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Markets live transcript 24 Sep 2009

Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:07 on 24 Sep 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Miles Johnson, FT (MJ)

NH:
hola
NH:
this is Markets Live
NH:
FT Alphaville’s daily waltz around the market
NH:
Miles is here today
NH:
and we are sorry for being late
MJ:
Hello
NH:
right Miles
NH:
another busy day
NH:
lots to get through
MJ:
There is a fair bit to get though this morning
MJ:
Have you seen this Willem Buiter talking ad on FT.com Neil?
NH:
no
NH:
an advert?
NH:
crikey
NH:
he speaks
MJ:
I can’t actually hear it myself right now, but it look pretty sharp
MJ:
We should get you and Paul doing some of those
NH:
certainly not. Anyway I think Paul is busy enough in NY, trying to selling Alphaville to the Yanks
NH:
eg
NH:
his latest interview
NH:
can be found here
NH:
Stacy tells me the PR blitz is killing him
NH:
poor thing
NH:
and so will the fall in the value of the Great British Krona
NH:
which is getting thumped this morning
MJ:
Yup, sterling getting hit this morning
MJ:
Down at a five month low against the euro
MJ:
After commment from Mervyn King that a weaker pound was rebalancing the UK economy
NH:
hmmm
NH:
a euro buys 0.912p
NH:
and against the dollar
NH:
$1.6194
MJ:
He was speaking to the Newcastle Journal
MJ:
Said this
MJ:
“That rebalancing of the UK economy that I have been talking about for about 10 years, is very necessary. I think the fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful to that process but there’s no doubt that what we need to see now is a shift of resources into net exports – whether directly or in producing things that compete with imports that help to reduce the trade deficit so I wish The Journal well with its campaign.”
NH:
very nice
NH:
so we are going to devalue our way out of this mess
MJ:
You could take it that way
NH:
but do we actually produce anything to export?
MJ:
Why of course
NH:
like what?
MJ:
We have plenty of captains of industry looking out for the good of the UK economy
NH:
such as Mike Ashley
NH:
Philip Green
NH:
Stuart Rose
NH:
they are all importers of stuff
NH:
anyway
NH:
lets have a quick look at the market
NH:
and then on to
NH:
some questions on the right
NH:
DNO people are interested in
NH:
and the bizzare rise in Songbird
NH:
we also have some RAW for you
RAW is market chatter – information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
11:13AM
NH:
MIles what is the FTSE doing?
MJ:
Well it was weak first thing, off about 40 points, but has predicably rallied back
MJ:
Now off 9 points at 5130
NH:
(Chopper it is up on our screens, but not on others. Contact your data providers. Lots of confusion around).
NH:
so the rally rolls on
NH:
or will do by the end of the day
MJ:
Right Neil
MJ:
Should we have a look at DNO?
NH:
yep
NH:
but via backdoor route
NH:
Heritage Oil
Heritage Oil (HOIL:LSE): Last: 495.70, down 4.3 (-0.86%), High: 508.00, Low: 487.40, Volume: 696.34k
NH:
Now, there’s a feeling with the price around the 500p level
NH:
that someone might look to gatecrash its proposed merger with Genel and bid
NH:
in fact, here’s how one analyst put it yesterday
NH:
The Heritage price continues to take a knocking as a result of all the odd happenings at DNO, however my oft held view that others may be ready to pounce would be more than confirmed if the price falls below 500p, at this level I consider it to be outstanding value even bearing in mind country risk. BUY
MJ:
DNO. Now there is a story.
MJ:
ave you seen the price action this morning?
NH:
they’ve started trading again?
MJ:
oh yes
NH:
go on
MJ:
they have halved
MJ:
and scary stuff like this is coming over the wire
MJ:
RTRS-NORWAY’S FINANCIAL WATCHDOG SAYS ASKS FOR POLICE PROBE OF DNO SHARE SALE
NH:
OK
NH:
not nice
NH:
the backstory here is that Kurdish government have suspended DNO activities in the country
NH:
Now, this is a pretty complex story
