2) and Portugal. Growth
slowed a little in Italy (+0.7% vs +1.0% in Q2) and trends remain weak
in Spain (-6.8% vs -6.9% in Q2).
NH
ta for that
NH
but bored with Vod now
BE
Yup – as to the Verizon Wireless dividend (as mentioned to the right) – who knows?
BE
The whole argument there remains “irresistible force versus immovable object”
NH
I reckon it’s time for some banks
11:35AM
BE
Ok – should we start in Spain?
NH
yes
NH
Santander
NH
good figures out this morning
NH
once gain the duck the bullets
NH
yet
NH
the shares are down 2.6% at the moment
NH
proving the sovereign fears are outweighing the debt stuff
NH
here’s a bit of broker comment
NH
SUMMARY: All in all, no surprises with the bank concentrating the extra
provisioning effort in credits (through higher generics) and property (now
covered 30% plus MVC at €25 per share). The good numbers don’t look like they
were enough to dispel the macro concerns in Spain in the short-term. Don’t
think consensus will be changing much in their numbers and once the overall
macro situation in Spain is clear SANTANDER will be one of the first stocks
many will look to buy. I mean come on…they’ve got Lewis Hamilton building
Lego bridges for them…they can do anything…they are SANTANDER.
NH
and something on the loans
NH
NPLs in Spain up 43bps (+26bps in 3Q09) to 3.41% with coverage up 6pp to 73%
thanks to the extra generics. Larger NPL formation than in 3Q09 but nothing
extraordinary.
NH
OUTLOOK:
– Expects demanding year
– Expects recovery in all regions but with differing degrees
– Sees continued deleveraging in mature markets but more normalisation in
emerging markets.
– No capital/liquidity restrictions
- See Page 57 for NPLs
NH
so
NH
that’s the first bank to look at
NH
the second is RBS
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS:LSE): Last: 34.10, down 1.28 (-3.62%), High: 35.62, Low: 34.00, Volume: 36.05m
BE
Aha – a U-turn this morning by Ian Gordon
BE
That’s the Exane guy who seems to be quite widely followed at the moment
NH
indeed
NH
and he has got cold feet on his RBS recommendation
NH
so its one of these double downgrades
NH
from out to underperform
NH
ostensibly on valuation
NH
sorry
NH
it is only a single DG
NH
gone to Neutral
NH
Despite 27% year-to-date relative outperformance vs European banks, we remain
comfortable with RBS, with the stock’s relative cheapness (0.75x 2011e tNAV)
continuing to compensate for material political and economic uncertainties, and
execution risks. Moreover, we highlight the fact that the “glass ceiling” represented by
the UK Government’s average in-price of 50.53p is not “in play” at current levels.
However, especially ahead of full-year results, we see significantly better risk/reward
in Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group, so we downgrade RBS back to Neutral
BE
So, that’s ahead of the annual numbers.
NH
yes
NH
he is a bit worried about them
NH
Looking ahead to results on 25 February 2010, we expect confirmation of the declining
trend of losses within the non-core division to gradually refocus investor attention on
the sustainable earnings potential of the core businesses. As summarised in the chart
below, Q3 2009 saw a material reduction in the negative contribution from the non-core
portfolios, and we expect the trend to continue, with the most severe hits in terms of
asset price-related impairments and writedowns driven by downgrades to monoline
insurer counterparties now likely to have already been taken.
NH
However, following a sharp year-to-date rally, outperforming the European banks index by
almost 30%, RBS now trades at 0.75x 2011e tNAV, an equivalent discount to the strongly
