A slew of data released on Monday suggest US commercial and residential markets are still in the throes of dysfunction.
Reuters – citing data ‘obtained exclusively’ from Equifax, the credit bureau – reported US mortgage delinquencies hit a record in August (emphasis ours):
Among U.S. homeowners with mortgages, a record 7.58 percent were at least 30 days late on payments in August, up from 7.32 percent in July, according to the data obtained exclusively by Reuters.
August marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in delinquencies, and the report showed an accelerating pace. By comparison, 4.89 percent of mortgages were 30 days past due in August 2008, while in August 2007, the rate was 3.44 percent, Equifax data showed.
The rate of subprime mortgage delinquencies now tops 41 percent, up from about 39 percent in each of the prior five months.
The results, which correlate with consumer bankruptcy filings, suggest U.S. homeowners remain under financial stress despite signs of improving sentiment and fundamentals in the U.S. housing market.
Calculated Risk noted the Equifax approach differs from that used by the Mortgage Bankers Association, which reported even higher numbers:
The MBA reported 9.24% of all loans outstanding were delinquent at the end of the 2nd quarter. Another 4.3% of loans were in the foreclosure process.
Meanwhile, Moody’s reported commercial real estate prices, as measured by its proprietary CPPI benchmark, had fallen steeply in July amid low transaction volumes:
The CPPI was down 5.1% from June after having declined by only 1% the prior month. It is now 30.8% below what it was a year earlier and 38.7% below the peak measured in October of 2007.
Overall market transaction volume continued the pattern of calendar 2009. “The market has averaged about 375 sales per month for the seven months in 2009,” said Moody”s Managing Director Nick Levidy. “Over the same time period in 2008, sales were averaging nearly 1,100 a month.”
All in all, not good news for those banks that have significant commercial and residential real estate and mortgage exposure. Here’s looking at you, Wells.
Related links:
Housing Risking Relapse Confronts Bernanke Conundrum – Bloomberg
US commercial and residential real estate datapoints still dismal – FT Alphaville
CRE datapoint du jour, Tishman Speyer edition – FT Alphaville