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Markets Live transcript 1 Feb 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:21 on 1 Feb 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
Good morning
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily marekts chat
NH
Bryce is here
BE
Hello.
NH
as is our specialist guest
NH
who is lurking
NH
not sure he will come on ML though
NH
we shall have to see
NH
Okay
NH
shall we get on with things
BE
Sure – where do we want to start?
NH
Wider market
11:05AM
NH
So, very strong GDP figures
NH
but Wall Street’s closes lower
NH
Dow off 50 points
NH
so that means we are down again
NH
right?
BE
Actually, no
BE
We’re up a tad now
BE
Ahead 11.9 at 5200 dead
NH
Okay
NH
odd
NH
I thought we would encounter more selling
NH
and have to don the tin hat
BE
Note also the Obama flashes hitting the tape
NH
ah yes
NH
let’s have a look
BE
*OBAMA ’10 DEFICIT FORECAST RISES 10% TO $1.56 TRILLION
BE
*OBAMA ’10 DEFICIT FORECAST RISES 10% TO $1.56 TRILLION
BE
*OBAMA SENDS CONGRESS $3.83 TRILLION FISCAL 2011 BUDGET
BE
*BUDGET SHOWS DEFICIT IS 10.6% OF GDP IN 2010, 8.3% IN ’11
BE
Hang on – what’s this about the Nasa moon base?
BE
11:00 01Feb10 RTRS-WHITE HOUSE SAYS PROPOSING TO CANCEL NASA “CONSTELLATION” PROGRAM TO RETURN TO THE MOON
NH
Oh no
NH
no Nasa moon base
BE
And, if Mars attacks, what are we suppossed to do now?
NH
RTRS-WHITE HOUSE: BUDGET INCLUDES FUNDING TO INCREASE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WITH FEDERAL AIR MARSHALS
NH
WHITE HOUSE: BUDGET INCLUDES MORE THAN $250 MLN FOR PURCHASE OF THOMSON, ILLINOIS PRISON MEANT TO HOUSE GUANTANAMO PRISONERS
NH
WHITE HOUSE: BUDGET INCLUDES $100 BLN FOR JOB-CREATING MEASURES IN 2010, INCLUDING SMALL BUSINESS TAX CUTS
NH
WHITE HOUSE: BUDGET INCLUDES $734 MILLION TO DEPLOY UP TO 1,000 NEW ADVANCED IMAGING TECHNOLOGY SCREENING MACHINES AT AIRPORTS
NH
WHITE HOUSE PROJECTS RAISING $678 BLN OVER 10 YEARS BY ALLOWING EXPIRATION OF 2001, 2003 TAX CUTS FOR WEALTHY
BE
All looks pretty defence / terror friendly
BE
If you can say such a thing.
NH
RTRS-WHITE HOUSE: BUDGET INCLUDES $6 BILLION FOR CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
NH
RTRS-WHITE HOUSE SAYS TO SAVE $40 BILLION OVER 10 YEARS BY ELIMINATING SUBSIDIES FOR OIL, GAS, COAL COMPANIES
BE
Any movement in Smiths Group, BAE Systems, Cobham etc?
NH
that’s about all the flashes I have
NH
hang on
Smiths Group (SMIN:LSE): Last: 1,014, up 14 (+1.40%), High: 1,016, Low: 996.00, Volume: 262.83k
NH
they make the airport scanners
NH
as for Cobham
NH
hang on
Cobham (COB:LSE): Last: 233.30, up 0.6 (+0.26%), High: 234.50, Low: 232.40, Volume: 472.86k
NH
Okay
NH
let’s head to the market
NH
and see what’s moving today
BE
Yup.
11:11AM
BE
Well, we’re going to have to kick off with the utilities.
NH
Right
NH
is this on the back of Northumbrian Waters bid story?
BE
Looks that way, yes.
NH
story is
NH
According to the Sunday Times Ontario Teachers, who own 27% of Northumbrian Water have been sounding out other partners and the investment banks to see if they can raise enough capital to take out the other shareholders.
NH
and the shares moved up 15% first off
NH
now up 10%
NH
but there is as yet no statement
Northumbrian Water Group (NWG:LSE): Last: 284.30, up 25.7 (+9.94%), High: 292.30, Low: 280.00, Volume: 2.43m
BE
STILL no RNS? Hm.
NH
well
NH
the company were supposed to issue a IMS this morning
NH
that hasn’t happened yet
NH
we are hearing that is because
NH
they NWG are
trying to update the info on an energy contract that needs to
be in the statement.
NH
from what we are hearing
NH
the company won’t be saying anything about the bid
BE
And we’d have to assume the Takeover Panel would be fine with that approach then?
NH
whether the Canadian’s will have to say something that is a different matter
NH
anyway
NH
the price quoted by the Sunday Times
NH
is around a 20% premium to RAV
NH
ie 325p a share
NH
which seems to be pretty punchy
BE
It’s certainly lit a fire under the rest of the sector.
Severn Trent (SVT:LSE): Last: 1,167, up 42 (+3.73%), High: 1,181, Low: 1,136, Volume: 2.07m
Pennon Group (PNN:LSE): Last: 540.00, up 25.5 (+4.96%), High: 544.50, Low: 522.00, Volume: 1.13m
BE
And United Utilities, which never autoquotes properly, is up 15p at 555p
NH
hmmm
NH
I think this might play out like at International Power
NH
we will finally get a statement at 3.00pm
NH
confirmed something might be going on
BE
Or that the deal’s off before it was officially on?
NH
let’s hope it is not one of those again
NH
anyway
NH
we have some comment
NH
and interesting time for the utilities
NH
the Ofwat pricing review is out of the way
NH
and no one is having a cash call on the back of it
NH
defensive stocks coming back into fashio
NH
and now we have some M&A
NH
or potential M&A
NH
right
NH
we have some comment
NH
here’s Merrill
NH
The Sunday Times revisited the idea that Ontario Teachers (c27% shareholder) is
considering a bid for Northumbrian Water valuing the equity at £1.7bn (ie c325p
/share); such speculative stories appear at least twice a year.
The shares closed at 259p on Friday – down 12p or 4% on the week, so 325p
would imply 25% upside.
An offer valuing the equity at £1.7bn would imply an exit EV of £4bn, equivalent to
c11.5x 2010/11E EBITDA; in our view, this is outwith financing parameters unless
the acquirer is prepared to accept sub-normal returns. Northumbrian Water’s IMS,
expected today morning, has not been published yet but there could be an update
later in the day in our view.
NH
and Credit Suisse
NH
*The Times reported over the weekend that Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPPB) are preparing a £1.7bn bid for NWG and have been in discussions with banks and other funds in order to put together a debt package.

