Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 18 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder
NH
and welcome to Markets Live
NH
hit the button by mistake
NH
FT Alphaville’s puntastic markets discussion forum
NH
enough of the plesantries
NH
where’s International Power trading at the moment?
BE
We’re up 13.9p at 335.9p.
NH
(Tuna – reverse indicator)
NH
the two companies are discussing a joint venture/partnership deal for the operations outside of their domestic markets
BE
but some people are still dreaming of +400p bid
BE
and a JV would have merit
BE
not sure what it would be worth but IPR is strategically a bit boxed in
BE
and don’t forget the shares are well off their earlier highs
NH
they hit 351p this morning
NH
mainly because the sales desk at Merrill Lynch were telling everyone an announcement was imminent
NH
The UK press (The Times and The Guardian) is talking again about a possible offer from GDF for International Power. According to the articles, GDF is talking to IPR and has approval from the French government.
NH
The FSA will probably insist that IPR issues a statement this morning before the market opens in response to the specific media speculation. We expect it will confirm the existence of talks and that these may result in an offer being made for the company.
BE
Hm. Bold call that. Bold and wrong.
BE
I thought it was the Takeover Panel that forced statements
BE
anyway, can we see some more of that note?
NH
Strategic fit- We have always argued that the fit between GDF (Ex Tractebel) and IPR portfolio was excellent. In the US, both groups are active in the same states (Texas, New England etc), in the Middle East both have a strong exposure to power/desalination plants and in the UK IPR’s generation assets would align with GDF’s recent ambitions to enter the UK power market. Elsewhere in Europe, IPR ‘s exposure to Italy, Spain and Portugal also fit with GDF’s existing asset portfolio, including 1260MW of wind assets (mostly in Italy). Finally, both groups are exposed to Asia and although the asset mix is slightly different, an integration would still make sense in our view.
NH
Price and financing- we believe GDF has the balance sheet to make such a move. Assuming an offer at 400p (a 22% premium but a 40% premium to the pre rumour price), the total cost would be £11.3bn (including group debt), or €12.5bn plus assumption of £1.6bn of JV/associate debt. Considering consensus EBITDA forecasts of £1.22bn for next year, that would put GDF leverage to 2.5x compared to 2x now. Even with such a premium and without synergies the deal would EPS accretive by about 5-7% in 2010.
NH
We are surprised by the rumours that the deal could be partly share financed. With perhaps more than 40% of IPR in the hands of UK funds, we think a share offer is unlikely to be successful. We also think that part of the accretion would be lost and flow back would be important. GDF has the balance sheet to make an all cash deal and should proceed that way, in our view. Regarding the price, we continue to believe that GDF will seek the approval of IPR ‘s board and we would not be surprised to see a decent premium being paid. Every 10% premium offered represents €550m, or less than 1% of GDF market cap, so the price will not be a problem for GDF ultimately, if they really want IPR.
NH
We would welcome such a deal, thinking it makes sense from both a strategic and financial standpoint and see operational synergies between the two companies. However, in the short term, and with the rumours of a partly share financed deal, we doubt GDF will perform well.
BE
But what do we think happens now?
NH
there won’t be a statement unless the Listing Authority puts pressure on IPR to say something
BE
and you think they will?
NH
they are not as proactive as the Takeover Panel about these things
NH
as we have seen many times in the past
NH
but there should be a statement
NH
because this would be a material deal
BE
instead we just “sources familiar with the situation” whispering things on Reuters
NH
RTRS-GDF SUEZ IN TALKS WITH INTERNATIONAL POWER ON POSSIBLE ASSET SWAP, NO TIMEFRAME FOR DEAL – SOURCE
BE
that’s not very satisfactory, is it?
NH
but come on we are all grown ups here
NH
we all know companies only say something when they want to
NH
and can usually find some legal loophole if they don’t want to say anything
NH
it’s the way the game is played
NH
IPR shares coming off now
NH
the penny is begging to drop
BE
yes, although if people had read Lina’s piece today
BE
they would never have bid the price up to 350p
NH
(Mungers they are PR people. Internal/external


)
NH
and technically 328p is a big level for IPR
NH
Below that it could sell off
BE
Ok – should we move on now?
NH
a good one this from Evo Securities
NH
There are fundamental strategic reasons behind GDF Suez’ interest in International Power.
In terms of the easily quantifiable cost savings, we only see group overhead savings – we value group overhead at -30p.