profitable, and more defensively positioned, Barclays. As discussed in our report Enough is
Enough, 26 January 2010, Barclays suffered an extraordinary sell-off in response to (we
believe) misplaced capital fears, and although the stock has since recovered by 7%, we see
no compelling reason why it should trade at any discount to tNAV.
Lloyds Banking Group trades on 1.0x 2011e tNAV, yet (we believe) offers much greater
certainty in terms of the profile of its expected sharp decline in impairments and net
interest margin recovery. This provides greater confidence that the path back to
delivery of a mid-teens Return on Equity may be accomplished by 2012/13 than is
currently the case for RBS.
BE
But the switch advice isn’t really doing any favours for Barclays or Lloyds.
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 53.07, down 1.93 (-3.51%), High: 55.06, Low: 52.50, Volume: 104.21m
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 286.15, down 9.2 (-3.11%), High: 295.80, Low: 284.45, Volume: 24.21m
BE
Actually, since we mention Lloyds
BE
There’s one more note out today that’s worth a look, despite the price direction
NH
is this the Redburn one
NH
they are usually worth reading
BE
Yup – Jon Kirk’s the analyst on this
BE
Thesis: Upgrade to Buy. LBG’s recent wholesale funding successes allied with
in-depth analysis of long-term funding costs and loan pricing lead us to make
a margin-driven c30% increase in 2012 EPS. Positive surprises in UK
commercial property also meaningfully lower near-term impairment charges.
BE
LBG is disproving the bear case by funding independently and economically.
We calculate that LBG must issue £35bn of >1 year wholesale funding in 2010. In
January alone LBG raised 23% of this without state support, including seven-year
money at a cost of 130bp vs new mortgage spreads of 190bp.
> Margin upgrade adds c30% to 2012 EPS. We take into account a more
conservative liability structure and higher funding costs. Loan pricing estimates are
based on today’s new business, historic pricing and an ROE cross-check
analysis. Together this leads us to add 30bp (15%) to 2012 margin forecasts.
BE
> LBG’s other big problem, commercial property, ends 2009 on a high. UK
prices rose 8% qoq in 4Q09, supported by peak-cycle levels of investment. The
benign impact on loan impairments of an upgrade to our commercial property
price forecasts cuts 2010 EPS losses by 44%.
> LBG is well placed to cope with regulatory challenges. LBG can absorb
worst-case ‘Basel 3’ impacts (including the ban on double counting) and still
maintain its equity tier 1 above 10.5%. The bank’s liquidity position is appropriate:
we estimate that just 6% of loans will be short-term wholesale funded by 2012.
> 2011E tangible book rises 10% to 62p. Target price is 92p, 68% upside.
NH
ta for that
NH
92p
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
NH
interesting call
BE
It is. Right, is that enough banks?
NH
more than enough
11:44AM
BE
Interesting story just appeared on Kleinmanwire.
NH
go on
BE
Well, he’s paid his £3 to Companies House for EMI’s latest accounts
BE
And they’re not pretty.
NH
i can imagine
NH
this looks awful
BE
EMI, one of the world’s biggest music companies, lost about £1.5bn in the last financial year, I have learned.
NH
jeez
BE
The staggering loss reflects the company’s struggles since it was taken private in 2007 by Guy Hands, the private equity tycoon. Details of the company’s results for the last year are likely to emerge before the end of the week when the accounts for Maltby Capital, EMI’s holding company, are released on the Companies House website.