*The Canadian pension fund already owns 27% of the company, and, according to the article, has ‘long harboured a desire to take it private’. The article also referred to a source that noted that the offer would be a ‘low-premium’ due to the existing shareholding position, but also that an offer would need to be at least 25% more than Friday’s close in order to get shareholder approval. This suggests a price of c323p/share, or a c15.5% premium to FY Mar 11E RAB

NH
*Such speculation is not new given the existing holding in NWG held by Ontario. We highlight 3 points:

(1) OTPPB previously had a restriction written into their by laws meaning they could only own up to 30% of the voting rights of an entity, clearly not far above their current 27% holding. Whilst the use of preference and non-voting shares could help the fund potentially avoid such restrictions, we believe it makes an outright solo buyout less-likely. Ontario acquired 25% of NWG from Suez in 2005, representing a 2% premium to RAB at April 1st 2005.

NH
2) Given The Times article referred to ‘other funds including Borealis…to be a partner on the deal’, we think this could imply that a potential buyout may still proceed including OTPPB, but without them having to break their 30% restriction.
NH
interesting stuff on the restrictions there
NH
(3) NWG is already fairly highly levered on a group basis, at c67% on a group net debt:RAB level. We believe this could mean there is less tax-shield and other regulatory benefits ‘up for grabs’ from OTPPB’s viewpoint. Furthermore, we would note that several highly levered (c90%) water company structures got into trouble during 2009 as a result of the low and volatile inflation levels. We believe not only would future investors in such structures to be more cautious with regards to such leverage and exposure to volatile inflation, but we also lack evidence so far that banks would be willing to lend into structures with such high leverage in a post credit-crunch environment.
NH

*Valuation: NWG is trading on a c5% premium to FY Mar 11E RAB, whilst the rest of the UK Water sector trades on an average of a 1% premium. This premium was one of the primary reasons behind our Underperform recommendation on the stock.

*Whilst this speculation is not new, we think it will be positive for the NWG share price this morning and support the rest of the sub-sector.

BE
Merrill’s line about it being “outwith financing parameters unless the acquirer is prepared to accept sub-normal returns” is interesting too.
BE
UBS agrees that the price looks a little curious.
BE
Here’s their valuation work on the sector.
BE
Times report a bid is being prepared for Northumbrian
The Times reports that pension fund Ontario Teachers Pension Plan has been
sounding out banks to put together a debt package to takeover Northumbrian. It is
thought that it has approached other funds including Borealis to partner a deal. The
Canadian fund is yet to make a bid. Ontario Teachers Pension Plan already owns
27% of NWG. A takeover value of GBP1.7bn (or 13% premium to RAB) has been
put out in the press, but this seems a little arbitrary.
BE
Bodes well for the UK water sector
As of Friday, United Utilities (UU) trades at a 0.8% premium to RAB, Severn
Trent (SVT) on 2.3%, Pennon (PNN) 0.3% and Northumbrian (NWG) 1.6%. Our
SOTP-based price targets indicate UU has 13% total return, SVT 8.1%, PNN 6.1%
and NWG 5.0%. At a 10% premium to RAB, which we see as a plausible takeover
price, total return moves to 26% for UU, 25% for SVT, 16% for PNN and 21% for
NWG.
BE
Remain positive on the space
As we have mentioned since November that we believe the water sector looks
increasingly attractive: (1) Good income versus government bonds; (2) the sector’s
positive gearing to rising inflation; (3) the potential for M&A. EDF’s distribution
sale offers a good data point in Q1. This should become an increasing trend and
should not be underestimated.
NH
Right.
NH
so everyone seems to be a bit cautious on this story
BE
Indeed.
11:19AM
NH
Thanks for that
NH
now one of the ROTR
NH
was asking for some technical stuff
NH
with the S&P below a key level
NH
and we can help
BE
Ah good. More chartism.
NH
afraid so
NH
this is from Olivetree
NH
Most of the technical strands to our bull case were dismantled last week. We are forced to expect a retracement to 1010/15 S&P.
BE
And that’s against 1073 on the S&P at the moment.
NH
and look at this
NH
China failed to hold 200 day MAV,
Crude trading below 200 day MAV,
Tech underperforming,
DXY seeing continued strength.
NH
We are forced to expect a retracement to 1010/15 S&P.
NH
At present more cash is actually leaving equity funds to go to bond and/or commodity funds. For the week ended Jan 27th equity funds had $8.3bln of redemptions and we also saw the first redemptions from EMEA funds in the last 12 weeks. Outflows from TECH has been the highest since Q3 06′.
NH
The potential for BRIC rate rises appears central to the nervousness. What has not changed in our view is the strong valuation case for equities with Stox 600 on a p/e trend earnings basis still at trough levels.

Many investors we spoke with last week raised real concern towards the possibility of a sovereign debt crises not just in Greece or Spain but in the UK or US. We see this as highly unlikely but we should be particularly watchful of bid to cover ratios on UST auctions and demand from foreigners.

We think markets, while facing short term pressures, will trend higher over coming months and any set back will be relatively limited. We recommend buying Defensives, large cap and stocks with strong long term growth outlook

BE
Right then.
NH
(Monty – how does this apply to Arriva – why have they not been suspended?)
BE
No point in going through my thoughts once more on horoscopeism when it comes to stock indices.
NH
fair enough
NH
but a lot of big levels broke
NH
(Taxloss – AMG??? who are they?)
BE
Personally, I think we should probably head towards something a little more raw.
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
before we do
NH
that Artemis deal referred to by the ROTR
NH
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE: AMG) and the management team of Artemis Investment Management Ltd (“Artemis”) have reached a definitive agreement to purchase 100% of the equity of Artemis from Fortis Bank S.A./N.V., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas Group (EPA: BNP).

Following the closing of the transaction, AMG will own a majority equity interest in Artemis, with Artemis’ management team also acquiring a substantial equity ownership and continuing to direct the day-to-day operations of the firm.

Founded in 1997, Artemis is a leading United Kingdom fund manager, specializing in active investment management for retail and institutional investors in the UK, as well as Europe and the Middle East. With offices in London and Edinburgh, Artemis manages approximately UK£10 billion (US$16 billion) in assets across a range of mutual funds and segregated institutional accounts. The investment team at Artemis comprises 17 experienced fund managers, including Adrian Frost, one of the most respected investment managers in the UK, and a range of premier investment managers in a variety of investment disciplines. As of December 31, 2009, more than 90% of the firm’s retail products have generated first quartile performance since their respective launch dates. Morningstar UK named Artemis its Best Smaller Equity Fund House in 2008, and several of its funds have been recognized by Lipper UK for the strength of their long-term performance.