NH:
but essentially, the Kurds are miffed that the Olso stock exchange revealed details of share sale that involved their oil minister
NH:
the Kurds are now saying their reputation has suffered “unjustifiable” and “incalculable” harm and are now threatening to bank DNO from the country
MJ:
yep
MJ:
and brokers reckon this could be good news for Heritage and its merger partner Genel because they have good relationships in the country
NH:
so they could benefit from someone else’s misery
MJ:
something like that
NH:
have a look at this
NH:
read through for HOIL,below 5 quid,counter bid rmrs will resurface,Genel has good contacts with KRG so should be better treated,if DNO lose licence could go to Genel/Heritage,the merger should be close FTSE weighting etc and expecting news from Uganda soon
NH:
what are Heritage doing on this?
MJ:
Down 6p at 494p
NH:
right thanks for that
NH:
just looking at DNO again
NH:
still off 45%
NH:
let’s move on
11:20AM
NH:
here’s an interesting tid bit I picked up from Credit Suisse this morning
NH:
Rallies don’t occur in straight lines. Our technical analyst, David Sneddon,
would also highlight a degree of shorter term risk with the FTSE 100 and the
S&P 500 trading nearly 20% above their 200-day moving averages. 90% of
NYSE stocks are above that trend line prompting the question as to whether
sentiment is running ahead of valuation and fundamentals in many stocks.
11:21AM
NH:
Right Songbird
NH:
now we are pretty sure they stock is up
NH:
and other data providers have not adjusted for today’s big equity fund raising
NH:
however,
NH:
the price still looks bonkers
NH:
whether it is up or down
MJ:
The price my terminal shows is Songbird down 90 per cent
NH:
as I said
NH:
up or down
NH:
2.5p looks wrong
NH:
for example
NH:
big open offer, nearly 100 for 1 at 1p, Qataris investing at that level to rescue them from their debt mountain. Ex the entitlement today, there are going to be 63 billion in issue, they are effectively trading at 8 times their NAV at the moment!
NH:
i got that from a broker earlier
MJ:
8 times NAV?
MJ:
That is quite crazy
NH:
it is
MJ:
What is Songbird anyway?
NH:
it is complicated
NH:
but ultimately it is the company that controls Canary Wharf
NH:
now
NH:
from the brokers I have talked to this morning
NH:
can’t figure out who would be buying at 2.5p
MJ:
So what are the details of this cash call?
NH:
basically grillions of shares being issued
NH:
and the ex-rights price should be something around 1.26p
NH:
apparently
NH:
there has been buying by retail punters
NH:
anyway
NH:
here are the details of the call
NH:
The Board of Songbird today announces full details of its intention to raise
gross proceeds of £1.03 billion through:
NH:
* A Placing of 43,025,116,080 New Ordinary Shares at 1 penny per New Ordinary
Share to raise approximately £430 million;
* A Compensatory Open Offer of 18,974,938,930 New Ordinary Shares at 1 penny
per New Ordinary Share to raise approximately £190 million;
* An Issue of 275,000,000 Preference Shares at 100 pence per Preference Share
to raise £275 million; and
* A new credit facility of £135 million.
MJ:
Wow, those are very big numbers
NH:
paper everywhere
MJ:
43,025,116,080 New Ordinary Shares!
NH:
Both the Placing and the Compensatory Open Offer comprising, in aggregate,
62,000,055,010 New Ordinary Shares are underwritten.
MJ:
MJ:
The mind boggles
NH:
i know
NH:
but Songbird should emerge
NH:
with a much stronger balance sheet
NH:
and some interesting backers
NH:
whether that justifies a price of 2.5p
NH:
I can’t say
NH:
As previously announced, the Company intends to use the proceeds of the
Fundraising to purchase its £880 million Citi senior loan facilities (the “Citi
Facilities”) at a 5 per cent. discount to the outstanding principal and accrued
interest and to purchase an 8.45 per cent. stake in Canary Wharf Group (“CWG”)
from Commerzbank AG for £112.5 million (excluding expenses).