The IPR business is easily assimilated as it is a series of stand-alone projects with non-recourse funding, so very little cost involved in taking them over.
Additionally we include in our valuation a penalty of 20p for poor disclosure on JV/assocs (we introduced this in our May note – p27).
Also we stopped including a value addition from future new projects due to credit market conditions (mainly Middle East, resulting from IPR’s very strong competitive position in the region).
In 2008 this value premium was 75p in our valuation.
NH
Assuming GDF Suez has better information on JV/assocs, and assuming cost savings from overhead removal we can get to 370p from our 320p price target.
Add in future project potential in the Middle East, plus (unquantifiable) strategic benefits for UK and US assets and we easily get to above 400p.
In fact we would say 400p would be a steal for GDF Suez – and the main reason is the poor formal reporting on International Power operations which does not allow the market to properly value or understand the assets (see pp26-28 in the section “Financial Disclosure Needs to Improve” in our May note “Living With De-Leveraging” for a rant on this).
NH
These bid rumours could very likely pressure IPR to move on dividend announcements faster than we anticipate – ie revise dividend policy to the 50% payout we have been arguing they should move to.”
NH
IPR current growth strategy in disarray because of market conditions.
NH
The current market view of IPR is an EPS momentum, growth play with 40% payout. A major reason for the price weakness in recent months has been caused by faltering EPS expectations (significantly down in down in 2010 due to Czech assets sales) and poor US performance. We believe IPR is no longer a growth play, with limited opportunities in merchant markets. We believe IPR needs to reposition itself as a yield play. It needs to say it has no further merchant growth aspirations, boost DPS payout to 50% in 2010, maintaining DPS growth, which it can easily do, due to its strong cash flow. We believe that the company will be drawn inexorably to the same conclusions as us (at least on payout), and have boosted our payout ratio assumption to 50%, despite current policy being 40%.
NH
It looks like IPR to survive needs to do this sooner rather than later.
BE
(Munger – just to be clear anyone “familiar with the situation” who’s speaking to a newswire is a flak. They’re communicating a message from their paymasters, but they’re a flak nonetheless.)
NH
annd have a look at the wider market
NH
and good to see the Ian Bell debate won’t die down
BE
And I have no thoughts on the Ian Bell debate.
BE
Risers are banks, miners, bit of retail …. but not much of a trend.
NH
and not on the downside either
NH
what shall we lool at?
NH
A world that’s more riot than profession, the trading floors of Chicago are a place where gambling your family’s mortgage is all in a day’s work. Now, when markets are unhinged, FLOORED offers a unique window to this lesser-known world of finance. Traders may not have degrees, but they’ve got guts, and penchant for excess. But like many aspects of our economy, technology is changing their business, and these eccentric pit denizens aren’t the type to take kindly to new tricks.
NH
“The biting of the nose and the fights, sure, when you’re throwing around that kind of money, people tend to lose it sometimes,” said Doug Pringle, 42, who traded corn, soybeans, 10- year Treasury notes and 30-year bonds for 17 years. “I miss the excitement.”
BE
Just looking at the trailer on Youtube.
BE
Looks entertaining, if a bit Louis Theroux.
NH
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) — Doug Pringle saw punches thrown, blood spilled and fortunes lost during his 17-year career at the Chicago Board of Trade. He misses it, every day.
“The biting of the nose and the fights, sure, when you’re throwing around that kind of money, people tend to lose it sometimes,” said Pringle, 42, who traded corn, soybeans, 10- year Treasury notes and 30-year bonds. “I miss the excitement.”
Chicago’s open-outcry nostalgists can now watch their slow- motion obituary on film. “Floored,” a documentary that premieres in the city tonight, captures the fading swagger of its exchange pits as electronic trading takes over.
Traders and former traders in the film recount drug-fueled road trips with prostitutes, living in mansions, and a crash that included divorce and having to take a $400-a-week job.
BE
Ok – that’s enough puff for that. We’ve hopefully done enough to get an invite to the UK premier.
NH
yep, the opening night pls
NH
some of the ROTR asking
NH
this has just popped up
NH
DJ Standard Life: Kraft Needs To Pay Over 900P For Cadbury
BE
Shares up 12.5p at 806.5p
NH
expected Kraft to announce a raised offer this morning
NH
and it is Martin Luther King day
NH
so perhaps they will wait
NH
but in spite of what Standard Life say
NH
I guess 850p would get it
BE
Deadline’s tomorrow, isn’t it?
