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Markets Live transcript 21 Jan 2010

Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:17 on 21 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder

NH
good morning
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
FT Alphaville’s daily interaction with a load of rabble on the other side of the screen
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
NH
Goldmans whisper number 5.12$ (cons 5.20$)
NH
in case you are interesting
NH
figs due before the US open
NH
Bryce is here
NH
but not logged in
BE
Hello.
NH
yet
NH
Hellow
BE
Am now.
NH
lots to get through this morning
NH
staggering Chinese GDP numbers
NH
Obama’s latest broadside at the banks
NH
Greek bond spreads blowing out
NH
and lots and lots of trading updates
NH
right
11:05AM
NH
where are we trading?
BE
down now
BE
FTSE’s off 1.5 at 5419
NH
good
NH
I was sort of shocked that the market opened 40 points higher
BE
well Wall Street did recoup a chunk of losses after we closed last night
NH
yeah
NH
But those Chinese GDP figures
NH
a rate rise is nailed on now, surely
NH
as soon as next week if the whispers are to be believed
BE
really?
NH
that’s the chatter
NH
and the Obama’s clamp down on prop desks
NH
well, it looks like we are heading for a new Glass Steagall
BE
hmmm
BE
actually this is all a bit of a groundhog day
BE
market down
BE
miners getting battered again
BE
China to blame
BE
Euro unsettled by concerns over the Greeks
NH
indeed
NH
and a pretty savage mark down for the miners again
NH
red everywhere
Rio Tinto (RIO:LSE): Last: 3,348, down 118 (-3.40%), High: 3,534, Low: 3,342, Volume: 3.51m
Anglo American PLC (AAL:LSE): Last: 2,544, down 107.5 (-4.06%), High: 2,684, Low: 2,543, Volume: 2.89m
Xstrata (XTA:LSE): Last: 1,101, down 41 (-3.59%), High: 1,167, Low: 1,097, Volume: 9.21m
Fresnillo Plc (FRES:LSE): Last: 750.00, down 26 (-3.35%), High: 788.00, Low: 750.00, Volume: 373.00k
Kazakhmys (KAZ:LSE): Last: 1,323, down 39 (-2.86%), High: 1,399, Low: 1,320, Volume: 1.38m
BE
FTSE’s now exactly flat on the year. We’ve spent four weeks to go exactly nowhere.
BE
some of the banks getting hit as well
BE
Standard Chartered
BE
Off 44p at 14.64
BE
because of its Asian exposure
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 291.42, down 9.43 (-3.13%), High: 305.25, Low: 290.13, Volume: 26.82m
BE
presumably on fears that Obama is going to clamp down on the prop operations
NH
(Mungers: Sky won’t sell that stake for years. This will end in Brussels)
NH
yes
NH
not good for barc
BE
Nope.
NH
and this Basel III stuff
NH
it won’t go away either
NH
Tracy did another post this morning – this time on Lloyds
NH
reckon its Equity Tier One could end up below 5% once deductions are taken into account
NH
and there’s some debate about whether this will trigger the conversion clause on its CoCo’s
NH
if you want to read more
NH
go here
BE
interesting
BE
back to Obama for a moment
BE
others being hit too by the plans to limit the size of prop trading
BE
BGC Partners down 6% premarket in the States
BE
Some people talking about a readacross for Icap and Tullett
NH
(Munger yes we know. They can still appeal and take it to Brussels. And they will)
BE
Although I didn’t think they had prop desks of any significance.
NH
nor me
NH
thought it was all agency stuff
11:11AM
NH
Okay
NH
back to China for a moment
NH
and a bit of comment on today’s GDP numbers
NH
Right, this is from Blue Oak North Square
NH
China’s real GDP increased by 10.7% in Q4, ahead of an expected growth of 10.5%, while annual GDP increased by 8.7%, according to NBS. Also, CPI increased by 1.9% yoy and PPI went up by 1.7% yoy, in December, ahead of expected increases of 1.4% and 0.8% yoy respectively. This is the first time for PPI to experience a positive year-on-year growth since Dec. 2008.
NH
The increase in both GDP and inflation ahead of expectations indicates that, as well as the recent limits implemented on lending and the 50bp hike in the reserve requirement ratio, the regulator may be forced to raise interest rates earlier than it planned, which may also lead to an earlier than planned easing of the RMB exchange rate.
NH
and also note this
NH
Interest Rate of Three Month Central Bank Bills Up By 4.04bps to 1.4088%
PBOC issued 90bn yuan of three-month central bank bills today, 40bn yuan more than last week, and 48bn yuan of 91-day repurchases. The interest rate on 3-month central bank bills was 1.4088%, 4.04 bps higher than last week. Considering that the issuance scale of 3-month central bank bills has largely increased, the interest rate growth is not completely unexpected. At present, the latest interest rate on 3-month central bank bills is 1.39% in the secondary market.
NH
PBOC also issued 24bn yuan of one-year central bank bills on 19 Jan. Considering that a total of 190bn yuan of central bank bills and repurchases will mature this week, PBOC realised a net withdrawal of 28bn yuan this week, which is 74bn yuan less than the net withdrawal last week.