BE
Hm. Interesting.
NH
£10bn under management
NH
what did it go for?
NH
can’t find a figure
NH
anywhere
NH
that brings us nicely on to a bit of RAW
NH
Man Group
Man Group (EMG:LSE): Last: 239.50, up 2.5 (+1.05%), High: 243.10, Low: 234.10, Volume: 9.41m
NH
Now,
NH
this is pretty RAW
NH
still alive RAW
NH
but hey ho
NH
SPECULATION THAT EMG ARE STALKING MARSHAL WACE…
BE
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NH
Could this be the recovery trade that turns around EMG’s dwindling fees…
BE
That’s a bit extreme.
NH
indeed
NH
here’s a bit more on Man
NH
lots of people chatting about it today
NH
CHECK OUT THE OVERSOLD RSI IN EMG, HAVENT EVER SEEN THEM THIS
FAR BELOW THE LOWER LINES, STORY DOING THE ROUNDS THIS MORN
THAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT MARSHALL WACE SHOULD BE TAKEN WELL
BE
Well …. dangerously near to chartism again, that
NH
indeed
NH
but the idea of Man buying Marshall Wace
NH
what about that
BE
Well, when a stock’s trading at a divi yield of >11% it’s telling you something’s up.
NH
true
BE
But does that mean they’re about to spend their money on a deal? Dunno.
BE
Is there any indication Paul Marshall would be ready to sell?
NH
Not that I now of
BE
Would he need the cash to fund the Lib Dem’s push for a hung parliament?
NH
EmoticonEmoticonEmoticonEmoticon
NH
or to help by Man Utd
NH
one of the MW founders is a big Red Fan
NH
and on that subject
NH
I was told today
NH
that the financing is available for a bid
NH
trouble is no one knows what the Glazer family would want for the club
NH
and I have no idea?
NH
does anyone else?
BE
Anyway, Marshall Wace is largely another black box trading system, isn’t it? TOPS I think it’s called.
NH
yes. that’s the one where brokers tips are fed in
NH
and they give commision to the one with the best record
BE
And, since we’re talking about black boxes, there was an interesting note out of Shore Capital late on Friday looking at why Man’s AHL fund has been stinking the place out.
NH
Oh yes
NH
this was quite interesting
NH
it’s up in the Long Room
NH
if you want to take a look
BE
Phil Dobbin’s the analyst.
NH
what’s Dobby got to say
BE
It’s all about the subduing effects of QE, basically.
BE
Here’s a flavour.
BE
We visited the product specialist at AHL yesterday to try and understand more about the recent poor
performance figures that have resulted in a drawdown for 2009 of c18%. This performance has become
an area of intense focus for investors in Man Group given that it accounts for more than 50% of group
management fees. The share price reacted very poorly to both the recent Q3 update and the weekly
publication of AHL figures that saw a weekly drawdown of c3.57%. The last two sets of weekly
performance figures from AHL have shown an NAV fall of some 5% which reduces earning by some
c2.5% and yet the share price has fallen some 20%. The conclusion one can draw from the share price
reaction is that there are growing concerns that AHL is broken, hence our discussion with the group.
BE
The first thing to state in favour of AHL is that it has consistently told investors in AHL that it will
not always make a positive return and although 2009 was a bad year it fell within their return
distribution.
• Secondly, no changes are planned although, as we might expect, the company continues to
invest in its research pipeline.
• Finally can 2009 performance be explained and the answer is yes – quantitative easing and
government intervention dented performance in 2009, both of which are likely to cease when
economies start to function better.
NH
(one more bit Taxloss – in the airline sector though)
BE
Therefore, what can we expect for AHL inflows? New to AHL investor will need to see some positive
performance before committing funds. Existing investors however, particularly institutional users of
managed futures are still willing to increase funds on a mean reversion basis. It seems that some
investors do buy into AHL on the expectation that the formation of consensus is mean reverting. We
concluded that there is little evidence that AHL is broken nor do we detect any palpable sense of panic
from the AHL managers. There can be no guarantees that AHL’s negative performance will end tomorrow
but we do detect a belief from AHL that the investment environment will better suit its clean, clear
managed futures model in 2010 than it did in 2009. Man Group, having fallen to 237.5p, now trades at
14.9x our 2010F earning falling to 11.6x our 2011 estimated earnings – we view the recent falls as an
excellent buying opportunity and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
BE
And, perhaps reflecting that, Man’s having a bit of a rally this morning
Man Group (EMG:LSE): Last: 240.00, up 3 (+1.27%), High: 243.10, Low: 234.10, Volume: 9.50m
NH
ta for that
NH
still in the fund management space
NH
Schroders the biggest FTSE 100 faller this morning
Schroders (SDR:LSE): Last: 1,232, down 14 (-1.12%), High: 1,237, Low: 1,219, Volume: 315.34k
NH
and that’s on a Credit Suisse downgrade
NH
which I have the details of
NH
SCHRODERS (SDR.L, 1246.00p, NEUTRAL [V], TP 1360.00p, MARKET WEIGHT) Rupak Ghose – CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OUTPERFORM; TP TO £13.60 VS £14.15 – We believe moderating flows will cap any further positive earnings revisions for Schroders this year. We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) & our TP to £13.6 (from £14.15) based on our reduced earnings forecasts (using a target P/E of 15x 2010E EPS ex cash). We are reducing our 09E & 10E EPS ests by 7% & 4.2% to 49.8p & 79.4p. Our EPS downgrades are owing to a combination of lower assumptions on net flows & margins & higher costs.