The Board believes that the Fundraising, the Citi Loan Repurchase and CWG Share
Purchase will:

* place the Songbird Entities on a more secure, longer-term financial footing;
* allow the Company to simplify further its capital and governance structure;
* potentially improve liquidity in the Company’s Shares which are admitted to
trading on AIM; and
* provide an attractive basis for increasing the Company’s stake in CWG’s
property portfolio.

The Board also believes that, for Shareholders, the Compensatory Open Offer
presents an attractive basis for acquiring an indirect interest in the CWG’s
property portfolio.

NH:
Further, the Company is also proposing to reorganise and simplify its share
capital structure which will result in a single class of Ordinary Shares, traded
on AIM, in addition to unlisted Preference Shares which will be held by Qatar
Holding LLC (“Qatar Holding”) and Fullbloom Investment Corporation (“FIC”), a
wholly owned subsidiary of China Investment Corporation (“CIC”). The existing
Class A and SG Shares will be converted into Ordinary Shares and the B Shares
will be renamed Ordinary Shares.
NH:
and just to make things a bit more complicated
NH:
the A shares will become B shares
NH:
got all that Miles?
MJ:
Thanks for that. I might have to go and wrap a cold towel around my head
NH:
right
NH:
the spread currently on Songbird is
NH:
2.2p – 2.4p
MJ:
Where are the shares now Neil?
NH:
Songbird up 1.08p at 2.336p on Reuters anyway
NH:
enough of that I think
NH:
where to now
NH:
didn’t you have some RAW miles
11:29AM
MJ:
Well Microsoft came out this morning
MJ:
to nip that Electronic Arts acquisition rumour in the bud
MJ:
Which was a particularly virulent rumour yesterday
MJ:
EA shares jumped more than 8 per cent. Would hardly be a surprise if it took a bit of a tumble when New York opens today
MJ:
But there have been a few Microsoft-related stories going around
NH:
Bryce was picking up talk that Microsoft were looking at Autonomy which was in today’s the London market report. That story is doing the rounds again this morning.
NH:
and
NH:
Autonomy strong this morning
NH:
up 17p at £15.80
MJ:
But before anyone gets too excited
MJ:
this probably has quite a lot to do with Merrill Lynch raising jacking its price target for Autonomy to 1900p from 1660
NH:
Do you have any of that?
MJ:
Well I do. But I would hardly call it a riveting read
MJ:
They reckon the new chairman will smooth things over with some of the more sceptical investors.
MJ:
Here is a taster
MJ:
Large proportion of business is non-compliance driven
Over the past few years we heard a lot of management statements like “95% of
our deals are compliance driven”. These statements helped to calm investors
nerves but we are not sure these comments fully reflected the true situation.
Before the acquisition of Zantaz in September 2007 Autonomy generated about
$300mn in revenue, only a very small fraction of this with the compliance solution
Aungate. The acquisition of Zantaz added another dimension to the company and
the combination of Zantaz’s e-mail archiving capabilities and Autonomy’s search
related features created a winning offering for many banks suffering from litigation
issues post the subprime crisis.
The result, in our view, was a situation in which the fast growing compliance
driven revenue balanced the weakness in the non-compliance business.
However, now during the recovery we have a double positive effect as the
compliance revenue will continue to perform well while total revenue is gaining
additional momentum from the return to growth in the non-compliance business.
We are changing our model to adjust for this situation and are increasing our
2010 revenue estimate from $845mn to $881mn (2011 goes from $945mn to
$995mn).
MJ:
New chairman could address communication issues
For a while now we have seen a large divide in the investor base between bulls
and bears. Part of the issue is that the company has grown significantly in size
but still deals with the capital markets like a small start-up. We believe the recent
appointment of an independent chairman (Robert Webb) could address some of
the investor concerns by improving the communication and disclosure.
We believe some of the bear arguments could easily be discussed with the
investment community without creating heated arguments. For example, one
argument we hear very often is that Autonomy is just a serial acquirer that
focuses on earnings upgrades through acquisitions. However, the long term
vision of the management team has always been to create a corporate platform
for all unstructured data and so far every acquisition by Autonomy helped it to
make this platform vision more compelling.
NH:
now that is interesting. Merrill are basically saying Mike Lynch should not talk to the City because he always ends up having a fight with analysts.
NH:
Lynch no dount thinks he is smarter than them
NH:
are they believe they are smarter than him
NH:
solution
NH:
don’t let him out of Cambridge
NH:
and let the chairman handle all the tough stuff about accounting policies
MJ:
Evo are a lot more sceptical
NH:
Lynch won’t like that
MJ:
For people who follow this company the criticisms will be familiar
MJ:
“aggressive” estimates and the like
MJ:
Our first core concern over the stock is the aggressiveness of Q4 estimates, with $237m of revenue required and a >60% EBIT margin in order to hit FY09E estimates. The underlying 30% year-on-year revenue growth performance this requires looks improbable, while 60% margins are almost unprecedented. Meanwhile, the falloff in “megadeal” revenue to $11.5m in Q2 from $20m in Q1 is concerning as litigation volumes have notably failed to increase in this recession. A new divisional structure reflecting the new “probabilistic structured” product is an interesting possibility: additional marketing cost on top of the $10- $15m announced in Q2 is also possible
MJ:
“Changing business models” raises issues: Our second concern revolves around
deferred revenue performance and cash conversion that we regard as subpar. In
particular, the “changing of business model” at ZANTAZ post-acquisition that has
apparently been revealed during recent market debate over the stock, is in our view