BE
So this is what a tightening feels like
NH
(good point Daddy. Good point)
NH
and it doesn’t look to be much fun
BE
I have a bit more China comment
BE
this is from Standard Chartered
BE
The larger–than-expected rise in the consumer price index in December, and the further uptrend expected in the coming months, is likely to fuel market expectations of more monetary tightening in the near term. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has announced a target for new loan growth of CNY 7.5trn in 2010, significantly lower than the level seen in 2009 (a 31.7% increase in new loans to CNY 9.5trn). Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao suggested during a State Council meeting on Tuesday that policy makers are becoming more confident in China‟s economic recovery.
BE
This is a shift in the official tone, and indicates that policy decisions will become increasingly focused on restructuring China‟s long-term economic growth model to increase domestic demand and reducing the country‟s reliance on exports.
Despite the banking regulator‟s more stringent loan growth target, we expect the authorities to approach tightening with caution. We expect two hikes in the 1Y lending rate, of 27bps each in Q1 and Q2, by the People‟s Bank of China (PBoC). However, the need for job creation and the uncertainty of the export recovery mean that the central bank will need to keep a close watch on maintaining economic growth. This also implies that conditions are not yet ripe for Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciation. We expect the authorities to start allowing gradual and modest CNY appreciation in mid-2010, when the export recovery is more sustainable. A build-up of imported inflationary pressure may also prompt the PBoC to allow some currency strength to pre-empt inflationary pressure
BE
And there’s a huge note from Goldman’s China team that I haven’t had time to go through
BE
Here’s the last par though
BE
While we expect sequential external demand to soften in the coming months, it is
important to realise that it is currently at an extraordinarily high level (70% qoq s.a. ann.
in 4Q2009). Even after a meaningful softening to 20% (which is broadly consistent with
our GDP by expenditure forecasts), export growth will still likely be strong. Unless the
government is willing to control exports growth by adjusting the exchange rate by a large
amount, domestic demand has to be dampened to control inflation. Given the strong
emphasis of stimulating private consumption, the pressures will likely to be mostly felt
on FAI and less importantly on government consumption. On the other hand, if the
government continues to tighten modestly via modest hikes to the RRR and interest rates
in 2007 style (the government frequently adjusted the RRR and interest rates in 2007
throughout the year, typically by 50 bp to the RRR and 27 bp to interest rates each time),
or stringent measures to stop lending only after a very large amount of loans have already
been made as in January, we may see inflation continuing to rise despite an apparently
tightened policy stance.
BE
And now we should move on to some individual stock bits and pieces
11:14AM
BE
Neil’s on the phone at the moment.
NH
Yes
NH
Can I just clear something up on ITV
NH
this was today’s news
NH
RTRS-UK COURT DENIES BSKYB APPEAL OVER KEEPING ITV STAK
NH
Sky owns 17.9% in ITV
NH
but
NH
this is not the end of the road
NH
here’s what Jane Croft,our law courts correspondent had to say
NH
BSkyB will have to sell its controversial stake in ITV, the Court of Appeal ruled on Thursday.
In the fourth ruling on the matter, the court ruled that Sky would have to reduce its stake in ITV to below 7.5 pc and also denied Sky permission to appeal to the Supreme Court although Sky can appeal seperately to the Court.
Sky has been trying to retain the holding for the past two years following a Competition Commission ruling.
At the time its acquisition was thought to be aimed at thwarting Virgin Media(then called NTL) from merging with ITV. However Sky could now face losses if it sold the shares which it acquired at 135p.
BE
So they can appeal seperately.
NH
yes
NH
and then take to Brussels
NH
which is why I am guessing
NH
there hasn’t been much price reaction
NH
this could take years before it is resolved
ITV (ITV:LSE): Last: 58.05, up 0.2 (+0.35%), High: 58.85, Low: 57.25, Volume: 7.89m
BE
(Which is second behind Arm Holdings to replace Cadbury in the FTSE 100, incidentally.)
British Sky Broadcasting (BSY:LSE): Last: 563.50, down 0.5 (-0.09%), High: 565.50, Low: 561.00, Volume: 448.26k
NH
I haven’t seen any comment on this yet
NH
and Sky have just put out a holding statement
BE
Got a quick line from Credit Suisse ahead of the judgement
NH
ok
NH
thanks
BE
Although Sky has lost over £500m on its investment in ITV, it achieved its strategic
objective, and the value loss has already been discounted by the market. The ~£400m
current market value of Sky’s stake in ITV represents only 4% of Sky’s market cap, so
even if it had to sell at a discount there should not be much stock price reaction. The readacross
to ITV is clearly more important, as in whether someone purchases the full stake
(though we are sceptical of takeover interest given the limited synergies for cross-border
trade buyer, and the lack of interest from private equity in structurally challenged traditional
media), or whether Sky is forced to sell shares into the market. In any case we expect Sky
will be given a 6-9m timeframe to sell down its stake.
NH
thanks for that
BE
And here’s their line on the appeal process
BE
Although Sky is likely to appeal if the decision once more goes against it, there is no
guarantee that Supreme Court – the only court left for it to apply to – would hear the case.
NH
hmm
NH
that chimes with the line from our media team
NH
Sky is running out of road
NH
BSkyB will have to sell its controversial stake in ITV, the Court of Appeal ruled yesterday, leaving the pay-TV company with a potential loss of £500m.
In the fourth ruling on the matter, the court ruled that BSkyB would have to reduce its 17.9 per cent stake in ITV to below 7.5 per cent.
BSkyB has been trying to retain the holding for the past two years following a Competition Commission ruling that Sky’s stake gave it undue influence in the UK media and was not in the public interest.
NH
The company is taking legal advice on whether to appeal directly to the Supreme Court and has 28 days to do so.
BSkyB is unlikely to win another appeal, according to media analysts, and is undecided about whether to divest to 7.5 per cent or sell the whole stake.