The loss of about £1.5bn (give or take a bit) has been incurred by a series of non-cash impairment charges, largely relating to the decline in the value of Terra Firma’s investment in the company

NH
ouch, ouch
BE
That’s after we reported this morning that Guy Hands has been passing the begging bowl around.
NH
yes
NH
we too
NH
have looked the accounts
NH
well our media team
NH
and they found
NH
that Hands
NH
will need another £100m
NH
after admitting that EMI’s recorded music business will not be able to meet the terms of loans from Citigroup this yea
NH
so there’s does seem to be a growing possibility
NH
that Citi
NH
could end up owning a large record company
NH
to add to all there other assets
NH
right
NH
here’s a link to this morning’s FT story
NH
Guy Hands will have to ask investors in his Terra Firma private equity group to inject another £100m (€114m) after admitting that EMI’s recorded music business will not be able to meet the terms of loans from Citigroup this year, according to people familiar with its accounts.

The accounts show that EMI Music will fall far short of critical covenants on its debt when these are tested between March and December this year and could suffer further shortfalls next year. The news sets the stage for a dramatic test of investors’ faith in Mr Hands, who paid £4.2bn for EMI just before debt markets collapsed.

NH
Terra Firma needs to raise the new funds to salvage the remainder of its equity in Maltby Capital, its acquisition vehicle for EMI, and avoid losing control of the company to its bank. The injection would give the group a year or more’s grace. The accounts are due to be published this week.

Terra Firma has already written to investors, and will need approval from at least three-quarters of voting investors in its two most recent funds

NH
Now
NH
Citi are Hands are also engaged
NH
in a colourful legal battle
NH
Hands is claiming his is a victim of mis-selling
BE
Essentially, yes.
NH
The Terra Firma founder launched a legal fight with Citi late last year over EMI, alleging the US bank tricked him into buying the music group for £4bn in 2007 by wrongly claiming a rival bidder was still in the running. Mr Hands chose New York as the forum for the lawsuit, but Citi last month challenged this and asked the US judge to send the case to London.
BE
Tricking Hands into parting with the money.
NH
I know
NH
I love that idea
NH
I was tricked into parting with £4.5bn
BE
So anyway, the upshot is that Citi could soon own the Sex Pistols back catalogue.
NH
yes
NH
Pandit will be at the Brit awards
NH
mixing with Pixie Lott
BE
Lovely thought.
BE
Right – that’s enough of that. Where now?
11:50AM
NH
OK
NH
before the rate decision
NH
some small cap stuff
BE
Ok – what do you have?
NH
People asking about Polo Resources
NH
they have put their stake in Extract Resources up for sale
NH
this is an Aussie company
NH
and the stake is worth roughly Polo’s market cap
NH
anyway
NH
rumour is Rio might buy the stake
NH
and then Polo
NH
hopes it will be re-rated
NH
3PO:LSE
NH
that’s supposed to be the ticker
BE
System doesn’t seem to like that ticker.
NH
as for Churchill Mining
NH
rumour in the market
NH
is that there could be some action on the takeover front next week
Churchill Mining (CHL:LSE): Last: 100.00, up 5 (+5.26%), High: 100.00, Low: 95.00, Volume: 32.56k
NH
and on GCM
NH
certainly from the Polo end
NH
they are under the impression that the Bangladesh govt
NH
could move soon on the Phulbari coal pit
GCM Resources PLC (GCM:LSE): Last: 111.50, down 4.5 (-3.88%), High: 115.00, Low: 106.50, Volume: 107.30k
BE
Ok – thanks for that.
11:54AM
BE
Heading up the market slightly ….
BE
Some seriously stale raw
NH
go on
BE
Chloride
NH
Rotten RAW
BE
I prefer to think of it as dry-cured.
NH
ok
BE
Anyway, Seymour Pierce has been revisiting the idea that Emerson might bid.
NH
and…
BE
That’s post Chloride’s trading statement yesterday.
BE
And they think “maybe, but maybe not”
BE
Here’s the gist of it.
BE