a potentially important explanation for these issues. We believe that ZANTAZ was
largely a prepaid-subscription revenue model prior to acquisition, but that some new
business is now under a licence up-front and hosted in arrears business model. A
key question is to find whether existing ZANTAZ business has been renegotiated
onto new terms and if so, to what extent. Further detail in this debate is
fundamental to assessing the organic growth profile of the company and hence the
sector premium rating.
MJ:
Clouds descending on long term growth: We believe the organic growth story is
now completely obscured, which is key to the enormous 8x FY09E EV/Sales rating,
and highlights the importance of Q3 and Q4 deferred revenue performance. Both Q1
and Q2 deferred revenue was disappointing in our view and the attributed causes –
delays to Interwoven maintenance revenues and the effect of discontinuation of
services business – should be one-off.
NH:
thanks for that
NH:
for the record
NH:
Bryce does not think much of the Microsoft bid rumour in Autonmy
NH:
and he is our expert on all things software
11:36AM
NH:
So where to next? Sanofi-Aventis should be doing well.
MJ:
They should
MJ:
Our pharma correspondent is behind us right now doing a video about this HIV treatment trial
NH:
That’s the one
MJ:
Well, it does feel very wrong sided to be looking at the share price reaction to a treatment that could save millions of lives
MJ:
But others will be able to examine the medical significance of this study far better than we can
MJ:
So, yes, Sanofi shares are off this morning in spite of the news
MJ:
Rather counter intuitively really, as you would expect some sort of good will bounce
MJ:
Off 0.2 per cent to EUR50.80
NH:
thanks for that
NH:
a couple more bits of RAW to finish up on
NH:
before we look at a few other things
MJ:
Go on
NH:
Man Group
MJ:
Whats the story there? More bid rumours?
NH:
yep – this story will not die
NH:
latest name in the frame is Blackrock
MJ:
Hang on. They haven’t even finished digesting BGI yet
NH:
true
NH:
but they are ambitious
Man Group (EMG:LSE): Last: 302.40, down 1.2 (-0.40%), High: 308.00, Low: 299.40, Volume: 3.22m
NH:
and also there are some bid rumours around in Dairy Crest
NH:
not sure who would buy them
NH:
and they are actually down at the moment
NH:
off 7.5p at £13.14
11:41AM
NH:
right
NH:
just going back to the Mr King
NH:
and his efforts to devalue the pound
NH:
did you see the story in the Telegraph
NH:
about economist being called to Threadneddle Street
NH:
for some education
MJ:
I must have missed that
NH:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/
6224090/Bank-calls-crisis-meeting-for-experts.html
MJ:
re-education eh?
NH:
The Bank of England has summoned the City’s leading economists to an unprecedented meeting in Threadneedle Street, as the pound plunges amid growing confusion over its radical Quantitative Easing (QE) policy.
NH:
The Bank will host a seminar of all London’s major economists next Tuesday – the first time it has invited them in en masse in recent memory – in what has been construed as a sign that it fears market participants are starting to lose faith in its efforts to pump cash into the economy. The move has also sparked speculation that it is poised to announce a major change to the monetary policy framework, although insiders dismissed such suggestions
NH:
will be interesting to see comment which follows from that
11:44AM
NH:
Right, time to head to the pub
MJ:
Bit early for that isn’t it?
NH:
never to early for a drink at the Toxic Pub Company
MJ:
eh?
NH:
Punch Taverns
MJ:
oh, I see
NH:
now, did you see the comments from Andy Brough in the paper this morning
MJ:
No, missed those
MJ:
what’s his view?
NH:
well you can read the full piece by Pan Yuk here
NH:
but here’s a taster
NH:
Punch Taverns should consider selling off all its pubs and winding itself down progressively over the next 18 months, according to one of its top-10 shareholders.
Andy Brough, fund manager at Schroders, which owns a 3.4 per cent stake in Punch, said it would be in investors’ best interests if the indebted pub group called time on its business.
He said.“If NAV [net asset value] is estimated by Merrill Lynch in a recent note at 340p and the share price is at 120p, then doesn’t it make sense for the company to sell off its pubs, pay back its debts and return whatever’s left to shareholders?
“The acquisition of a large number of tenanted pubs by using large amounts of debt was a financial experiment,”
NH:
essentially he is saying the Toxic Pub Co financial experiment has failed
MJ:
what, securitising pub revenues and taking on debt against for the next 30 years?
NH:
yep, he reckons this branch of frankstein finance has not worked and it is time for Punch Tavs to admit than and wind itself up
NH:
and Brough thinks that could generate a lot of value for shareholders because the share price is below the NAV
MJ:
interesting theory
NH:
yep, and I reckon it will remain just that
NH:
because how the hell would Punch sell 8,300 pubs?
NH:
more to the point who would buy them
MJ:
8,300 pubs!
MJ:
a couple of years ago I guess you could have built houses on them
MJ:
alas no more
NH:
actually, Jamie Rollo
NH:
the very good leisure analyst at MOST
NH:
was looking at this topic a month or so again and came to broadly the same conclusion
NH:
but with one caveat
NH:
he thinks Punch’s NAV could slip below 200p this because of write downs
MJ:
got the note?
NH:
yep
NH:
and I am going to paste it now
NH:
Summary. We estimate that Punch’s NAV is currently 290p
per share before any year end pub impairments. While this is
over twice the current share price, we don’t think that this
should offer much support. The NAV is vulnerable to further
impairment charges – we think that impairments could bring
NAV per share down to around 200p per share at year end. It is
important to remember that in any case the NAV per share in
Punch’s accounts would not be equivalent to the value of the
company if it sold all of its pubs and paid off all of its debt today
– the value of the pubs on Punch’s balance sheet is the value to
Punch, and a buyer may not be able to make as much profit
from a pub as Punch and so would pay less for that pub.