NH
and I guess Hershey wait to see if they can match it
NH
which I don’t think they can above 830p
NH
Standard Life does not own much CBRY
NH
so they are not really that important
BE
Did you see the Stitzer interview in the Telegraph this morning?
BE
Saying the stock “could” hit a tenner as an independent.
NH
yeah, of course it COULD
BE
But throwing figures around seems like making a rod for his own back.
NH
only if he really believes the company is going to remain independent
BE
It’s all to do with hitting the 2013 profit margin target.
BE
Which is the focus. “We don’t care about this Kraft stuff,” to paraphrase.
NH
Right, thanks for that
NH
we can’t avoid it for much longer
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP:LSE): Last: 98.50, up 0.5 (+0.51%), High: 98.50, Low: 93.00, Volume: 1.81m
NH
Now, there has been some news out of Kurdistan today
NH
which on the face of it
Sterling Energy PLC (SEY:LSE): Last: 173.00, down 1.75 (-1.00%), High: 174.00, Low: 170.25, Volume: 163.19k
Heritage Oil (HOIL:LSE): Last: 525.50, up 11.5 (+2.24%), High: 528.00, Low: 506.00, Volume: 1.19m
NH
and all those others Kurdish play
NH
especially DNO in Norway
NH
which are up around 15% at themoment
NH
which went up on the KRG.org site
NH
Iraq Kurds want to resolve oil row
The government of Iraqi Kurdistan said it wanted to reach an amicable agreement with the Baghdad government over the sharing of oil revenue so it could resume exporting crude.
NH
In a statement responding to a call from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to settle a dispute between Iraq’s Arabs and Kurds over the country’s oil wealth, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) said it was considering publishing contracts it has signed with foreign oil companies.
NH
“The KRG is willing to enter a serious dialogue about the subject, and we are willing completely and in the interest of the Iraqi people to renew exports of crude from KRG fields at a level of no less than 100,000 barrels per day,” it said.
The statement added that the Kurdish regional authorities hoped to boost output to 200,000 barrels per day this year and attain an output capacity of 1 million bpd within the next four years.
Iraq’s Kurdish region is believed to be rich with oil reserves but development has been stalled by disagreement between the Arab-led government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish authorities over revenue.
BE
Do you have a link to the statement?
NH
and here are some figures
NH
a. Although the initial oil production will begin with 100,000 barrels per day, it will increase gradually and continuously to 1,000,000 barrels per day within five years from now.
b. The anticipated revenue that the Federal Government will receive from the oil production of the Kurdistan Region during the coming five years from 2010 to 2014 will be: $2.75 billion (2010), $8.23 billion (2011), $12.45 billion (2012), $18.27 billion (2013), and $25.62 billion (2014). The total cost compensation of the companies contracted in the Region for the same period will be: $1.4 billion (2010), $0.9 billion (2011), $1.05 (2012), $1.2 (2013), and $1.4 (2014). This illustrates that the Federal Government (Ministry of Finance) will receive in total more than $67 billion as net revenue from the oil produced by companies contracted in the Region in the coming five years. In return, less than $6 billion in costs will be paid to these companies.
c. By 2015 the total revenue will be more than $27 billion per year, with a cost compensation of $1.5 billion per year to the companies involved.
NH
GKP have not rallied more
NH
I have some theories, but none that I want to share
NH
and as people are BORED WITH GKP
NH
which is perhaps the biggest insult one could make to the GKP Liberation Front
NH
But we should have a quick look at Heritage after the Tullow deal
BE
Yup – pre-emption rights exercised, as expected.
NH
but does this actually mean anything?
BE
For Heritage, not really.
BE
Tullow’s locked the same terms as Eni agreed.
BE
But for Tullow, it is a bit more interesting.
NH
how are they going to fund it?
NH
and didn’t i read there is something in the small print that says
NH
they can’t farm out any of these assets for a couple of years
BE
Hm. That’s interesting.
BE
Anyway, we can cut to some comment on this.
BE
Valuing the assets in Uganda remains a complicated process as the
fiscal terms remain confidential and remaining exploration and appraisal upside in
the region makes it difficult to take a firm view on resource size. Assuming our
$80/bbl long-term oil price assumption, we value a 50% interest in Blocks 1 and
3A at $2bn (360mmbbl discovered, with +600mmbbl upside). This compares to
the $1.5bn Eni offer price and an independent mineral expert’s valuation of
$1.6bn ($65/bbl long-term oil price). The read-across from the $1.5bn offer price
implies a 6-8% haircut to our Tullow Risked NAV of £13.65/sh.