Bid only a possibility not a probability
We remain of the view that the bid is only a possibility and not a probability. Our view is that Schneider does not really need Chloride and would face competition issues if it did try and undertake a deal. Eaton remains somewhat constrained by the
performance of its automotive, truck and aerospace businesses and its balance sheet. Emerson is clearly looking forward to a recovery in the network power business but the purchase of a European focused operation such as Chloride does not sit entirely comfortably with its recent purchases.
BE
In the Emerson Q1 results conference call earlier this week management stated that the ‘probable’ M&A spend over the rest of Emerson’s financial year will probably be in the region of $500m to $600m. Although Chloride’s £537m ($860m) EV does seem to rule this out we note that this $500m-$600m figure is a net figure taking into account the disposal proceeds from the sale of LANDesk (approx $150m annual revenues) – a software business that Emerson gained as part of its acquisition of Avocent last year. Chloride investors seeking their next hit of Emerson news don’t have to wait long; the Emerson annual analyst event is on Friday 5 February 2010.
BE
So – more on that tomorrow. Possibly.
NH
OK
Chloride Group (CHLD:LSE): Last: 184.00, down 3.2 (-1.71%), High: 186.40, Low: 182.00, Volume: 313.59k
11:56AM
BE
Nearly midday. Anything else?
NH
well, 4 minutes to the BoE announceent
NH
so I guess
NH
we should have at the market
NH
FTSE 100 down 39 points at 5,213
BE
And sterling?
NH
hang on
NH
so a Euro buys 87p
NH
at the moment
NH
and against the dollar
NH
it is $1.5818
NH
dollar quite strong at the moment
NH
as for gilts
NH
let me just bring up the screen
NH
so the 10-year gilt is
NH
3.87%
NH
while we wait
BE
(My pricing screen’s just crashed. Again. Dear Reuters: YOU ARE RUBBISH.)
NH
some news on a new hedge fund launch
NH
Galileo Capital Management has been nothing if not busy this year. The newly-founded firm, which last month promised as many as four hedge fund launches in the first half, plans to launch a hedge fund focusing on the gay and lesbian consumer products and services sector.
London- and Hong Kong-based Galileo has set up a subsidiary, LGBT Capital, which, in addition to the planned hedge fund, will offer corporate advisory and business development services to LGBT consumer companies. The firm said it has found a need for advisory and capital-raising services in the sector.
NH
LGBT–oriented business owners often have the desire to expand but also frequently lack the expertise, correct capital structure or know–how to access funding” Galileo co-founder Paul Thompson said. “We believe there is a significant opportunity to provide the financial expertise typically found within an investment banking context to LGBT companies, which in turn would allow quality companies to secure funding.”
11:59AM
NH
1 minute to go
NH
tension building
NH
Portugal rallied a bit
NH
down 3.8%
NH
Spain still off 2.4%
BE
So – pause.
NH
RTRS-BANK OF ENGLAND ANNOUNCES NO INCREASE TO 200 BLN STG TARGET FOR QE PURCHASES
NH
12:00 04Feb10 RTRS-BANK OF ENGLAND MAINTAINS BANK RATE AT 0.5 PCT
NH
12:00 04Feb10 RTRS-BOE SAYS WILL MONITOR ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAMME
12:00 04Feb10 RTRS-BOE – CAN MAKE FURTHER PURCHASES SHOULD THE OUTLOOK WARRANT THEM
NH
ok
NH
that’s the most important bit
NH
on hold
NH
but they have more ammo
NH
and will use it
NH
when the sov crisis hits these shores
NH
12:01 04Feb10 RTRS-BOE – MPC NOTED STOCK OF PAST PURCHASES AND LOW INTEREST RATE WOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST ECONOMY
12:01 04Feb10 RTRS-BOE – CREDIT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN RESTRICTIVE
12:01 04Feb10 RTRS-BOE – NEED TO STRENGTHEN PUBLIC, PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCES WILL WEIGH ON SPENDING
BE
Statement here
BE
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £200 billion.

