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Markets live transcript 22 May 2009

Markets live chat transcript for the chat ending at 12:13 on 22 May 2009. Participants in this chat were: Neil Hume, FT (NH) Paul Murphy, FT (PM)

NH:
It’s Friday
NH:
It’s 11:03
NH:
and time for Markets Live
NH:
Alphaville’s daily mooch around the markets
NH:
Murph will be joining me a moment
NH:
his Lotus Notes has just crashed and he has been forced to reboot
NH:
which could take 10mins
NH:
he has a blue screen of death at the moment
NH:
still blue screen of death
NH:
running start up scripts now
NH:
while we wait for Murph to log on
NH:
VP, you’re right
NH:
Mecom and Findel
NH:
two bits of trash blown out of the water
NH:
Findel is a particularly shocking case
NH:
this company sells singing fishes and things like that in the workplace
NH:
shares up 150% since Feb
NH:
in spite of the fact that it was some what challenged
NH:
and today we get the inevitable news
NH:
considering equity issue
NH:
can’t publish results
NH:
stock off 40%
NH:
did no one see this coming
NH:
as for Mecom
NH:
isussing billions upon billions of shares get dig itself out of huge debt hole
NH:
they are off 36% at the moment
NH:
so, the moral of the story is
NH:
holding trash can seriously damage your wealth
NH:
are you in yet Murph?
PM:
JEEZZZZZZZZZZZZ
PM:
TEN MINUTES TO REBOOT
NH:
Murph
NH:
you there?
PM:
IM HERE
PM:
and i will stop shouting now
PM:
what you been saying?
PM:
t was a lotus notes crash
NH:
Rifter, we are still writting the thing at that point
PM:
i was just sending Neil an email
PM:
That’s what crashed the box
11:10AM
NH:
anyway, welcome once again to Markets Live
PM:
Zomby markets live, more like.
NH:
Don’t say that. We’ve got to keep the readers engaged.
PM:
Oh yeah.
PM:
Do we keep our short position open over the bank holiday weekend?
NH:
You having another wobble.
PM:
No. Just wondered. Sunny weekend etc
PM:
What’s the Footsie doing now?
NH:
up, rather disappointly
NH:
mind you volumes are low
NH:
and no one is around
NH:
up 33 points at 4,378
PM:
hmm
PM:
Here’s a quick bit of negative china stuff
NH:
You really have got it in for the Chinese
PM:
No – not the Chinese themselves – just this notion that China is going to lift us all out of the economic mire.
PM:
As if China is going to start consuming all the tat that they previously shipped to the West.
PM:
Bloomberg story
PM:
Chinese Industries Yet to Have ‘Solid’ Recovery, Ministry Says

May 22 (Bloomberg) — China is yet to establish a solid foundation for a recovery in industrial production, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.

The ministry cited faltering export demand, “serious” overcapacity in industries such as steel, and falling company profitability, in a report posted on its Web site today.

Output growth may accelerate to 8 percent this quarter as stimulus spending takes effect and exceed 10 percent for the second half, the ministry said. That compares with a 7.3 percent gain in April and 5.1 percent growth in the first quarter.

A quarter of industrial companies posted losses in the first quarter, and 21 of 39 industries tracked by the ministry said profits worsened for the three months through March 31 from the first two months of this year, the report said.

The nation’s 72 big and medium-sized steelmakers posted 5.2 billion yuan ($760 million) in combined losses in the four months through April on falling prices and oversupply, the ministry said. About 40 percent of primary aluminum remains idle, it said.

11:13AM
PM:
Anyway, people asking about property
PM:
guess we should go there
PM:
straight away
NH:
Segro/Britxon you mean
PM:
SEGRO notes the announcement by Brixton earlier today and confirms that it has made a preliminary approach to the Board of Brixton with a view to entering into
discussions about a possible offer for Brixton. SEGRO currently envisages that
the consideration for any offer will be in the form of SEGRO shares*. SEGRO
would like to emphasize that there can be no certainty that an offer for Brixton
will be forthcoming. A further announcement will be made in due course if
appropriate
NH:
right
NH:
there has been an update to that statment already
NH:
Update on earlier Statement re possible offer for Brixton
plc (“Brixton”)

Further to its earlier announcement in which SEGRO stated that it “reserves the
right to introduce other forms of consideration,” SEGRO wishes to clarify that
it “reserves the right to vary the form of consideration.”