BE
Next Steps – At this stage, the next key date appears to be 25 January when
Heritage shareholders are due to vote on the sale and purchase agreement.
Receipt of the necessary approvals from the Ugandan government is still
outstanding with Heritage stating this morning that the Ugandan government is
keen to wrap-up this process in 1Q 2010.
Reaction – Tullow is in the process of reducing its equity in Uganda with the
company guiding to end-February 2010 completion. The decision to exercise the
pre-emption rights over Heritage’s assets in Blocks 1 and 3A clearly signals the
company’s belief that it can maximize value in this farm-down process by owning
100% of the equity across Blocks 1, 2 and 3A in the region. Acknowledging
increased development risk, this appears logical in our view.
BE
A good deal… but half a deal
BE
Event – Pre-emption makes sense for both Tullow and Uganda, however it
is only half a deal and the group now appears set to retain 50% across all
blocks; twice our earlier assumption/guidance.
Detail – Tullow has exercised its pre-emption rights in Uganda re the proposed
purchase by Eni of Heritage’s 50% interests in Blocks 1 & 3A. The
$1.35bln cash consideration (with a further contingent, deferred element of
$150m cash or an interest in a producing oil field of equivalent value) will be
funded via a syndicate of Tullow’s core relationship banks. Ugandan government
approval is required, but potential farm-down partners have been
pre-agreed.
BE
Analysis – Given the cost/logistical complexity of Lake Albert’s development,
pre-emption makes perfect sense for both Tullow and Uganda. However,
it is only half a deal; Tullow’s long-term strategy having been to farmdown
half its Ugandan interests to a third party/parties. Successful preemption
and farm-down would allow Tullow to equalise asset ownership
across the 3 licences under one operator, bringing in greater downstream/
export pipeline expertise. We value 50% of blocks 1 and 3A at $2bln ($85/
bbl long-run Brent; falling to $1.5bln at $69/bbl Brent). Uganda forms 22%
of risked total NAV (339p of 1467p), however tough fiscal terms mean that
each bbl’s NPV (c$4) is less than half that in Ghana (44% of total NAV, 685p).
We look for a speedy move to bring in a third party to Uganda so that Tullow
can re-intensify its focus on development and exploration.
BE
Conclusion – Today’s news is well flagged and logical, however we consider
that the real differentiator of value will be the terms on which Tullow
brings in third parties. Tullow targets government approval in the 1st week
in February.
Tullow Oil (TLW:LSE): Last: 1,355, up 16 (+1.19%), High: 1,372, Low: 1,346, Volume: 1.37m
NH
all about the farm out deals then
NH
will be interesting to see this development
NH
I have a bit of City RAW
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
Evolution have built a large fixed income business
NH
but it seems the guy headed to run it
NH
Guy Cornelius is Head of Fixed Income. Prior to joining Evolution in November 2008, Guy was the Head of European Senior Client Relationship Management at Lehman Brothers, where he was responsible for many of the Firm’s largest clients, especially asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds. Previously Guy spent 11 years at UBS, latterly as Head of Fixed Income Sales for Europe and Middle East, and served on the European Management Committee and acted as a Trustee of the UBS (UK) Pension Scheme. He has also held senior roles in credit sales at BZW and SG Warburg.
NH
going to Nomura apparently
NH
for a package worth over £2m
NH
this is all rumoured of course
NH
some discussion on Sir Fred’s new job
BE
The Times can reveal that Sir Fred, blamed for the near collapse of RBS before it was rescued by a £20 billion taxpayer bailout, started as a senior adviser to RMJM, the world’s fifth largest architecture firm, before Christmas.
BE
RMJM’s projects include the Scottish Parliament building, the Dubai International Convention Centre and the Beijing Olympic Green Convention Centre.
BE
Scottish Parliament’s a dreadful building.
BE
And cost about 5x the initial budget.
NH
hang on isn’t this the same Morrison who sold his business to one of the big utility companies
NH
and then there was an almighty legal row
BE
Dunno – don’t remember that.
NH
this from the Sunday Times
NH
Their friendship dates back to Goodwin’s days at Clydesdale bank, where he was chief executive for three years until 1998. Morrison was a non-executive director there.