After a substantial fall in output, the United Kingdom economy recorded sluggish growth in the final quarter of 2009. Spending by households appears to have picked up a little, though that may partly reflect temporary factors. The rate of decline in businesses’ investment spending appears to have eased. And the world economy continued to recover, raising the demand for UK exports.

CPI inflation has risen sharply to well above the 2% target, reaching 2.9% in December. That rise was largely accounted for by higher petrol price inflation and the reduction in the main VAT rate a year earlier dropping out of the calculation. Inflation is likely to have risen further in January, reflecting the restoration of the VAT rate to 17.5%. Pay growth has remained subdued.

BE
The considerable stimulus from the easing in monetary policy, the lower level of sterling and the recovery in UK export markets should together support domestic activity. But credit conditions are likely to remain restrictive, while the need to strengthen public and private sector finances will also weigh on spending. On balance, the Committee believes that the prospect is for a gradual recovery in the level of activity. The recession has probably impaired the supply capacity of the economy, but the scale and persistence of the fall in output means that a substantial margin of under-utilised resources is likely to remain for some time to come. That is likely to mean that inflation will fall below the target for a period.

In the light of the Committee’s latest Inflation Report projections and in order to keep inflation on track to meet the 2% inflation target over the medium term, the Committee judged that it was appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% and its stock of purchases of government and corporate debt financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £200 billion. The Committee noted that this stock of past purchases, together with the low level of Bank Rate, would continue to impart a substantial monetary stimulus to the economy for some time to come. The Committee will continue to monitor the appropriate scale of the asset purchase programme and further purchases would be made should the outlook warrant them.

The Committee’s latest inflation and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published at 10.30am on Wednesday 10 February.

The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 17 February.

NH
thanks for that
NH
and the market reaction – down
NH
FTSE 100 now off 45 points
NH
at 5,208
NH
sterling a touch firmer against the euro
NH
and the dollar
NH
RTRS-UK GILT FUTURES TURN NEGATIVE AFTER BOE LEAVES QE PROGRAMME ON HOLD
12:01 04Feb10 RTRS-UK SHORT STERLING INTEREST RATE FUTURES FALL ACROSS STRIP AFTER BOE DECISION
12:02 04Feb10 RTRS-STERLING JUMPS VS DOLLAR, EURO AFTER BOE LEAVES QE ON HOLD, RATES UNCHANGED
NH
Cabin Fever
NH
talking of Man Group
NH
shares weak again this morning
Man Group (EMG:LSE): Last: 229.50, down 7.6 (-3.21%), High: 238.10, Low: 225.30, Volume: 11.44m
NH
there was another fund reading out overnight
NH
not the flagship fund
NH
but somethinig called
NH
Athena Guaranteed Futures
NH
a monthly reading on that one
BE
Actually, think that was late Tuesday.
NH
and it was donw 1.57%
BE
Think Athena’s a better benchmark for underlying performance of the broad spread of funds or somesuch.
BE
Although it’s a long time since I’ve looked at this one, so that may be entirely wrong.
BE
Anyway, in the middle of all that
BE
We had Glaxo results as well.
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:LSE): Last: 1,221, up 4 (+0.33%), High: 1,226, Low: 1,209, Volume: 4.77m
NH
they look alright
BE
Headline looks fine
BE
4Q EPS EX-ITEMS 35.4 PENCE; ANALYST EST. 33.5 PENCE
NH
of course one set of figures that have not gone down well today
NH
are those from Unilver
Unilever (ULVR:LSE): Last: 1,860, down 74 (-3.83%), High: 1,909, Low: 1,845, Volume: 5.89m
NH
on the fact of it
NH
they look good
NH
rising volumes across most regions, esp EM
NH
but the bears reckon
NH
the growth is being achieved due to heavy cost cutting
NH
and as input prices move up
NH
they won’t be able to sustain it
NH
and once again
NH
Unilever
NH
give no guidance
NH
because they don’t do that anymore
NH
here’s a quick bit of comment on that
NH
from Nomura
NH
Focus on volume growth, whilst delivering steady and sustainable year on year improvement in operating margin and cashflow’. There appears to be a subtle change in stance here compared with previous commentary over ‘protecting margins’.

However, we remain concerned through 2010 with the return of input cost inflation (resulting in lower pricing and A&P flex) the group struggles to grow both volumes and margins in the weak consumer/ increasingly competitive environment.

For 2010 we forecast underlying sales growth of +3.1% vs. consensus at +4%. We have margins up +10 bps vs. cons +30 bps (but we see margins down in H2 -30 bps).

Estimates: Given modest Q4 EBIT miss, we expect FY10 market estimates to come in c.1%.

NH
Valuation:

On current estimates Unilever trades on 16.0x 2010E P/E and 11.1x EV/EBIDA. Compares with Danone (REDUCE) on 16.4x and 10.7x and Nestle (BUY) on 13.2x (adjusted for normalised gearing) or 8.2x EV/EBITDA.