NH:
so, they are reserving the right to offer a bit of cash by the looks of things
NH:
which suggest there are serious about this
NH:
actually, just been chatting to our property correspondent Dan Thomas about this
NH:
he reckons it makes perfect sense
NH:
Segro and Brixton compete against each other
NH:
know each other well
NH:
they both build industrial sheds near Heathrow
PM:
PM:
Segro is the old Slough Estates of course
NH:
it is
NH:
anyway Dan reckons the deal makes sense
NH:
the two companies have arguably damaged each other over the years, by bidding up prices in the M4/M25 corridor
PM:
and presumably there would be synergies
NH:
I would think so
NH:
and another point – the biggest impediment to the deal was removed a couple of months back
NH:
TimWheeler, the Bob Dylan quoting former CEO of Brixton
PM:
who is that?
NH:
apparently he clashed with the Segro folk
PM:
AH
PM:
but looking at the Brixton statement , it says approaches
PM:
plural
NH:
didn’t see that
NH:
can you put it up
PM:
The Board of Brixton plc (“Brixton” or “the Company”) announces that, following the receipt of preliminary approaches relating to possible offers for the
Company, it has entered into discussions with a small number of parties. These
discussions are at a very early stage and there can be no certainty that any
offer will be made.

Following a review of further advice received in relation to Brixton’s unsecured
bonds, the Board of Brixton wishes to clarify that the gearing covenants will be
tested on the basis of the net assets published in the half-year results. The
Board of Brixton remains focused on mitigating the risk of any covenant breach.

The Board of Brixton continues to progress its options to provide the Group with
additional financial flexibility. These options include a restructuring of the
Company’s debt arrangements, a potential equity raising and further asset
disposals.

NH:
Hmmm
NH:
Dan says a lot of PE companies have looked at Brixton but just could make the numbers stand up
NH:
Segro has a big advantage as it is using paper and of course it just completed a rights issue
NH:
raised £500m and renegotiated its banking covenants
PM:
So it can Brixton on??
NH:
I think so
NH:
it has £540m of bonds and facilities set to mature by the end of 2010, albeit with £103m undrawn.
NH:
that’s Brixton
NH:
analysts reckon it needs to raise £300m
PM:
OK, some share prices
Brixton (BXTN:LSE): Last: 61.25, up 11.5 (+23.12%), High: 61.75, Low: 54.50, Volume: 5.21m
Segro (SGRO:LSE): Last: 25.00, no change, High: 26.50, Low: 24.50, Volume: 18.54m
NH:
and if you want some further background on Brixton
NH:
here’s a good piece Dan wrote a few weeks back
11:18AM
PM:
Do you think one of hte alternate bidders could be one of these vulture funds??
PM:
Lot of money has been raised recently by these things
NH:
up to £1bn
PM:
How about this Leslau cash shell thing
PM:
how is that trading this morning?
PM:
Max Property
NH:
very steady
NH:
around 125p
PM:
Still trading at a good premium to the float price
NH:
yeah
PM:
Brilliant oportunity to buy cash at a premium
NH:
yep buy £200m of cash for £250m
PM:
no brainer really
PM:
For Leslau
NH:
but you must remember
NH:
that £50m is for Leslau
NH:
that’s the market price on his property expertise
NH:
£50m of gut feel
PM:
Yep
PM:
Did it with prestbury — a decade ago
PM:
Didnt do it with Knutsford
NH:
anyway, there are loads these property vulture funds about
NH:
look at this
NH:
from today’s paper
NH:
Mountgrange, the UK investment group run by property entrepreneurs Martin Myers and Manish Chande, has raised more than £300m in equity for an opportunity fund that will invest across the residential and commercial real estate markets.
The fund is expected to have an acquisition capacity of more than £850m, given debt backing, which makes it the largest UK-only property fund for more than a year.
The fund has attracted more than 30 investors, including institutions from the US, Australia and Canada such as Hospitals of Ontario Pension Plan Trust Fund and Arizona PSPRS; a European fund of funds managed by Aberdeen Property Investors; a US fund of funds managed by Metropolitan Real Estate Equity Management as well as other private funds and a Middle East sovereign wealth fund.
PM:
Just googling this mr Manish Chande
PM:
Big into english heritage etc
NH:
and look waht happened back in march
NH:
Mountgrange Capital, the property company planning Caltongate, a controversial £300m development beside Waverley station in the heart of Edinburgh’s old town, has gone into administration.

London-based Mountgrange blamed the collapse on banks – particularly HBOS – scaling back their involvement in commercial property lending. Lloyds Banking Group, which now owns HBOS, said it could not comment because of confidentiality agreements.