NH
After Goodwin left for RBS, Morrison became involved in controversy over £15m of undeclared loans from Clydesdale that had been made to companies where he had a substantial interest. He was cleared of any wrongdoing.
NH
In 2003, he was sued by Anglian Water for £130m over the sale of his family’s construction business to the water firm in 2000 for £236m. Anglian claimed the price was too high and based on an inflated order book. Morrison said that the assertions were “preposterous”. The case was settled on the steps of the High Court — the size of the payout was never disclosed.
BE
He has “previous” then.
BE
And wasn’t Fred at Clydesdale?
NH
This is not the first time Morrison, who made his millions in construction, has come to Goodwin’s aid. He helped Goodwin and his family find refuge in a mansion on the French Riviera after his Edinburgh home was attacked by credit-crunch protesters last year.
NH
and he has been hiding Fred
NH
according to this report
NH
they are the biggest faller in the FTSE 100
British Sky Broadcasting (BSY:LSE): Last: 563.00, down 10.5 (-1.83%), High: 574.50, Low: 562.00, Volume: 2.60m
BE
The good old “BT competitive threat” story was given another run in the weekend press.
NH
is this on the Sky Sports Ofcom ruling
NH
BT will be able to offer the package for £15 a month
NH
not £25 + all the other stuff you have to take
BE
Got a lot of play over the weekend – suggesting BT’s PR people are rather more efficient than their engineers.
BE
Anyway, got some comment from Execution on this.
BE
Several press reports over the weekend have highlighted that BT is
planning discount Sky Sports content very heavily to BT Vision
customers. Sky charges £25.50 for Sky Sports 1 and £34.50 for all four
channels and the reports have indicated that BT is considering a price
point in the region of £15 per month for Sports.
NH
I think Sky is v expensive
NH
and you don’t even get Sky Player for fee
NH
unless you subscribe to that multi room thing
NH
could end up costing £70 a month
BE
Hm. And Jock football’s now equally split between Sky Sports and ESPN, so it costs about £30 a month just to see the odd game.
BE
Anyway, back to Execution’s note ….
BE
BT must be relying heavily on the outcome of the Ofcom Pay-TV review
to make these claims. It would require wholesale price cuts that are more
severe than Ofcom’s proposed 11% to 30% if it is to offer this content at
this price without incurring a significant loss on each package sold. Even
if the Pay-TV review were to impose a 30% price reduction on Sky we
think it unlikely that BT would be able to generate a positive margin at
such a price; BT would be effectively subsidising Sky content in a bid to
capture market share. We’re not even sure that BT would be permitted
to loss lead in this way. That said without aggressive pricing we think it
will be impossible for BT to capture any significant share on BT vision.
We see the product as inferior to both Sky and Virgin Media and note
that it will also put a very heavy strain on BT’s infrastructure necessitating
further investment in Fibre.
BE
Virgin Media has not yet indicated what it will do with pricing for Sky
content post the pay-TV review preferring to wait for the final ruling. If
the reductions are in the 30% range then Virgin Media will also be able to
discount this content
BE
We have a SELL rating on BT with a fair value of £1.15, a HOLD rating
on BSKYB with a fair value of £5.60, and a BUY rating on Virgin Media
with a fair value of £17.50.
NH
Anymore thoughts on this
NH
Note: BT are claiming they will be able to offer Sky Sports for £15 a month
BE
Hang on – Internet playing up, somewhat inevitably.
BE
Few quick bullet points from RBS ….
BE
A FEW THOUGHTS
- We believe SKY will appeal any negative outcome and likely get stay on pricing
- There is also a chance that OFCOM will simply delay on a final ruling again from March
(current timetable) till after the UK election
- Sky has c6m of its 9.5m subs taking Sky Sports 1. The risk of them churning could be small
as the majority of these take Sky Sports 2 & 3 as well and would be unlikely to move if BT
only offers Sky Sports 1 (i.e. only Premier League football).
- Homes which couldn’t or wouldn’t take satellite dishes could now get Sky Sports 1 via BT,
which will be incremental wholesale revenue for Sky.
We remain buyers of Sky and would see any negativity around this news as an opportunity to
BUY as we think the company remains well positioned to benefit from the stickiness of TV
and its leadership in technology such as 3D TV.
