Here it is – the number markets have been holding their collective breath for.
US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 according to the first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Which means most economists, who had predicted a rise of 3.2 per cent, will be breathing a sigh of relief. It also means Goldman economist Jan Hatzius was more than a little bit off with his lowered forecast of 2.7 per cent.
And it is, of course, the first growth since Q2 2008. All we have to worry about now is the risk of a double-dip recession, or a diminishing sine wave, or a WWW.
Here’s the release, with our highlights:
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 5). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 24, 2009.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.
Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.11 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change.
Related links:
Crystal ball gazing with Goldman – FT Alphaville
What shape the US economic recession and recovery? – FT Alphaville
The technical end of the recession doesn’t mean much – FT Alphaville