NH
Not going to the put the rest up
NH
coz it’s a little dull
11:33AM
NH
Right
NH
another bit of RAW
NH
Bryce, did you see the Winterflood story over the weekend?
BE
Indeed I did.
BE
£500m bid from Nomura
NH
hmm
NH
did make me chuckle
NH
the idea of Wins boys
NH
being under Japanese ownership
NH
in fact
NH
being controlled by a big IB
NH
but
NH
it can’t be dimissed
NH
the parent Close Brothers has a new man in charge
NH
Prebon Prebonson
NH
or something odd like that
NH
and Close are a bit better on the story
NH
Damn
NH
auto quote does not work on this one either
NH
Close are up 17.5p at 710p
BE
For the avoidance of doubt, the name’s Prebensen. Preben Prebensen.
NH
OK
NH
E instead of the O
NH
weird name though
NH
nationality?
BE
I’m imagining it’ll be the same nationality as Magnus Mangnusson.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
Which is … er … Icelandic?
NH
I’ve start so I’ll finish
NH
selling Wins to Nomura
NH
anyway
NH
do we have any comment on this?
BE
There was a line or two out of Numis
NH
OK
NH
does £500m seem reasonable
NH
for what is an amazing frachise
NH
a monopoly some might say
NH
that could not be replaced?
BE
They seem to think so
BE
There was an article in this weekend’s Financial Mail, suggesting Nomura may be
considering a £500m takeover bid for Winterflood (WINS). In our view, if true, this
price would seem attractive: we value the Securities division as a whole (of which
WINS is the predominant component) at c.£250m within our £1,369m/950p target
price, reflecting the high earnings volatility and low visibility (and therefore risk) of
this division historically vs. other parts of the group.
BE
Furthermore, other pure-play broking businesses such as ICAP and Tullett, trade on
c.11x / c.7x earnings and c.1.6x / c.0.75x revenue respectively. Whilst these brokers
are not directly comparable (as they trade institutional rather than retail flows) and
there are no comparable quoted names in the UK, Interactive Brokers (IBKR US) in
the US trades on 14x / 0.5x respectively. By comparison, in FY Jul-2009 (a year of
exceptional profitability and revenue following the high market volatility), WINS
generated £131m revenue / £47m PBT / £34m PAT, implying the bid would be worth
c.15x earnings or 3.8x revenue.
BE
Whilst Close Brothers has traditionally resisted takeovers citing the benefits of
being a diversified financials conglomerate, this stance changed last year following
the appointment of the new CEO, notably selling the Corporate Finance division (for
c.1.2x-1.9x 08A/09A revenue) within a few months of joining. By coincidence, there
is a pre-scheduled analyst/investor event regarding the securities division due to be
held today at 4pm (see closebrothers.co.uk/presentationsandwebcasts.aspx for dial
in and venue details), where it is possible further colour may emerge depending on
what management say / don’t say.
BE
We continue to believe the company is well diversified, soundly funded, has good
liquidity, a strong balance sheet and pays a safe c.5.5% dividend. We think each of
the divisions are strategically well placed from lower competition in their niche
products as both larger and smaller peers scale back and for division specific
opportunities. On c.1.6x NTA, we think it remains too cheap. Given our ROE outlook
of low to mid teens percent (20 year historical average 16.6%) and assuming a COE
of c.10%, we think a c.2.2x multiplier is more appropriate, which forms the main
basis of our 950p target price.
BE
Close Brothers remains for us a core BUY recommendation predicated on an
inexpensive valuation and the growth opportunities in the short to medium term
assuming the business continues to operate “as-is”. If a bid for WINS in the price
range mentioned materializes, clearly this would imply more upside to our target
price and would reinforce an already strong investment case on valuation grounds.
Given the group already has significant surplus capital, it is quite possible that
much of the proceeds (if realised) would be paid to shareholders in the form of a
special dividend.
NH
thanks for that
NH
of course
NH
Close did get a bid a while ago
NH
from Cenkos
NH
I think he was offering around 950p a share
NH
and still looks like a break up candidate
BE
Hm. But Nomura?
NH
there might be a culture clash
BE
Do they have a corporate song?
BE
That’d be good at 6am
NH
yes
BE
when the bacon sandwiches are getting delivered
11:40AM
NH
Right
NH
interesting story on Financial News
NH
Investment bankers in the US have begun using equity derivatives to convert restricted shares paid as bonuses into cash, side-stepping new guidelines on remuneration which were designed to prevent bankers cashing out for at least three years, according to a headhunter.
BE
Well, that’s a surprise.
NH
what IBankers find a loop hole for something
NH
who would have thought
BE
Indeed. People paid to shove money around tend to be quite adept at shoving money around.
BE
Stunning.
11:42AM
NH
Right some more RAW
NH
in the airlines sector
NH
SAS SS – AIR FRANCE STALKING…
NH
SAS very short haul, AF is a monolith, would beging to make sense & certainly SAS SS has broken its downtrend…
NH
Of course
NH
the airline sector in demand this morning
NH
good figs from Ryanair
NH
BA up again
NH
on the AA alliance story
NH
and then
NH
there is a big note out from Goldman
NH
and they like airlines too
BE
Ryanair’s up 6% at e3.5 at the moment.
BE
Should we start with a bit of comment on that one?
NH
yes
NH
I didn’t have time to go through the full statement
NH
but it looked pretty impressive
BE
Cazenove agrees.
BE
Overall results were ahead of our own, and we believe market, expectations. This was largely driven by a slightly better
than expected revenue performance as reported costs were in line with our expectations.
Q3 passenger revenue was flat as a 14% increase in passenger numbers was offset by an average fare decline of 12%.
This yield decline was, however better than our forecast of 22%. On the other hand ancillary revenue par passenger fell
by 11% against our predictions of a 5% increase.
BE
Unit costs excluding fuel fell by 4% as expected, despite a 3% increase in average sector length. In particular, airport and
handling costs fell by 11% on a per passenger basis, slightly better than the 10% reduction in Q2 FY2010. Staff costs
per passenger fell by 4%.
Fuel costs fell by 37% to €207m due to the benefit of lower oil prices. The company has now hedged out to FY 2011
with 90% of the first three quarters and 25% of Q4 now hedged at $720 per tonne.
Full year profit target has been increased to €275m from the previous range of €200m to €300m.
Net debt at the period end was €200.8m and the group had gross cash on the balance sheet of €2.44bn.
BE
The better than expected results, coupled with the upward revision to guidance should provide a boost to sentiment and
sustain relative share price performance in our view.
We expect Reuters consensus net profit forecasts for the full year to increase by about 10% from €251m to €275m and
our own forecasts are likely to follow suit.
Based on a provisionally revised EPS forecast of about €0.19 the stock trades on a FY2010E PER of 17.6x falling to
about 13x for FY2011. This is in our view an attractive valuation in view of the potential for further EPS growth and the
scope for substantial cash generation in the coming years.
NH
thanks for that
NH
as BA
NH
well
NH
their good run continues