The company has been approached by both strategic and financial buyers which are likely to include Mediaset, the Italian media group controlled by Silvio Berlusconi and RTL, the owner of channel Five.
NH
James Murdoch, then chief executive of BSkyB, paid £940m for the stake at 135p a share in 2006. ITV shares closed at 57.85p yesterday. This represents a loss of around £530m for BSkyB.
BE
Interesting line about Mediaset.
NH
yes
NH
that would obviously help the price
NH
But i still expect BSky to keep fighting
NH
Shall we move on
BE
Sure.
11:21AM
BE
Where to?
NH
What about the Not So Toxic Pub Company
BE
Ah – Enterprise
NH
Yes
NH
Shares motoring this morning
Enterprise Inns (ETI:LSE): Last: 107.50, up 12.6 (+13.28%), High: 108.00, Low: 98.00, Volume: 5.95m
BE
Trading better than expected, right?
NH
well
NH
this is how bad things have got
NH
that a just because income per pub is down 4%
NH
and not 8%
NH
that can trigger
NH
a big rise in the share price
NH
even allowing for the fact
NH
that Enterprise is having to pay its landlords more cash in support
NH
and
NH
also
NH
there’s no fresh news on refinancing
NH
all in all
NH
things aren’t getting any worse
NH
but they aren’t getting any better
BE
Merrill seem to have a rather more bullish interpretation than yours.
BE
Here’s their morning note
BE
Awaited catalyst – trading improves
BE
Finally trading improves to -4% net income per pub
Net income per pub has gone from -8% last year to -4% in the 16 weeks to 16
January 2010. This significant improvement is mainly due to asset disposals at
the bottom end of the estate. Also the top 82% of the estate is down by less than 2% per pub. Trading over the Christmas period was strong and the weather conditions in January produced mixed results.
BE
Other positive signals
There has been good demand from licensees seeking a pub with Enterprise Inns.
Also, the number of pubs held up in legal and temporary management
agreements has fallen and as a result financial assistance to tenants has
reduced. Overall, costs of this assistance, business failures and TMA’s is higher
so far this year but we expect this to reduce going forward.
BE
Big beat on disposals – considerably above book value
Already 103 pubs have been sold for £32m and contracts have also been
exchanged for a further 129 pubs with expected proceeds of £47m. This takes
disposal proceeds to £79m so far. These have been done considerably above
book value underpinning our view that the estate is fairly valued. Company
guidance is for at least £100m of disposals and we have £120m for 2010 at the
moment. We expect the company to beat both of these numbers.
NH
(Monkey – sorry about that. will check what’s happening)
BE
Don’t ignore the Sale & Leaseback
We think the market is not giving Enterprise enough credit for its successful S&L
programme. So far, it has sold 39 pubs for £39m based on a 35 year non-index
linked lease at an average cost of 6% to ETI. These pubs realised a significant
profit above book. Enterprise will place another 24 properties in auctions soon.
Still confident regarding refinancing
The company has had continued discussions with its banking group and remains
confident it will be able to refinance its bank loan by the end of the financial year
(Sep 2010). We expect this amount to be c£550m.
Reiterate Buy with 240p Price objective
Enterprise has a Net Asset Value of 300p in 2010e. This stock trades on a 68%
discount to this NAV, despite a recent property valuation and asset disposals at
book value. Reiterate our Buy rating with 240p price objective.
BE
And here are the thoughts of Douglas Jack at Numis
BE
Average net income per pub has improved from last year’s -8% to -4% in Q1 due to
disposals and turning around tail-end pubs. We are leaving our forecasts
unchanged. Good progress with disposals, confidence regarding the bank
refinancing and clear signs of trading stabilisation should boost the shares in the
short-term and provide a positive read-through to Punch Taverns.
We are not changing our consensus-in-line forecasts which assume that average
profits recover to -1% for numerous reasons:
BE
Last year, support costs peaked in Q3 at: 218 temporary management agreements
(TMA; 2009 cost £7m); £1.7m of monthly non-contractual rent concessions. In addition,
the cost of business failures was £25m in 2009.
n Management action and disposals have enabled support costs to fall, in absolute
terms. Although they were up year-on-year in Q1 (Q109 had no TMAs), they should
soon become a positive LFL factor as support costs peaked between April and June
2009. The number of TMAs is down substantially and the cost of rent concessions and
business failures is also falling.
n The pace of disposals has accelerated, with 106 pubs sold for £32m in Q1. We
estimate that each year’s disposal programme of c400 pubs is adding 3% to average
profits (whereas the substantive estate has improved from -3% to -2%, the disposal
estate should still be sharply down).
BE
Disposals and the sale and leaseback of 20 London pubs for £39m (on yield of c6%)
achieved a profit above book value , which has led management to state its pub values
are conservatively valued (NAV 304p/share) and that property values have stabilised.
Reasons for medium-term caution include: the c£650m bank debt refinancing; potential
regulatory interference; and fiscal tightening. If the tenanted pub companies continue to
exit their tail-end problem sites, the scale of these risks should reduce and here progress
is very strong, in contrast to market concerns.
An uncertain politic-economic outlook and Enterprise’s equity accounting for 12%
of the EV (and a current valuation of 0.32x price:book) should ensure further
volatility for the shares. Today’s significantly improved trading update, pointing
towards stabilisation and progress, should boost the shares in the short-term.
BE
Hope that’s all useful.
NH
and all of that seems to have dragged The Original Toxic Pub Company higher
Punch Taverns (PUB:LSE): Last: 78.70, up 4.25 (+5.71%), High: 80.00, Low: 75.15, Volume: 1.95m
NH
but Punch is still way, way below
NH
the equity offering price
11:26AM
NH
Right
NH
let’s look at another trading update
NH
United Utilities
NH
shares are up
NH
23.5p at 532p
NH
and as far as I can see
NH
this is relief
NH
relief that there is no cash call
NH
and relief that the divi cut
NH
or rebasement
NH
is not as big as feared
BE
Yep – another one for the “better than feared” category, this.
NH
Caz had a good wrap out on this today
BE
…. having been psychic yesterday.
NH
which I can get
NH
UU has published its interim management statement this morning. In our view, the key points are:
UU has decided to accept Ofwat’s final determination (FD)

