November, 2009
BayernLB faces loss in Austria
BayernLB said on Tuesday it expected a second straight loss of more than €1bn ($1.5bn) this year despite an improvement in 2009 for Germany’s second-largest public sector bank. The admission comes after BayernLB lifted Q3 risk provisions substantially and warned that its Austrian subsidiary,
China’s industrial production leaps
China’s industrial production and retail sales accelerated in October, bolstering forecasts for economic growth to exceed 10% this quarter for the first time in more than a year, reports Bloomberg. Production rose 16.1% from a year earlier,
Goldman, BofA chiefs on defensive
Goldman Sachs pays its employees more than other financial groups because its employees are more productive, Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman CEO, told a banking conference on Tuesday. Blankfein said that people
US loses Bear fraud case
Two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers accused of misleading investors were found innocent of all charges on Tuesday, marking a blow to the first big effort by US prosecutors to bring a criminal case related to the subprime mortgage crisis.
Overnight markets: Up
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, reports Bloomberg, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher for a fourth day, after a bigger-than- expected increase in Japan’s machinery orders, while China’s industrial production and retail sales accelerated.
Ambac warns of bankruptcy risk
The train wreck that is the bond insurance industry always provides interesting headlines. MBIA, once the sector’s leading light, on Monday reported a $728m loss for the third quarter of 2009. Ambac, its long-time rival,
Former Bear Stearns fund managers not guilty of fraud charges, jury finds
Those accused of white collar crimes in recent months – including but not limited to the man formerly known as Sir Allen Stanford and one Raj Rajaratnam – probably breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday,
Fairground financial punditry?
Look into our eyes, look directly into our eyes…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to close UP on Tuesday.
In fact, we can be more specific: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going to close ABOVE 10,241 on Tuesday.
(Scary) chart du jour: US retail sale performance in selected recessions [UPDATED]
Tremble, retailers:
(Via The Big Picture, H/T @EconomPic)
[UPDATE] An appropriately worrying indicator of the state of the US consumer, from the NY Times (via Calculated Risk):
“There are families not eating at the end of the month,”
Paulson takes another bite of Cadbury
We all know revered hedge fund manager John Paulson has been buying gold this year, but he also appears to have something of a sweet tooth, as this regulatory disclosure released on Tuesday afternoon shows:
Steelie Neelie squares up to Silvio
No one could accuse Neelie Kroes of slipping gently into retirement. In her last months as EU antitrust commissioner Ms Kroes has delivered a slap across the chops to several state-owned banks, and rolled up her sleeves regarding Oracle’s bid for Sun.
The feedback loop of commercial real estate, regional banks and unemployment
It is no secret that the Fed is quite, quite concerned about the ongoing shakeout in the US commercial real estate market in the US, but just in case anyone missed the memos, Dennis Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed has devoted a whole speech to the subject.
Have you been forexed?
From our pixelated post bag, concerning that $100bn forex hustle:
I read your story with great interest. I traded equity indices and FX very actively at the end of last year/ early this year with one of the big UK cfd firms,
FHA bailout watch, plunging cash reserves edition
Executives at the US Federal Housing Administration (FHA) continue to insist that the mortgage insurer is not in trouble. Available data suggest otherwise.
As the Washington Post reported on Tuesday,
I should not have CoCo-ed?
As outlined in our criteria, we do not consider contingent capital securities to be a form of common equity. We can include them as hybrid equity depending on their exact features. If the conversion trigger is set at a level that we think would lead to a conversion occurring too late,
More on that overheating Chinese property market
Chinese real estate figures out on Tuesday show investment in the sector was up 18.9 per cent in October, while property sales soared 48.4 per cent year-to-date.
These sort of figures obviously reinforce fears in the market that an asset price bubble is growing in China.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville Tuesday morning,
- Barclays Protium-purified balance sheet.
- An oil stat shock.
- I ♥ 1982 unemployment.
- Banks don’t just have an asset problem.
- Yell calls for cash.
Goldman still bullish on commodities: Oil, corn, copper to rise
Want another reason to be bullish commodities?
The commodity bulls at Goldman Sachs have put out another ballsy forecast for the market, this time predicting a 17.5 per cent return for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Total Returns Index in the next 12-24 months.
Markets live transcript 10 Nov 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:11 on 10 Nov 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder (BE) NH:good moaning NH:and welcome to Markets Live
Banks don’t just have an asset problem, says Moody’s
Here’s the Moody’s report that is making waves in financial media circles on Tuesday morning.
The basic premise: The average maturities of new debt issuance by Moody’s-rated banks around the world fell from 7.2 years to 4.7 years over the last five years — the shortest average maturity on record.
Asia’s markets are still dancing for IPOs
SocGen’s uber-bear Albert Edwards has been at it again, predicting on Monday that markets worldwide will hit a fresh low in 2010 and suggesting that a new global recession is on the way. Oh, and faith in growth stories is a “sick joke”,
I ♥ 1982: Is 10% US unemployment good for the stock market?
Thriller, ET, the opening of Epcot Disney World – culturally speaking, 1982 was evidently a seminal year. But is there another reason for middle-aged fund managers to be dreaming wistfully of their halcyon youths?
The chart below shows what the S&P 500 index did last time the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate rose above 10 per cent (the level it stands at now).
Oil stat shock
The following story from the Guardian has caused quite a stir in the oil market on Tuesday morning:
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower
Yell calls for cash
The generosity of big City investors is about to be tested again.
Yell – that’s the directories company with a broken business model and a mountain of debt – has announced on Tuesday morning plans to raise £660m via firm placing and open offer at 42p.
Axa and AMP: High-stakes takeover game Down Under
It’s not in the league of Chinalco’s $19.5bn bid for a stake in Rio Tinto, but Asia’s largest unsolicited takeover offer of the year could be about to get larger, if analysts and investors are proved correct.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- IEA oil figures were underplayed, whistleblower says.
- A PE time-bomb?
- Nouriel Roubini’s track record.
- What is inflation and how does one measure it?
- Reagan mythbusting.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Frederic Mishkin: Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy
There is increasing concern that we may be experiencing another round of asset-price bubbles that could threaten the economy,