British Airways (BAY:LSE): Last: 212.80, up 6.6 (+3.20%), High: 213.80, Low: 205.00, Volume: 5.69m
NH
now according to the FT today
NH
the proposed Trans-Atlantic joint venture between BA, American Airlines and Iberia has moved closer to receiving approval from the European Commission
NH
now
NH
according to Merrill getting this JV done
NH
would be worth 52p on the share price
NH
which sounds quite high
BE
Sounds quite punchy.
NH
here’s their bit of comment
NH
According to the Financial Times, the proposed Trans-Atlantic joint venture
between BA, American Airlines and Iberia has moved closer to receiving approval from the European Commission. Both BA and the European Commission have confirmed that they have starting consulting about concessions, in order to receive approval. We believe concessions will involve giving up some slots at London Heathrow.
Anti-trust immunity/regulatory approval would allow BA/AA/Iberia to integrate their trans-Atlantic services and to operate as a single company. This would include joint capacity plans, network/scheduling, pricing, sales & marketing. The combined entity would have a higher market share and broader network and would create value, in our view. We value the potential benefits from the deal at 52p and our 290p price objective includes a 50% chance of approval. If regulatory approval is received, we will need to adjust our valuation to reflect this and potential slot penalties.
We estimate BA trades on a FY03/11E EV/IC multiple of 0.30x, a 25% discount to the 5yr average multiple
NH
But i guess
NH
it is the Americans who will have the final say on this
BE
(EU has now confirmed that FT story, by the way.)
BE
The European Commission can confirm that it is assessing the effectiveness of proposed commitments received from British Airways, American Airlines and Iberia to alleviate the Commission’s concerns regarding potential anticompetitive agreements under Article 101 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU, formerly Article 81 EC Treaty). The agreements relate to passenger transport on certain long-haul routes. As part of this assessment process, and before deciding whether the proposed commitments will be suitable to remedy the Commission’s concerns and for a public market test, the Commission is sending the proposed commitments first to a number of key market players for comments.
NH
and of course
NH
there is still a large bear position in BA
BE
You got the exact data to hand?
NH
yes
NH
from DataExplorers
NH
here’s you
NH
British Airways Plc. [BAY], due to announce earnings at the end of the week,
is shadowed by its troubles with its cabin crew union, UNITE, as they head
to the High Court. In other news, The Financial Times and Reuters have both
reported that the planned alliance between British Airways Plc, American
Airlines and Iberia has moved closer to securing regulatory approval. The
short base (percentage shares outstanding on loan) has rapidly increased
from 22.4% to 23.8% over the past week.
NH
almost 24%
NH
wow
NH
that’s huge
BE
Remarkable.
BE
And since they mention the earnings on Friday
BE
Here’s a quick preview from SocGen
BE
EBIT, which we forecast at a loss of £211m for the nine months (loss of
£100m for Q3). Passenger traffic (RPKs), already reported, was down 2.2% (-3.3% in
Q3) and we forecast yield down 11.2% (-9.5% for Q3). We forecast revenues down
13.0% to £6,127m (-11.6% to £2,025m for Q3). We forecast costs down 8.9% (-9.3%
for Q3), greater than the fall in traffic but less than the fall in sales. We will also look for
any profit guidance for FY10 (March year end), and updates on cabin crew talks, the
pension deficit recovery plan, the planned Iberia merger, and BA’s application for
antitrust immunity (ATI) for its proposed Atlantic JV with American Airlines and Iberia.
BE
Potential market reaction With its exposure to premium traffic and the financial sector,
BA is highly geared to economic recovery. However, as noted above, it has a range of
specific challenges in addition to the pace of market recovery and we expect the market
to react to progress on these issues more than the size of the Q3 loss. Its shares have
risen 86% above their cyclical low point and are now trading on a FY11e P/BV of 1.2x,
which is 39% of their historic min-max range. In our view, flag carrier stocks should
trade at 20% of their P/BV range one year into what we believe will be a five year
recovery cycle. BA stock therefore appears also to price in the Iberia merger and Atlantic
ATI and leaves little scope for disappointment on industrial relations and pension issues.
NH
(Fitz – that’s it)
NH
thanks for that
NH
right
NH
I am just going to go
NH
and dig out
NH
thhe Goldman note on the airlines
NH
bear with me
NH
so
NH
GS love Iberia and BA
NH
they think the mergers goes ahead
NH
and earlier than expected
NH
here’s the note
NH
Our preferences among the flag carriers are Iberia (Conviction Buy) and BA (Buy). We
believe the proposed merger will happen, possibly ahead of schedule and that this
plus the potential for Anti trust immunity with American on the north Atlantic
represents meaningful positive change versus the last cycle.
NH
We also believe both will
do something when it comes to costs, in particular headcount. This brings with it high
profile industrial relations risk but we think that taking action on costs now is the only
opportunity to meaningfully shift structural costs and improve operational gearing. In our
view, BA’s revenue story is the best amongst the flag carriers due to its exposure to the
recovering south east of England economy and financial services. Offsetting this is Iberia’s
exposure to the depressed Spanish economy which dilutes BA’s earnings recovery profile
NH
With the combined valuation trading below where we see fair value based on mid
cycle returns and peak earnings we continue to see 30% potential upside for both
Iberia and BA. The risks to the stocks are lack of recovery in the Spanish and the British
economies, as well as any diminution in London’s importance as a financial centre,
industrial relations risk and BA’s pension deficit. We believe that the reality of the size of
the deficit will lead to concessions from employees on the future benefits that reduce the
liabilities side of the equation as we do not believe BA is capable of generating enough
cash on a consistent basis to fund aircraft replacement, pay down the pension deficit and
provide some sort of return on equity. It is also likely that interest rates will rise, increasing
the discount rate, which should reduce liabilities (but potentially hurt asset values).
NH
and there’s some more general stuff
NH
Increasing estimates on the back of higher revenues
We are increasing our estimates overall on the back of higher revenues,
especially for the flag carriers, and updating our costs forecasts for recent
moves in hedging and in the oil price. We have also consolidated Austrian
Airlines and bmi into Lufthansa’s estimates for the first time
NH
Source of opportunity
We continue to believe that revenue growth will be driven by long-haul
premium passenger demand, improving cargo demand as world trade
recovers and better than expected supply discipline. Europe’s airlines have
rising aircraft replacement requirements but have been trimming orders,
leaving us relaxed about the supply side of the equation.
We see ongoing risk in minimal reductions of heavily unionised
