If you went home on Friday thinking swine flu was the piggie equivalent of a bad cold, you may be as surprised as we were at the speed with which the next big pandemic scare rolled out at the weekend.
As the FT reports on Monday, governments and health authorities worldwide are on alert for a possible influenza pandemic after the death toll from a new strain of swine flu in Mexico reached 81 on Sunday, as 20 people were confirmed infected in the US and 10 New Zealand students who recently visited Mexico, while suspected cases have been reported in Canada, Europe and Brazil.
The World Health Organisation said it was co-ordinating a global response to human cases of the influenza, which is basically a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type-A influenza that regularly causes outbreaks among the animals. US health officials, meanwhile, have warned that the number of cases is likely to expand.
Bloomberg reports Monday that the number of US swine flu cases is likely to expand, according to Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a White House briefing on Sunday. While those instances were mild and no one died, the disease may become “more severe,” he said.
In New York, where eight cases were confirmed at a private school, Mayor Michael Bloomberg is keeping city schools open and urging residents to wash their hands frequently, stay home if ill and avoid the hospital unless very sick. In Mexico, according to the FT, authorities declared a state of alert in and around Mexico City, a city of about 20m inhabitants, where the outbreak is centred. They have cancelled all public events over the next few days, including ministerial speaking engagements, rock concerts and even football matches.
So what exactly is swine flu? According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, swine flu is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type-A influenza that regularly causes outbreaks among the animals. Three main human flu strains — H3N2, H1N1 and type B – cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year in seasonal epidemics, according to the WHO. Pandemics occur when a novel influenza A-type virus, to which almost no one has natural immunity, emerges and begins spreading.
On the question of the flu’s broader economic and financial impact, news reports in a nasty taste of possible things to come, are picking up on every imagineable angle, from the decline in airline stocks to the impact on the pork industry worldwide and on corn and soybean futures amid concerns that swine flu may reduce animal feed demand. Reuters, meanwhile, is carrying a fact box on the impact on Asian industry if the flu virus spreads.
But just like the last big scare back in 2002, over the SARS virus, when companies were warned to prepare for the impact of an influenza pandemic, there are, of course, opportunities for the opportunistic. Companies that stand to benefit from an outbreak of swine flu range from pharmaceutical manufacturers to makers of rubber gloves, masks and other protective clothing. On the pharma front, some focus has turned on Monday to the prospects for Relenza, a drug that its makers and investors are hoping will take share from the more established influenza drug, Tamiflu.
However, on the financial and economic front, a pandemic is exactly what battered world stock markets and industries don’t need. Already, according to reports on Monday, the fears have hit stocks, futures and various currencies in key markets. And big companies such as Sony, Hitachi, Panasonic and Samsung are already moving to restrict travel by employees to Mexico, according to Bloomberg. The Mexican peso, meanwhile, slid nearly 4 per cent against the dollar at the weekend and further on Monday, on concerns that the flu outbreak will deepen the country’s economic slump.
Airline stocks, however, have been at the frontline of the commercial impact on Monday, with shares tumbling both in Asian and European trade on concerns that reduced travel will dent earnings — Lufthansa was down some 14 per cent while British Airways was off some 7 per cent. Airlines are now screening for swine flu symptoms while struggling to stick to their schedules, reports Bloomberg.
US hog futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, meanwhile, could also be further affected on Monday after falling to two-month lows on Friday on nervousness around the disease. The US pork industry moved aggressively to quell consumer fears and protect an already weak pork market. There doesn’t appear to be evidence yet tying the flu to human contact with pigs, but as the WSJ reports on Monday, Russia has banned meat imports from Mexico, several US states and nine Latin American nations.
While the US National Pork Producers Council insists that pork is “safe to eat”, however, consumers may take a lot of convincing if there are many more cases in coming days.
For more fear and loathing on Monday, see the CDC site, link below, or WHO’s comprehensive rundown on swine flu.
Related links:
Key facts about swine flu influenza – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Swine influenza – statements and information – WHO
Swine flu triggers alerts worldwide – FT
Mexican peso fall on swine flu concerns – Bloomberg
Corn, soybeans drop as swine flu may reduce animal feed demand – Bloomberg
Pork industry moves to quell flu fears – WSJ