Much as we love him, we must report that Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has finally lost it. Here’s the evidence – from his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note to clients on Thursday:
So far, the backup for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the nearby high established in August.
Fibonacci analysis!?!? That, surely, is the domain of wacko tip sheets and self-help investment seminars.
It seems the Dow’s journey above the 10,000 mark finally tipped Dave over the edge:
The media are certainly going to town on this news but it is, in fact, old news; it’s “only” the 26th time the Dow has managed to cross this milestone.
Dave, of course, has been leading us all in fighting the tape these past few months. A selfless act – and also a bit foolhardy, in hindsight. Look at the sad result:
This still seems to be a purely technically driven market, though excitement continues to build over a company’s ability to surpass low-balled expectations on earnings and revenues. This next up-leg may be the last gasp, but the strength could carry it to the 1,098 gap or the 1,121 50% Fibonacci retracement (that’s 3% more).
There’s one encouraging sign though: Dave has cut back his output to three pages daily, compared with the usual six or more.
Painful to say it, but the only cure here is to hide in a bear cave (as SocGen’s Albert Edwards is clearly doing), and wait…
Related links:
Fuming with Dave – FT Alphaville
Dave’s furious – FT Alphaville
Rosenberg: ‘I stand accused of having missed the turn’ – FT Alphaville