December, 2009
Please have confidence in us!
George Papaconstantinou had a busy day on Wednesday.
A whirlwind London PR offensive by the Greek finance minister to help revive confidence in the fiscally beleaguered eurozone state, included stopovers at a plethora of media outlets — the FT,
[Outlook 2010] Saxo’s outrageous predictions for 2010
Every year Saxo Bank comes out with a list of 10 outrageous predictions for the year ahead.
Previous predictions from the bank have included Ron Paul being elected US president, crude crashing to $25 per barrel and Chinese growth hitting zero.
Has money supply growth peaked?
That’s certainly what Standard Chartered thinks.
In a research note published on Thursday morning, the emerging market specialist says that M2 money supply growth has come off its first-half of 2009 highs — with one major exception:
That yawning US yield curve
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement, in which it signalled a pullback in liquidity support but not an imminent hike in interest rates, seems to have led to some interesting movements in the US Treasury market.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- No change at the Fed, or is there?
- “The average strike is unlikely to be a good investment…”
- A deferred tax asset update.
- The End of Chimerica.
- “There is no bonus deal to be done.”
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
John Gapper: How America let banks off the leash
Barack Obama came to office with members of his administration quoting the adage of Paul Romer,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- ECB said to start consulting banks, investors on collateral – Bloomberg.
- Dubai officials in confidence building UK, US trip – Reuters.
- US says Credit Suisse evaded sanctions – Reuters,
CDS report: Home builders for the holidays
Markit’s Otis Casey wrote this CDS report
With the holidays around the corner, many are looking forward to making trips home to spend time with family and friends. For those in the
SEC accuses ex-Lazard, TPG employees of insider trading
Insider trading – it’s the new black.
The SEC on Wednesday accused a former vice president and investment banker at Lazard Freres and a former associate at private equity firm TPG Capital of “serial insider trading”.
FOMC statement – QE coming to a close…
This is as expected, but the tone is almost a little smug. Ben’s in control.
Quick take: MBS purchases to come to a close by the end of Q1 2010; special liquidity facilities to expire as planned on February 1.
Deep fat finger regret – Danisco edition
Fat fingers can get people into all sorts of trouble – especially when one mistakenly fat fingers a company’s earnings ahead of schedule.
From Danish food ingredient-maker Danisco on Wednesday:
Danisco
Another downgrade for Greece – S&P cuts to BBB+
On the same day the finance minister of the Hellenic Republic told the FT he would do “what it takes” to regain investors’ trust, Standard & Poor’s lowered the country’s ratings to BBB+ from A-.
The rating agency kept a CreditWatch negative on the sovereign – meaning further downgrades in the near future were likely.
Short measures at the Toxic Pub Co
Oh dear. It has not been a good day for shareholders of Punch Taverns.
First, a disappointing trading statement knocked almost 5 per cent off its battered share price and then shareholders voted down its remuneration report.
Introducing financial oil leasing
The concept of ‘leasing’ commodities has been well established in the gold market for a while.
The lease rate for gold is derived from daily gold forward rates (GOFO) published by the London Bullion Market Association.
Chanos on China
This CNBC video featuring Jim Chanos of Kynkos Associates is well worth viewing.
Example, on China:
Bubbles are best identified by credit excess, not valuation excess. And there is no bigger credit excess right now than in China.
We’re yanking the Vampire Squid auction
Executive decision this.
Upon receipt of an “enveloping” bid from a fan of Tracy’s sculptural talents, the charity auction for the hand-crafted Vampire Squid is hereby cancelled.
The prospective owner,
Parsing Pandit, or ‘I am sick of working for $1 per year’
Independent research firm Portales Partners on Wednesday issued the pithiest take we’ve seen on Vikram Pandit’s internal memo regarding Citi’s Tarp repayment.
We quote:
Interpretation of the Day: Deconstructing Vikram Pandit’s internal memo on Citigroup’s (C) TARP repayment…
Citigroup:
[Outlook 2010] Chasing the rally into the New Year
A 2009 perennial question – how long will the rally in global equities last? The answer is right through next year, if you believe the consensus view from the latest Bank 0f America Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey.
Federal Trade Commission accuses Intel of not playing well with others [UPDATED]
Intel has had something of a rough 2009.
In November, New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo accused the chipmaker of “violating state and federal anti-monopoly laws by engaging in a worldwide, systematic campaign of illegal conduct”.
Was 2009 the year of the market maker?
We were intrigued by a comment by one of our contacts that 2009, more than anything else, had been the year of the market maker. And that’s on every level.
Think about it:
Traditional value investing was confused;
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Wednesday morning,
- The Basel breather heard ’round the world.
- A UK jobs surprise.
- So farewell, 12-month LTRO.
- Sober times at Toxic Pub Co.
- 10 surprises from UBS.
A Basel breather heard ’round the world
Has Christmas come early for the world’s banks, or are we witnessing a grasping of straws for anything resembling regulatory forbearance this Wednesday?
Banking shares in Japan and Europe are up this morning,
The UK’s (positive) jobs surprise
The Office of National Statistics has just released provisional unemployment data for August to November and the headline grabbing news is this:
RTRS-UK NOV CLAIMANT COUNT -6,300 (CONS. +13,300), FIRST FALL SINCE FEB 2008,
Markets live transcript 16 Dec 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:15 on 16 Dec 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT Miles Johnson, FT NHhey there NHgood morning NHand welcome to Markets Live
So farewell, 12-month LTRO
All hail the last of the ECB’s 12-month repo tenders, in which the central bank attempts to inject liquidity into the Eurosystem.
The market waited with bated breath as Europe’s banks submitted their bids this Wednesday morning.
Sober times at the Toxic Pub Company
Not much festive cheer for shareholders of the Toxic Pub Company in Wednesday’s trading update, which covers the 16 weeks to 12 December.
There are no signs of improvement in either of its two divisions — in fact Punch’s managed business is materially underperforming peers like Mitchells &
[Outlook 2010] 10 surprises from UBS
In the interests of going against base-case thinking, UBS has issued the following list of plausible market surprises it feels might (just) happen in 2010.
So, without further ado here they are:
And,
Japan’s tobacco tax deliberations
It always strikes a visitor to Tokyo when a smoker who lights up at an outdoor cafe is quickly banished inside by anxious waiters to smoke — often alongside tables of families with small children.
Such is the oddity of a place where local governments have largely banned smoking outdoors in public places,