12:10PM
NH
OKay
NH
also getting some feedback from the yell conference call
NH
and while the next quarter – to end March
NH
might be rubbish
NH
they reckon
NH
they are signs the next quarter might improve
NH
which probably explains the share price reaction
Yell Group (YELL:LSE): Last: 41.67, up 4.87 (+13.23%), High: 42.24, Low: 38.01, Volume: 26.08m
BE
Of course. Because lots more florists and minicab firms will open in the next three months.
NH
well there’s easter
BE
I can’t see a problem with that argument.
NH
anyway
NH
here’s what Lorna Tilbian
NH
at Numis managed to scrible down at the meeting
BE
Ok
NH
The key focus of Yell’s conference call was on the outlook for fiscal 1Q11 (to June 2010). Some early evidence of increased confidence during sales canvasses means the management anticipates a ‘noticeable’ improvement in the rate of decline, however they wouldn’t quantify this (NSe -8%). The company expects to increase investment in Q4 and into fiscal 2011 so reiterated guidance for ‘at least £600m’ of EBITDA in FY10 and ‘broadly flat’ for FY11. We retain our view that Yell is a high risk investment and our target price of 34p rates the shares a Reduce.
NH
so
NH
lots of florists in the next couple of months
NH
tullip mania
BE
Surely you’re not equating Yell with some kind of bubble?
BE
How absurd.
NH
not all
BE
We should move swiftly on.
12:13PM
NH
Okay
NH
that’s it for today
NH
but before we go
NH
remember that poor at Macquarie
NH
who got caught watching soft portn
BE
Yes – the one who was browsing for snood in the background of a TV broadcast.
BE
What about him?
NH
well apparently he was stitched up
NH
and
NH
a campaign has been launched to save hi,
NH
David Kiely, the Macquarie Bank client investment manager who has become the latest internet sensation after being caught live on TV oggling semi-nude pics of Australian supermodel Miranda Kerr, is said to be cooling his heels at home, waiting for his employer to work out what to do with him.
NH
And rumours abound that Kiely may actually have been set up by another staff member, who sent him an e-mail with the pics attached, knowing that Kiely would open them in full view of the TV cameras. Australia’s Channel 10 news has reported that, after Kiely viewed the final image e-mailed to him, he was instructed (via a message at the foot of the e-mail) to ‘Turn around now’.
NH
Whether set up or not, Kiely was really only guilty of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. There but for the Grace of God……….

NH
Anyway, we are now officially starting a campaign to get the client investment manager back to work, because:

1. He seems like a nice bloke

2. The pics weren’t hardcore

3. He has suffered enough

4. There’s just too much political correctness in this world anyway

So, please help David Kiely keep his job by sending an e-mail of support to mediaquery@macquarie.com (Yes, let’s let the press guys know that we love David). Please put the narrative ‘Don’t fire David Kiely’ in the subject bar.

