The inflation vs deflation debate rages on. To help FT Alphaville readers, we’ve compiled a handy-list of what we’re calling inflationistas — those who are publicly betting on high or even hyper-inflation, and deflationistas — those predicting a downward spiral in prices.
For non-extremists there are also the so-called Goldilockeans, those who believe the world’s central banks will get their policy actions reasonably right — staving off deflation while avoiding high inflation. Not too hot nor too cold, as the precocious fairytale character might say.
The list — a work in progress — is below. Feel free to post additions in the comments section.
Inflationistas:
Paul Kasriel
Nassim Taleb
Marc Faber
Bill Gross
Deflationistas:
David Rosenberg (maybe)
Roger Bootle
Stephen King
Joseph Lavorgna (no link)
Paul Krugman
Goldilockeans:
Dominic Konstam
JP Morgan
And finally, if you simply can’t make your mind up, don’t worry.
FT Alphaville’s search has also yielded up the following – a new fund betting on all three scenarios:
June 2 (Bloomberg) — Invesco Ltd., manager of the Aim andPowerShares funds, opened a balanced mutual fund that seeks to protect investors when financial markets decline.
The Aim Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund will use derivativesto invest 60 percent of assets in fixed-income securities, 20 percent in stocks and 20 percent in commodities, Scott Wolle, head of Atlanta-based Invesco’s global asset-allocation group, said in an interview. The fund will invest worldwide and use borrowed money equal to as much as 35 percent of its assets.
The fund was designed to “allocate assets differently from a traditional balanced fund,” Wolle said. “It’s thinking about how to balance risk.”
The fund seeks to spread risk evenly among the three asset classes, based in part on the volatility of expected returns. It is aimed at performing well in a recession, an inflationary economy or a healthy “Goldilocks” scenario, Wolle said.