UU intends to pay a 2010/11 DPS of 30p, which represents a 12.5% cut from the 2009/10E DPS of 34.3p. This is better than our expectation of a 20% DPS reduction and much better than the most bearish analysts who were expecting around a 40% reduction. UU has also stated that it expects to grow the dividend at RPI+2% p.a. from the 30p base.

UU believes that its capital structure is robust and expects Moody’s to maintain its current credit rating although S&P may assign a lower rating due to differing methodologies. Therefore there is no need to raise equity.

Trading from 1 October 2009 to 20 January 2010 is in line with expectations.

NH
Recommendation and Valuation
We believe that this morning’s announcement is positive and expect the shares to perform well today. With all of the quoted companies having accepted Ofwat’s FD and outlined their dividend policy there is little regulatory risk around the sector and concerns around dividends and capital structure should be put to rest.
We see no reason why UU should not trade on a similar dividend yield to SVT and potentially given the lower risk around the sector post review that investors may require lower yields from the sector as whole. The table below shows UU’s implied share price at differing 2010/11 dividend yields
NH
actually
NH
post this ofwat stuff
NH
I wonder if the sector might have a run
BE
Hm.
BE
UUs fell a long way on the argument that its balance sheet was too fragile post the Ofwat price review
BE
I’m not sure you can read through today’s rally to the rest of them
NH
Severn Trent up too
Severn Trent (SVT:LSE): Last: 1,151, up 24 (+2.13%), High: 1,151, Low: 1,130, Volume: 651.85k
11:30AM
NH
Okay
NH
before we look
NH
at the Gold company with the really long name
NH
shall we change tack?
BE
Sure – what do you have?
NH
Albert Edwards is in fine form this morning
BE
Isn’t he always?
NH
He’s on the warpath this time
NH
he reckons Bernanke and Merv King have been in collusion with politicians to steal income from the middle classes and hand it to the rich
BE
Blimey.
NH
Mr Bernanke’s in-house Fed economists have found that the Fed wasn’t responsible for the boom which subsequently turned into the biggest bust since the 1930s. Are those the same Fed staffers whose research led Mr Bernanke to assert in Oct. 2005 that “there was no housing bubble to go bust”?
NH
The reasons for the US and the UK central banks inflating the
bubble range from incompetence and negligence to just plain spinelessness. Let me propose an alternative thesis. Did the US and UK central banks collude with the politicians to ‘steal’ their nations’ income growth from the middle classes and hand it to the very rich?
NH
Ben Bernanke’s recent speech at the American Economic Association made me feel sick. Like Alan Greenspan, he is still in denial. The pigmies that populate the political and monetary elites prefer to genuflect to the court of public opinion in a pathetic attempt to deflect blame from their own gross and unforgivable incompetence.
NH
The US and UK have seen a huge rise in inequality over the last two decades, as growth in national income has been diverted almost exclusively to the top income earners (see chart below). The middle classes have seen median real incomes stagnate over that period and, as a consequence, corporate margins and profits have boomed. (deleted as a result)
NH
Some recent reading has got me thinking as to whether the US and UK central banks
were actively complicit in an aggressive re-distributive policy benefiting the very rich?
NH
Indeed, it has been amazing how little political backlash there has been against the
stagnation of ordinary peoples’ earnings in the US and UK. Did central banks, in creating housing bubbles, help distract middle class attention from this re-distributive policy by allowing them to keep consuming via equity extraction? The emergence of extreme inequality might never otherwise have been tolerated by the electorate (see chart below).
NH
And now the bubbles have burst, along with central banks’ credibility, what now?
NH
actually
NH
there were hints of this
NH
in his recent speech
NH
social unrest
BE
That reads more like a New Statesman column than a research note.
BE
A very well-written New Statesman column, admittedly.
BE
You got any more?
NH
yes
NH
hang on
NH
But it is clear in my mind that ordinary working people would not have tolerated these extreme
redistributive policies had not the UK and US central banks played their supporting role. Going
forward, in the absence of a sustained housing boom, labour will fight back to take its proper
(normal) share of the national cake, squeezing profits on a secular basis. For as Bill Gross
pointed out back in PIMCO’s investment outlook ‘Enough is Enough’ of August 1997, “When
the fruits of society’s labor become maldistributed, when the rich get richer and the middle
and lower classes struggle to keep their heads above water as is clearly the case today, then
the system ultimately breaks down.”- link. In Japan, low levels of inequality and inherent social
cohesion prevented a social breakdown in this post-bubble debacle. With social inequality
currently so very high in the US and the UK, it doesn’t take much to conclude that extreme
inequality could strain the fabric of society far closer to breaking point.
NH
So
NH
there you have it
NH
Society is close to breaking point
NH
I told you he was in good form
BE
You weren’t kidding.
11:35AM
NH
VP
NH
DD
NH
very funny
11:35AM
NH
CityUnslicker brings up a good point
NH
some very good news from Tullow this morning
NH
they might have found another large find
NH
another Jubilee in fact
NH
and yet…
Tullow Oil (TLW:LSE): Last: 1,337, up 12 (+0.91%), High: 1,375, Low: 1,337, Volume: 1.54m
BE
Travel and arrive?
BE
The rumour of this had been doing the rounds for a few days.
NH
true
NH
but this does seem to be a big find
NH
here’s what the Sector Watcher had to say
NH
Another day, another piece of great news out of Ghana for TLW. The Tweneboa-2 appraisal well looks very good indeed: gross is 153m, with net pay of 32 metres with improved oil/gas ratio (looking like 60:40, and improvement from the 30:70 seen before). More to come here: testing of this particular system could make it bigger than Jubilee, and much more prospectivity to be drilled in this play. So TLW keeps delivering: whilst the stock looks expensive on a core NAV type multiple, given the exploration record, it is very difficult to argue with the premium rating it achieves. See also APC US for this play – hugely undervalued relative to TLW, a screaming BUY at these levels. TLW itself continues to outperform, with more exploration catalysts than anyone else in the sector…
BE
Ok
BE
Citigroup’s Marc Kofler (not the one in Dire Straits, I assume) is a wee bit more cautious
BE
Tweneboa-2 – Tweneboa-2 has intersected a significant hydrocarbon column 6Km
southeast of the Tweneboa-1 discovery (09/03/09). The well encountered a 32m
net hydrocarbon interval comprising a 17m oil bearing zone below a 15m gascondensate
zone. The company is planning additional drilling to further evaluate
the Tweneboa discovery which lies in the Deepwater Tano block offshore Ghana
(Tullow 50% working interest).
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
Valuation impacts – Guidance on volumetrics at Tweneboa remains unchanged at
50-250-1400mmbbl (P90-P50-P10). However, Tullow has suggested the
hydrocarbon mix may be more skewed to liquids than previously thought. Prior to
today we had assumed a 33%/66% liquids/gas mix; however, the company now
believes a 60%/40% liquids/gas mix may be more appropriate. Flexing the
liquids/gas mix adds 34p to our Tullow Risked NAV.
BE
Ghana forward programme – Tweneboa-2 will be deepened to test further potential
beneath the Tweneboa field before it is suspended as a future appraisal /
development well. Tullow has collected a large amount of data from the 2 wells at
Tweneboa which it now plans to fully analyse before offering revised guidance on
volumetrics and the liquids/gas mix at Tweneboa (1-2 months). Following
completion of operations at Tweneboa, the Atwood Hunter drilling rig will move to
the West Cape Three Points block offshore Ghana (Tullow 23%) to drill the
Dahoma-1 exploration well. We anticipate more guidance on the forward
programme in Ghana at Tullow’s trading update on January 27th.
BE
Reaction – While guidance on volumetrics at Tweneboa remains unchanged, we
are encouraged by commentary from Tullow on the liquids/gas mix at what
remains a highly material prospect within Tullow’s Ghanaian portfolio.
Acknowledging this more positive hydrocarbon mix at Tweneboa adds 34p to our
Tullow Risked NAV which we increase to £13.97/sh. Tullow remains one of the
most exciting stocks in the sector however trading at less than a 5% discount to
Risked NAV, we believe the risk-reward trade-off for frontier exploration in 2010 is
more compelling elsewhere. Price target increased to £14.00/sh. Hold (2H).
NH
OK
NH
that puts things into a bit of context
NH
a lot of liquid
NH
and Tullow is expensive
NH
particularly with the Uganda deal hanging over them
NH
oh
NH
I one more not on this
NH
from house broker RBS
NH
and we will need Debbie Downers help
NH
to translate this
NH
Deep breath
NH
Tweneboa-2 delivers another differentiating drilling success: Tullow has announced this morning that the Tweneboa-2 (T-2) well on the Deepwater Tano licence (TLW 49.95%) offshore Ghana has encountered a significant hydrocarbon column, confirming the field is a major oil and gas-condensate discovery. The well intersected a 153m gross reservoir interval containing 32m of net hydrocarbon pay in two stacked reservoirs that appear to be separated by a thin layer of claystone (ie the horizons are not in communication). The upper zone contains 15m of gas-condensate bearing sands, while the lower zone contains 17m of oil bearing sand. Following the completion of logging operations, the well will be deepened to test further exploration potential, following which the well will be suspended for use in further appraisal and development. The Atwood Hunter rig will then move to drill an unnamed exploration prospect on the West Cape Three Points licence (TLW 22.9%) – see below.
NH
Our interpretation: As a recap, in March 2009 Tullow announced that the Tweneboa-1 (T-1) exploration well had encountered 21m of net sands charged with a light hydrocarbon. The resource range for the greater Tweneboa Area (containing the Owo and Ntomme channel prospects) was pegged at 50-250-1400mmboe (P90-P50-P10), while the liquids yield (based on the T-1 well) was estimated at 30-40%. The latter was a particular talking point as significant quantities of gas resources may have complicated the development process. Management are not updating guidance on the resource range post T-2, preferring to take a time to analyse the significant amount of data that will be recovered from the well (including 150m of core samples) and tie the well data to the existing 3D seismic data. This is a sensible move we believe, given the large number of uncertainties at this stage. For example, it is not yet known whether the lower oil zone or upper gas-condensate zone is (if at all) the down-dip extension of the gas discovery in T-1, while there could also feasibly be an oil leg down dip of the upper sands as well. In addition, there are no plans to test the T-2 well, and given reservoir quality in Tweneboa is not as good as that at Jubilee, there would appear to be a reasonable amount of uncertainty around recovery factors at this stage.
NH
The lack of a formal update on the resource range is unlikely, in our view, to stop the market speculating over the impact of the T-2 well. According to Tullow, the well result has come in largely in line with prognosis, and extrapolating from the mapping of the Tweneboa P50 area in Tullow’s presentations, we would estimate that the P10 estimate has risen into the 150-200mmbbls range and the P50 estimate has risen into the 350-400mmbbls range, with the P10 remaining unchanged at 1.4bn boe (we would stress that this is a largely our guesswork and not company guidance). However, the clear positive takeaway for us from the T-2 well results is that the liquids yield is estimated to have risen from 30% to 60% (of which the 60% is estimated to comprise 70% oil and 30% condensate). At this kind of level, a conceptual development involving stripping and reinjecting associated gas to maximise liquids production becomes very feasible. The oil in the lower zone is estimated around 30 degree API – ie relatively good quality.
NH