NH
thought
NH
we would pass that on
12:15PM
NH
Sorry Ptolemy
NH
some comment on Shell and Toyota
NH
coming right up
BE
Ok – here’s Collins Stewart on RDS
BE
We remain positive despite weak 4Q results
Despite weak 4Q results, we still think 2010 will mark an inflection point for Shell,
with production flat after years of decline, further cost reduction of at least $1bn
and the prospect of a strong free cash turnaround to come in 2011-12. Shell
remains our top supermajor pick, and we reiterate our Buy and 2150p/sh TP.
4Q results below already-weak expectations
Shell’s 4Q adjusted income of $2.8bn was slightly below an already-weak
company consensus
of $2.9bn. Downstream results were particularly weak (as
for many peers) with an adjusted loss of $0.4bn vs consensus of around
breakeven (see fig.1). Within this total, refining made a loss of $0.9bn vs -$0.5bn
in 3Q, while the contribution from marketing fell to only y$0.3bn vs $1bn in 3Q
and chemicals was fairly flat at $0.2bn. E&P results were broadly in line. Belowthe-
line, results were flattered by a $0.5bn gain at the corporate level.
BE
Volumes to be fairly flat in 2010 before rising in 2011-12
E&P volumes were down 2% in 4Q and 3% for the year. Assuming similar
conditions to 2009, Shell expects 2010 volumes to be broadly flat vs 2009, and
we would expect negative PSC effects to broadly offset lower OPEC quota
impact. We think this would mark an inflection point for volumes, which have
fallen at an average rate of 3.5%pa since 2004. With a series of major project
startups in 2010, we see volume growth of around 3% in 2011 and 4-5% in 2012.
Cash generation still healthy
We estimate Shell’s underlying cash flow at $24bn for the year, giving a
cash
yield of around 14% vs 16% for BP. Shell’s free cash flow was strongly negative
as a result of peak capex levels, but nevertheless YE balance sheet gearing
came in below guidance at 15.5%. Shell has confirmed FY10 spending of around
$28bn, a 10% fall vs FY09. We continue to see a strong turnaround in free cash
flow in Shell on a 2-3 year view, with 2012E FCF after dividends of +$6-7bn.
BE
’10 EPS estimate reduced; minimal long term changes
We have reduced our FY10 EPS forecast by 6% (see figs. 2 and 3) to reflect
persistent downstream weakness. However, we expect marketing results to
improve markedly in 1Q, returning the division to profit. Long term changes to
our forecasts are minimal (-1% for 2012E) and our base SoP is broadly
unchanged at £22.8/sh, 31% above the current aggregate share price.
BE
And here’s UBS
BE
Miss at net income with weak operational earnings
Royal Dutch Shell reported clean 4Q net income of $2,774m which missed
consensus by 3% but beat UBS forecast of $2,694m by 3%. Production was down
2% y/y to 3,331kboe/d against our expectation of 3,402kboe/d. Dividend was
maintained at $0.42/share, up 5% y/y, down 4% y/y in GBP terms.
Downstream particularly poor
Both upstream and downstream numbers were weak. Upstream missed consensus
by 5% with production 1% below consensus. The downstream was particularly
poor at -$427m, versus consensus of -$15m and our forecast at -$244m. This
reflected weaker refining margins, lower intake volumes and weaker marketing
earnings, which were $282m, against a usual minimum of $800m. This weakness
in non-refining downstream earnings was also notable in BP’s results. Corporate
earnings provided a helpful impact on numbers at $439m against $55m consensus.
BE
Gearing and capex below expectations
Gearing (net debt: capital) was 15.5% vs. our 19% forecast. Capex was $7.5bn,
below our forecast of $10bn and disposal proceeds were higher. Operating
cashflow was essentially in-line. Shell’s strategy presentation takes place on March
16 and a route map towards recovery will be high on the market’s agenda.
Valuation: Neutral, 2000p price target
Our target is set at 2011E EV/DACF of 5.8x, in line with sector average. This
equates to 2011E PE of 9.3x, a 3% discount to the sector average.
BE
Anything to say about Toyota, Neil?
NH
Ok
NH
from Citi
NH
Key Takeaways from Toyota Recall and Potential Implications
Conference Call
 What’s new — We hosted a conference call on 4 Feb. morning Hong Kong time
with U.S. autos analyst Itay Michaeli, Japan autos analyst Jia Zhu and Korea autos
analyst Ethan Kim to discuss Toyota’s recall and potential implications
NH
Magna, Lear and Ford could benefit — Toyota’s recall reduced Jan. 10 U.S. light
vehicle sales seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 10.8mn by an estimated
0.2mn. While the competition has not claimed to gain shares from Toyota yet,
Toyota’s recall remains an ongoing development driven by media coverage and