BE
Sky still cheaper than BT
The Sunday Telegraph states BT is looking to retail Sky Sports 1 from £15 per
month. However, we believe the £15 per month charge would be only available to
BT Vision subscribers taking a BT broadband connection from £15.99 per month
meaning the all-in cost would be >£30.99 per month compared to £27 for an
equivalent triple play package from Sky.
BE
Process to be further drawn out?
The report states OFCOM is meeting this Tuesday to decide on the review, but that
a decision is unlikely to be published until end of March. We expect Sky to appeal
any result. Should the process drag on beyond the general election, we believe a
more friendly Conservative government could effectively end the review.
BE
A window of further opportunity. Sky’s PT based on DCF
We believe competition in the medium-term may be increasing (BT, VMED,
Project Canvas). That said, near-term trading at Sky is likely to be robust and we
believe Sky has a 12 month window to extend its leadership and differentiate itself
with the pending launch of its 3-D channel and VOD service. Sky trades on 16x
annualised 2010E EPS but offers 20% pa EPS growth over the next 3 years.
NH
I suspect there are too many vested interests in this
NH
the big clubs are not going to vote for anything that hits their revenue
NH
most are up to the eyeballs in debt
NH
imagine if they broke away
NH
it would end up costing more
BE
Right – that’s enough of that.
NH
Bryce has got something to say on Autonomu
NH
it is not another sell note
NH
about all the corporate guff they keep polluting RNS with
NH
and apparently it is not their fault
BE
Well — not * entirely * their fault.
BE
Autonomy contest that their regular flow of nonsensical press releases do not come out on RNS …..
NH
and very annoying it is too
BE
Yeah – you and everyone else.
BE
But there’s a little-used service called RNS-Reach, which seems to be the exchange’s attempt at eating PR Newswire’s lunch.
NH
this is designed for mindless corporate puff?
BE
Exactly – and very few companies actually use it.
NH
so how can I turn it off
NH
I don’t want to see it
BE
Unfortunately, most news suppliers just bundle all RNS feeds together without differentiation.
NH
so we are are stuck with this tosh for ever
NH
can’t retuers filter it for god’s sake?
BE
There’s so few releases on this thing that it’s probably not worth their effort.
BE
Better, I’d argue, to start a campaign to stop companies using the wire.
NH
Time for small cap corner?
NH
lots of rumours around at the end of last week
NH
and then after the market closed on Friday
NH
Iberdrola sell their 15.6% at a premium to the market price
NH
here’s a bit of comment
NH
from our Sector Watcher
NH
Petroceltic International – PCI LN
Iberdrola sold its 15.7% in Petroceltic for $115m to institutional investors (16p per share). PCI also agreed to repay the $7.3m option fee to the Spanish utility over the next 18 months. Iberdrola claims this decision is part of its asset disposal programme for 2008-2010, which aims at collecting $2.5 bn in divestments of non-core assets. Bottom line: whilst the exit of a strategic industrial partner like Iberdrola can be viewed as negative, we note that existing shareholders paid a 10% premium to last close which can’t be ignored. The exploration success of PCI over the past year has been first-rate, and we view the lack of uncertainty around Iberdrola’s back ins or not as a positive.
Petroceltic International (PCI:LSE): Last: 15.00, up 0.5 (+3.45%), High: 16.00, Low: 14.75, Volume: 5.30m
NH
and sticking with the oils
Dragon Oil (DGO:LSE): Last: 454.25, up 19 (+4.37%), High: 455.00, Low: 433.75, Volume: 911.14k
NH
telling people to be cautious into the figures
NH
The lack of exploration assets in Dragon Oil’s portfolio means that subsequent to ENOC’s 455p/sh bid being rejected on 11th December the shares have effectively become a play on the oil price. In Friday’s trading statement we expect Dragon to update the market on its medium term catalysts such as monetization of the gas resources, transferring the primary listing from Ireland to the LSE and making acquisitions with its c$1bn cash balance. However, as the Bloomberg chart below shows, the recent fall in crude prices from $82/bbl to $77/bbl (orange line) suggests that in the run-up to the announcement the shares (white line) have more ground to give up.
Dragon Oil (DGO:LSE): Last: 454.25, up 19 (+4.37%), High: 455.00, Low: 433.75, Volume: 911.14k
NH
I have not seen or talked to anyone
NH
who knows anything about Assura
NH
you seen anything Bryce?