The steps from here: We assume that it will take 3-6 months for management to analyse the wealth of data that is being acquired from the T-2 well and plan for the next steps, which we believe could involve further appraisal drilling taking place in 2H10. However, we view it more likely than not that the Owo-1 exploration well (on a channel structure to the west of the T-1 and T-2 wells) will be drilled ahead of further Tweneboa appraisal drilling, with management believing that the Owo channel would yield a higher net to gross ratio of hydrocarbon bearing sands. The press release also makes note that the Atwood Hunter rig will now move to drill a well to the south east of Jubilee – this could be the first test of the multiple Turonian leads that Tullow and Anadarko have highlighted in recent investor presentations and is likely to excite the market further given the Ghana drilling success to date.
NH
Valuation impact: Given the lack of a definitive update on the Tweneboa resource range, it is difficult to gauge what impact the T-2 well has on valuations. Prior to the result, we had been including the 250mmbbls P50 estimate in our appraisal/development NAV at an NPV/boe of US$5.1/boe, which is based on averaging across a number of development concepts. This contributes around 50p/share. The difference between the 250mmboe P50 estimate and the 1.4bn boe P10 estimate was included in our exploration model, using a risk factor of 30% (effectively factoring in another c350mmboe mmboe of further resource additions), giving a risked upside of 62p (unrisked 211p). It feels like the upside case has been derisked post T-2, although our current approach reasonably reflects this we believe, and we are not inclined to aggressively derisk this number ahead of further updates. In addition, we believe that sell-side NAVs are already factoring in a relatively aggressive view of Tweneboa – to include any value for the discovery post the T-1 result we believe (like us) the sell-side would have had to assumed that T-2 came in and the liquids yield increased. This view has obviously been vindicated by the T-2 results – but given the limited information we believe it would be a premature for a wholesale derisking of the upside case at this point.
NH
Conclusion: There is little doubt that this is a significantly positive result for Tullow, in particular the higher liquids yield is a real plus given it had been our main concern after the T-1 well. It enhances an already excellent exploration track record in Africa over the past couple of years, although given relatively little is known about the Tweneboa structure, we believe its right to be realistic at this point and refrain from making large NAV upgrades. The market may be tempted to derisk the upside case now given the experience at Jubilee (where the resource range increase significantly in a short period of time) although its worth bearing in mind that within a year of the original Mahogany-1 exploration well, Tullow had drilled another two appraisal wells, tested one of them, and initiated development planning. The Tweneboa discovery could be one of Tullow’s main assets going forward, although further appraisal work and any development process is likely to be more measured.

The shares continue to trade significantly ahead of our current 1015p risked NAV including exploration upside, although we think this is justified given the company’s track record, its opportunity set (particularly in the Equatorial Atlantic) which in all likelihood will continue to attract the attention of larger peers, and last but not least, its liquidity and size advantage over its UK peers. Next Wednesday’s trading statement (27th) will be important for sentiment given it should give an update on the drilling programme for 1H10, while we should also get a decision (probably today or tomorrow) from the Ugandan government on whether it will OK Tullow’s decision to pre-empt the Heritage disposal.

NH
Phew
NH
got all that?
BE
Of course.
NH
clay zones
NH
upper zones
NH
net pay
NH
what does it all mean
NH
I need to take some sort of crash course
11:41AM
BE
Just before we leave oils ….
BE
Interesting looking note from Richard Savage at Mirabaud just dropped through
NH
(Thanks TR – we had just under 10% for the decade on the last one)
BE
Talking about the effect on Iraq on the global market
BE
Think it might be best suited to the Long Room, but here’s the gist
BE
In this FFT we take a look at the prospects for a major hike in oil production from Iraq, and its possible impact on the global oil markets. For long, Iraq has failed to live up to its potential as an oil producer, but progress in awarding licences to international oil firms accelerated through 2009. Contracts have been agreed on about ten fields to date, and recent weeks have seen Baghdad steadily make progress towards approving and signing key deals. As a result, there is a chance that the 2010s could see a big increase in Iraqi output.
BE
The deals struck over the last year cover fields with combined reserves of over 60 billion barrels and the potential to push Iraqi production capacity from 2.5 mb/d to over 12 mb/d. Were Iraq to succeed in boosting production so substantially, it would have a very significant impact on OPEC production capacity, risk upsetting the global supply-demand balance and quite possibly trigger a new bout of OPEC infighting.
NH
I knew it could last
BE
Such a rapid and substantial production hike is not entirely unprecedented – Russia managed something comparable in the 1990s, but in the case of Iraq it must be seen as highly unlikely. With a raft of challenges in the coming years, including the withdrawal of US forces, domestic elections, the ongoing disputes with the Kurdish minority and ongoing security concerns, Iraq will remain a difficult place for international oil companies to operate. And the country’s neglected oilfields and infrastructure are likely to pose real logistical and technical problems.
BE
As a result, we suggest that while new Iraqi production may come onstream in the coming decade, it is likely to do so at a much less dramatic rate. A slower ramp-up in output (currently forecast by the IEA) is likely to see Iraqi oil helping to offset increasing non-OECD demand and declining non-OPEC production, rather than flooding the markets in the near-term. As such, Iraq represents only a limited, outside threat to the current, stable, high oil price which remains supported by expectations of future tightness, if not by market fundamentals.
NH
why do we always end up in Kurdistan??
BE
Because we have to keep talking our own book, obviousy.
NH
Not
BE
(Disclaimer to the braying mob: we don’t have positions in anything. If we did, we’d be sacked.)
NH
(if we didn’t disclose it)
11:45AM
NH
Okay with that done
NH
can we stay in the resource sector
NH
because Frank is back
BE
Emoticon
NH
he has raised £80m for his latest plaything
NH
African Minerals
BE
We really need a special Frank emoticon. A pint of vodka, for example.
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
So the Evening Standard interview didn’t affect his draw for AIM investors?
NH
(JL: virtual and those positions were disclosed)
NH
it seems not
NH
but there does appear to be a twist in this financing
NH
frican Minerals Limited (AIM:AMI), the mineral exploration and development company with significant iron ore and base metal interests in Sierra Leone, West Africa, is pleased to announce that it has conditionally raised £80 million, gross, (approximately US$130 million) by way of a cash placing (the “Placing”) with institutional investors.