recalcitrant cost bases. This detracts from what is otherwise, given our
house GDP forecasts, an attractive GDP versus supply story with an
operational gearing booster.
NH
Catalyst
Catalysts include December 2009 quarter results and outlook; improving
lead indicators; monthly traffic stats commentary.
Risks
The obvious risks to the sector are limited economic recovery and
escalating fuel prices. The less obvious risks are ongoing inability to tackle
labour costs, inflationary airport costs and increased regulation, including
emissions taxes. Beyond this, risks such as pandemics, terrorism and wars
remain.
Iberia CL Buy; NWC to Buy, Finnair and SAS to Neutral
Iberia remains our top pick, on the Conviction Buy List. We upgrade
Norwegian to Buy from Neutral as it screens as inexpensive vs. peers and
Finnair and SAS to Neutral from Sell. We believe that Finnair will benefit
from expected improvements in the long-haul market. SAS is upgraded as
we believe the upside/downside risks are evenly balanced.
BE
(Lemmy: GS is not the shop to BA. Merrill and UBS have that job.)
BE
(Sorry – you already said that.)
11:52AM
NH
OK
NH
someone was asking about the mortgage approval figs this morning
NH
and the ever helpful
NH
Howard Archer is on hand
NH
with some analysis
NH
and they dipped in January
NH
The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchases dipped to 59,023 in January, after trending up to a 21-month high of 60,045 in December from a record low of 26,978 in November 2008. Indeed, this was the first dip in mortgage approvals since November 2008, although mortgage approvals were still up by up by 83.4% year-on-year in December. Meanwhile, mortgage lending moderated to £1.2 billion in December from £1.6 billion in November, although it was still above the monthly average of £0.9 billion for the previous six months.
NH
which seems odd
NH
with the Nationwide talking about pricies rising
NH
The dip in mortgage approvals in December was somewhat surprising given that housing market activity could have been lifted to a limited extent at the end of 2009 by buyers looking to beat the price threshold for stamp duty on house purchases moving back down to £125,000 in January. In general, housing market activity was lifted through 2009 by a significant fall in house prices from their 2007 peak levels and low mortgage interest rates.
NH
Nevertheless, this must be put into perspective. The increase in housing marked activity has been gradual overall; and, at 59,023 in December, mortgage approvals remain well below the average 92,400 a month seen between 1993 and 2009. It is considered that normally monthly mortgage approvals of 70,000-80,000 are consistent with stable house prices.
NH
A relapse in house prices is particularly likely to occur if more properties come on to the market as a result of the recent firming in prices, given that a shortage of properties has been a key factor supporting house prices since early 2009. Much will obviously depend on whether or not the economy can develop recovery after it crawled out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. Future developments in unemployment, earnings and interest rates will also obviously be key factors to future movements in house prices.
NH
Harsh Lemmy. He’s not one of those guys
NH
from the spread betting companies]
NH
now that is rentaquote territory
NH
actually
NH
it’s advertising
BE
Yup – walking billboards most of them.
BE
Anyway, these figures don’t seem to have budged the housebuilders much.
NH
No
NH
actually Barratt is up
NH
one of the best performers in the FTSE 250
Barratt Developments (BDEV:LSE): Last: 124.30, up 4.6 (+3.84%), High: 124.40, Low: 118.40, Volume: 2.65m
NH
(or have a large team Lemmy)
NH
any reason for that?
BE
Well, there’s a Deutsche Bank note doing the rounds that’s probably helping.
NH
so there is
NH
that’s a massive note on the housebuilders
NH
a real brick
BE
Here’s a taster of it.
BE
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading Deutsche Bank Company Research’s Research Product Committee
has deemed this work F.I.T.T. for investors seeking differentiated ideas. We initiate on the UK house builders sector with
a positive stance and see 35% potential upside from current levels based on our adjusted NAV valuation method. Our
top picks in the sector are Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt and Redrow.
NH
it’s FITT research
BE
(If you want a taster of a brick.)
BE
Fundamental: Strong volume recovery; improving pricing driven by mix We see the fundamentals for the UK new build
housing market as continuing to show improvement through 2010 and 2011. We anticipate strong volume growth of
10% reflecting increased mortgage lending. While we include housing market price declines to 2011 we see new build
selling price increasing by 3.5% in 2010E and 2.2% in 2011E driven by positive mix changes.
BE
Industry: A sharp rebound in margins anticipated by 2013 With now rejuvenated balance sheets, the UK house builders
have stepped back into the land market. With lower land costs to selling price being seen on these land acquisitions the
resultant higher returns, in combination with cost savings, are forecast to drive EBIT margins for the sector back to mid
teen levels by 2013.
BE
Thematic: Forward sales provide comfort if the housing market stalls Historically the housing market sees a seasonal
strength through the first half of the calendar year. However, in the first few months of 2010 there are a number of
factors which could negatively impact demand: the cessation of the stamp duty holiday, uncertainty over the outcome of
the general election, concerns over the impact of fiscal tightening, etc. However, strong forward sales already recorded
by the house builders should provide a cushion to protect volumes in early 2010. We anticipate new build volume to
prove more resilient than general market statistics and that this could provide a stock buying opportunity through the
coming months.
BE
Thought leading: We value the sector using our adjusted NAV model We value the UK house builders using our adjusted
NAV model. This model we believe captures all the elements of value creation available to the house builder including:
potential net asset write-backs/higher margins through the P&L due to over aggressive asset write-downs previously,
significant consented land banks, strategic land and management value creation, as well as also adjusting for changes in
pensions and deferred tax assets. For our stock selection we have 2 preferred themes: significant above sector margin
improvement (Taylor Wimpey: strong cost cutting and aggressive asset write-downs, Redrow: strategic change) and
under valuation of base NAV (Barratt and Persimmon).
NH
what’s does FITT mean?
BE
No idea.
BE
Think one of the Ts stands for thematic.
BE
Hang on – the answer’s above
BE
Fundamental – Industry – Thematic – Thought Leading
BE
So – that’s not trite at all.
NH
hmmm
NH
Taxloss sums it up nicely
NH
(VOM)
BE
Yes. Succinct but accurate.
11:59AM
NH
Right
NH
we haven’t had a look at the miners
NH
now
NH
first a bit of worrying news
NH
we have a man at the Indaba shindig in Cape Town
NH
he’s name is Matt Kennard
NH
he filed a preview post today
NH
and plans to send more as the conference rolls on
NH
however,
NH
a bit of worrying news
NH
I was robbed last night and am kind of shaky, I should be ok for tomorrow,