NH:
We think that, before further impairments, Punch’s NAV is
290p per share. We take Punch’s net assets at H1 (£1,311m),
add £350m from the placing, deduct the £360m for disposals
that have taken place since H1, add £540m for the debt that the
company will have been able to pay off with disposal proceeds
assuming a 33% discount, deduct an amount for the discount
to book value at which recent disposals were made (5% of
£360m, so £18m), and add H2’s retained profit. As shown in
the table below, this results in a value of 290p per share.

NH:
It looks unlikely that impairments of Punch’s estate are
over. Punch said that its most recent disposals have been at
‘mid single digit’ discounts to book value. So far the company
has impaired its assets by £295m at the end of 2008 and
£147m at H1 this year, so in total a 7% write-down on the value
of its assets at H1 2008. Punch reviews the values of each pub
every year for impairment by comparing its carrying value on
the balance sheet with its ‘value in use’, and the value in use is
arrived at by discounting the pub’s expected future cashflows.
Cashflows are calculated as EBITDA less capital expenditure,
and like for like profits in Punch’s leased estate were down 11%
in 2009. This means that the base for Punch’s five-year
cashflow forecasts will on average be at least 11% lower
(although the fact that many of Punch’s 2009 disposals have
been from the tail will partly mitigate this).
NH:
In addition, the discount rate that Punch uses is based on
the company’s estimate of its own WACC. The company
said last year that if it had used a WACC 1% higher, its
impairment would have been £77m higher, and we expect that
Punch’s equity placing earlier this year will have led to an
increase in its WACC of around 1%. Only £35m of the 2008
impairment related to leased pubs that the company did not
then plan to dispose of, so we think that there is plenty more
scope for further write-downs, and we think that a further
write-down of 10% of the value of the estate does not look
unreasonable.
MJ:
thanks for that. We should give people a moment to digest
NH:
no probs
NH:
and before we get called perma bears
NH:
who are always negative on stocks like Punch
NH:
here’s something positive which came out of Evo Securities this morning
NH:
EVO TAKE – Today we are upgrading Punch Taverns to buy from sell with a 160p share price target (was 120p). What matters are not absolute property valuations but the gap between pub sale values and the price discount at which debt can be re-purchased. Our share price target is at a 50% discount to Punch’s NAV of 314p.
NH:
DETAILS – So, what’s changed? We have always argued that there is a good business inside Punch but it would take years to get there. What’s different is that in the last quarter Punch has had a successful rights issue, sold c400 pubs and is it has retired c£1bn of debt, some 25% of its debt mountain. Trading may well collapse to nothing in a significant percentage of its estate, but the asset value for alternative use doesn’t.
NH:
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION – The growing debate about Punch will focus on its NAV. We expect impairments on the tail of the estate but the core estate is unlikely to be impaired as valuers will disregard valuation peaks and troughs, preferring instead to focus on the long term cash flows of good pub assets on commercial 20-year FRI leases.

