October, 2009
Intervene or do not intervene, there is no try
World war. Cold war. Terror war. Star wars. Global FX wars! Welcome to the search for the new global supreme currency – or perhaps a basket of trade weighted indexed currencies.
Indeed, what began as the race to devalue has begun to irk those bearing the brunt of appreciation on the other side.
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville on Friday morning,
- No exit for South Korea.
- How to spot a takeover target – quant style.
- Rupert gears up for the battle of the e-reader.
- Big Blackrock.
- Carbon indicators.
Markets live transcript 9 Oct 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:05 on 9 Oct 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder (BE) NH:Hi there NH:welcome to Alphaville
How to spot a takeover target – quant style
We all know M&A is back (or is supposed to be), and with the revival, various lists of possible takeover targets.
And here is another from Citigroup – but with a twist. The targets have been generated by a logit regression model with inputs from 1,000 deals stretching all the way back to 1994.
No exit for South Korea
If South Korea’s decision on Friday to hold interest rates is anything to go by, Australia’s shock move earlier in the week to raise did not – as some suggested – signal the start of a co-ordinated exit strategy by central banks.
Rupert gears up for the battle of the e-reader
It doesn’t happen often so when it does, you know something is afoot in the world of News Corp. Rupert Murdoch, who is currently on a swing through North Asia, has been personally visiting top management at a number of electronics makers and other companies in Japan and South Korea.
Big BlackRock
In any discussion about winners from the financial crisis, US money manager BlackRock must be the lead contender – having landed a series of lucrative contracts over the past year from US efforts to clear up the financial mess,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- The real reason why capitalism is so crash prone.
- Who really controls Tim Geithner?
- The City’s cocaine survivors.
- The unhappy 30-yr Treasury auction.
- Mustachioed men make more money.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Philip Stephens: Enough of the politics of pessimism
Something has gone wrong in Britain. Elections are a time to cheer up the voters, even,
AV after dark
On FT Alphaville late Thursday,
- Bailout watch, US Federal Housing Administration edition.
- The interesting lesson from the RBA rate hike.
- US consumers’ credit problem.
Over in the Long Room,
Asia steps in to support dollar
Asian central banks intervened heavily in the currency markets on Thursday to stem the rise of their currencies against the US dollar amid fears that their exports could be losing ground to China, report the FT.
Bernanke remarks boost greenback
The dollar rose against the yen for the first time in five days – to Y89.06 from Y88.39 on Friday – after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves,
UK probes RBS, Lloyds loan levels
UK regulators are probing whether RBS and Lloyds are failing to meet officially mandated lending targets by deliberately pricing loans to small and medium-sized businesses at artificially high levels. The government,
Fed tests ‘reverse repo’ trades
The Federal Reserve has begun conducting small-scale tests of trades called “reverse repos” on Wall Street that would enable it to drain cash from the financial system once it decides to roll back its current loose monetary policy.
Bundesbank to be sole regulator
Germany’s new government will appoint the Bundesbank, the German central bank, as sole regulator for banks and strip Bafin, the financial market watchdog, of its banking remit, officials said on Thursday.
Wynn Macau shares leap on debut
Wynn Macau, the casino company led by billionaire Stephen Wynn, rose as much as 13% in early trading in its Hong Kong debut after raising $1.63bn in the city’s second-largest IPO this year, reports Bloomberg.
Tengzhong set to seal Hummer deal
China’s Tengzhong may finalize a deal to buy GM’s Hummer business for about $150m on Friday, in China’s biggest brand grab since Lenovo bought IBM’s PC unit in 2005, reports Reuters. A successful deal would also mark the first major acquisition of distressed US auto assets in the global downturn by Chinese companies seeking to acquire high-profile names and Western technology.
UK, Spain hit at Magna’s Opel plan
The political row over Magna International’s plan to buy Opel escalated on Thursday when UK and Spanish politicians lashed out at the carmaker’s restructuring plan, culminating in Madrid boycotting a planned ministerial talks on state-backed financing for the deal on Friday in Berlin.
Vivendi mulls NBC Universal sale
French telecoms and media company Vivendi is considering selling its 20% stake in NBC Universal this year, reports the WSJ. However a final decision will not be made until at least mid-November and will depend on whether Vivendi can get a good price,
CME head backs derivatives reform
A powerful exchange chief has brushed aside concerns over the regulation of OTC derivatives, in comments likely to bolster support for the proposed reforms. US and EU regulators insist that most OTC derivatives be shifted onto formal exchanges and processed through clearing houses,
Ladbrokes in £275m cash call
A collapse in Q3 profits combined with receding prospects of renewing lending facilities on keen terms prompted UK bookmaker Ladbrokes to launch a heavily discounted £275m cash call. Chris Bell, chief executive,
UK’s JJB Sports in £100m offering
JJB Sports, which narrowly avoided administration in April, will on Friday announce a share placing and open offer which will raise close to £100m, more than the sporting goods retailer’s total market cap of £86.5m.
Veriana plans ‘movie derivatives’
Being able to bet on the profit potential of a movie inched closer to reality on Thursday after a second company in the film business applied to US regulators to set up a “movie derivatives” exchange.
US probes mainframes market
The US Department of Justice has begun a preliminary investigation of the mainframe computer market, potentially drawing fresh scrutiny of dominant mainframe maker IBM more than half a century after US regulators first took action to curb its power.
Spy probe clears Deutsche chiefs
Frankfurt prosecutors on Thursday cleared Deutsche Bank’s top management and supervisory board members of allegations that they were involved in illegal acts when the bank hired detectives to spy on one of their shareholders.
Overnight markets: Up
Asian stocks rose on Friday, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its biggest weekly advance in a month, as memory-chip prices climbed, gold traded at a record for a third day and US jobless claims dropped.
Bailout watch, US Federal Housing Administration edition
We suspect this counts as Schadenfreude, but according to Edward Pinto, a former Fannie Mae executive, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) may need a major cash infusion from the US government.
Consider,
CDS report: Alcoa and retail sales boost sentiment
Markit’s Gavan Nolan wrote this CDS report
European credit indices resumed their rally after yesterday’s brief hiatus. But the spread tightening was modest compared to movements earlier this week, and the rally in both credit and equity markets lost momentum in the afternoon.