UBS is reporting an unexpected rise in March in its global growth surprise index:
According to UBS that small little uptick at the end of the chart is the index’s most impressive three-week gain since last August.
As they state:
Global growth outcomes have generated upside surprises to consensus forecasts over the past three weeks. Our global growth surprise index moved higher in late March, staging its most impressive 3-week gain since last August (see first chart below). While the recent rally in global equity markets has been largely driven by a favourable response from investors to recent policy initiatives from the US, this improvement in the global macroeconomic picture (compared with expectations) has been supportive as well.
Meanwhile, according to UBS, fuelling much of the upside element in the surprise index was better-than-expected data from the US and Japan. (That would be Japan’s positive surprises on machinery orders, tertiary sector output and consumer confidence – not exports, which fell nearly 50 per cent on the year in February).