I am fine, just a bit shaken

NH
Now
NH
I thought Cape Town was supposed to be OK
BE
Depends where you are I guess.
NH
aren’t they are a conference centre?
BE
I suspect that in itself is a bit of a draw.
NH
crikey
NH
what’s gonna happen this summer
NH
when the World Cup kicks off
NH
anyway
NH
there’s some more sad news from Indaba
NH
no Frank Timis this year
NH
he’s not going
BE
Emoticon Disaster! Emoticon
NH
it could be a lack a vodka
NH
we are not sure
NH
but there were reports
NH
that
NH
he flew down in his private jet
NH
but his PR
NH
say this is untrue
BE
(Squareped: No, we didn’t. And yes, we’re cheapskates.)
NH
any price action in the miners today?
BE
Down a bit, no big catalysts.
BE
Although Vedanta’s doing okay versus the sector.
NH
is this on the back of the Indy break up story
Vedanta Resources (VED:LSE): Last: 2,458, up 31 (+1.28%), High: 2,502, Low: 2,367, Volume: 1.20m
BE
I guess it must be, yes.
BE
Vedanta Resources is plotting one of the biggest money-spinning corporate break-ups of a Ftse 100 company in years. The Agarwal family, which has a majority stake in the India-based miner, is considering a spin-off of several of its interests, resulting in five or six companies plus a parent. Vedanta would retain controlling interests in them all, but each would be separately listed.
NH
hmmmm
BE
A number of leading mining bankers in London have been asked to examine plans for the listings. For example, Vedanta wants a copper flotation to value the new business at $10bn, even though the overall company’s market valuation is only $10.6bn.
BE
“Vedanta is looking at its structure, trying to find a way to unlock value,” said one banker. By simplifying the businesses – so that various minor shareholdings are consolidated – they can be more easily valued in the market, resulting in a higher value overall.
NH
hmmmm again
NH
So Vedanta are undervalued then
BE
A lot of the sellside types make this argument.
BE
Conglomerate discount.
BE
Ragbag of assets.
NH
and loads of debt
BE
Er – yes.
BE
Where that falls into the breakup story is anyone’s guess.
BE
So is there any comment on this tale?
NH
well Liberum reckon a break up could trigger a 25% re-rating
NH
here’s their thinking
NH
The Independent reported on Sunday that Vedanta is considering spinning off some of its non-listed units, but maintaining a controlling interest in them. In October 2009, Vedanta announced its intentions to raise some $1bn via Sterlite Energy IPO which makes us think that spin off of other subsidiaries such as Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) and Vedanta Aluminium (VAL) could be likely.
NH
As we had highlighted in our report ‘Metals & Mining Monitor’ on 26th Jan, market is valuing these non-listed subsidiaries at costs, implying a lowly EV/EBITDA of 2.7x for FY11. These subsidiaries are on the verge of significant production ramp-up given a) Konkola commissioned its 300kt copper smelter last year and first production from the high grade Konkola Deep (remains a technical challenge) is scheduled to be commissioned later this year which could help the company to lower its operating cash costs b) VAL has commissioned its Jharsuguda Phase 1 (250ktpa fully commissioned and 250ktpa ramping-up) and Phase 2 expected to deliver its first metal later this year with full production by 2012. Spinning off these subsidiaries could re-rate PLC, but the company would have to pay a small price in terms of ‘holding company discount’.
NH
We estimate that these non-listed subsidiaries are worth $6bn (based on peer group multiples) vs market implied valuation $2.5bn which implies a 25% upside to current market valuation after assuming a 15% holding company discount. According to The Independent, Vedanta could raise as much as $10bn from the spin offs.
NH
We remain buyers of Vedanta for its strong organic growth pipeline, structural positioning in iron ore, zinc & aluminium and cheap fundamental P/E valuation of 8.3x FY11 and 5.3x FY12 spot earnings.
NH
(john EmoticonEmoticon)
12:08PM
NH
Now
NH
not much from Small Cap corner today
NH
everyone seems to be in Cape Town
NH
trying to avoid the muggers
NH
but
NH
there was an interesting piece in the New York Times this weekend
NH
on Kurdistab
NH
HT to Debbie Downer for this
NH
Feb. 1 (New York Times) — The semiautonomous region of
Kurdistan is the one place in battered Iraq that promised
economic boom times, but some of the foreign oil companies that
rushed in over the past few years are becoming increasingly
restless.
Their multibillion-dollar deals are still mired in a bitter
political dispute between the Kurdish region and the central
government in Baghdad.
They may have a stake in what is shaping up to be one of the
greatest oil bonanzas of modern times, but the prospect of
earning a profit, let alone recovering their costs, remains
highly uncertain.
BE
(“Kurdistab?” Very good.)
NH
hang on
NH
trying to find some more
NH
More potential headaches loom as public demands for scrutiny
of local oil contracts for suspected improprieties have gathered
momentum. The calls have come in the wake of revelations in
November that a former American diplomat had a business
relationship with a Norwegian company drilling for oil here,
while also acting as a political adviser to the Kurds during the
drafting of Iraq’s Constitution in 2005.
NH
“It is the single most important question for all of us: How
to get paid?” said Grant Harms, an executive with Niko Resources
Ltd., during a gathering Thursday night of oil companies in a
plush hotel conference room in the region’s capital, Erbil.
The issues of payment and the delays all the political
wrangling was imposing on their business plans were high on the
agenda as the oilmen dined on lamb roast and shrimp and sipped
imported wine.
Several companies had already invested billions of dollars
and supplied oil and gas without receiving any compensation.
In a bid to ease some of the immediate business concerns of
the more than 30 foreign oil companies now working in the region,
the Kurdish government recently presented Baghdad with a major
compromise that would allow the Norwegian company DNO and a
Chinese-Turkish joint venture called Ttopco to resume exports of
about 100,000 barrels a day via Iraq’s pipeline network. They
were stopped in October following disagreement between Baghdad
and Erbil over how the companies should be paid.
NH
anyway
NH
there’s loads more of that
NH
but
NH
what is our favourite stock doing this morning?
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP:LSE): Last: 92.00, up 1.5 (+1.66%), High: 92.00, Low: 88.00, Volume: 371.72k
BE
Up!
NH
hmmm
NH
a rally
NH
of sorts
BE
I’m sure it’ll go further once all the evil market makers have been shaken out.
NH
Bryce
NH
stop it
BE
Emoticon
NH
have you paid a visit to muppetinvestor.com recently
BE
I haven’t, no. Beginning to find it rather dispiriting.
BE
Like looking into a primary school classroom while the teacher’s away.
NH
indeed
12:12PM
NH
Right is is past midday
NH
the ROTR
NH
have worked their magic
NH
market now down
NH
not sure why it was up in the first place
NH
but FTSE 10 down off 0.05 points at 5,188
NH
oh the excitement of it all
NH
but there is some breaking news from Toyata
NH
WSJ NEWS ALERT: Toyota Outlines Plan to Fix Accelerator Pedals
NH

Toyota announced it will begin fixing accelerator pedals in recalled vehicles this week and that the parts for the repair are being shipped to dealers.

The announcement comes after Toyota received clearance from federal regulators for a repair to 2.3 million vehicles that were recalled over concerns that a sticky gas pedal could endanger the cars’ passengers. Toyota said the problem stems from excessive friction in the gas-pedal assembly and that the fix uses a steel reinforcement that reduces friction.