The Caltongate scheme – which involved building a five-star hotel, homes and shops close to Waverley station – was opposed by heritage groups because it adjoins Edinburgh’s historic Royal Mile.

Mountgrange, established nine years ago by two well-known property developers, Manish Chande and Martin Myers, was also redeveloping land previously occupied by the Chrysler factory at Linwood, near Paisley, and was behind the Springfield Park retail development at Maidstone in Kent.

PM:
oh dear!
PM:
Where’s taht from?
NH:
from the FT
NH:
Mr Chande said Mountgrange Capital was entirely independent of the Mountgrange Real Estate Opportunity Fund, which was separately funded and had no external debt.
PM:
PM:
crowded market, property vulture fund
11:24AM
PM:
Just note briefly that HSBC’s AGM statement is out
PM:
havent had a chance to read yet
PM:
Price is up a couple of pence on that
PM:
543
NH:
Good point Hedgehog
NH:
great to see the Scottish mafia still alive and kicking
NH:
the funny thing is
NH:
wasn’t the last RBS chariman part of the mafia
NH:
and look what he did
PM:
Hmm — Sandie crombie joining RBS as non-exec
PM:
Sandie Crombie
NH:
just the man for a turnaround job
PM:
Some people would expect Mr Crombie to be busy finding a successor for himself at Standard Life
PM:
how are RBS and Llloyds fairing this morning actually?
NH:
Lloyds OK
NH:
up 3p to almost 70p
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS:LSE): Last: 41.30, up 1.4 (+3.51%), High: 41.30, Low: 40.10, Volume: 11.80m
PM:
I was just noting this Bloomberg FOI stuff
PM:
Tried to get the stress test results on Lloyds and RBS – and just got some pompus fob off from the Treasury.
PM:
We are still trying to get the stress test parameters ourselves.
PM:
We published bits of them a while back – 50% fall in house prices and a possible 16 per cent fall in GDP peak to trough.
PM:
Serious stress.
PM:
Remember those were tests, not predictions.
PM:
I know people didn’t believe the 16% number.
PM:
But that is what we were told.
NH:
but someone who would know
PM:
We will stay quiet on the matter until such time as we get some fuller information.
11:29AM
NH:
We can now offer an update to Sam’s Lunchbox
PM:
PM:
Sam’s taken a last minute day off. It’s his birthday.
PM:
But he’s failed to cancel his lunch delivery, which has now fallen into our hands.
NH:
Sam get’s his lunch from graze.com
NH:
“Nature delivered”
PM:
PM:
So we’ve opened it up.
PM:
We’ve got some “fresh crunchy apple”
NH:
“Muffin dried fruit mix”
NH:
Yoghurt coated raisins”
NH:
which were quite nice
NH:
We’re going to have to get rid of this kid
PM:
I know.
PM:
I’ll see whether I can fob him off on the paper or something.
NH:
Muffin dried fruit mix. I ask you.
NH:
How much does this cost him?
PM:
Three quid.
NH:
I could cut up my own apple.
NH:
Or use my teeth
NH:
they go everywhere with me
PM:
And look at all the packaging!
PM:
Might be good for Sam’s nutritional balance – but pretty poor news for the envionrment.
PM:
environment also
NH:
Anyway, that’s enough back-handed promotion for graze.com
NH:
Where you going for lunch?
PM:
Ivy.
NH:
Regular Ivy or Ivy Club
PM:
Er, club
NH:
Anyone interesting?
PM:
Cant say. Good company tho. PE
PM:
private equity
NH:
I am off to the Crispin at Broadgate
NH:
how the other half live
PM:
Ah
PM:
That’s wont be heaving or anything
NH:
what, on a sunny Friday ahead of Bank Holiday
NH:
should be pretty quiet
PM:
Goodness — I’d find a different venue Neil
PM:
you wont be able to get served
PM:
empty glasses rolling around broadgate etc
11:34AM
PM:
Anyway — that’s enough lunch
PM:
Now abotu Mecon?
NH:
Shouldn’t we hold for Small Cap corner
PM:
Guess so.
PM:
Not much to say,really.
PM:
It has finally, miraculously, got its refinancing together.
NH:
By issuing 9,431,925,876 shares at 1.5p apiece
PM:
NH:
Six for one flood of new equity.
NH:
man the ark
NH:
the mecom paper flood is upon us
NH:
could be London’s most actively traded stock
PM:
Market price of the old stock down 1.85p at 3.2p.
PM:
Reduce debts to 336m – got relaxed convents etc as well
PM:
Note David Montgomery on this
PM:
Chief Executive David Montgomery said: “The refinancing helps provide a new lease of life for the newspaper business. This depends on our ability to implement a new operating model and abandon the traditional working practices of the industry, focusing instead on the commercial exploitation of content across all platforms. Mecom intends to complete this modernisation process within one year leaving the company fit to take advantage of the upturn in the economy.”