A total of 20,000,000 new common shares of the Company (the “New Shares”) will be underwritten at a price of 400 pence per share (the “Placing Price”).

In addition to the Placing and further to the conditional strategic agreement with China Railways Materials Commercial Corporation (“CRM”), announced by the Company on 6 January 2010 (the “CRM Agreement”), African Minerals has agreed to grant CRM an option, exercisable for 60 days from the date of this announcement, to subscribe in cash for up to 2.88 million new common shares at the Placing Price, representing approximately 14.4% of the Placing (the “CRM Option”). The CRM Option is being managed by Renaissance Capital Limited.

NH
look at the option
NH
was that announced in the first deal with the Chinese?
BE
The 2.88m new shares?
BE
Can’t remember seeing it, certainly.
NH
Commenting on the successful fund raising, Frank Timis, Executive Chairman of African Minerals, said:

“We are pleased with the continued support that premier institutional investors in North America and the United Kingdom have given the Company, which is a further endorsement of the quality of the Tonkolili project and the executive management team we have assembled at AML.

NH
That’s what Frank had to say about today
NH
and
NH
he is right
NH
a lot of blue chip institutions do back him
BE
What’s the shareholder register like in this one?
NH
OK
NH
according to Reuters
NH
which may be wrong
NH
M&G gas 13.7%
NH
Capital 10%
NH
Blackrock 7.8%
NH
JPM Asset Management – 3.8%
BE
All in for the ride, I guess.
BE
Timis has, as he likes to point out, made a lot of money for quite a few people.
BE
(Steady on Taxloss.)
NH
and it does look that warrant issue for the Chinese is new
NH
so perhaps they are annoyed
NH
that having put cash in at 500p
NH
other got some at 400p
NH
a few weeks later
NH
welcome to Frank’s World
NH
Under the terms of the Investment Agreement, CRM will subscribe for approximately 30.5 million new common shares of AML at £5.00 per share, for a cash consideration of approximately £152.6 million representing 12.5% of the enlarged issued share capital. The funds will provide the majority of the funding expected to be required for AML’s first phase of project development.
NH
The Investment Agreement, which is subject to satisfactory due diligence by CRM, is conditional on an agreed set of representations and warranties being true and accurate at the time of signing, receipt by both parties of all necessary government and regulatory consents, the long-term off-take agreements having been entered into, and there having been no material adverse event affecting AML prior to completion of the Transaction Agreement.

The parties have agreed to negotiate an Investment Agreement in good faith, with a view to its execution by 31 March 2010. Meanwhile CRM will commence due diligence on AML and the Project, a process CRM has agreed to complete by 20 February 2010. Upon completion of the Investment Agreement, CRM will be entitled to one seat on the AML Board.

NH
and of course
NH
do note
NH
this deal has not been down completed yet
11:52AM
NH
Okay
NH
a moments silence pls
BE
?
NH
from the ROTR
NH
Jessops has finally left us
NH
its gone
NH
it is no more
NH
has ceased to be
BE
Emoticon
NH
Following the Extraordinary General Meeting held earlier today, Jessops plc
(the ”Company”) announces that the following resolutions were duly passed.

Extraordinary General Meeting resolutions as per notice of Extraordinary
General Meeting:

NH
Special Resolution: That the Joint Liquidators be authorised under the
provisions of section 165 of the Insolvency Act 1986 to exercise the powers
laid down in Part 1 Schedule 4 of the Insolvency Act 1986.

As a result of the passing of the first resolution above, the Company
announces that the listing on the Official List of the UK Listing Authority of
the ordinary shares of 2.5 pence in the capital of the Company will be
cancelled with effect from 8.00 a.m. on 22 January 2010.