NH
and
NH
has there been a statement from NWG yet?
Northumbrian Water Group (NWG:LSE): Last: 284.10, up 25.5 (+9.86%), High: 292.30, Low: 280.00, Volume: 2.63m
BE
Nope.
BE
Still nothing.
NH
(NJS – yellow)
BE
Guess the Canadians will be waking up quite soon though.
NH
that’s true
NH
perhaps we get a statement then
BE
Perhaps.
BE
Ok – are we done for the day?
NH
almost
NH
just looking at Premier Foods
NH
the chairman gone this morning
NH
another victim of a rights issue
NH
although no one will admit that
NH
potentially
NH
an interesting move
Premier Foods (PFD:LSE): Last: 33.08, up 0.84 (+2.61%), High: 33.25, Low: 32.65, Volume: 4.60m
NH
got a bit of comment from Evo on this
NH
PFD continues to have ‘pariah status’ within the food sector. After repeated concerns about breaching debt covenants & continual denials about a right issue, PFD undertook a £404m equity issue in March 09. Even now the market continues to believe that PFD has too much debt at £1.375bn vs a market cap of £800m. Other concerns included mgmt credibility, earnings downgrades,a poor quality portfolio, lack of topline growth & a sizeable pension deficit.
NH
Admittedly there have been many false dawns and seemingly endless negatives, but at 32p we think Premier is worth another look for the following reasons:
NH
MANAGEMENT CHANGE:This morning PFD have confirmed the Sunday Times article that Chairman David Kappler will stand-down, probably at the next AGM in May. He has been Chairman since flotation in 2004. A big hitting new external Chairman and a strong foil to CEO Robert Schofield would be welcomed by the market. We would like to see someone like Roger Carr (Cadbury) appointed. The market has not yet seen the new CFO (Jim Smart) in action but the feedback that we have obtained from him time at Friends Provident & Boots has been very good. One consistent comment was that Jim would not have joined Premier if he didn’t see significant upside. At the FY results on 16 Feb, the CFO will provide new key performance indicators which if credible and communicated well could be a positive share price catalyst.
NH
PREMIER FOODS IS NOT EX GROWTH: We think Premier is far from ex growth. We believe that Premier should be able to generate 4-5% branded growth and 2-3% group sales growth. Premier’s top 10 brands have been growing at an impressive 10%+ rate. It was encouraging to see branded growth accelerate from 6% in Q3 to 8% in Q4 with share gains across many of Premier’s Grocery brands.Brands account for 63% of sales & the objective is to get this up to 75%. This should be very positive to the margin mix given that there is up to 1000bps difference between their brands and own-label. We think mgmt have a good track on innovation as evidenced by broad market share gain across their grocery division. However, bears are not focusing on the branded sales growth but on overall sales growth. It is true that the own label business has slowed but a big part of this is due to a deliberate decision to walk away from unprofitable own label contracts. We see this as a long term positive.
NH
REFINANCING UPSIDE: Premier’s new CFO might consider further simplification of their debt financing. We estimate that Premier’s average coupon on debt is currently c9-10%. Our bond analysts think Premier may be able to refinance in the high yield bond market at rates closer to 7.5% which if correct would increase 2011 PBT by £30m equivalent to a 15% EPS upgrade. Although Premier’s FY09E absolute debt remains high at £1.375bn, this represents 3.6x net debt/EBITDA, well within their yr end covenant of 4.5x. The difference this year from previous years is now that the restructuring programme is complete, Premier should generate decent cashflow. We forecast c£100m of FCF in FY09 and believe this is a sustainable level going forward. As a result we see net debt/EBITDA <3x by the end of 2011 driven by internal cash generation. Although we do not think big disposals are likely, if disposals were to happen,we would expect the shares to spike even if it resulted in earnings dilution. Pension cost contribution remain fixed at £50m for the next 3 years.
BE
Aha – another one thrown into the volcano.
NH

*** VERY CHEAP: The shares have fallen by 14% in the last 2 weeks despite what we considered to be a broadly ‘in line’ trading statement. Both PBT & Net debt were bang in line with consensus although EBITA was at the bottom end of a very tight £320-330m range. There has been very big volume in the stock since the FY update and would appear that a 5%+ holder is selling out. However the fact the shares didn’t tank might mean that the shares are close to bottoming and finding support at 30p. Premier continue to trade on sub-6x 2010E PE. Even on our preferred EV/NOPAT measure, Premier is at a 25% discount to mid cap peers on 8.5x 2010E. On our Current operational value (COV) model, Premier is the cheapest stock out of the 42 consumer staples stocks under coverage.
NH

CONCLUSION: Premier Foods is the UK biggest food manufacturer with sales of £2.5bn and are number 1 in 10 out of their 15 categories. Although we had a few niggles at the FY trading update (higher promo activity, weakness in chilled) we think the bombed out valuation is pricing in all of the negatives but is giving little consideration to a number of possible positives that we have flagged above. With a new CFO and incoming new Chairman, Premier could be turning over a new chapter. We think the risk reward profile at 32p looks very interesting. We maintain our Buy recommendation & 50p target price.
NH
right
NH
done with that
BE
Good.
12:17PM
NH
and Lorcan/Fitz
NH
there are reasons for the absence of a US ML
NH
reasons
NH
we may in the near future be able to reveal
NH
both Paul and Stacy
NH
are on special ops at the moment
NH
that explains their absence
NH
but they are both working very hard
NH
Right
NH
I think that is it
NH
for this morning’s session
NH
Bryce
NH
anything else from you?
BE
Nah – not really.
BE
Some people getting excited about this Shell story that crossed the wires earlier.
BE
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Cosan SA Industria & Comercio and Royal Dutch Shell Plc said they are seeking to merge their sugar and ethanol assets in Brazil in a transaction estimated at $12 billion.

The companies signed an agreement aimed at combining units that produce sugar and ethanol, generate energy from cane waste and distribute fuel in Brazil, Cosan and Shell said today in separate statements. The joint venture would assume $2.5 billion of Cosan’s net debt, and Shell would contribute $1.6 billion in cash over two years.

“We see joining with Cosan as a way to grow the role of low-carbon, sustainable biofuels in the global transportation fuel mix,” Mark Williams, director of Shell’s downstream business, said in an e-mailed statement.

NH
RDSa:LSE
NH
no auto quote for that
NH
how annyoying
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LSE): Last: 1,675, up 1.88 (+0.11%), High: 1,681, Low: 1,667, Volume: 1.84m
NH
(Fowke – he’s not in NY at the moment. and nor is Stacy)
BE
We’re well over deadline now, so let’s wrap it up.
NH
yes
NH
the Lunch Wrap must go
NH
until tomorrow
NH
see you then
NH
and thanks for tuning in
NH
cya
BE
Bye.
Print