January, 2010
Catcher in the Alps: Caulfield does Davos
By Andrew Hill of Lombard.
We’re privileged to welcome to the World Economic Forum, the distinguished writer and thinker, Professor Holden Caulfield, 76-year-old president and founder of Rye Introspective LLP.
You want the truth? The EU can’t handle the truth
On Friday, Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter directed our attention to the following chart from this month’s Forbes Magazine:
In Gartman’s eyes the chart neatly sums up the problem currently facing sovereigns,
Fcrt-ing about with the repo market
A development in the delicate balancing act that is US financial reform:
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Obama administration is considering exempting U.S. Treasuries from its proposed new tax on banks in order to prevent disruption in the world’s most important funding market,
US Q4 GDP shocks to the upside with 5.7% growth
Expectations were running particularly high on this number — analysts were forecasting US growth to have picked by 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter on an annualised basis, up from 2.2 per cent in the third.
Europe’s ‘Asian crisis’ moment coming up?
If it’s possible to add drama to the crisis over Greek bonds, Hong Kong-based research house Gavekal makes a good effort on Friday, with a note that begins:
A few days ago, a friend expressed to us the opinion that the 300bp spread on Greek bonds would be like the 300 Spartans of Thermopylae:
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Friday morning,
- European CDS is going Grεεk…
- And European CDS liquidity is Lehman-fied.
- So who’s selling Greek CDS?
- And is it time to raid the piggy bank?
- 800 years of financial folly.
Markets Live transcript 29 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:17 on 29 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHhola NHand welcome to Markets Live
Nine in a row
After showing some signs of fatigue towards the end of 2009, UK house prices perked up in the first month of the new year, according to the latest survey from Nationwide published on Friday.
In fact,
Samsung: the good news and the bad news
Remember when Samsung products were the ones you bought when you couldn’t afford a Sony?
Once derided as the poor, copycat cousin of the glamorous Japanese electronics giants, Samsung Electronics — the flagship of South Korea’s largest chaebol or conglomerate — is lauded by Lex on Friday for seemingly dragging the country out of its slump “all on its own”.
Who’s selling Greek CDS?
Greek CDS has been sky-high in recent weeks, reaching yet another record on Thursday.
If that isn’t enough to send jitters through the market, here’s something which is.
From BNP Paribas on Friday:
800 years of financial folly
“Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing and recovering their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises….”
That quote comes from Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s book “This time is Different – Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly”.
Time to raid the piggy bank?
FT Alphaville did . . .
Here’s what we found:
Drachmas, pesetas and escudos all trading on eBay now.
We suggest you get them before the central banks do.
Related links:
If I had a pound,
Going Grεεk…
With the term-structure of Greek CDS having inverted two weeks ago – indicating the market thinks there’s a higher probability of a default in the short-term than in the longer term – we note that curves for other European peripherals are now also beginning to flatten.
The Lewis PR plan for Goldman
For every one of those rare non-critical – or even neutral – comments in the media about Goldman Sachs, there seem to be at least three or four negative takes, with varying degrees of relevance and/or humour.
Europe is Lehman-fied…
Last month FT Alphaville mentioned that sovereign CDS liquidity for developed countries had overtaken that of emerging markets. Within developed countries, however, we’re now seeing more and more of a divergence,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- How to bail-out Greece.
- “The government bond market is starting to malfunction.”
- The bribery-crisis connection in Greece.
- And secret banking cabals.
- “Bond investors have no idea how to price tail risk.”
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: Britain’s strategic chocolate dilemma
Briefly, during Kraft’s takeover bid for Cadbury, I thought the UK might proclaim a “strategic chocolate” doctrine.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Nationwide says UK house prices rose by 1.2 per cent in January – statement.
- Debenhams to appoint Paddy Power’s Nigel Northridge chairman – statement.
- Investec nine-month operating profit climbs 1 per cent – statement.
When Stephen eats a banana…
Some covert film video footage has emerged from this year’s World Economic Conference in Davos, Switzerland…
That, for the record, is one Stephen A. Schwarzman, billionaire investor and chairman of Blackstone,
Dead deals, or, AIG in pics
Schedule A to the Amended Shortfall Agreement, once redacted to the nines, now unveiled, means we don’t have to wait until 2018 to get an inside peak into just which CDO deals, and banks, the US government helped via its bail-out of mega-insurerer AIG.
A poor UK-market reaction to S&P!
We’re in the midst of a UK-focused sell-off partly based on the following wire story. (The market was also unsettled by weaker than expected US durable good numbers.)
NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) – The United Kingdom is no longer classified as being among the most stable and low-risk banking systems in the world,
The CoCo mortgage, coming soon?
We’ve referred to the Debt Hangover speech by Andrew Haldane, the Bank of England’s financial stability wizard, once already on Thursday. But it’s worth revisiting to highlight his views on mortgage structuring.
Is negative convexity the new Bernanke conundrum?
Negative convexity is something which has been mentioned on this blog before.
It sounds dramatic, not to mention nerdy, but bear with us because it is something which is actually quite interesting — and something which is,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Thursday morning,
- Moody’s chimes in on the Volcker rule.
- Rejoice! – a UK M&A deal.
- Port-ugal in the storm.
- The aftermarket (in modern football finance).
- Going plural.
Markets Live transcript 28 Jan 2010
Markets Live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:14 on 28 Jan 2010. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Bryce Elder NHHola NHand welcome NHto Markets Live
Rejoice! – a UK M&A deal
On Reuters:
ARRIVA PLC – CONFIRMS THAT IT HAS HELD VERY PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS WITH SOCIÉTÉ NATIONALE DES CHEMINS DE FER FRANÇAIS
ARRIVA PLC- REGARDING A POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION OF ALL OR PART OF KEOLIS’ TRANSPORTATION BUSINESS TO ARRIVA
ARRIVA PLC – AFFIRMS THAT DISCUSSIONS ARE AT A PRELIMINARY EXPLORATORY STAGE
(Full RNS here)
OK,
[Modern Football Finance] The Aftermarket
Oh dear.
That Manchester United notes offering is not faring so well in the aftermarket.
The price of the sterling 8.75 per cent tranche has fallen very sharply from its issue price of 98.089 in the first four days of trading.