May, 2009
Study finds analyst tips don’t move prices
Analysts’ “buy” and “sell” tips have almost no effect on share prices, according to research that confounds long-held beliefs over the influence of stock-pickers and calls into question investors’ and banks’ need to pay for their services,
Managers lose sleep over recession
The recession is causing the world to literally lose sleep. The average manager is sleeping 19 per cent less than the recommended eight hours a night, the FT reported, citing a survey of respondents in five countries.
Overnight markets: Weak
Asian markets stumbled on Monday amid concerns about slumping corporate profits and uncertainty as to the sustainability of recent economic “green shoots”. The MSCI index of Asian equities ex-Japan fell 1.5 per cent in late trade.
The Weekender
On FT Alphaville this week,
- On Monday, how banks’ post-stress-test capital shortfall could have been billions bigger.
- More financial ducking and diving from the UK’s toxic Pub Cos.
- And Bill Ackman’s Gordon Gekko moment in the most expensive proxy battle yet.
Snarky quote du jour, eurotrash edition
From the Economist (emphasis ours):
THE euro area is falling into such a deep hole that the recovery, when it eventually comes, will be a long, hard journey. Figures released on Friday May 15th showed that GDP in the 16-country currency zone fell by 2.5% in the first quarter,
Spreading the GM bad news – bonfire of the dealerships
17:08 RTRS GM’S LANEVE SAYS 1,100 DEALERSHIPS ‘WERE IN DANGER OF GOING OUT OF BUSINESS ANYWAY’
17:09 RTRS GM’S LANEVE SAYS 400-500 DEALERSHIPS TARGETED FOR CLOSURE HAD AVERAGE SALES OF 35 UNITS PER YEAR
Each,
Twittering panic
Twanic?
Guatemalan Twitter user Jean Anleu – “Jeanfer” – has been arrested by police for inciting financial panic.
Specifically, for suggesting in the below pictured tweet that people should start taking their money out of Guatemalan bank Banrural.
[The Bidens, Paradigm and Ponta] There are no safe harbours in Austin, Texas
From Reuters (via hedge fund implode-o-meter) comes a snippet about a Madoff-linked collapse: Austin Capital Management is closing its $900m Safe Harbor Fund, which is understood to have sustained around $186m in losses from investments in the Madoff ponzi.
The UK’s BB debt
Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities brings us the following chart:
The clue is in the acronym (it’s a duo).
Pershing Square critique hits Target
Pershing Square scored a significant win Thursday in its ongoing proxy fight – the “most expensive of all time” – with Target Corp.
As today’s FT reports:
Target, the US discount retailer, has suffered a setback in its efforts to stave off a challenge to its board by activist investor Bill Ackman,
Why the ECB is a good bank with rubbish assets
From former Bank of England MPC member Willem Buiter’s Mavercon blog on Friday:
It is clear that if the ECB were all there is to the Eurosystem, the Euro Area would be in trouble. The ECB has negligible capital (€ 5 billion subscribed,
Lunch Wrap
On FT Alphaville this morning,
- Beam them up: Mizuho and other Japanese banks.
- Temasek doesn’t buy the green shoots story; sells BofA stake at huge loss.
- Green shoots – none in Germany.
Beam them up: Mizuho and other Japanese banks
Japanese banks have not – yet – suffered the fates of some of their western counterparts. On the contrary, the big ones have been busily making deals to buy chunks of western banks and securities companies (a la Nomura,
Markets live transcript 15 May 2009
Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:10 on 15 May 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Bryce Elder (BE) Paul Murphy, FT (PM) NH:Hello NH:Welcome to Markets Live
Temasek is not buying the ‘green shoots’ story
Singapore’s acquisitive Temasek is up to its old tricks again, buying high and selling low, as it emerged on Friday that the state-backed investment agency sold its 3 per cent stake in Bank of America in the first quarter of this year,
The clash over Resolution 13
Ferrexpo, the Ukrainian iron ore miner with a Swiss headquarters , has fascinated us for some time, in particular the stake building activities of a certain billionaire businessman, Igor Kolomoisky, and of course the recent stellar price action.
Nicht grün shooten in Deutschland
A major European Q1 datafest arrived on Friday. Blasting through all the figures released so far this morning, however, the following news jumps out.
From Bloomberg:
May 15 (Bloomberg) — The German economy contracted more than forecast in the first quarter,
Further reading
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Green shoots or yellow weeds?
- Norway’s secret.
- How low can Treasury yields go?
- A closer look at Ken Lewis.
- We are past the point of inflexion.
- Could there be a better time to be a bank?
- The known unknowns and unknown unknowns of PE valuations.
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Friday’s FT,
Philip Stephens: A Middle East peace plan puts Netanyahu on the spot
The US vice-president is sometimes lampooned for saying not quite the right thing.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- H&M says April same-store sales rise 8 per cent – statement.
- Fresnillo makes application to the OSC regarding MAG Silver – statement.
- Corporate: Irish Life,
US slates $22bn for insurers
The US Treasury will make federal bailout funds available to some US life insurers, acting on the sector’s long-running effort to get government help, reports the WSJ. The Treasury is prepared to inject up to $22bn into the insurers – including Hartford Financial,
Carlyle to pay $20m after NY probe
Carlyle Group on Thursday agreed to pay $20m following a probe by Andrew Cuomo, New York attorney-general, into alleged corruption at the state’s biggest public pension fund. The firm also became the
Belgium steps in to shore up KBC
The Belgian government on Thursday offered more state guarantees to troubled bank KBC. The bail-out, which follows earlier assistance for KBC as well as Fortis and Dexia, the rival Belgian lenders, comes after KBC reported a Q1 loss of €3.6bn ($4.9bn),
KGI to buy Taishin for $880m
Taiwan’s KGI Securities will acquire the brokerage business of Taishin Financial for NT$29bn ($880bn) to become the second-biggest equity brokerage firm in Taiwan, reports Bloomberg. KGI will pay NT$28bn in cash and NT$1bn worth of stock for the acquisition of Taishin Securities,
Crédit Agricole’s net profits fall 77%
Crédit Agricole, France’s second-biggest bank, on Thursday reported a 77% year-on-year fall in Q1 net profit, after more than doubling its loan-loss provisions to €1.1bn. Net profit of €202m ($275m) in the first quarter underperformed consensus expectations of €350m profit after losses in its investment banking and international retail businesses.
Italy’s banks upbeat on Q1 earnings
Italy’s three top banks – UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo and Generali - are profitable and relatively optimistic about prospects for the year, according to Q1 earnings reports this week. Income and profits at the three banks were significantly lower than a year ago,
Toscafund bounces back
Profits at Toscafund’s main fund fell more than 80% last year as redemptions from investors and bad bets on financial stocks stripped 60% from its value. But Toscafund Asset Management has bounced back 25% since the start of the year as the market has improved,
MGM scrambles to restructure
Metro-Goldywn-Mayer, the Hollywood studio, is considering drastic measures including a debt for equity swap with the group’s 140 lenders as it works frantically to restructure its $3.7bn debt pile. MGM,
Toyota plans top-level overhaul
Toyota Motor is planning one of the most drastic management overhauls in its 70-year history next month when Akio Toyoda, grandson of its founder, takes over as chief executive. After an unprecedented Y437bn ($4.5bn) net loss in its most recent financial year,