January, 2010
Black Swan addendum
A note on Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s website, www.fooledbyrandomness.com, mentions a coming addition to his seminal Black Swan:
PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM ON MEDIA HIATUS Nov 2009 to May 2010 with the 2nd edition of The Black Swan (and perhaps,
Teun’s tightening tactics
Teun Draaisma’s latest is a veritable treatise of tightening threats.
In it, Morgan Stanley’s chief European strategist warns of the impending switch from stimulus-overload to stimulus-withdrawal — something he’s mentioned before but,
CO2 dump slump fears
Back in December, when the Copenhagen Summit failed to produce a binding global agreement on tackling climate change, the European carbon market slumped.
On Monday, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch point out that Phase II of the European Trading scheme may be facing greater challenges still.
The tricky business of forecasting orderbooks
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure for the price of shipping bulk commodities, has made a wavering comeback since plunging like a stone in the fourth quarter of 2008:
Broker Icap now makes the point that seaborne dry bulk trade has recouped almost all of its lost volume,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Monday morning,
- The bank problem in a single chart.
- That lack of Greek contagion.
- D-Day for Greece.
- The ultimate Jingle Mail.
- Lloyds needs to sell Scottish Widows.
That lack of Greek contagion
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank’s fixed income team, a reminder of the extent to which risk is being priced into Greek government debt, as measured by the spread between Hellenic Republic bonds and German bunds:
Markets Live transcript 25 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:21 on 25 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NHHalloa
NHgood morning
NHand welcome to the start of another week
The ultimate in Jingle Mail
Jingle Mail : A situation where a homeowner mails his or her house keys to a mortgage lender due to an inability to meet mortgage payment obligations and a lack of equity in the property. If a homeowner is upside-down in a mortgage and feels the entire loan is a lost cause,
For corporate bonds, a week is an eternity
“Corporate markets head for indigestion”, was the headline last week for a bleak prognosis:
After the busiest start to any year for sovereign emerging-market debt, it’s corporate bond investors around the world who now seem to be heading for a massive case of indigestion,
A sweet ‘Japan moment’ for China’s boy racers
When a car full of boy-racers overtakes an older, sputtering jalopy, onlookers give the slower vehicle barely a glance, though the racers themselves “might offer a finger-related gesture”, writes Bill Emmott,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Quantastic: The minds behind the meltdown.
- “You can’t be a little bit pregnant, and you can’t kinda-sorta ban proprietary trading.”
- Trichet learns German.
- Goldman’s UK partners make do with £1m each.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Monday’s FT,
Clive Crook: How Obama can reset his presidency
The Obama presidency is not dead yet, says the FT’s Crook. The midterm elections are 10 months away,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
-Ferrero confirms does not intend to make an offer for Cadbury – statement.
- Kraft gives more details of its Mix and Match facility, says Cadbury shareholders can elect for 799p cash per shr – statement.
Beating up Bernanke
This is Barbara Boxer, the latest Senate Democrat to have turned against Ben Bernanke’s re-confirmation as Fed chairman.
While Bernanke’s has the president’s direct support, the democrats need 60 votes in the Senate – and getting those votes is suddenly down to the wire.
The Volcker effect on PE
As speculation over the impact of the Volcker vagaries on banks’ ownership of private equity assets continues, the Private Equity Council in New York has done a quick tally-up of banks’ direct investment in PE funds.
More from the ‘save our leverage’ coalition
As reported earlier on FT Alphaville, the CFTC is cracking down on the US retail forex market in a big way.
As well as publishing proposals to license all off-exchange retail operators — which the industry broadly accepted as ‘fair enough’ — the regulator unexpectedly announced it wanted to curtail leverage extended to clients to 10:1.
The special (regulatory) relationship
A bit academic perhaps, given the newsflow, but FDIC chairman Sheila Bair and Bank of England governor Mervyn King have been doing the diplomatic shuffle.
In fact they’ve got a memorandum of understanding!
It covers plans for dealing with bust or failing banks with activities in both the US and the UK,
[Modern Football Finance] They think it’s all over…
… it is now. Presenting the pricing details for the Manchester United’s senior notes offering.
Emphasis ours.
Issuer: MU Finance plc.
Sec Type: Senior Secured Notes (144A/RegS,
This may sound a touch heretical, but…
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg on Thursday proffered some contrarian thoughts about fiscal deficits.
Highlights below, emphasis FT Alphaville’s:
As for the bond market, we continue to see an overwhelming consensus that interest rates must move higher because of large-scale fiscal deficits.
The market-maker problem
Reuters uber-columnist John Kemp has penned some thoughts about the ‘Volcker rule’, and according to him the biggest problem facing the implementation of the prop trading ban will be differentiating internal speculative business from market-making activity.
The Volcker rule, our bet it goes through… (MWAG)
…and it will not be pretty for banks or consumers.
So says Meredith, ‘superstar banking analyst’, Whitney of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC (MWAG).
As usual we are having trouble getting hold of the full note/email,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Friday morning,
- The Volcker rule, the US analysts react (part I).
- The Volcker rule, the European analysts react (part II).
- The Volcker rule, the impact on IDBs (part III).