NH
No flowers
NH
Just puns please
BE
Actually, no puns either.
NH
thank you
NH
we really need to move
NH
and get on with our lives
NH
it’s gone
NH
and it is not coming back
NH
thank you for the tributes
11:54AM
NH
Bryce
NH
you had a couple of things for us to look at
BE
Yeah – this AstraZeneca story looks quite interesting
NH
go on
BE
Shares up 61p at £31.14 last I checked
BE
After its house broker said there was no point spending money on developing drugs in-house any more
NH
(alloy – no we chased that yesterday. could not get anywhere)
NH
really
NH
I know there pipeline has been very poor
NH
but surely
NH
that’s a bit extreme for a drug company
BE
Not according to Morgan Stanley
BE
Analyst Andrew Baum reckons that’s the way the whole industry’s headed
BE
But AstraZeneca may as well go first
BE
As its head of R&D and “Discovery” have both walked recently
NH
how many people do they employee?
BE
R&D has 12,000 people across eight countries, apparently
NH
And the idea is that they shut all this down?
BE
Yup
BE
He’s arguing it doesn’t make sense to pay for your own research
BE
you may as well lower the risks by outsourcing
BE
we argue that the industry can materially improve mid-term EPS and create shareholder
value by exiting research in small molecules (~40% total R&D spend) and reinvesting in in-licensed drugs or alternative asset classes (biologics, consumer health) or returning cash to shareholders. This strategy forms the final building block of our Pharma 2.0 model for the industry. We see AZN as the most likely candidate for near-term adoption of this strategy, given generic pressures and management changes
BE
On current market economics, we estimate that $1 invested in in-licensed compounds will on average deliver 3x times as much value as $1 invested in in-house research.
BE
And the idea is that AstraZeneca will be first to put the shutters down, given its record with research is appalling anyway.
BE
Dr Baum thinks there might be a stategy announcement at next week’s full-year results.
NH
this is the ultimate outsource
NH
Got the note?
BE
Yeah – and a policically sensitive one, I’d wager.
BE
Here’s thesummary page of his AZ upgrade
BE
We believe AstraZeneca can generate higher EPS,
dividend yield and FCF than the market discounts.
Lack of confidence in AZN’s internal R&D has kept us
Equal-weight on the stock. We now move to Overweight
for two key reasons: 1) Our new base case is that AZN
withdraws from internal small-molecule research (~40%
R&D) and reallocates up to $1bn/year to in-licensed
assets, boosting EPS, ROIC and Economic Value
Added. Our 2014e earnings are now 13.5% ahead of
consensus; 2) We expect US prescriptions for Crestor to
pick up sharply following likely FDA approval for the
expanded label in 1Q 2010.
BE
Our proprietary modeling points to a threefold
increase in Economic Value Added under a
search-and-discovery model (see our companion
report, Pharmaceuticals: Exit Research and Create
Value). We expect internal research to shrink across the
industry, but see AZN as a first mover, given its
continued pipeline failure and recent departures of
senior R&D management. Our forecasts and PT now
assume $2.6bn incremental EBIT in 2014e from: 1)
in-licensed products; 2) R&D 10% below consensus;
3) elevated Brilinta and Crestor forecasts following
opinion-leader feedback; and 4) higher gross margins.
The dividend yield is an attractive 5.5%, barring early
entry of Crestor generics.
BE
What are we looking for to confirm our thesis?
Small-molecule research plant closures, further
in-licensing deals, and termination or partnerships of
high-risk, low-return phase II assets (AZD0837,
AZD1305). Key risks to our thesis include the threat from
generics to the Crestor patent, Seroquel liabilities, and
the pace at which management pursues any
internal-research downsizing.
BE
And it’s worth noting that none of the other brokers seem to be talking about this.
BE
All the preview notes for AZ’s figures are focusing on 2010 guidance, Crestor patent risk and the chances of a new share buyback
NH
interesting
NH
very interesting
NH
Glaxo
NH
of course
NH
have sort hived off their R&D into subsids
NH
so they can focus
NH
this is more extreme
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:LSE): Last: 1,305, up 21.75 (+1.69%), High: 1,309, Low: 1,286, Volume: 3.82m
BE
Sanofi, I think, has also cut the internal R&D budget by about 30%
12:00PM
BE
Anything else caught your eye, Neil?
NH
Taylor Wipeout
Taylor Wimpey (TW:LSE): Last: 41.15, up 0.92 (+2.29%), High: 42.00, Low: 40.77, Volume: 11.30m
NH
this story in the Telegraph
NH
that they might IPO their US business
NH
which of course
NH
would be really good for debt levels
NH
in fact
NH
if true
NH
it would wipe out debt
NH
although a couple of brokers aren’t sure about the figures
NH
Taylor Wimpey (TW/) TP 32p SELL. There are reasonably sensible rumours in the Telegraph that the group has appointed JP Morgan Caz to dispose of its North American business via an IPO. The mooted market cap to be $1bn (£617m). My view wound be that the business is not worth that much unless this was an enterprise value figure. On any sale, a proportion of funds raised would have to be devoted to plugging the £290m (net) hole in the pension fund. This would on balance be positive news if true but it is a long from delivery.

