January, 2010
Primary dealer pains
Poor primary dealers.
They are the official trading partners of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, currently numbering 18, but they’ve had to contend with some difficult newsflow in recent weeks.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville on Monday morning,
- Deal or no deal at Intl Power?
- Greek debt disaster.
- Modern football finance: Extra Time.
- Corporate markets head for indigestion.
- Consulting the Greek CDS oracle.
Markets Live transcript 18 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 18 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHola NHand welcome to Markets Live
Corporate markets head for indigestion
After the busiest start to any year for sovereign emerging-market debt, it’s corporate bond investors around the world who now seem to be heading for a massive case of indigestion, as ShortView noted last week.
[Modern Football Finance] Extra Time
The more that Manchester United’s £500m senior notes offering is picked over, the less appealing its looks, especially at the 9.25% interest rate implied by the pro-forma figures in the prospectus.
Here’s something we picked up from Covenant Review,
Consulting the Greek CDS oracle
Forecasting the fate of nations has never been easy.
Take for example the story of King Croesus of Lydia, told by Greek historian Herodotus.
In trying to decide upon a campaign against the Persians,
China’s lukewarm money?
Guan Tao, head of the international payment department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, over the weekend stated that stronger capital control were essential to maintaining stability in the Chinese currency and price level,
Deal or no deal at Intl Power?
It is 40 minutes since trading on the London Stock Exchange got under way on Monday morning — and still no statement from either International Power or GDF-Suez on the Sunday Times bid report, reproduced in part below.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- How to get your share of bonuspalooza.
- The debt snowball problem.
- “Don’t give money to Haiti.”
- Basel, faulty?
- “It’s not about interest rates yet.”
- Second-lien shadiness.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: Smarter ways to punish a banker
Whenever you wonder if rage at Wall Street is getting a little out of hand, some titan of the industry speaks up and makes you think,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- GDF-Suez eyes partnership tie-up with International Power – report.
- Tullow exercises pre-emption right on proposed sale of Heritage’s Ugandan assets – statement and statement.
The Weekender
Selected reads from FT Alphaville this week,
- Modern football finance: Man Utd edition (updated)
- PIKing apart the Man Utd refinancing
- A Greek tragedy
- Paying the piper
- Testimony the FCIC should really be hearing…
- A ‘London loophole’ for FX
- [Redacted]
Best/worst read,
Rosenberg’s ‘Not So Great Depression’
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has taken umbrage with the term ‘The Great Recession’ to describe the current global economic malaise.
According to the seasoned economist, it’s quite clear what we experienced last year was not a recession but a depression.
Save our FX leverage!
Pop quiz, FX hotshot.
There’s a bomb in your market. Once your position hits 200:1 leverage, your trade is armed. If your trade drops below your stop-loss, it blows up. What do you?
In an action film,
(Principal) Forgiveness at JP Morgan
Watch those JPM charge-off numbers, they are very much skewed by various mortgage modification programs. From the fourth-quarter earnings presentation:
Prime and subprime mortgage delinquencies impacted by foreclosure moratorium,
Is the CFTC trying to restrict physical traders after all?
Thursday’s CFTC proposals on position limits in the energy markets were largely seen as a ‘light touch’ by industry voices. This is because, quantifiably speaking, they set loose limits that hardly went beyond those already enforced by exchanges in the form of accountability limits.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Friday morning,
- From Obama to Europe with love.
- Greek dεfαult risk.
- Another one for the Aim Hall of Shame.
- Say sayonara to the Pru.
- Shiseido’s Monet deal.
- Gordon Gekko and a bullish omen in Further reading.
JPM posts Q4 earnings of 74 cents a share, net income of $3.3bn
JP Morgan kicked off the fourth-quarter US investment bank earnings season (well, excluding the Federal Reserve) on Friday, with a sound beat of analysts’ expectations. Though, we should note, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon was himself not impressed with the bank’s numbers.
A ‘London loophole’ for FX
The CFTC has had a busy week. On Thursday the regulator unveiled details of how it plans to curb excessive speculation in the energy market.
Earlier on Wednesday, meanwhile, it revealed proposals for the spot FX market — an area that has until now escaped the scrutiny of regulators due to its over-the-counter status.
Markets Live transcript 15 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:18 on 15 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHGood morning everyone NHIt’s 11.03am
Sayonara to the Pru
UK insurer Prudential has decided to suspend new life insurance sales in the Japanese market after eight years, a move which comes even though its business there would not be considered bad by any standards.
Another one for the Aim Hall of Shame
H/T to reader Real Limey for this.
Background: Shares in Meldex were suspended in December 2008 as the Cambridge-based drug company told investors it was “seeking to clarify its trading and working capital position”.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- How bankers (really) think.
- The return of Gordon Gekko.
- The missing man at the hearing.
- Four pros on investing in the next decade.
- Jon Stewart captures the zeitgeist.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Insight: Gillian Tett – Britain’s unsavoury debt mire
Which country experienced the biggest jump in debt, relative to gross domestic product,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Hershey said to be accelerating efforts to prepare Cadbury offer – Bloomberg.
- Man Group funds under management suffer $1.2bn negative investment movement in Q4 – statement.
Counterfeit statistics?
Rawdon Adams at Capital Chronicle has dug out some eye-catching data from the ECB on counterfeiting. The news is that is that it’s on the rise across all denominations.
But are the number themselves fraudulent?
The ECB reckons less than €20m in dud euros is in circulation,