Minerva is now back in business having renegotiated its debt position. Walking past its Walbrook scheme in the City of London as it emerged from the ground without a tenant over the past two years has been a depressing experience.

It had appeared a classic example of mis-timing the property cycle – but suddenly it is one of the only large new buildings in the City following lettings elsewhere.

Although the leasing strategy has appeared odd in the past, the building is now well placed to be let on decent terms, something that would be very supportive of Minerva’s share price.

However, if Cadbury were to put together a compelling defence case (with more details on cost-saving proposals and specifics on ‘mid-teen margin targets’) justifying its standalone value (which we value at 780p) and then add a value for synergies with Ferrero (we value at 140p a Cadbury share) over and above this base value, this could prove a very credible alternative to a raised KFT offer (the current offer is worth 725p).

As an entirely family-controlled entity, it is very difficult to gauge Ferrero’s stance, motivation or its financing capacity (if not a merger). Being left on the sidelines of consolidation taking place around them is unlikely to be an attractive proposition (like Grolsch in beer, a link into one of the majors would be attractive sooner rather than later). However, the family has to consider whether it would be prepared to dilute its control and would Cadbury shareholders be prepared to own shares in an entity with a large family holding (potentially one-third to one half)?

•Revenue synergies are assumed at 3% of combined sales at a 60% contribution margin.

•Less restructuring charges of GBP 610m (1.75x cost savings).

•50% for Cadbury shareholders amounts to140p a share.

International Power has a diversified portfolio of interests in over 40 power stations in more than 20 countries around the world. It recently sold its entire Czech business to Czech-Slovak investment firm J&T Group, banking a tasty £420million profit on the £619million sale.

“The bottom prospective reservoir, a Dolomite formation, has been tested with light oil shows, good reservoir pressure and porosity but low permeability. Further testing of the upper three prospective reservoirs (including reservoirs corresponding to Prinos Group equivalent) continues.”

60.

The 25 April 2005 statement omitted the fact that eight DSTs had been completed and to that date evidenced non-commercial flow rates for the Kallirachi-2 well. The announcement conveyed the incorrect impression that the three higher level reservoirs which were yet to be tested were of the same importance as the Dolomitic zone. Having considered the available evidence, the ADC has concluded that after failure at the Dolomitic zone, Regal might reasonably have proceeded with tests at the three higher levels but would have been aware that the chances of success were diminishing. This risk of failure is not reflected in Regal’s announcement. It therefore conveyed a misleading impression as to the likelihood that testing of those three reservoirs would produce positive results.

61.

In the circumstances, the ADC considers that Regal breached AIM Rule 9 by not taking reasonable care to ensure that all relevant matters regarding the testing of the Kallirachi-2 well were accurately and fully disclosed in the announcement on 25 April 2005.

47.

On 27 February 2004, Regal made a further announcement which repeated the estimate of “up to 650MMstb (240 MMbbls recoverable)”. On the same day, Regal announced a placing raising £37.5 million.

48.

Regal failed to take reasonable care when making this announcement, in breach of AIM Rule 9. The 27 February 2004 announcement misleadingly focused on the upper estimate and failed to explain why this figure had increased from the previously reported estimates contained in the Kavala Evaluation Report. The announcement also omitted a description of the best and low prospective resource estimates of the Kallirachi Prospect.

49.

On 6 April 2004, Regal announced that there were “expected recoverable reserves of up to 240MMbbls in the Kallirachi oil discovery” and that “the discovery of the exciting Kallirachi prospect … has provided considerable upside to the potential of Regal becoming a leading hydrocarbon producer in the region”.

50.

This announcement was misleading and Regal failed to take reasonable care when making it, in breach of AIM Rule 9.

The Board is focused on maximising the value of the Company’s existing portfolio
for Minerva’s shareholders. In particular, shareholders should be aware that the
Company has been in discussions with a number of parties with respect to a
disposal of its Wigmore Street, London W1 property and has received offers which
represent material premia to the book value as at 30 June 2009.

There was little change in core inflation, which edged up to 1.8% in October from 1.7% in September, thereby staying in the 1.5-1.8% range that it has held since February. Interestingly, service sector inflation fell to a record low of 2.3% in October.

Consumer price inflation is likely to rise appreciably further over the next few months as it is pushed up by ongoing unfavourable base effects resulting from the substantial falling back in oil prices in the final months of 2008 and early months of 2009, as well as last December’s Value Added Tax cut from 17.5% to 15.0% dropping out of the calculation. Furthermore, VAT will rise back up to 17.5% in January. Sterling’s weakness is likely to have some further upward impact on inflation in the near term at least. Consequently, consumer price inflation looks set to rise above 2.0% before the end of this year and to reach 2.5% or higher in the first quarter of 2010.

Separation to be effected by a demerger of Worldwide, aim to complete by 31 March 2010.

Balance sheet to be strengthened by £1.1bn of planned financing including a £200m convertible bond issue launched today. Around £700m of the £1.1bn equates to refinancing (including bonds maturing in 2012) with the remainder being an increase in cash and facilities. Worldwide’s cash and facilities increase by c. £300m to total £500m with CWI’s increased by c. $200m to total c. $800m once the 2012 bonds have been repaid in 2012 ($311m).

John Pluthero to be Chairman of Worldwide and Jim Marsh to be CEO. We do not expect John Pluthero’s day to day involvement to change.
Discussions with the pension trustees are ongoing and C&W expects that the pension assets and liabilities will be split equally between Worldwide and CWI. At its recent interim results, C&W announced an IAS 19 deficit of £305m with £75m of additional funding agreed.

No details provided on future dividend policy at this stage although management highlights the 12% dividend growth (to 9.5p) expected for 09/10 as a sign of confidence in future prospects.

But the iron ore joint venture is a long way from completion. It has its
own gauntlet to run with the European, Chinese and Japanese competition
authorities, and rumours are rife that the two sides are finding it hard
to nut out the details of a deal.

Under the current terms, BHP will pay USD5.8bn to RIO (once all
expansion spending during the negotiation period have been netted out)
to create a joint venture of two equal partners, sharing mines,
infrastructure and product mix, but each marketing their own half of the
total production. Both sides are publicly standing firm behind the joint
venture but each has the ability to upset the deal (which is due to be
formalised into a binding agreement by December 5) for its own ends.

The threat of another hostile bid by BHP may be enough to stop RIO
pushing for a higher equalisation payment, particularly when you
consider the damage caused to the reputation of its board by the 2008
BHP tilt.

- Hearings strength being attributed to vauge, renewed takeover chatter
- Rumor states that MSFT interested party @ €42
- Reminder: On Nov 11 -SAP.GE: CEO: Does not see company as takeover target -
Die Welt