NH
and nothing more on Borders & Southern
NH
but it does seem Falklands Oil & Gas are confident of getting a rig from BHP
NH
it is pretty quiet out there today
NH
so shall we have a bit of strategy stuff?
NH
some technical analysis
NH
UBS TECHNICAL:
* Despite strong earnings the US market closed weak on Friday. In price
terms
SPX and Nasdaq were able to hold their key support levels at 1131 and
2272,
so objectively seen the technical picture is still intact.
* However, with initial short signals trending studies (MACD),
divergences in
key momentum indicators (McClellan), a quite low put/call ratio and
weakness
in key sectors the overall market has entered a roll over phase.
=>Conclusion: Due to the intraday oversold stance in the SPX future we
can see
a stronger bounce to the start of the week but given the deteriorating
picture in studies and key indicators on the daily basis we see the
risk of
starting a first stronger set back near-term.
NH
Even if we see a final positive surprise (earnings driven) on the
upside and
the SPX would hit another marginal new high, we would see this
potential
bounce as an opportunity to sell instead of chasing the market on the
upside. * The cyclical headwind will be increasing over the next few
weeks and
particularly the month of February should be weak, so finally it’s in
our
view just a matter of time that the market turns short.
NH
all those Spain baiters
NH
have sent something over
NH
Their top ten themes for 2010
NH
At Variant Perception we don’t have a crystal ball. What we try to do is focus on things that historically have done an extremely good job at predicting GDP and industrial output nine months forward. We don’t need to be able to predict the future; we need to be able to read the past by finding leading indicators and focus on them when others are fretting about lagging indicators.
NH
There are a few things that we know do not change:
NH
> The yield curve is by far the best predictor of economic growth.
> Volatility follows the credit cycle. High credit growth precedes defaults and higher volatility.
> Monetary and fiscal policies have lagged effects on economic growth and inflation.
> Negative real interest rates precede excess credit creation and bubbles.
NH
As long as we focus on these leading relationships, we feel confident in our forecasts.
With these points in mind, we have put together what we believe will be the most prominent themes over the coming quarters and, where appropriate, trade ideas that flow naturally from them.
NH
Growth to surprise to the upside – Historically, growth tends to be very high in at least the first
few quarters following a downturn. And often the sharper the downturn, the steeper the upturn.
We believe this is not currently priced in. Germany and the US are two candidates that could
exhibit very strong QoQ growth numbers. Beyond the next few quarters we are agnostic on the
outlook for growth – we will take our cue from leading indicators.
TRADES – Tactically long dollars; tactically long stocks if they have subsequently become
less overbought
NH
proprietary indices, point to headline (consumer) inflation in the US surprising to the upside.
Again, this is not unusual in the context of the severe downturn we have recently experienced.
During the Great Depression, for example, there were periods when CPI was in the double digits.
> Inflation in many emergings to surprise to the upside – Supply constraints are already having
an impact on food prices in countries like India. The global downturn temporarily took the
pressure off many commodity prices, including soft commodities, but fundamentals are beginning
to reassert themselves. The problems many emergings had in 2007 with rising food prices look
likely to be revisited. This will force many emergings’ central banks to tighten policy faster than
developed markets.
TRADES – Short EM front-end of yield curves; EM yield curve flatteners
NH
Fear of deflation will keep DM (Developed Market) central banks on hold – The central
banks of developed countries – especially the Fed, the BoE and (to a lesser extent) the ECB –
have an inveterate fear of deflation that will keep them on hold longer than is prudent. Not only
do they want to circumvent the risk of a double-dip recession, they want to ensure impaired
financial institutions are given ample opportunity to use the yield spread to recapitalize
themselves. Yield curves should steepen further. We recommend roll down strategies in the 2 to
3 year sector.
TRADES – Rolling long gilt/linker/UST 2-3 years; long precious metals – especially we like
platinum/palladium as they are a call option on a sharp upturn in global growth, which we
expect; US large-cap bank equities – especially those with explicit government support
NH
there’s loads more on this
NH
but I think that’s enough
NH
have you got anything else to look at?
BE
Well, we can’t really go an entire session without mentioning the banks.
NH
yes, Lloyds are a good market this morning
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY:LSE): Last: 58.59, up 1.81 (+3.19%), High: 59.19, Low: 57.43, Volume: 75.75m
Barclays PLC (BARC:LSE): Last: 317.85, up 6.65 (+2.14%), High: 318.53, Low: 310.00, Volume: 15.97m
BE
For Lloyds, there was one story in the Sundays that caught my eye.