government response. Auto suppliers who have relatively less customer exposure
to Toyota, such as Magna and Lear, could benefit. Ford is also a potential
beneficiary.
NH
Prefer Honda and Nissan to Toyota — Toyota’s recalls began with the floor mat
problem in Nov. 09 and escalated with the accelerator pedal problem on 21 Jan.
On 3 Feb. a new issue regarding the Prius hybrid’s brakes also emerged. Potential
impacts from Toyota’s recalls include 1) sales volume decline, 2) sales incentive
increase, 3) residual value decline and 4) lawsuit provision and expense increase.
We estimate Toyota and Lexus combined U.S. market share could decline to
15.0% in ’10 from 17.0% in ’09. While recall related expenses are temporary, the
potential loss of confidence in Toyota’s quality and hence impact on residual value
could be more lasting. The recall problem spreading to the Prius hybrid, which is
Toyota’s next core strategy vehicle, is also worrisome. We prefer Honda and
Nissan to Toyota given Honda and Nissan’s relatively stronger earnings
momentum.
NH
Hyundai could benefit — We forecast Hyundai’s U.S. market share to expand to
4.7% in ’10 from 4.2% in 09 driven by key new model launches (i.e. Sonata and
Tucson SUV) and lack of new competitor volume model launches. We believe
Toyota’s recall could provide U.S. market share upside to Hyundai driven by 1)
narrowing brand perception gap versus Toyota and 2) narrowing residual value
gap versus Toyota. Link to Korea autos Jan
BE
“worrisome”?
NH
and this
NH
also from Citi
NH
Toyota Motor (7203.T; ¥3,400; 1M)announced a fix for recalled accelerator pedals
manufactured by US company CTS (due to sticking due to condensation) on 2/2, but
the next day a new issue with Prius brakes emerged. Furthermore, the US Department
of Transportation indicated it thinks electronic throttle control systems (ETCS) could
have caused runaway Lexus vehicles, so Toyota’s recall problems may not be over yet.
The recall and Toyota’s inability to come up with a strategy has hurt consumer trust.
Had it been handled smoothly it could have been a temporary glitch, but it has become
complicated, with growing concerns about protracted effects, including lower
shipments (US sales fell 16% in January, making Toyota the only loser as the market
grew 6%), reduced resale value due to falling used car prices, deterioration in sales
finance earnings, higher financing costs, and the risk of class action suits.
NH
If we assume US shipments fall 270,000 units (1.77mn units in 2009; 17% market
share) to 1.5mn units in 2010 (13% market share) and a unit price of ¥2mn, sales
would drop ¥540bn, and assuming marginal profit of 30%, OP would decline ¥162bn.
With increased incentives to offset slumping sales and weakened sales finance
earnings, the recall could have a negative impact over ¥200bn. Combined with effects
in Europe and other regions, we think the negative impact could total roughly ¥300bn.
For Toyota, which was just beginning to emerge from losses, sluggish top-line growth
will be the largest negative factor of all.
It is no exaggeration to say Toyota’s earnings reflect the high resale value of its
vehicles, due to high quality; a collapse in this business model would render Toyota an
ordinary car maker, and there would be no reason for consumers to choose Toyota
vehicles. The crisis is spreading to hybrids, the strategy vehicles set to become the next
core business, as well as the Lexus brand.
Despite Toyota’s Customer First and local production management philosophies,
questions are being asked about the leadership of President Akio Toyoda, who failed to
address the stock market and announce a strategy himself. There have been moves to
remove Toyota from portfolios, a trend that we think is likely to continue. Given that
Honda has announced strong results, we expect the shift in investment from Toyota to
Honda, which has confirmed an earnings recovery, to accelerate.
Toyota’s results briefing call scheduled for 2/4 (Thursday) was changed to a results
briefing meeting attended by the CFO at the last minute; whether the company will be
able to provide an explanation of the root cause of the recall and a response that
satisfies investors will be crucial. If it fails to do this, we think the shares could dip
below ¥3,000.
NH
OK
NH
that’s it
NH
we must go
BE
Right. Bored with sticky accelerator pedals now.
NH
the Lunch Wrap needs to go
NH
thanks for logging in
BE
And thanks for your erudite comments, as always.
NH
yes
NH
see you all tomorrow
NH
and great Toyota gags
BE
Good afternoon.
NH
cya
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