NH
That was from Matrix
12:02PM
NH
I will come to Gold company with the long name in a moment
NH
before that
NH
for Tomkins followers
NH
this came out of MOST today
NH
Earnings upgrade driven by top-line recovery and
cost savings — something we think the market
underestimates. We are upgrading our F2009 forecast
for Tomkins on higher sales in 2H09 driven by a
snapback in Auto demand. Operational leverage should
help margins improve substantially, especially in
Industrial & Automotive. Group margins should also
benefit from restructuring measures, the bulk of which
were implemented in 2H09. We expect group adjusted
profit margins to improve from 4.1% in 1H09 to 7.5% in
2H09. While we are in-line with consensus earnings for
F2009, we remain ~10% ahead for F2010. The
earnings revision drives our price target to 250p.
NH
Valuation attractive, bull case offers 70% upside:
The stock now trades on 10.8x C2011 P/E, 7.9x
EV/EBITA and 0.7x EV/Sales – a discount to historical
NTM valuations of 12.4x P/E. With earnings momentum
and F2009 results on 1 March as the catalyst, we would
be owners of this name. Our bull case assumes 11%
long-term margins (closer to management expectations).
Further, if the ‘green’ stimulus spend helps
non-residential construction to surprise on the upside,
we see Tomkins moving to our bull case of 350p,
implying 70% upside from current levels. With 40%
downside to our bear case of 125p, we think this stock
offers a compelling risk-reward profile.
NH
Tomkins is our top pick in the UK Engineering
space. Across the sector, we would be owners of
early-cycle names with earnings momentum (Tomkins)
or late-cycle names that could benefit from improving
order flow over the coming quarters (Invensys). We
prefer to remain out of fully valued plays with less scope
for earnings revisions (Smiths Group).
Tomkins (TOMK:LSE): Last: 199.80, down 1.7 (-0.84%), High: 203.80, Low: 198.70, Volume: 1.41m
NH
and at the same time
NH
MOST have cut Smiths Group
NH
We downgrade Smiths to Underweight as we think the resilience and margin expansion potential
of its portfolio is now widely acknowledged by the market. Nevertheless, we raise our F2010
earnings by 14% to incorporate higher growth in Detection and continued margin expansion in
Medical. These upgrades, coupled with a permanent reduction in the US defined benefit pension
scheme, drive our price target up to 1,000p. At C2011e 12x P/E, 10.5x EV/EBIT, 1.8x EV/Sales,
we see the shares as fully valued for a defensive portfolio. With little scope for further earnings
revisions and a relatively full multiple, we think the stock will undershoot more cyclical and
leveraged plays on the recovery – we prefer Overweight-rated Tomkins or Invensys.
12:04PM
NH
Okay
NH
Petropav what ever its name is
Petropavlovsk (POG:LSE): Last: 1,065, up 38 (+3.70%), High: 1,094, Low: 1,039, Volume: 1.06m
NH
loads of comment around
BE
Ok then. If we must.
NH
I will just select a few pieces
NH
to keep Manu happy
NH
oh no
NH
Notes malfuction
NH
there is a note we get from Investec Securities everyday
NH
and if you land on it
NH
while doing a search
NH
Epic fail
NH
Bryce
NH
can you help me out
NH
while I reboot
BE
Yeah – sure
NH
I have a white screen of death now
NH
urghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
BE
While we wait for you to restart, here’s Citigroup on the Artist Formerly Known As Peter Hambro
BE
Good Report Card — With the Pokrovskiy mining plan being rescheduled to
accommodate remedial work in Q4, we had expected lower production than POG
has delivered. Full-year attributable production of 486.8k oz compared to our
forecast of 460k oz attributable and 484k oz consolidated. POG had guided to a
460k-510k range but had intimated that the upper end of that range would be
achieved. Costs were in line with the group’s forecast.
 Positive 2010 Guidance — Our forecast for 2010 production has been for 616k oz
attributable followed by 782k oz attributable in 2011. However, POG has today
guided towards a quicker build-up than that, with production expected to be
between 670k and 760k in 2010 already.
BE
Projects — The start-up of the 3rd milling line at Pokrovsky has been accelerated
from 2H10 to 1H10. Malomir start-up remains on for 2H10 and Albyn is still on
track for the end of 2011.
 Credibility Improved — The key challenge for management has been to rebuild
credibility over the company’s growth prospects. The current report card goes a
long way towards achieving that, in our view. Upside remains from ongoing
delivery of growth and optionality from the iron ore assets.
 Prefer Bulks to Gold — While POG is looking increasingly attractive on a stockspecific
basis, we are not seeing the action in the gold price that we have seen in
the likes of copper, iron ore and coal. Gold’s credit-crisis support is waning as is
its support from weakening dollar (with the dollar recently quite strong). These
factors dominate our thinking on the gold stocks and we rate POG at Hold/High
Risk (2H).
NH
Back. Notes is working again
NH
here’s Liberum
NH
Petropavlovsk – Buy – Q4 09 IMS – a beat on 2009 production and reassures on 2010 – should assuage concerns following December’s -6% production downgrade to 470koz – actual 2009 production was 487koz (+4% beat to Dec’s guidance) & we question whether Dec’s unnerving statement was actually required! Fears over significant production downgrades to 2010 are unwarranted as the com guides towards 670-760koz, respectively only -2% & -1% off previous lower & upper range of 2010 guidance (689-769koz). In unexpected & major positive for an IMS statement, co announces it is resuming divis, with interim divi of 7p/share payable on 9 Mar 2010 for shareholders on register on 5 Feb. No final dividend being paid for 09. Until further details are provided on project scheduling we retain our 2010 forecasts at 700koz (reduced from 719koz in Dec). POG is trading on exceptionally cheap 9.9x PE in 2010 & 9x in 2011 (at spot US$1,111/oz) & we view today’s reassuring update as compelling buying opportunity. We calculate NAV at £7.98/shr (at US$1,000/oz) & estimate fair value between £11.97/shr & £15.96/shr based on 1.5-2.0x NAV
NH
and
BE
(nick1212: to sound more Russian. Honestly.)
NH
Arbuthnot
NH
Petropavlovsk has beaten the company’s downgraded production guidance by 3.5%, achieving 486.8koz, up 21% on 2008. Despite a pit wall failure at Pokrovskiy, the mine produced 7% above the company’s forecast for the year, in-line with last year’s production. Pioneer’s start up of the second processing line in H2 assisted the total production increase, achieving 234koz, 6% below the company’s forecast, but up 55% YoY. The company’s own and Joint-Ventured alluvial operation produced 62.6koz (Attributable) in line with guidance and last year’s production. Petropavlovsk has declared an interim dividend of 7p per share, while also announcing the development schedule is being ramped up with the third mill at Pioneer now scheduled for commissioning to H1 2010, swapping with Malomir (now H2) whist Albyn remains on track. The Group’s attributable production for 2010 is currently expected to be between 670,000oz and 760,000oz, in line with previous guidance. We currently carry no recommendation on the company.
12:08PM
NH
Okay
NH
it is past midday
NH
and I think we are done
NH
Goldman results our soon
NH
I have a lunch
NH
at Wright’s Oyster House
NH
in Borough Market
BE
Nice. Good spot that.
NH
where a couple of the dishes are named after FT employees
BE
Although the market’s operational today, so take your cattle prod.
NH
oh
NH
and I almost forgot
NH
can any of the ROTR help me
NH
Does anyone know who is top of the Premier League at the moment?
NH
EmoticonEmoticon
BE
……….. Kleinmanwire reporting that Goldman’s capping bonuses for London staff, apparently.
NH
interesting
BE
Just getting the website
NH
Frog – neither of those
NH
keep going
BE
Goldman Sachs is likely to respond to the Government’s tax on bank bonuses by imposing a one-year cap on payouts to its London-based staff, I have learned.

The Wall Street firm, which reports its full-year results in a couple of hours’ time, is on the verge of deciding to introduce the bonus ceiling in order to reduce its exposure to the Bank Payroll Tax announced in the Chancellor’s Pre-Budget Report last month.

BE
The cap will not be announced as part of Goldman’s earnings release today since staff in London and elsewhere will not begin to be informed about their annual bonuses until the beginning of next week. Even then, the bank will not voluntarily disclose its decision to single out London-based employees.

But my understanding is that a bonus cap (assuming Goldman does not reverse its current thinking) will constitute a number which while astronomical by the standards of what most of us earn in a typical year, will at Goldman represent an attempt to curb some of the astronomical payouts earned by hundreds of its London-based staff in a typical year.

NH
so cap this year
BE
http://blogs.news.sky.com/kleinman/Post:c75e15fe-1280-46dc-8317-15327fff5e93
NH
double it next
NH
is that the idea
NH
good bit of PR though
BE
Yeah – as stories go, that one’s a bit of a damp squid.
BE
And, on that, I’m sending myself off. Straight red.
BE
Goodbye.
NH
(yes Pakora that was a bad tackle)
NH
yes that was poor
NH
almost Monkey like in its awfulness
NH
annd with that
NH
we are off
NH
thanks for logging in
NH
and see you tomorrow
NH
bye
NH
(Tuna enjoy while it lasts)
NH
and some breaking news
NH
after being threatened with losing the ThamesLink franchise
NH
by Lord Adonis
NH
FirstGroup
FirstGroup (FGP:LSE): Last: 383.30, down 1.3 (-0.34%), High: 386.70, Low: 381.80, Volume: 587.59k
NH
have replied
NH
RTRS-FIRSTGROUP SAYS FIRST CAPITAL CONNECT IS OPERATING A NORMAL SERVICE ON ITS THAMESLINK ROUTE
NH
not sure that will be enough to save them
NH
Thameslink has been shambles this winter
NH
(Taxloss – we won’t win the title. not strong enough at the back)
NH
right we must go
NH
cya tomorrow
BE
Bye.
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