BE
From The Sunday Express’s “Insider” column.
NH
you read the quality end of the Sunday press then
BE
Yeah – I like to keep up to date on whether Diana’s still dead.
BE
Anyway, I can’t find the story on Factiva or their website.
BE
But the gist was that Win Bischoff met Cowdery on the Orient Express last Thursday
NH
was this a secret meeting
BE
“Cowdery’s tax advisers, investors and bankers were also on the train”
BE
So no, not chance you assume.
NH
so they are going to buy something from Lloyds then
NH
but I though if you wanted to do a meeting like this
NH
a discreet Mayfair townhouse
NH
or airport close to a hotel
NH
might be a better setting
BE
I know. “Merger on the Orient Express” is just too obvious.
BE
Anyway, this has sparked the usual chatter that Resolution’s next deal’s going to be for Clerical Medical
NH
Buiter’s comment about Wim
NH
In June, he wrote in the blog that the appointment of former Citigroup Chairman Winfried “Win” Bischoff to help oversee a report on the future of U.K. international financial services was “the most ridiculous appointment since Caligula appointed his favorite horse a consul.”
NH
(terry consider that a yellow. another attempted puff and off you go)
NH
so time to wrap things up
NH
still hanging in there
International Power (IPR:LSE): Last: 337.40, up 15.4 (+4.78%), High: 351.40, Low: 334.80, Volume: 27.48m
NH
a few late bits of RAW
NH
people looking at GKN again
NH
this rumour is coming back
NH
not sure what the story is yet
Game Group (GMG:LSE): Last: 99.35, down 1.65 (-1.63%), High: 101.70, Low: 99.20, Volume: 779.72k
NH
some people think it’s recent pounding has left it vulnerable
BE
At something like a nine-year low, this one.
NH
(MTA.L – what is that)
NH
that was the name in the frame
NH
there would be a regulatory problem
BE
Gamestop did trumpet a UK invastion a couple of years ago.
BE
Not sure how that turned out.
NH
(yes Mungers – GKN bid rumours)
NH
if they do want more stores in Europe
NH
now would seem a good time
NH
Jessops have issued a press release
NH
that seems to be telling retail investors
NH
and stop being so dumb
NH
Recent Press speculation concerning the Members Voluntary Liquidation
In the light of recent press coverage concerning the ownership of Jessops, the UK’s leading independent high street photographic chain, the Board of Jessops plc would like to make it clear that Jessops plc no longer owns The Jessop Group Limited, which owns and trades the 213 high street shops and www.jessops.com.
NH
As set out in the announcement dated 28 September 2009, The Jessop Group Limited was sold to Snap Equity Limited, a private company, on that date. Since that date it has traded as an independent business with no relationship with Jessops plc.
NH
The proposed Members’ Voluntary Liquidation of Jessops plc will, therefore, have no effect whatsoever on the trading of The Jessop Group Limited and its 213 high street shops, which will continue to trade independently of Jessops plc.
NH
Shareholders of Jessops plc are reminded that the final date for acceptance of proxy forms to vote on the proposed Members’ Voluntary Liquidation (“MVL”) is 10am on Tuesday 19th January.
NH
you don’t own Jessops anymore
NH
but a shell company by the looks of things
BE
“Dear shareholders, you own nothing. Stop being idiots. Sincerely, Jessops.”
NH
Shareholders of Jessops plc are reminded that the final date for acceptance of proxy forms to vote on the proposed Members’ Voluntary Liquidation (“MVL”) is 10am on Tuesday 19th January.
The Board of Jessops plc would like to re-iterate its advice that voting in favour of the proposed MVL, as the Directors are doing in respect to their own shareholdings, is in the best interests of shareholders as a whole as it will result in the receipt of 9.7p per 100 shares owned. If shareholders do not vote in favour of the proposal there is no guarantee that they will receive anything at all.
Whether or not shareholders vote in favour of the proposed MVL, The Jessop Group Limited will continue to operate as an independently owned business.
Jessops (JSP:LSE): Last: 0.50, no change, High: 0.50, Low: 0.37, Volume: 916.21k
NH
that’s got the puns going
BE
Yup – same ones we always got with Photo-Me
NH
let’s end the session now
NH
sadly no restaurant review today
NH
mainly because we haven’t been out this year
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NH
and that really is it for today
NH
I don’t understand why