NH:
not sure I buy that
NH:
but it takes two to make a market
MJ:
Enterprise Inns up as well this morning
MJ:
Up 5.6p at 138p
MJ:
any idea why?
NH:
think Merrill are pushing it in the wake of friendly chat with management yesterday
NH:
Comforting lunch with Enterprise management
We hosted a lunch with Ted Tuppen (CEO) and David George (CFO) of
Enterprise Inns. Overall, we found management to be positive on the various
issues surrounding the stock. We came away feeling more confident on trading,
regulation, debt and property values and believe a rights issue is unlikely.

Shares hit due to tenant court case and regulation
Enterprise has fallen by 16% over the past month and underperformed the market
by 21% due to noise surrounding the tenant court case and regulation fears.
In our view, the recent court case may be of limited precedence re. the
percentage of divisible profit to be charged as rent. We understand this lease is
an unusual one (only one of eight such leases for ETI), which is unassignable and
has non-standard clauses. Conversely, the ruling does conclude that the RICS
method of rental calculation, applied by the pubcos, is fair.
Regulation is clearly a near term threat for the industry and shares have been
weak as a result. However, we do not feel the beer tie would likely be removed
even if the issue was referred to the Competition Commission. We also continue
to believe there is a good chance the issue is not referred as the OFT may not
have evidence to suggest the beer tie has an adverse effect on the consumer.

NH:
Buy on weakness – in our view, substantial risk priced in
Enterprise Inns has fallen by 80% since its peak in May 2007 and now trades at a
>60% discount to its NAV per share of 360p and on 4.4x 2011E P/E. In our view,
Enterprise Inns should trade at closer to its net asset value. Any significant
discount to this is discounting a potential breach of covenants, long-term failure of
the business model or an inaccurate estate valuation on its books. We do not
believe any of these to be the case. We believe the company has over 30%
headroom in its covenants, the tenanted business model is viable post a 15-20%
industry capacity reduction

NH:
so there you have it
NH:
buy pubs
11:51AM
NH:
Okay
NH:
the fall in sterling and Telegraph story about economist being called into the Old Lady
NH:
is starting to pick up pace
NH:
just got send this
NH:
GBP / EURO PARITY LOOMS, BOE CALLS CRISIS MEETING…
- The Pound is begining to look like dangerously like 1992 &
now the BOE’s decision to call an emergency meeting next
Tuesday to address it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6224090/Bank-calls-crisis-meeting-for-experts.html

…looks like an even worse response ie. At least in 1992, they
tried and failed to fight it, now, with no options left and a
bust UK plc, they’re calling a ‘talk-shop’ to discuss with just
the same cluleless people who did’nt predict the problems in
the first place…
- In short, sub parity pound and AAA downgrade looks like its
brewing, GBP and its assets could be very marginalised.

NH:
parity looms
NH:
presumably King wants that
NH:
for the right reasons of course
MJ:
People will make hay out that
NH:
(Itzman – sorry ill and v tired today)
NH:
what’s sterling doing?
MJ:
Creeping further towards parity
MJ:
At 1.0961 against the euro now
NH:
hells teeth
NH:
have you seen autonomy?
NH:
up 4% at £16.25
NH:
stuff like this landing in my inbox
NH:
rumour microsoft to pay #28 a share for autonomy
MJ:
I hope that is not because of us
NH:
me too
NH:
because we were quite dismissive of it
NH:
I reckon it is the Merrill note
NH:
anyway
NH:
a few more things to discuss before we finish
11:56AM
MJ:
BA is moving this morning
NH:
yep
NH:
but down
NH:
off 7.8p to 222.4p
NH:
a couple of bearish notes around today
NH:
Citi have downgraded and UBS are saying BA won’t make any profit until 2012
NH:
Although we see 2010 as the low point for BA, we expect BA will likely only see positive net profits in 2012. Nevertheless, we forecast positive trends in both traffic and yield for 2011, with a stronger recovery for cargo than passenger.”
NH:
that was taken from the UBS note
NH:
as for Citi
MJ:
well, they are saying the sector is now expensive
MJ:
trades on 10x mid-cycle earning
MJ:
So instead of having all the airlines on a buy they are now being a bit more selective
MJ:
So BA gets cut from the buy list
MJ:
and their argument is essentially that the sector had got ahead of itself
MJ:
here are a few snippets
MJ:
Mid-cycle valuations attained far earlier than expected — Airline share prices have
doubled from their 12-months lows with most out-performance over the last 2-3
months, based purely on increasing appetite for early cyclicals.