PM:
Basically, he’s saying sack all sub-editors.
NH:
We’ve already done that here on AV.
PM:
Don’t go there Neil.
NH:
But we have to ask whether Montgomery really can deliver this “new operating model”
NH:
He’s been trying to do it for some time.
PM:
If you remember – way back – he ran the Indie and the Mirror.
PM:
He was the first one to introduce a hot desk policy in newspapers.
PM:
Oh and he was going to get hacks to write across titles.
PM:
Never worked.
PM:
Express and Star have tried it. And it doesn’t work.
PM:
Hacks have loyalty to their own masthead, department, etc.
PM:
Neil’s checking whether we ahve any comment on Mecon
NH:
nothing in that inbox
NH:
not sure anyone cares anymore
NH:
sorry
NH:
nowt
NH:
the world does not want to know about Monty brave new newspaper world
PM:
hhmm
PM:
lets mvoe on
PM:
Try and spell Murphy
11:39AM
PM:
What was that you were looking at earlier
PM:
Findel
NH:
The ultimate dash for trash stock – now come back to earth
PM:
We’ve had fun wit this before, no?
NH:
We have
PM:
Look, in the middle of April this was quoted at 86p
PM:
It then zoomed to 161p
PM:
And where is it now?
NH:
90p
PM:
ha
PM:
What were its sites??
NH:
very good that one
PM:
Piano hands?
NH:
trading now worse than expected and it needs a rescue rights issue.
NH:
can’t publish results
PM:
oh dear
PM:
On one level this is very strange.
PM:
After all this is the company that offers you bubble wrap that never runs out
NH:
I have on Finde;
PM:
Got any comment?
NH:
more widely followed the Mecom
NH:
Following this morning’s update, we have downgraded estimates by 17% and 30% for FY2009E and FY2010E
respectively, but the statement also contained some good news in that the company’s bad debt position is in
line with expectations and the healthcare business continues to trade strongly. However, Findel’s weaker
trading combined with its heavy debt burden has placed the company in an uncertain position vis a vis its
ongoing financing and until this has been resolved, we expect the risk of financial distress to continue to weigh
on the share price.
NH:
that’s from Cazenove
NH:
Findel’s shares have performed relatively strongly over the last month as confidence has grown that a recurrence of last
year’s bad debt surprise had been avoided and this has indeed been confirmed by today’s statement. However, we
believe there will be some disappointment regarding the downgrades to estimates albeit they have been caused in part
by better than expected payments from Findel’s customers rather than worse.
NH:
There will also in our view be increased concern about the company’s level of debt (estimated at c. £350m at the year
end, representing 3.55x net debt: benchmark EBITDA) especially given the delay to the announcement of the company’s
results . Post our downgrades the shares are trading on a PER of 5.6x 2010E, an EV/EBITDA of 8x FY2010E and an
EV/Sales of 0.8x FY2010E. This is inexpensive in PER times, but expensive on EV multiples reflecting the group’s heavy
debt burden. Concerns over the gearing and uncertainty over a possible refinancing will in our view continue to weigh on
the share price until a further announcement is made.
NH:
Singer
NH:
Findel has been focused on reducing debt and a number of key strategic changes have been implemented over the last 12 months to this end. In particular, much tighter credit management and new customer lending have contributed towards control over bad debt provisions and also the strain on working capital from new loans. In light of discussions with lenders though, which have pointed towards changes to the terms of the RCF, including increasingly onerous costs. As part of the wider discussions the Board has therefore been considering the possibility of raising new equity. No final decision has been on this but Schroders and the Chairman (in aggregate c40% of the register), have indicated initial support for a rights issue.
NH:
Management has also indicated that PBT for the year will be at the lower end of the range of expectations, and therefore in the order of £38-40m PBT (vs SCMe £42m PBT), although bad debt ratios have been controlled bang in line with expectations, driven mainly by weak sales in Home Shopping (lower recruitment and weak backdrop) and weak sales in Education (a recent trend as public sector funding concerns have increased). Healthcare has performed strongly, albeit press stories have recently indicated plans to sell this. Trading so far in the new financial year has broadly mirrored the trends experienced in the year just ended (HS -4%, ES -4%, H +15%). Our current year forecast (vs SCMe £43m PBT) assume similar or slightly worse top line assumptions, so margin guidance will be key to determining the shape of estimates this year. At the very least interest costs on a continuing basis seem likely to be higher.

