From Merrill Lynch, who have just called the end of the recession based on the July Research Investment Committee report. Click to enlarge:
Merrill is clearly fully on the bull side of the table, with the bank advising private clients to “give recovery a chance” (really) and take advantage of opportune government policies while they can:
But the best news for asset prices is that the global recovery is not yet selfsustaining and is likely to be very slow. Policy makers are likely to worry about the lack of jobs and the lack of credit for some time to come. And this means fiscal, monetary and financial policies are likely to remain supportive of asset prices for as well. Investors should not have to worry about exit strategies. For example, we forecast the Fed to keep the target interest rate close to zero until 2011.
That means reducing cash, getting into equities and Bric currencies, but staying in defensive investment grade corporate bonds, according to the bank.
Related links:
Doomsville – FT Alphaville
Bond: ‘History is bunk’ – FT Alphaville
Those poor, frustrated bulls – FT Alphaville