Yet mid-cycle earnings unlikely for at least 2 years — We continue to expect the
airline industry to make record losses this year and break-even at best in 2010.
Therefore, 2011 is probably the earliest that mid-cycle earnings can be achieved
and more realistically 2012. The industry still suffers from over-capacity,
depressed business travel demand and inefficient cost structures and these are
unlikely to be reversed meaningfully until 2011. On average, airlines are now
trading on 10x mid-cycle EPS, the basis of most of our one year target prices. In
the long-term, though, share prices could double to the cycle peak but we do not
expect this to be for at least 4-5 years

MJ:
Selected low-cost airlines could be the exception — easyJet and Ryanair, however,
never entered sustained losses and we would expect their earnings to recover
faster than for flag carriers due to travellers trading down, their lower unit costs
and stronger balance sheets and the weakness of their competitors, who are
scaling back capacity.

Top picks are the recent laggards: Aegean, easyJet, Lufthansa and Ryanair —
These names are at the high end of the quality spectrum in this sector. We have
lowered our risk rating on easyJet to reflect its relatively strong balance sheet.

British Airways downgraded to 2H and SAS downgraded to 3S, Air France-KLM
remains a Sell/High Risk (3H) — These three are among the strongest performers
of the last 3months and are vulnerable to any disappointments. If the merger with
Iberia and JV with American Airlines happen, there could be more upside to BA.

NH:
thanks for that
NH:
right a few things we have not commented on this morning
NH:
LSE
NH:
pre-close update out
NH:
and the shares down
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSE): Last: 845.00, down 34.5 (-3.92%), High: 879.00, Low: 834.50, Volume: 1.11m
NH:
here’s what Merrill made of it
NH:
LSE’s pre-close period update covering the 5 months ended 31 Aug ’09
confirmed jobs cuts that had been widely reported in the press (e.g. FT, 26 Jun).
The company intends to reduce headcount by ~133 FTEs (~12% of the workforce
at the start of the year), yielding annualised savings of £11mn by H2’10 with a
one-off exceptional cost to achieve the savings of £14mn. This plan is consistent
with our forecasts which assume a 12% YoY headcount reduction and £15mn in
exceptional costs in FY10. The announcement confirmed IT related savings of
£10mn per annum from FY11, as previously flagged on 16 Sept. With the stock
currently trading on 14.3x our 2010E, a premium to European peers (~12.8x ex
surplus cash), we believe the market is increasingly pricing in more aggressive
cost savings and so the lack of new initiatives may disappoint.

NH:
The pre-close statement contains no revenues or profits and so the focus is likely
to be on other ‘new news’ in the release, which confirmed weakening market data
sales. The number of professional terminals receiving real time pricing data fell
4% from 30 Jun to 94,000, although this was modestly ahead of our forecast of
~92,500 (90,700 for H1’10). In the Post Trade operations, assets under custody
came in at €2.8tr, slightly ahead of our estimate of €2.7tr.

In the core cash equities business, UK volumes declined 43% YoY to £4.6bn per
day, with Italian turnover down 33% YoY to €2.8bn. Volumes have improved in
Sept (currently up ~12% month-on-month) although this mainly reflects a
seasonal bounce in activity levels following the summer lull. Guidance that the
yield on UK cash equities trading is expected to fall to ~0.85bps following the
implementation of the new tariff from 1 Sept ’09 is slightly higher than our
estimate of 0.82bps. However, LSE market share of FTSE100 value traded
continues to decline at a pace of~2% each month and currently averages ~65%
in Sept. We continue to see risks to pricing & margins as a result.
In terms of the outlook, management commented that “although market
conditions remain challenging, the Group continues to see good levels of activity
in many parts of the business”. CEO, Xavier Rolet, also highlighted “we continue
to take actions to ensure the Group is well placed to compete and develop”. The
company hosts a strategy update at 9am this morning (dial-in +44 20 7162 0025)
during which we hope to hear more about opportunities for further cost savings.
We retain our Underperform rating and will review our estimates following the
meeting.