Given the revelations about a possible rights issue, coupled with a slight miss on the forecasts, we expect the shares to come under pressure today.

NH:
and Seymour Pierce
NH:
The company confirms that with its high debt it is reviewing the desirability of putting
certain of its debt facilities onto a longer term basis and having to revise the terms of its
credit facilities. In addition, it is considering the possibility of an equity issue with its
bankers.
The company also gave a trading update and states that 2008/9 pre-tax profits will be
at the lower end of expectations. As flagged up in our flash at the beginning of April, it
appears sales have slowed in the education business but sales and the bad debt
position in the home shopping business appear to be in line with expectations. We are
downgrading our recommendation from Buy to Hold (Hold from 2nd February). The
stock has had a fantastic run since our upgrade at the beginning of February, up by
over 150% and the stock is now more fairly rated at c.5x earnings. We will be reviewing
our forecasts.
11:43AM
NH:
Paul on phone
NH:
don’t think it is a hot call
NH:
lunch could be off though
NH:
no
NH:
it’s a builders quote
NH:
more work at Chateau Murphy
PM:
Sorry — just having to order a scaffolding tower
NH:
what
NH:
are you an MP
NH:
has that gone through expenses?
PM:
Not going hang myself
NH:
I wasn’t worried about that
NH:
I thought you might have a moat
PM:
Builders rendering the back wall.
PM:
I dont even have a garden
PM:
Anyway — do note they were rinding up to offer a cheaper price than the one they quoted kate
NH:
sell builders’ merchants
NH:
HSS have undercut someone
NH:
Travis perkins possibly
NH:
price war
NH:
Fitz we are coming to that
NH:
one mo
11:47AM
PM:
Sorry about that
NH:
miners
NH:
Fitz wants to talk about the miners
PM:
Fine
PM:
Miners it is
NH:
dominating the FTSE leaderboard this morning
NH:
partly because of this Goldman note
NH:
getting very excited about China
NH:
unlike Paul
NH:
our resident China bear
NH:
A Chinese-led recovery sees bottlenecks re-emerge
Datapoints from China, and a more bullish outlook from our colleagues in
the region, prompt us to analyse which metals might soonest experience
capacity constraints. We believe that GDP growth close to, or slightly
above our Economists’ current forecasts, could result in copper and iron
ore suffering capacity constraints by 2011. In contrast, nickel and
aluminium do not appear likely to reach capacity constraints until 2017.

NH:
Weighting valuation framework to reflect looming capacity issues
We are re-weighting our valuation framework, favouring companies with
significant exposure to commodities with looming supply constraints. This
replaces a weighting which aimed to avoid companies with balance sheet
risk. We also introduce a mid-cycle valuation component to the framework,
which leads us to increase our price targets substantially.
NH:
Risk posed by our expectation of a 2H copper price pullback
Most stocks in our coverage have some potential upside to our 12-month
price targets. However, very short term, our commodity analysts expect
slowing Chinese imports of copper (and other base metals), and
consequently lower base metals prices. We would regard any share price
weakness on the back of weaker base metals prices as a buying
opportunity ahead of longer-term price recovery.
NH:
Anglo American our Conviction Buy; Gem Diamonds to Sell
We forecast rising EBITDA margins for Anglo American, driven by rising
prices and exposure to high-margin businesses. This supports our
12-month price target of 2,491p (53% potential upside). Lacklustre
performance (+2% ytd) suggests the stock has been overlooked in the dash
for exposure to the mining sector. We upgrade Anglo to Buy from Neutral
and add it to the Conviction List. We also upgrade Kazakhmys and Vedanta
to Buy from Neutral. Xstrata and Namakwa Diamonds remain Buys.
Boliden is upgraded to Neutral (off the Conviction Sell List), while Rio and
Norsk are upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
NH:
We remain sellers of Lonmin, Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum. In our
view, they already price in a sustained capacity reduction in the PGM
industry. We downgrade Gem Diamonds to Sell (from Neutral) after its
recent strong performance and our expectation of a delayed recovery in
rough diamond prices.

