December, 2009
Gold soars past $1,200
Gold remained in record territory on Wednesday, as oil prices fell sharply and the dollar neared its intraday high. Wall Street meanwhile retreated from an intraday high for the year as worries over US jobs figures due Friday tempered an early rally in risk appetite.
Overnight markets: Up
Asian stocks rose on Thursday, reports Bloomberg, sending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index toward its biggest weekly gain since May, as a weaker yen boosted Japanese makers of cars and electronics and the Federal Reserve said the US economy had improved.
Al Maktoum’s yearning for yearlings
Just a hunch, but we suspect that this story will do more lasting damage to Dubai than any other single article or illustration in the past tumultuous week.
Last week, as underlings in the embattled emirate were busy re-setting investors’ expectations as regards getting their money back from the likes of Dubai World,
On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis
On Wednesday, FT Alphaville received the following press release from investment research firm Trimtabs regarding the veracity of official US job numbers (our emphasis):
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000,
Dragon Oil big vote countdown
Emirates National Oil Company said on Wednesday morning it was sticking with its Scheme of Arrangement (SoA) structure for its ₤1.1bn bid for Dragon Oil.
This is a key development in the deal for one reason — an SoA requires a shareholder vote in which ENOC cannot participate with its own 52 per cent stake.
Bargain Britain
The UK stock market is cheap.
That’s the surprising conclusion of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Soc Gen strategist Dylan Grice.
He has been using an updated version of Ben Graham’s Appraisal Method,
Varying perceptions
Jonathan Wilmot, Alphaville’s guest editor on Tuesday, left us in no doubt where he stood on the current inflation debate.
Drawing on the work of Friedrich Hayek, the Austrian and British economist and philosopher,
The Dubai fear factor
Last week — when Dubai World announced it was seeking a debt standstill — was probably the first major bout of market jitters in recent months
Which means it’s time to test the fear gauges!
First we have the industry standard fear barometer — the Vix,
Want work experience on the trading floor of a major bank?
That will be 550 quid please.
From a press release from charity for charities Pilotlight on Wednesday:
UK Follows US Example Of Auctioning Work Experience For A Good Cause
With so many students now graduating from university without a job,
[Outlook 2010] Deutsche Bank ponders all things sovereign
Adding to the deluge of 2010 outlooks — we’ve now had Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Standard Chartered — on Wednesday is Deutsche Bank.
And we’re sensing a theme in these things: sovereign debt.
Here’s what the Deutsche team,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Wednesday morning,
- Gotcha! – the Falkland Oilands revisited.
- Japan does `QE in the broadest sense.’
- Na-kheeled over.
- CoCo tastes different in Yorkshire.
- Oil is an inflated asset.
CoCo tastes different in Yorkshire
There’s a much more substantial test looming on the horizon for CoCos — the new darlings of the bank capital universe.
Yorkshire Building Society announced on Tuesday that it’s set to finalise a deal to take over its loss-making rival Chelsea.
Markets live transcript 2 Dec 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:16 on 2 Dec 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder (BE) NH:hello there everyone NH:it’s 11.03am
Na-kheeled over
Here’s an updated version of short interest in that Nakheel sukuk — courtesy of Data Explorers:
The thing to focus on here is not necessarily the spike in active utilisation in November but the slow decline in lendable quantity.
BNP Paribas: Oil is an inflated asset
BNP Paribas’ Harry Tchilinguirian puts forward the idea (once again) that oil prices have disconnected from physical reality, adding that until unconventional monetary policy is removed from the table the market can expect crude futures to trade as an investment class rather than a consumption asset.
Gotcha! – the Falkland Oilands revisited
Right, here’s something to strike fear into the hearts of those ‘sharks’ hoarding oil off the coast of Great Britain.
The UK could be sitting on 60bn barrels of oil. Well, sort of.
From Wednesday’s Sun:
How to say ‘QE in the broadest sense’ in Japanese
Some murky subterranean tensions are slowly bubbling to the surface in Tokyo, even as the oddly-mannered slanging match between the central bank and gung-ho ministers of the newish Democratic Party of Japan-led government looks increasingly like an internecine kabuki drama.
The real Brazilian real
Just how overvalued is Brazil’s real — the currency at the centre of the country’s new capital controls?
By 31.3 per cent, according to Standard Chartered’s Mike Moran and Douglas Smith, who have just cut their short-term recommendation on the South American currency to `underweight’.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- The Bank Job: Goldman elite speak…
- Morgan Stanley’s unhappy new year prediction.
- The ascent, fall and limits of Dubai.
- Illegal alpha.
- All is far from well in bank-land.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
The end of Willem Buiter’s Maverecon: ????? ???
In January 2010 I will, DV, start a new career as Chief Economist at Citi. Unlike my predecessor in that position,
AV after dark
Late on FT Alphaville on Tuesday,
- Goldman bankers and their (alleged) guns.
- Fancy running an Icelandic bank?
- Somali pirates set up co-op, make hijacking a ‘community activity’.
- Catch up with Jonathan Wilmot’s guest blogging on AV: read Invisible Bubbles from the Credit Suisse strategist and then follow the series links at the bottom of the post.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Cisco says it owns 84 per cent of Tandberg, says can waive 90 per cent acceptance condition, offer period will not be extended past Dec 3 closing date – statement.
Creditors mobilise on Dubai debt plan
Bondholders and creditors including top hedge funds and banks have formed a group in response to Dubai World’s $26bn restructuring plans, even as Dubai’s ruler on Tuesday insisted that his debt-laden emirate’s economy remained sound.
Alwaleed: banks got Dubai wrong
Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the billionaire Saudi investor, said banks that loaned money to Dubai World can’t claim to be victims of the emirate’s debt crisis because they should have understood the risks,
Henderson ousted from GM
General Motors ousted Fritz Henderson as chief executive on Tuesday night in a surprise move that will see the ailing US state-controlled carmaker get its second new boss in less than a year. GM directors – including Ed Whitacre,
Bernanke set for confirmation grilling
Ben Bernanke is likely to face tough questioning when he appears before the Senate banking committee on Thursday seeking confirmation for a second term as Federal Reserve chairman. While there is little doubt he will be confirmed,
No cash for Vivendi in NBC deal
Vivendi will not receive any cash upfront from General Electric for its stake in NBC Universal under a $5.8bn proposed deal agreed this week. GE will pay more than its original offer of about $5bn for the French media group’s 20% stake in NBCU but delay payments until at least late next year.
Citi vets start hedge fund
Four founding partners of former Citigroup hedge fund Old Lane, including its ex-CEO Guru Ramakrishnan, have launched one of the biggest US hedge-fund start-ups of the year, reports the WSJ. The NY-based fund,