December, 2009
[Outlook 2010] Goldman Sachs up 12-mth gold forecast to $1350/toz
The 2010 commodity outlook from Goldman Sachs has just landed in our inbox and a quick skim across the forecasts confirms the bank that previously liked to be bullish oil, is now also bullish gold.
Well relatively so,
‘The Dr Evil Scenario’ in securitisation
Goldman Sachs may not be pure evil, but it looks to have inspired a fear of the “evil” in the securitisation market.
We hear that potential securitisation investors are asking City law firms to be on the look out for any “Dr Evil Scenario”
New S&P index does dollar weakness with gold
Is this the start of a deluge of retail investor-oriented financial products looking to cash in on gold mania and a potential dollar crisis?
From Standard & Poor’s on Thursday:
Standard & Poor’s Launches S&P 500 Gold Hedged Index
Index to Serve as the Basis for new UBS Investment Products
LONDON,
Putin on those ‘rich, tasteless’ Russians
Vladimir Putin has been taking part in an annual question-and-answer session with Russian citizens on Thursday, and while we couldn’t possibly comment on what’s prompting his forthright commentary, we have to say some of the things he’s been saying have been,
Managing CEE’s FX addiction
Here’s a great chart from Reuters showing just how addicted many countries in emerging Europe have become to borrowing in foreign currency for everything from second homes to TV sets :
As Reuters notes,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Thursday morning,
- Bank of England’s QE — the beginning of the end?
- Goldman sees 2010 as ‘exciting, with risks!’
- Sovereign CDS liquidity snaps.
- Is FX changing?
- BofA’s strongman tactics.
Sovereign CDS liquidity snaps
Did the events of last week in Dubai really send jitters through emerging markets?
Here’s something to ponder in the emerging vs developed market debate — an issue aptly summed up in Deutsche Bank’s 2010 outlook on Wednesday.
Energy irony
As FT Alphaville reported, a number of US refineries have had to mothball plants in the last month due to poor product margins. Ironically, this action may now be beginning to boost product cracks (the difference between crude and product prices and what determines refinery profitability).
Markets live transcript 3 Dec 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:13 on 3 Dec 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Miles Johnson, FT (MJ) Paul Murphy (PM) NH:hola NH:it’s 11:03am
Bank of England’s QE – the beginning of the end?
The Bank of England published a consultation paper on Thursday morning discussing the possibility of extending the Bank’s Asset Purchase Facility scheme for corporate bonds to allow sales as well as purchases.
BofA’s strong arm tactics
If Lloyds bondholders thought they were given an offer they couldn’t refuse over CoCos, what about Bank of America shareholders.
Overnight, BofA announced plans to pay back $45bn of TARP money, using $26.2bn of its owns cash,
Goldman Sachs – because we’re worth it
Okay, here it is – 14 pages which explain why Goldmanites deserve all that money.
And basically what it boils down to is this; they are smarter and more profitable than anyone else.
Selected highlights and graphics from Goldman Sachs Compensation Practices.
FX is changing
Harpal Sandhu, chief executive officer of a systems firm called Integral Development, is trying to change the way forex markets function.
Specifically, he wants technology to even-out the jagged playing field,
[Outlook 2010] Goldman sees 2010 as ‘exciting, with risks!’
Has Goldman Sachs, beset with a public image problem, turned global economic cheerleader by way of compensation?
The bank has just released its Global Economic Outlook for next year and beyond (Title:
Further reading
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- The threat of shariah-compliant finance.
- Morgan Stanley restructures a real-estate fund.
- The land backing the Nakheel sukuk.
- Anyone up for a spot of pirate hunting?
- Kim Jong Il’s fake currency “reform”.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Thursday’s FT,
Niall Ferguson and Laurence Kotlikoff: How to take moral hazard out of banking
As Dubai World’s default shows, the financial crisis is far from over,
AV after dark
On FT Alphaville late Wednesday,
- S&P acts again on Dubai.
- Al Maktoum’s yearnings for yearlings.
- On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Dragon Oil big vote countdown.
- Bargain Britain.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Xstrata approves development of $542m operation for Ernest Henry Mining – statement.
- Phytopharm launches placing and open offer worth ₤25.2m – statement.
BofA to repay $45bn in Tarp funds
Bank of America is to repay $45bn in US bail-out funds in a dramatic step to escape the heightened government supervision that accompanied its rescue from the financial crisis. BofA will use $26.2bn of its own cash and raise an additional $18.8bn in the markets from Thursday through the sale of stock in the largest ever capital-raising by a US bank.
UK banks owed $5bn by Dubai World
UK banks have an aggregate exposure to Dubai World of about $5bn, confirming them as the biggest creditor group at the stricken emirate holding company. A week after Dubai World called for a debt standstill,
Goldman takes offensive on pay
Goldman Sachs, known for its outsize profits and unapologetically handsome pay packages, has begun meeting with top investors in an effort to ward off an investor backlash over its record compensation pool,
CIC in €800m offer to Apax
China Investment Corp, China’s sovereign wealth fund, plans to invest as much as €800m (£723m) into Apax Partners’ €11.2bn private equity fund in a groundbreaking deal. CIC would also take a small stake in the management company of one of Europe’s biggest private equity funds.
Comcast bid values NBC JV at $37bn
Comcast’s long-awaited bid for control of NBC Universal will value the new joint venture with General Electric at an unexpectedly larger $37.25bn before debt, boosted by a higher valuation on the US cable group’s pay-TV stations,
RBS bankers brace for bonus battle
The UK Treasury has warned top bankers at RBS not to expect bumper bonuses next year, as Alistair Darling, chancellor, prepares to get tough on bankers’ compensation. The Treasury’s hard line has prompted RBS directors,
Unilever to offload Findus Italy
Unilever is considering the sale of its Italian frozen food business in a deal worth up to €800m (£760m) that has attracted interest from Birds Eye Iglo and Findus Group, its private equity-owned rivals.
TPG, American offer JAL $1.1bn
American Airlines said it, Oneworld alliance members and private equity fund TPG would be willing to invest $1.1bn in Japan Airlines to bolster the airline’s finances and prevent it from defecting to a rival alliance,
CME nears deal on CDS clearing
CME Group, the world’s biggest futures exchange, is nearing a breakthrough deal with some of the world’s biggest banks to clear credit default swaps. An agreement could be announced on Thursday, capping more than a year of discussions.
Blanchflower accuses BoE’s King
David Blanchflower, the former Bank of England policymaker, has accused Bank governor Mervyn King of keeping “vital” information from him at the height of the financial crisis, reports the Daily Telegraph.