PM:
ta for that
Rio Tinto (RIO:LSE): Last: 2,765, up 108 (+4.06%), High: 2,817, Low: 2,722, Volume: 2.00m
BHP Billiton (BLT:LSE): Last: 1,435, up 38 (+2.72%), High: 1,443, Low: 1,408, Volume: 2.76m
Fresnillo (FRES:LSE): Last: 679.50, up 39.5 (+6.17%), High: 680.00, Low: 637.00, Volume: 386.24k
Xstrata (XTA:LSE): Last: 658.00, up 20 (+3.13%), High: 667.50, Low: 646.50, Volume: 4.91m
Anglo American (AAL:LSE): Last: 1,620, up 40 (+2.53%), High: 1,626, Low: 1,585, Volume: 3.40m
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp (ENRC:LSE): Last: 595.50, up 37.5 (+6.72%), High: 606.50, Low: 566.50, Volume: 894.74k
PM:
Actually, here’s a treat
NH:
go on
PM:
Some fantasy M&A
PM:
seen this from Nomura

??

PM:
We upgraded Anglo American to Buy from Neutral
at the end of April (see our note, From deep value
to early recovery, dated 28 April). Recent new
financing facilities and cash proceeds from selling
shares in AngloGold have removed immediate
refinancing concerns. We think cash burn at De
Beers and Anglo Platinum have been overplayed
by the market, while the group’s current ‘identity
crisis’ could eventually leave it vulnerable to
takeover, in our view.
We explore the logic and
timing behind a potential all-share offer from
Xstrata and find it compelling.
PM:
Summary

Refinancing concerns have abated, with $4.7bn in
new financing secured plus $1.8bn cash proceeds
from selling AngloGold shares this year. We
forecast year-end net debt/EBITDA for 2009
(including De Beers) at a reasonable 1.9x.

We address cash burn and refinancing concerns
at De Beers and Anglo Platinum, which we believe
have been overplayed.

We explore the possibility of an all-share offer
from Xstrata for Anglo as the surprise M&A event
of the year (see unsubstantiated press
speculation, Financial Times, 19 May

NH:
unsubstantiated rumours!
NH:
how very dare they
PM:
NH:
anyway
NH:
Nomura aren’t the first to do this
NH:
Merrill ran the numbers on an Anglo/Xstrata combo yesterday
NH:
and came to much the same conclusion
NH:
big costs savings etc, but said it wouldn’t happen because the new management team at Anglo weren’t interested
PM:
hmmm
PM:
so why is everyone speculating about this
NH:
not sure
NH:
perhaps people are bored
NH:
and it doesn’t really seem to have helped either share price
PM:
The story was around a couple of years back
NH:
but there is no way Cynthia Carrol at Anglo’s is going to do this deal
NH:
she would probably not get the top job
NH:
and wants to leave her mark
NH:
and complete the restructuring job she has started
PM:
fair enough
11:52AM
PM:
I suppose we should have a quick look at British Airways
PM:
annual results out this morning and they have not gone down well
NH:
no, BA share price losing altitude
NH:
actually it has recovered
NH:
gained altitude now
NH:
down 3.5p at 159p
PM:
Hit 154 earlier
NH:
and more than anything else that probably reflects the complete and utter lack of any guidance, anything forward looking, or anything useful in the figures
PM:
NH:
just a summary of a miserable year
PM:
so, nothing on pension, no outlook statement and nothing on the Iberia bid talks
PM:
great title tho
NH:
RESULTS REFLECT BLEAK TRADING ENVIRONMENT
PM:
to the release
NH:
(scripted just for u Monkey)
NH:
well, there are a few lines here and there
NH:
but nothing substantive
NH:
actually the outlook statement is pretty glum as you would expect
NH:
The industry continues to face very difficult trading conditions, with considerable uncertainty over the likely timeframe of the global economic downturn.
Current levels of traffic volume and yield have not improved over the last quarter of last year.

We have decided not to issue any new guidance for the half year or the full year because of the difficulty in forecasting revenues.
We anticipate that there will be some additional offset from fuel costs and we will deliver further cost reductions from capacity and other cost saving measures to mitigate the revenue deterioration

PM:
so no guidance then
NH:
er, no and that has disappointed the green shootists
PM:
and what have the analysts made of it all?
NH:
not much, there is nothing to analyse
NH:
just the body lanugage of the miserable CEO
NH:
Results were in line with expectations, but the Q4 revenue performance was if anything slightly worse than we expected. Given the present uncertainties, management refrained from revising guidance and we see no
reason to change our below consensus forecasts. In the absence of new information on the pension deficit and the merger with Iberia and little sign that there is any stabilisation in trading we expect the shares to drift lower.
NH:
that’s from Cazenove
PM:
ha
PM:
that’s basically says don’t bother with the numbers they are waste of time
NH:
and here’s Citi
NH:
No change in negative outlook but more vague — BA sees no signs of economic recovery, which is more negative than the more hopeful remarks on ‘stability’ provided by Air France-KLM 2 days ago. Chairman commented that the
recovery is taking longer than initially envisaged. No new guidance is being
issued, whereas previously BA indicated that 1H10 would be break-even at
operating level and revenue down by 5% for FY10. We expect a similar
operating loss in FY10. It is unclear if BA is withdrawing previous guidance.
Being in the middle of union negotiations, there is no incentive for
management to be positive. We expect capacity and cost reduction to be
stepped up.

