January, 2010
Markets Live transcript 6 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:17 on 6 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NH
good morning
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
Better late than never
It is has only taken three and half years, but the FSA has finally started (criminal) proceedings against former directors of iSoft, the healthcare software company that was one of the key players in the government’s bungled £12.4bn upgrade of NHS computer systems.
As good as it gets for the retailers
The Christmas reporting season for the retail sector is just getting into full swing, but already some trends are emerging.
Both Next Marks and Spencer have reported sales figures which impressed (in fact,
Buffett/Kraft conspiracy theories
7.5p, or 1 per cent.
That’s the gap between the Cadbury share price and the value of Kraft’s £10.4bn bid on Wednesday morning.
Which will no doubt please those conspiracy theorists (both in the media and the stockmarket) who believe Warren Buffett is in league with Kraft’s management to secure Cadbury at a knockdown price.
TrimTabs on that ‘US government-rigged stock market’
FT Alphaville loves a good conspiracy theory, so here’s one to kick off Wednesday morning.
It’s the TrimTabs report referenced in this morning’s 6am Cut, questioning whether the US government is secretly propping up stock markets.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
– Is the Huffington bank boycott a good idea?
- Can Manchester United spend?
- “Right now banks are earning their way back into profitability by playing the spread…”
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: The eurozone’s next decade will be tough
What would have happened during the financial crisis if the euro had not existed? The short answer,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Marks & Spencer UK like-for-like sales rise 0.8% over 13 weeks to December 26 – statement.
- Corporate: Easyjet, Majestic Wine, Domino’s Pizza.
How much trouble is Prince Alwaleed’s Kingdom Holding actually in?
There’s an other-worldly aspect to the news release issued by Kingdom Holding on Tuesday. Let’s start with the title:
In an Unprecedented Move, Prince Alwaleed Grants 180 million from his Citigroup Shares to Kingdom Holding Shareholders at no Cost,
Pimco makes it personal in the UK
Pimco has laid into the UK again – this time having a go, specifically, at the Labour government.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management, said there was an 80 per cent chance of a credit rating downgrade for the UK if the chancellor’s debt reduction plans remain as they are.
CDS report: Kraft’s takeover ambitions hit the buffers
Gavan Nolan of Markit wrote this CDS report
Credit outperformed equity today as European credit indices threatened to break through key resistance levels. The Markit iTraxx Europe tightened by around 1.5bp to hover around the 70bp level,
The Royal Dog bear squeeze
RBS has enjoyed an explosive start to 2010.
Up 10% on Monday, its shares have risen another 10% today.
A number of factors have contributed to the move: a broker tip and odd-ball rumours of Brazilian interest,
ADHD, in 140 characters or less
Shire seems to have found the perfect marketing medium to promote its ADHD potion – Twitter, of course.
What better way to promote Vyvanse, a drug aimed at countering hyperactivity and impulsivity, than using a social media tool tailored to hyperactivity and impulsivity?
You can join the 260 existing (and unidentified) followers of ADHD Support tweets here.
Cadbury gets creamed by Buffett…
… who also delivers an almighty slapdown to Kraft.
In early afternoon trading on Tuesday, shares in the UK confectioner were hit hard – falling over 4% to 770p
The reason? Warren Buffett, who has thrown a rather big spanner in the works.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Tuesday morning,
- Rescanning Smiths Group.
- BarCap on Europe’s TBTF.
- BarCap’s ‘credit surprise.’
- BarCap’s funding findings.
- Many more risktakers in Pink picks.
Markets Live transcript 5 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:10 on 5 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NH
good morning
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
Rescanning Smiths Group (updated)
On Monday we reflected on the recent performance of Smiths Group, the world leader in airport security and inspection.
Since the failed terrorist attack on a US-bound airplane over Christmas its shares have risen almost 10 per cent as investors have focused on the possibility of full body screening being introduced at airports globally.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- “Don’t blame ME for the financial crisis.”
- Taibbi on Fannie, Freddie and the New Red and Blue.
- “Bankers are like movie stars….”
- A big year for oil?
- Dubious plans for redeeming US money market accounts.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Investor’s Notebook: A look ahead to 2010
Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian, Fund manager Marc Faber and Chairman Morgan Stanley Asia Stephen Roach give their expectations for the year ahead.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Nestle says it does not intend to make offer for Cadbury – statement.
- Kraft sells North American pizza business to Nestle for $3.7bn and increases cash portion of its £10.3bn offer for Cadbury – statement and statement.
Dogeza, US style
Here’s a trend we’d like to encourage…
Ten years after consummating what is generally regarded as the worst merger in corporate history, former Time Warner AOL chief executive Jerry Levin has apologised.
CDS report: Nestle sale triggers Cadbury speculation
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
It was business as usual today as the credit and equity markets resumed their rally from last year. The Markit iTraxx Europe index closed at 71.5bp, over 2bp tighter than the year-end mark and the tightest level since May 2008 (excluding roll effects).
Deference, Dubai style
From Bloomberg on Monday afternoon:
Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum opened the world’s tallest tower today and renamed the building Burj Khalifa after Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan,
Sovereign debt crises 2010, an RBS sapling
What is the `Tree of Truth’?
According to RBS, it is a Binary Recursive Tree Approach aimed at selecting explanatory variables and critical threshold levels that best discriminate between sovereign debt crisis and non-sovereign debt crisis states.
MergerMarket’s M&A rankings
Investment banks like these things — and when the latest deal league tables show Goldman Sachs being knocked off the top spot by Morgan Stanley we can treat it as bona fide news.
From MergerMarket,
Rusal’s red pen treatment
You probably had better things to do over the festive period than plough through the 1,141 page IPO prospectus for Oleg Deripaska’s UC Rusal.
Which gives us the opportunity to highlight page 3 of the document.
Delinquent CMBS, the `C’ stands for climbing
Behold, what looks to be the biggest monthly increase in delinquent CMBS in 2009 (so far).
Realpoint has released its CMBS delinquency report for November 2009.
With the exception of June 2009,