Comment, analysis and other offerings from Tuesday’s FT,
Gideon Rachman: Democracy could still win in Iran
In the short term, events in Iran are depressing and alarming – a stolen election, violence in the streets, repression. In the long term, the weekend has provided heartening evidence that Iran, and the Middle East in general, need not be immune to the great wave of democratisation that has swept the world since the late 1970s.
Insight: Mohamad El-Erian – A survivor’s guide to navigation
Last year’s shocks have given way to a greater sense of stability in financial markets, yet it would be wrong to conclude that we are returning to “business as usual”, writes Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco. The next challenge is navigating a bumpy journey to a “new normal”.
Lex: US bank lending
Somebody call the cops! The banks are not lending, notes Lex. Among the many crimes of which US banking stands accused, not lending is near the top. The banks are charged with slamming shut loan books, denying credit to hard-working families and small businesses and exacerbating the downturn. Nonsense.
View of the day: Oil prices
The surge in the oil price has naturally led to speculation about whether it can retest last year’s highs – but crude is unlikely to reach $100 a barrel in the near-term, says Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.
Rethinking rational market theory
A realisation has dawned among the most fervent advocates of financial analysis and collective investor wisdom: markets are not always rational, writes the FT’s Gillian Tett. Tthe credit crisis has forced high priests of rational market theory to question their own creed.
A plan to boost America’s fiscal health
Peter Orszag, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, writes that healthcare cost growth dwarfs any of the other long-term fiscal challenges the US faces. Nothing else we do on the fiscal front will matter much if we fail to address rapidly rising healthcare costs.
Management: Stefan Stern on rebuilding trust
Is trust a renewable resource? Few subjects are causing managers more anxiety right now than the question of trust. Without it, businesses will struggle to recover. Many are gloomy about the chances of greater levels of trust returning to corporate life. If you are viewing the world from London, a global centre of excellence for cynicism, it is hard not to be. But trust is declining just about everywhere.
Editorial comment: Does Norway’s gender laws for boards make sense?
Since last year, Norwegian listed companies have been under a legal obligation to ensure 40 per cent board representation for each gender. France and other states are considering copying the quota. It is still early but results so far seem promising.
The business of luxury: Video interview with LVMH’s Bernard Arnault
Arnault, head of LVMH, tells the FT’s editor Lionel Barber that the luxury sector is bound to see more casualties, and blames the easy availability of credit and excessive leverage for many of the industry’s recent failures.