 Iberia merger announcement still a few months away — In note 21 of the
accounts, BA states that the merger will take several months to conclude.
Unusually, there is no mention of the Iberia merger in the main body of the
press release, which suggests it is not top of the agenda. We already expect the
merger to be delayed until the individual companies complete their crisis
restructurings and until the pension deficit and remedies are known later this
year.

British Airways (BAY:LSE): Last: 159.00, down 3.8 (-2.33%), High: 161.00, Low: 147.90, Volume: 14.08m
NH:
doors to manual
NH:
because
NH:
it is time for small cap corner
11:56AM
PM:
hooray
PM:
muppet time
PM:
what have we got today for the readers?
NH:
well, rumours that a bid for a company called RWE
NH:
is off
PM:
off?
NH:
that’s the ticker
NH:
Renewable Energy
PM:
ah
PM:
Stock is down 8.25p at 45
PM:
So something is off
PM:
RERWE.l
NH:
oh, also been looking at what Muppet investors buy
PM:
oh yeah
NH:
muppet investors buy banks
PM:
obviously
NH:
and then they sell banks
PM:
really?
NH:
week in week out
PM:
do you have any evidence for this?
NH:
I do, as it happens
NH:
but I don’t want to offend anyone
PM:
of course not
NH:
sorry if anyone is a client of TD Waterhouse
NH:
look away now
NH:
their weekly update
NH:
London, 22nd May 2009 – Angus Rigby, Chief Executive Officer, TD Waterhouse comments: “Growing confidence in the markets’ recent rally continued to drive high volumes of trading this week. Buy trades outnumbered sells by 27% as financial stocks continued to lead trading activity with two thirds (66%) of overall top ten trades.
NH:
“The main contrast to this trend focused on Barclays, with sells in the bank up by 25% compared to last week’s buys. TD Waterhouse customers were possibly looking at the bank’s recent hike in share price as an opportunity to grab some profit. Shares in Barclays climbed steadily throughout the week to close at 294.75p on Tuesday following news that the banking giant is considering selling its asset management arm, Barclays Global Investors, for around £6.5bn. Overall trades in Barclays accounted for more than a fifth (21%) of all top ten trades and more than a quarter (28%) of the top ten sells in particular.
NH:
“Although our customers were keen to sell Barclays, they were in a buying mood when it came to Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group, which claimed 28% and 22% of the top ten buy trades, respectively. Customers may be hoping for possible future gains as talks of selling off the Government’s stakes in both banks are said to be underway much earlier than expected. Customers bought almost a third (32%) more trades in Lloyds than they sold as the 43% state-owned bank launched its £4bn rights issue, pricing new shares at 38.43p. The placing will mean existing shareholders will hold 0.6213 shares for each share already owned.

“Meanwhile, the insurance sector continues to thrive claiming more than a quarter of the total top ten trades (27%) excluding banking trades. Aviva accounted for more than half of all the top ten insurance sector trades (53%) after reaching a payout deal on two of its UK life funds. However, the funds’ one million policyholders stand to receive around half of the amount they had expected under the new orphan assets deal. The insurance giant is celebrating a recent upgrade from ratings agency Moody’s to Aa3 with an A1 on its guaranteed senior debt based on its strong franchises and good quality corporate bond portfolio.