NH:
also results out from 3i
NH:
and like the LSE
NH:
they are down too
3i Group (III:LSE): Last: 278.00, down 10 (-3.47%), High: 285.00, Low: 268.10, Volume: 2.11m
NH:
and here’s what the best analysts IMO who follows the sector things
NH:
Iain Scouller
NH:
at Oriel
NH:
As has happened in previous recoveries we expect the returns from 3i Group and the private equity sector to lag the sharp rise in quoted markets. 3i is indicating that this is likely to be the case in today’s announcement. 3i are warning that gains from earnings multiples are unlikely to fully reflect the strong performance of stock market indices since 31.03.09. Portfolio activity has been fairly subdued during the 5 months to 31.08.09, with a net cash inflow of £293m. The leverage position has obviously improved significantly since 31.03.09 (103% of NAV) to an estimated 26 to 30% of NAV at 30.09.09.
NH:
Our NAV estimate was 321-331p at September 2009, which compares with 277p at 31.03.09. We will fine-tune this estimate based on prices for quoted investments, market levels and currencies at the end of the month, but based on the pre-close we anticipate reducing this modestly to around 310-320p. Given the caution in 3i’s statement today and the sensitivity of 3i’s valuation to stockmarkets, which we believe are vulnerable to profit-taking following the strong gains, we think it appropriate to value 3i on a larger prospective discount. In deriving a price target we are increasing the discount we apply to the value of the unquoted net assets at 31.03.10 from 15% to 20%. This results in a new 6 month price target of 270p (previously 285p).
12:02PM
NH:
right must bring things to a close
NH:
have a lunch to go to in the east end
MJ:
Where?
NH:
this place
MJ:
Thats Commerxial St. Thats not the East End
NH:
it is for me
NH:
i’ll; be served pie and mash and jellied eels
NH:
no doubt
NH:
actually
NH:
the steaks look ok
NH:
“The meat had a depth of flavour that was almost tear-jerking”
Giles Coren, The Times

We’ve travelled the world in our search for the perfect beef to use for steaks. We’ve been to a Wagyu farm just outside Kobe in Japan, we’ve eaten our own body weight in USDA Prime (the best America has to offer) and have popped down to Argentina to try the meat of their Pampas grazed cattle in their native habitat. And our verdict? That the best animals for steak are well-loved traditional breeds born and raised right here in Britain.

Until recently Britain was rightly famed for producing the best beef in the world. It’s no coincidence that the animals that produce the best beef in America and Argentina originate from British cattle, even the famed Japanese Wagyu were crossbred with British breeds in the nineteenth century to improve their flavour.

Recent ‘advances’ in mass-meat production have gone some way to knock us off the top spot. It’s a crying shame, but most of the beef you buy in Britain now is produced to be sold as cheaply as possible, regardless of flavour. So it’s no surprise that it’s a pale imitation of what it once was. But there are still some fantastic producers out there using traditional breeds and traditional methods who are producing beef that still tastes better than anywhere else in the world.

MJ:
Well I hope you enjoy
NH:
let’s hope we get some stories
MJ:
“Tear jerking” steak?
NH:
yeah
NH:
i wonder if it will make me weep
NH:
let’s have a look at the wine list
NH:
Collazzi 2004, Tuscany, Italy £60.00
Gemtree Vineyards Obsidian Shiraz 2005, McClaren Vale, Australia £60.00
Michele Satta Piastraia 2003, Bolgheri, Italy £60.00
Chateauneuf-du-Pape, Chateau la Nerthe (Organic) 2004, Rhone, France £60.00
J Alberto Malbec 2007, Patagonia, Argentina £60.00
Amarone Della Valpolicella Classico 2001, Veneto, Italy £65.00
Au Bon Climat Pinot Noir “Knox Alexander” 2005, Santa Maria, California £65.00
Gevrey Chambertin “Ostrea-Vielles Vigne” Trapet (Organic) 2005, Burgundy, France £70.00
Vosne Romanee Dom. Daniel Rion 2004, Burgundy, France £70.00
Bricco dell’Uccellone Barbera d’Asti 2005, Piedmont, Italy £75.00
Cote Rotie “Champin le Seigneur” J.M. Gerin 2005, Rhone, France £75.00
Willakenzie Alliette Pinot Noir 2005, Oregon, U.S.A. £80.00
Michele Satta I Castagni 2003, Bolgheri, Italy £85.00
Chateau Gruaud-Larose 1995, Bordeaux, France £95.00
Chateau Pichon- Longueville 2001, Bordeaux, France £105.00
Stags Leap Fay Vineyards 2004, Napa, California £110.00
Bodega Noemia Malbec 2006, Patagonia, Argentina £115.00
Chateau Talbot 1996, Bordeaux, France £120.00
Chateau Leoville Barton 1988, Bordeaux, France £140.00
Chateau Haut Brion 1996, Bordeaux, France £320.00
Chateau Lafite Rothschild 1990, Bordeaux, France
NH:
sorry
NH:
the last one is
NH:
£800 a bottle
NH:
my host says the house red is excellent
NH:
what a surprise
NH:
looks like the place is getting some good reviews on the right
NH:
Okay
NH:
I must go
NH:
will take hours to get to the east end
MJ:
Thanks for the comments
MJ:
Same time same place tomorrow
MJ:
Bye
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