NH:
Oh and muppets don’t like Johnston Press
NH:
not sure why
NH:
but they don’t like it
NH:
“Finally, newcomer Johnstone Press has crept into the top ten sells this week as its share price continues to fluctuate rapidly. Taking 12% of the top ten sells (excluding banking trades), the newspaper publisher’s shares wobbled after announcing that operating profits for 2009 will be nearer the lower end of expectations.”
PM:
time for H&M Capital to go long of Johnston Press then??
NH:
hmmm, not sure
NH:
newspaper
NH:
£450m of debt
PM:
regional newspapers at that
NH:
needs new covenants
NH:
failed to sell its Irish assets
NH:
one failed rights issue behind it
NH:
is there anything I have forgotton
PM:
no….
Johnston Press (JPR:LSE): Last: 21.50, down 0.25 (-1.15%), High: 22.00, Low: 18.75, Volume: 1.57m
PM:
I’m with the retail punters on Johnston
NH:
are you>
NH:
is that a sell on JPR
PM:
oh, i dont know — seems far too dangerous to play
NH:
request above for the Goldman note on steel
NH:
which is very, very bullish
NH:
they see green shoots everywhere
NH:
we see only weeds
NH:
but it takes two to make a market
12:04PM
NH:
Improving economic indicators point to recovery potential
Further improvement in the momentum of our Global Leading Indicator,
the recent upgrade to our Chinese GDP forecast by our Economists and
supportive commentary from companies regarding the end of the
destocking cycle all reinforce our view of a 2H09 improvement in operating
conditions for the European steel sector. We have assessed China’s
increasing importance to the global steel industry and the likely trajectory
of the steel market recovery. Led by China, we estimate that the global
steel industry could recover to production levels seen pre-recession by
2011, and that the industry could be close to full capacity by 2013/14. As
such, we believe European steel stocks offer compelling value and
exposure to cyclical recovery through operating leverage, with the
industry set to benefit from a strong resumption of Chinese growth.
NH:
Revised valuation approach reflects less BS risk, recovery potential
Given improving fundamentals, we adjust our valuation framework and
make two key changes. First, we have reduced our trough asset-based
weighting, reflecting improved access to equity and credit markets and
hence decreasing balance sheet risk. Secondly, we have revised our
multiples weightings to 50%/50% 12-month forward/mid-cycle for the
carbon steel companies (60%/40% for the stainless steel companies due to
weaker fundamentals), from 70%/30% previously, reflecting our increasing
confidence in earnings recovery potential. We see 26% average potential
upside to our Buy-rated stocks (68% for the sector to mid-cycle valuations).
NH:
Rating changes: VOES to Buy, VLLP to Neutral, OUT1V to Sell
We upgrade Voestalpine to Buy from Neutral: the company offers the
greatest combined operating and financial leverage in the sector in our
view. Vallourec is taken off the Conviction Buy List and is downgraded to
Neutral on valuation grounds and late-cycle product exposure. Outokumpu
is downgraded to Sell from Neutral, as we believe overcapacity and lack of
supply discipline will limit significant stainless pricing improvements in
the medium term. ArcelorMittal remains our top pick; we believe it has the
best balance of risk/reward and product and geographical exposures.
PM:
Goodness what’s that?
NH:
that’s the goldman bull note on steel
NH:
like their mining note
NH:
China to save the world
NH:
pull us out of the economic do doo
12:05PM
PM:
Before we go…
PM:
Neil has just mentioned sterling
PM:
What’s happening?
NH:
strong
NH:
Two fingers to S&P
PM:
Quote?
NH:
almost got to £1.59
NH:
currently $1.587
NH:
and against the euro
NH:
0.8799
NH:
gilts falling though
NH:
yield on 10yr 3.719
12:08PM
PM:
right — we are done
PM:
Thanks for all your comments
PM:
Sorry if we were too rude on the retail punting sidee
PM:
Are we done Neil?
NH:
almost, we can’t finish without mentioning this
NH:
Rockhopper exploration
NH:
looking for oil and has around the Falklands
NH:
and it has found some
NH:

* New Competent Persons Report
* 8 oil prospects included – total P50 1 billion barrels recoverable
* Well 14/5-1A now classified by RPS Energy as a gas discovery
* Contingent Gas Resource declared
* Rig market continues to improve

Rockhopper Exploration plc (“Rockhopper”) (AIM: RKH) the North Falkland Basin
oil and gas explorer, is pleased to update shareholders with regard to ongoing
activities in its exploration licences.

A new Competent Persons Report compiled by RPS Energy (the “CPR”), the first
update since the time of admission to AIM in 2005, has been received.

PM:
Hmm — people have been finding oil and gas off the falklands since I first became a market reporter
PM:
never actually seen any come out of the ground tho
PM:
But, hey, who am i to spoil a good story
PM:
thank you
PM:
have a good weekend
NH:
have a good bank holiday weekend
PM:
Monkey!
NH:
a yellow card beckons
NH:
repeat offender
PM:
nah!
PM:
I just have to get the drinks organised
NH:
constant backchat to the ref
PM:
Seeya
NH:
bye
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